Stocks Jump After Jobs Report… And China’s Big Opportunity 11/1/24
43:51 Share

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat and it's about the bottom line. Live from the new. York, washington votes in life for the.

Market site right here in the heart of new york cities times where this is fast money. Here's what's on tap, a big tech. Come back the mag seven ring in the turbulent week. This is start of a sustained strain for the group of the into the year. Or IT had fake designed to take your money stocks up despite a different jobs under the street, shocked by a weak employment report.

So why didn't the markets care? What does that mean for you out of next expect decision in the election? Also tonight, though, in shares, you're taking off on new hopes in the strike.

Super micros rough week gets even worse and truck media talking a third strake day of double digit decline. Have you bought everybody? And welcome to november.

I am bryan self, an informal tonight come of you life studio b, right here at the national dex, on your death tonight tim seymour, current final and carneglia. Julie, bill, welcome everybody. Great to be back or so.

Let's kick IT off here. There really are two big money stories that are happening right now, earnings and jobs. Let's start with the payroll number shocking the street.

The government saying only twelve thousand jobs or adding october that my friends, the worst jobs number since the pandemic, but investors apparently didn't care market today higher across the board, maybe on hopes the federal cut rates again, we're going to find out your other big story was an earnings, a huge week in the books and more to come. In fact, nearly one in five S N, B. companies.

We will release their numbers next week. And about to heard about selection, get heard about that. We ve got the selection thing on tuesday which could lead in to wednesday, you know from the you would not know we're going to talk about all of the bother the way.

Be sure to tune into our coverage context. Bro and I will be hosting the critical hours from midnight to five bm on wednesday. Ning, that's actually when we might see a result and maybe a big move in the market. The overnight session are then you've got the fed next week sort of the pen ultimate decision of the year that fed meeting is on thursday. So tim, let's talk about all of the jobs earnings, the fed, the election, maybe something else.

but away germs of teasing next week. I can't wait to hang out with youtube, I at midnight.

because you .

be with this for the whole exciting. If you think about the payer number, a payer number, by now, you've heard twelve thousand jobs were added, yet the market relayed, so no fear of growth and more. I think perversely interestingly, you saw the treasury market is so yields continued to go higher.

So other words, this wasn't a fall through from the treasury market. The said, oh my goodness, there's no growth. In fact, we're going up to cut feds going to be cutting you the short end and the long and close IT effectively foregone half months.

You're not at four thirty eight clothes at the high yield on the ten year. And IT did not respond to A A labor number, which apparently everybody has flagged to hurricane bombing strike. No one's too concerned.

Wages were actually higher. If you actually look at the work week, it's a pretty soloman. If you look at a point one percent unemployment rate, um IT tells you we're essentially near a historic clothes.

So I think the number on the headline was confusing even though the politicians seemed like the ability to talk about this one going into an election. IT was a wild number where the market did not care if get back to the leadership. We saw the recovery today across the tech sector. I think we're going to continue to have IT. November is that month and IT was is in a very interesting day.

Yeah, I mean, here, as I tweet out earlier, the haters love the number because they've been waiting for some bad news. I just said, basically, tickets as we ve got to your point, that the hurricanes, the storms strikes. Yeah, a lot of other stuff.

The market, the bond market really didn't move. The stock market did. okay. Should this change our view of what the fed may do on thursday of next week?

I don't think so. I think that you know this is such an outlier that I don't think that gives you any information at all. So I think that I mean, we you were here, look at a mester.

Oh, no, you weren't here. Two days ago, we had learned a meter on he was talking about a twenty five basis point cut that would have been, you know, she's none of the first right next week. So I don't really make much. I know IT is father for political discourse, but I don't think we can make much of IT. It's interesting, I think that um what did I agree with absolutely everything he said, including the twelve to twelve thirty.

I go say that's the right call at the .

first APP now with brian then .

going to sleep so I next one O B, I is going be good.

T, V, I know. OK, so we got .

the jobs number doesn't Better. And I think the show well, because it's important.

we do focus on that. We do not know what jobs. But IT ended up being, I thought we would see how how should we adjust IT for these hurricanes and how should we just for going, I don't know, is where I ended up with that.

So I just sort of discard the whole piece of information. But I think the enthusiasm over amazon and some of the other tech names, I think that would also help the market today. And therefore, the tenor.

and I think that's the question, is, how much of this is due to the hurricane bowing? Or do we actually have a weakening labour market, which I don't think anybody can, I confirmative vely say at this point.

more, more numbers, even confirmation exactly, which is why I think .

this is is essentially being thrown out. But I think, if anything, that kind of was a positive thing for the fed, where they were getting a lot of flag for sing. Okay, maybe they started cutting rates too soon, but then you have a jobs report like this. And so I think that actually takes a little bit pressure off for them, get changes what they are going to be doing when they meet next week. I still expect that they argue to be cutting, but I don't think .

this is something that you can really use to kind of write her hard on.

At the end of the day, I don't I at ric, I didn't red you .

is not what do we call for quartz ia? See july. I didn't for you job number matter to put any stock in .

this report, right, because you know of all of the effects that we've talked about. The one thing that I did notice is that we continue to be in this wage up growth trend. We had a real bottom in the summer, and it's just kind of quietly picked its way up.

And I think that is the one thing that could give a little bit of noise to the fed discussion. I don't think that changes anything as far as their decision, but I think IT will come out in the minutes that there will be a little bit more concerned about wage growth pressure. We're seeing IT mostly on the good side, less on the services side, which is great news because that the services has been the place where we have has been more persistent. But I think like longer term, it's not really gonna have any kind of impact materially.

yeah. And I often tim said that the stock market is not the economy. S A reflects earnings and reflects parts of the economy. But just because amazon's numbers are good doesn't mean the macro economy necessarily has to be good to families can manage its business that well. So do you agree, I think with your friend Karen, that I was really the amazon, the earnings of the world that's going to matter, not the jobs.

Now I think it's both. I think there's there's an element of today's action that is really important, that is I think people feel these the does not need to post there gona go twenty five. They have to go twenty five.

But the sense was that we had had at least data that indicated and some stickiness and inflation that the fed could actually soft IT up. I think they're been periods where the market has been concerned about that. If you look at the rates markets again, I mean, we close on the highs and hill there.

There's nothing about the economy. And by the way, I actually think that the move in in the bond market, delt, that moved down to three sixty on the ten year and this move back up is a really assessment of the economy, not of the fed and not in the longer term of the U. S. Credit worthiness and the issuance dynamic.

Even we talk about that all the time and we should be talking about you. The go twenty five have to do anything. Well, they don't have to.

But I think based upon how they have guided IT us and based upon the the numbers that we've had and that we are still, I would say, restrictive, i'm not looking to see them do more than they need to do. But I think the market two weeks ago was concerned that the fed could posit who really cares? I don't know.

IT doesn't back to earnings. And yes, those are strong numbers by amazon and google and meta. But I I do think today was some sense that actually the economics is okay. Well.

we got to move on the big tech. But very quickly, the three of you at the same time, we raise your energy. The fed will cut twenty five .

basis points next thursday elections. There we ve got four for IT that's the radio .

like I don't know that's why I said hi there .

yeah so if you're on the radio, thank you for listening IT was four of I abstained congress from gum right? That deeper in of the big tech today was a good day today, but in overall, rather tough week. And here's your random but interesting state of the day.

Thank you. With this, we drop the deck, just broke a seven week winning streak. Maybe more proof that Marks simply cannot go up every single day or every single week. But today some big names did go up.

We just talked about amazon closing, new record high, microsoft, google n nudging higher and even beaten down and your old until rose after last night night results, something we hit on a lot last night, not participating. Apple IT not just declined. IT was actually the second worst performer in the doubt today.

A lot of people maybe kind of underwhelmed about their new apple intelligence AI product and take a look at the other names that did airport this week. Alphabet ended up three a half percent following their numbers on tuesday, met up on the four mention microsoft down for the week, but not a big bad care, and we should say almost univerSally. The numbers pretty well received.

yes. Then go out and also add a netflix, which had huge numbers. But the amazon was a really, really good conference call and google tell yet there was a lot to like.

Meta, for me, is my largest position. A little disappointing, but I thought the numbers were very good. And you know it's all in the the spend that sort come back to that again, again.

But I think what concerns you about what was a didn't didn't know maybe hit earlier in the week on the show, what didn't please care in finerman about the meta numbers?

What was there? And for yourself, the third person .

I find that almost impossible to SHE finds that impossible to do.

Yes, just the, you know.

to spend again, even though they are being a little more they are being a little bit more efficient on their expenses, but I think we'd like to have a little more certainty there. But on the march, and I don't think that matters, I would not .

change my position body to comment, by the way.

the new zc oc bird with the hair.

hair going crazy, he's surfin. He's doing this stuff. He's kind of .

gone still kind .

of a gig .

easy ring. Yeah no, I didn't say. And no, no is like he's the .

guys he would have .

to be made on the innovation .

and Marks out here part. It's actually because you kind of look at this new suck and you think, is he going to run the company in a different way? He kind of was on his backyard.

S A little bit, little bit more. Now he's punching. Now he literally is punching. He's taken Judith, who is doing these things like because you wonder if he's going to be a more aggressive CEO take more risks that might benefit. I have been taking risk here long time.

You don't think the metaverse and changing the name of metting going on and on that was in a time I think he's been aggressive from day one. That's part of the success here. I really do.

We ve got to get, if people don't know, we ve got next block. Let's get a picture of the new zc. We have to use side by side comparison.

So let's tie all of this together, not sucks hair, jobs and markets in a nice little boat to walking in our friend Stephen and writing he is chief investor strategist, chief economist at city wealth. And i'm just based on our conversation before the show, Stephen, okay. I'm guessing you'd make IT unanimous five or five rays. Your hand jobs never didn't mean .

anything meaningless. I mean, what they come? Well, I will talk about market and but just think about this.

Five hundred and twelve thousand people said that they couldn't work because of hurricane fect, the sorts of weather related displacements. So how could hiring be usual in the month? That number is ten fold.

What IT wasn't september. It's you nearly ten fold what it's been. There is a picture in october of years past. So every time we've seen this the following month, you get a correction upwards and maybe you could put both months together. But in reality, we can't measure the economy that well in here.

okay. So then how many months with Stephen to ask for to themselves? Third, how many months with Stephen writing in your team at city wealth? How many months would you need to have confirmation of any kind of jobs .

for four months.

three quarters worth of data?

something. But I mean, like the big picture, we went from the rebound from the pandemic to under two hundred thousand per month. We were doing six million than three million, then under two million.

This is a snowing game for the labor market and an accelerating game for corporate profits. Mean, last year was loud for most companies, negative seven percent for E, P. S.

Outside of mag seven. And that's why we are gaining. No, you lish, I am. We are. Look, you know, this has been a big couple of years, were overweight global equities, overweight the U. S.

By about six percent, underweight the rest of the world by about one and a half percent, and how far that will go us. Security of out perform the world by fifteen percent. That's not that bigger thing, but it's been fifteen years of IT, right? So the potential for us with non us stocks at thirteen times earnings where twenty two we've got higher expectations, yeah.

I think that's A N time's international expert, but I think this is a fantastic point you're making and that it's hard not to be bullish on america. I've been over in europe covering your energy story. They pay three to five times what we pay even x the north in pipeline regulation over there, the entire german dex, their dow Jones is worth less than in video it's hard not in china is will talk later in the show about china I ordered how much the rest the world's capital saying, you know what, i've got to go to the .

united states yeah but that's again in fifteen years of this know three american companies worth the entirety of asia or the entirety of europe. And our gains in market cap have been growing faster than eps has gone up. We are now performing on learnings.

Our evaluations are performing even more. So that's something in the event that if we were to go down the road of continued video, I think that's onna depend on the outcome of the election, congress, what exactly we do after next week. But if we were to go down and be able to ease the dollar comes off, we can see what happens. And I can can be a period .

of some out performance. I'm get the excited listen to you because you're not saying something that I think maybe you're saying, which is that you're pretty boys on corporate profits running around. So we've got some inflection.

We didn't have IT. We now have an environment which isn't there are not necessarily labor headwinds. It's it's slower growth, but it's still growth and that you combine with with the earnings power. IT sounds to me like we should stay along this market.

Will think about last quarter. We've not done with this quarter. You know tech was the third fastest screwing earning sector. You know, again, we had three that we're above twenty. We had nine out of eleven sectors start to grow earnings again, and we have records for the next two years in our suits.

Let me ask you about productivity. Is that was that where IT comes from? Where does this earnings growth?

absolutely. Again, we had a productivity growth is strengthening. Again, IT will go on forever.

But what happened in the pandemic, we again recovered very sharply. And services related hiring, which is not mechanist. It's not automated.

Its very head consents tive, a typical large restaurant, has more people working forward than a big warehouse or even A A manufacturing company. So by twenty, twenty two, and the fed was tiny thing, the labor markets incredibly strong. That was when we were getting the pandemic services recovery. Productivity was thinking, and a lot of negative effects from fed the tightening were actually hidden beneath the surface into twenty twenty three.

Somebody get this man and eagle and eagle, he's so pro. I want to eagle on his shoulder and an american flag top. Pat, okay, we get pigeons.

I don't think you go. I'm not sure we got got some eagles. But but but I I like the bullish take on the markets on the united states, and it's been over a decade long run.

Stephen writing, great. Thank you and your team and city. Well, appreciate IT. Thank you, cording, or you is bullish on this finnish r writing here.

We obvious ly are I really think there's a lot that, that setting up for a good end of the year here. I mean, you are saying that profitability is expected to be accelerating or seeing the GDP is growing use of a lot of cashes on the sidelines right now. We do the election next week could actually does tend to be a good thing for the market is not something you should have trade on.

But I think all of those things are actually setting up for a good end of the year. And tech has kind of been sitting on the sidelines last couple months. Years people have been rotating out of IT, but I don't think that trade is over actually starting to see a little bit that come back here. So I think you .

absolutely you want to stay. You made a lot of people happy, bullish. Take on the rest the year.

We shall see, alright, a block down, but we are not done coming up. We're going to talk energy, what axon and check on did today. I hadn't going in different direct plus a big move from one big name in eliza. Yeah anybody member that atheism at A.

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat, and it's about the bottom line from the new york exchange and washington. Your votes novey MBC.

Now I walk back the biggest of bigger il, both reporting the results today, of course, talking x on mobile in several. Now these companies often get lumped together, but today they ten pulled the journey and they went their separate ways. Exxon ending the day lower, several higher. No, on the year old tim x on out, coming by about twelve percent, their production of the premium chavez on as well coming up your take on one both .

either I think it's the case of the outperformance of axon was a higher bark going into the sheep run has under performed. I for sure around here IT is the sea and bless up um IT is a case where also their free casual was extraordinary. And so if you combine that wish, upstream growth, which is where they have been lagging.

And let's not forget there's a battle for this, this geona asset that is the most exciting oil production asset in the world brand. You know all about this. I mean, this is a case where a chebron who purchased has for that asset, and there's been some question about what's going on.

I think ultimately, they do get that asset and and again, share IT with x on. But I I think that the story for integrated right now, especially the biggest in the world, is free cash flow and that these businesses are run so that they are more efficient and it's not growth at all costs. I think it's I think they are both all weather stocks at this point. I do like chavez over exxon, but I wouldn't be jumping out of exxon on today.

We've got to worry though, I think a little bit, tim, about china. We ve got OPEC exposed to meet in person in a month of planning to be there. We'll see if they do.

They are supposed to raise production. China's been a disaster. I mean, there's a you could make a real case for fifty dollar oil. And if and if you made that case, you wonder what that would mean for for these company .

ties and more if OPEC is raising production, is that I mean, ultimately, I believe based upon how they have been able to both have consensus and control and saudi, I obviously has the swing capacity, they bear the brunt. And this is a market chair game that they're trying to protect the market chair against the us. But I still think if they're is in production, they won't do IT at the expensive of the oil Price. If there's not the demand behind IT anything.

We also can forget that their break given Prices actually lower than this, even if oil does go lower, it's not necessarily a bad thing for these energy companies. They just had to become so much more efficient back in twenty twenty, and they're doing a much Better position at this point in time.

And I think when you look at both of these companies, they're coming into their earnings, both feeding expectations, but actually shove on is now trading below with historical averages. Axon, just to hire bar, like tim said, it's now trading above its historically averages. I think that's where some you see that movement today. But I think longer term, there is absolutely opportunity to regard this what happens with energy Prices. And also don't forget, without the tension in the middle east, there's also the chance energy Price to go higher.

I think we're just of one headline risk away from ten dollars.

I think Carry needs to talk about aconite because we know that energy.

the E N L energy is the E N L X eli X X energy is the x in my helm trade. And it's been a frustrating trade. I mean, you particularly looking at several nice move today.

Free cash low was a very substantial beat. Five and five billion. Wonder we looking for four, seven or so. However, this has been a frustrating, a frustrating acronym, a .

flipper. Give your .

self and break you. Not only frustrating .

acronis out there.

I got a ious point.

Here's the reality. There is a huge group of investors, particularly we talked about IT earlier investors in europe that either can't or in some cases are not allowed to buy willing gas stocks. They don't want to buy anything associated with oyl gas, carbon emissions, climate change. And so no matter how good these numbers are, you don't have the pool of buyers. I don't think and i'd like to here to take on this, that an apple would have you .

know well for sure. But also it's I mean, if you look at what has happened to I don't know where the energy trade now is in terms of the S N P.

But I mean, it's four k right? You will be seven.

twelve .

at .

peak.

only two thousand.

six the cries.

So that that is an extraordinary move, not in a good way, right? And yes, IT seems to keep going down and keep them out little bottom bottom. But that hasn't been the case. So it's frustrated. Yeah that mean the multiple here corneys.

right?

I M the absolute .

production cost number break even or probably in the thirties for some of the companies, but you do have to add in dividends. And and so the break even on the physical production, maybe thirty six are making that number up, but probably directly rect. But if you'd buy in these socks of the dividend, I think you do have to care where .

the Price of oil is going, what you do. And and I think current know IT because I look at the european and the greatest, and I look at total and their breaks events at thirty eight, you know, I look at bp, who's had actually really tough report in the last week or so. I like royal dutch.

I like total. I can make an argument, their break events even Better. But again, these are dividends that are safe.

You know, we don't get a lot of breaking news on friday afternoons. Thankfully.

we somebody trying to .

hide some this is some interesting news right now. We've got to the door. Jones industrial average is changed. And I know this is common. I know in video is entering the doubt.

really. Yeah, that is news. Showin .

Williams, the paint company also in the downed. And here's more important. Guess who show when Williams is painting out of the picture?

Intel in in video is replacing dell in the doll. So I mean, not replaced other. Sure replacing.

So dow chemical, it's known known as double, but the company is dw chemical is out of the dow Jones, a destroy average intel. And I don't know this off taught my head. I would love to know how long intel spent in the door.

Probably a long time intel is out in video and shown blimps are in tell. I know we don't care about that. I get IT, but this is a big move on a friday. We care about IT.

And I will though we just got done talking about exco on the time to buy axon was when axon was kicked out of the doubt. So I mean, I do think that these are the index and the pass of money that is tracking an index like the dough is very powerful. And to some extent, I do believe it's more impacted for an NVIDIA than I think IT is on the .

downside until how much money there was indexed to the dal. I I don't know either not .

it's not a lot and we know it's it's a headless people. Nobody trade in out july. Build the right nobody treat the doll is is a new thing for the most part.

It's what you know, mom and pop. No, it's sort of a benchmark trend. It's not a traders thing. I get IT, but I but when a company goes into the door, Jones industrial average is no denying, right?

It's like if you follow british soccer, if you get promoted up to what they call the premier league, that's a big deal. This is a big deal, I think, for a video, but maybe a bigger deal for either, sure, one, William, and and a bigger deal for intel, which thankfully, great teams got my year nineteen ninety nine. Intel has been in the doubt for twenty five years what I knock for intel.

But but we've Prices in the intel. And I I guess I get back to that exxon, which is that I think he was August twenty. Um I mean, that was the bottom for x on now .

it's not making the bottom for the well.

I IT very well could be. I think we had that conversation this week. Intel was a terrible story going into twenty four and in twenty four thousand, fifty eight percent. I mean, intel eviscerated so much capital. We know that he tells a bad story. We know that both active and pass with money have been avoiding obvious ly less passive because again, it's a lower index just as a function of how much it's gone down .

and it's waiting. So just one day, I just found out. So the there's a doll, a etf, thirty five point six billion. The spider, by comparison, five hundred ninety billion.

Yeah, it's small, I wonder. But I like him for two billion. You have a quick comment on this. I don't want to.

but I agree. I think it's it's much more meaningful what stock gets kicked out and really what stock goes in, right? It's not like that needs any more gold, but I think IT really is kind of an ale in the coffin of water for any kind of investor. It's just a really recognition that their business is just degraded to pretty extreme point.

And I think that's IT and we'll go on. I'm sure to do more on this maybe little bit later on the show. The breaking news, we just joined us in video and paint company showing liam s are now in the door, dow chemical and tell and I called the chemical but i'm trying to separate the two terms l out of the doll ending a twenty five year on the reality is it's embarrassing. Well, it's it's historic .

in its own way. It's symbolically historic. And again, within them, we can't knew that this has happened. But yet, why not put Robin around just how devastating this falls been for a great american company?

Yeah, really are well set, right? We've got a lot more to do her and fast money. We are back into.

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat, and it's about the bottom line. Live from the new york stock exchange sentences.

Go and wash your money. Your vote november fifth. C, N, B, C.

I will go back to fast money, one more check and how the markets into the day. And we did kick off the mountain in november in the Green. So marts rise non a lot because of two, eight, eight S P, five hundred four, tens of one percent.

And has that comp the big winner of the three of eight tens of one percent? Everybody is kind of blow and past that week october jobs number because yeah, the stuff we talked about at the top of the show overall though, a lot of a tough for week four tech and in fact, the as that snapping a seven week when streak right on deck is china uninvestigated long of you gold s dwarf with deal will join us to lay out what he expects from a critical meeting of china's big bosses next week. Dead interview with that try.

mr. Moment of fast catches us anytime on the go followed the fast money podcast. We're back right after this.

I walk back to fast to money. China expected to unveil a significant stimulus package next week, the announced when expected to come during its national people's congress standing committee meeting official name, which kicks off on monday. We talk about all of them why we care and make sense of a the world with neil long view, global managing director, a cbc contribute and expert on china strategy.

The word wik. I mean, I can't I can't to help me times i've said the words china and stimulus in the same sentence over the last fifteen to twenty years. IT hasn't seemed to matter long term. Will anything matter this time for in the economy that is so dependent on real estate and rates?

A good question, brand. Good to see. Listen, I think what we know is that there will be some significant announcement, uh, next week, probably november, the eight at the end of the national people's congresses in in committee meeting.

And I sort of look at this brand sort three three ways, scope, scale and timing on the scope here. I think to your point, what we're expecting out of this package is something to address local, a government debt, which we know is high and some support for the property sector. That's this code, largely what we've been saying.

What I haven't heard a lot about is something to help the consumer. So that is a concerned about. We respect to scale. Scale, I think, is where we may see a difference brand because there's been talk of of ten trillion R N B sort of hitting the street at some point. But the final question, the time in you, there's discussions about this rolling out over a period of time, five years. And so I think investors need to put the brakes here because this may not all come out uh, at once and is likely not going to what I consider to be uh, a stimulus is not gonna be that is gonna be more sort of addressing some of the the short term uh, structural issues in the economy. So not the twenty fifteen style stimulus that I think most people think about when they hear this term.

I'm gonna some really bad like live TV math him. You're the china. I like a crack me from wrong.

R, N, B, B, six point seven. So OK about one point four, one point five trillion us. Dollars and stimulus. Sounds like we agree on that number to orbit. That doesn't sound like a lot of money, to be honest with you for a nation of one point three billion people yeah well.

i'll tell you, brother, the estimates that, that number could be as low as four to six true RMB, but ten I think and even within the ten, there are discussions about how that's broken out uh, brand.

So there's about six or so that will be a borough from the central government to help with local government that about another four so that local governments were used to buy up some of the excess of property, some of the land that developers had that they can do anything with. So is not going to to be targeted in one specific. So IT, IT could disappoint investors even more when you start to unravel the various specifics of this package.

And again, for me, i've been talking about this for you and I have you have to do something, in my view, to stimulate consumption, something for households. And I don't think that is coming. Uh, brand.

So IT may be a disappointment. I do think it's something is Better than nothing. But will this be what everyone is expecting? I'm not i'm not so sure, bro.

Hey, ward kids, tim, um it's it's always great to have your view. And so when i'm reading your notes, I see you saying that for the first time in your career, the chinese people understand um that these events, these moments have an impact on their lives and back to your your scope scale on timing, seems to me the timing is such that right now that this is a government that that really I care less about the scope and more that the policymakers seem to be scrambling.

And then I take you back to the markets and I think investors have pumped the bricks. I don't think investors are expecting anything. I see ababa, which was up here, one twenty five, it's down, you know, below hundred, I think. People, so I was a trade, but our polis makers are not saying they're scrambling. But IT seems to me that the frequency of these announces nounce ments with your insights into they realize this matters um to the population who really that's all they're trying to do is managed the population and I would think this could mean something bigger .

yeah I I I think that those all great points stem and i've been trying to talk about this more in terms of stabilization versus stimulation, right? Is not the big juice, but the party does realize the government realize there's a serious problem in and you have seen a shift the way they think about addressing this. But again, that only go so far.

We're not going to see that twenty fifteen that we've been longing for where they're just going to really overdue and stimulate the economy. You're trying to do a lot with this package. We'll see what happens on the eighth november when is announced.

I hope there's something and therefore stimulating consumers. This is gonna be a slow walk. Then I think we're seeing th Epace p ick u p a l ittle b it, but this is still slow compared to to the need, I think in the urgency. My own personal view here.

Yeah on the big cap, F, X, I chinese have had a nice pop off its lows, but still dead money for the last two or three years towards when you'll thank you very much. Preciate your time. Have a great weekend. july. Billy, got to comment on china.

yeah. I mean, I think for how many years have we heard that you know, the chinese government is fixed and focused on driving consumption and they are completely unable to do IT. And I think where I A chinese consumer looking at the government increasingly being more and more and hinge, I would be less excited to be spending money, right? I would be concerned about my my own outlook and opportunity.

And the thing that's really tRicky for the chinese government is they just have an absolute disGrace. E, for the idea, dowling, out checks the way we did during the pandemic. And so I think until there is A A meeting of minds there, they are not really going to be able to move the ball materially.

And I think there's a lot up in the air right now. And obviously, next week, we have this chinese news, hopefully, but also we have the election and there's actually a lot of question right now. Will there be a different amount of stimulus depending on the outcome of election, which actually kind of an interesting thing to look at.

So I think I love to see that there. But I think when you look at this too, I mean, what this is about about month ago when you saw china move so dramatically at that very short period time, I think it's just a reminder of how quickly just the news of stimulus coming out can move those markets. And the question is like, one is a actually to hit how is going affect their consumer? But when you're investor, you do have to be position there before that news hits because it's really hard to chase IT after the fact.

Yes, well said, i'm sure listen ll be here on monday will talk more about the election because it'll be the next day, all right, coming up. Some fast movers catching our attention include yet super micro. It's been a brutal run. Did you get Better today? No, we'll talk more about IT coming up.

I walk back, got a little bit of good news around boeing. Boeing stock up about four percent. They reached a tentative and that's a critical word, tentative deal with their machinist union.

The new offer would include thirty eight percent rates over four years, neither a twelve thousand dollars signing bonus or a smaller bonus, but an included four one k match. Union members tim are set to vote on the contract on monday with the strike. I don't want to say crippling, but if IT goes on longer, IT could be yeah and .

and I think we we've had some momentary where we might have thought the strike was settle two weeks ago, about ten days ago. And this is a company. He also just come to the market and raised a lot of money and certainly backed up the baLanced.

And I think from a credit perspective, that's been good in the short run ultimately like it's salute. I mean, the bottom is when you talk about boeing, when i've been excited about boeing over the years as because this is a complete historically span off a lot of free cash flow. And that was part of the magic that was going to come back.

And and it's interesting because the irony is, of course, look at airlines. They're now coming back and taking back what was theirs recover. I mean, if you look at delta, that thing is soaring to sixty bucks to back to upturn.

IT had pretty veit. It's taken a lot of other industries is also that at least are in the transportation or in the hospital a place to get there. And boeing, obviously, I think that they get through this strike.

They have significantly more issues in the complexity of also getting hold again of their really the manufacturing I just, I believe, bullying. And I think at this point, we're Priced in a lot of bad news. I wouldn't be a seller here.

okay? Used to be almost at a nuwan in a way as they make airplanes a sellon and everybody wins, right? We got to talk super micro, alright, smc, I shares.

They're still going down. okay? This, after its accounting from earth, Young resigned. So what mico didn't fire earns to Young, earned in Young, we talked about last night, voluntarily said we can't bear all fired the client. They fired the client.

Well said that sent the stock down thirty three percent, fell another, what, ten or some percent yesterday, and another ten percent today. Super micro, which was beginning of the year, first half of the year, one of the hottest stocks in the world, is now officially down for the year, down eighty percent from its all time high. In march, just around the time, of course, IT was added Karen to the s and p five hundred.

Which kinds of goes to our previous breaking news on intel? right? Well.

hard to be careful what you wish for because this scrutiny them and ultimately being kicked out potentially would be a very bad thing for the stocks. So I don't know how many times that's been in the wash in these downtown, but you get up three big problems. I got to find an auditor of some good repute who would do there are, yes, that's one.

You've got to stabilize the business. If you're a customer wanting to buy, you know, a piece of equipment server, what you ve got a really thing twice, right? And then the third thing is you ve got your employees who are probably feeling pretty uncertain and scared and probably not that productive right now. That's another thing you get to fix. So is IT honnor .

until they get in order to we talked about the last night until somebody says we are willing to take this on. We d like what we see with the books.

Not for no, not for me. I do on puts though.

So owns puts, right? Coming of IT is not just voting time here in the U. S.

How elections are more than sixty nations around the world might impact. Your money will go through each one. No, we. Ww, no, we will go back in two minutes.

I'll walk you back. This is the biggest election year in history. We say that, not our opinion. Nearly half the world's population is casting boats for their respective leaders.

How are these voters and investors dealing with economic stress and anxiety around election outcomes? Well, see abc senior personal finance correspondence sharing epca nose and that is why should we are very glad you decided to coming here on us on on a friday afternoon. I want they dealing with IT besides maybe occasion dot beverage yeah you .

know principal financial group, they offer retirement plans and other financial products to about sixty eight million clients, institutions and individuals around the world. And I spoke exclusively with its chairman and CEO dann housing about how american investors are coping with preelection jitters.

As we look at our own member base, nearly ten million plan participants. They're not moving their money, they're staying the course, and they know that they're well served to stay in a well diversified portfolio.

Now since twenty twenty two principles, global financial inclusion index has measured how governments, employers and financial systems promote the financial inclusion of customers in more than forty markets. This year, the united states fell in the rankings, while singapore and hong kong held the top spots. How son says this is why .

us to sort of what i've got trading water. While other countries, in particular, those who have adopted digital forms of financial transactions and enhance their financial literacy there, they want to making up ground.

And houston says that's what has been happening in southeast asia and even let amErica and brian, that's why we're seeing this change in the rankings.

yes. So we had some news today. We had lot of news today, actually for friday. This one is on the irs retirement front for so called super savers.

And four one case, what do they do? Why do we care? Well, we care because people .

who want to max out there for one k contributions now can contribute five hundred dollars more up to twenty three thousand and five hundred dollars in twenty twenty five. If you are a fifty year older, you can do a catch up contribution and seventy five hundred dollars, but the big changes for people who are sixty, sixty one, sixty two, sixty three, they now because secure two point o can put in eleven thousand two hundred and fifty dollars is a catch of contribution. So the potential to have thirty four thousand, two hundred, seven hundred and fifty dollars in your four one k as your approaching retirement is a big one for super savers who can afford to do that .

yeah kind of later on when they can make them fill in those gaps they might have missed when they were Younger, didn't make as much money sharing a person, great self, real world, great advice to to have a great weekend. Thank you, right, for more retirement planning strategies, sign up for sharing money one to one newsletter series.

Can the Q R code on your screen don't do if you're driving or go to C, B, C outcome, slash money one or one up next. You know what time IT is? What time is IT, tim?

Believe there's a final trade. Don't don't leave your dial folks or don't move your dial terrible with those. I was expecting that good.

Super quick final trade july kick IT .

off iran is an interesting smaller cap cooling company.

X on, he saw that diversion. What's x on in shower on?

I would take the x on here. OK, I take you like i'm here.

Tim Simon brand.

graham, you look sharp today. You look your mind with somebody I can't figure IT out you anyway, city back, I think actually going home .

city bank on X I love IT little big oil, big energy as well. I'll be back with you on monday. Have a great weekend, everybody. Mad money with jim starts right now.

All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of C N B, C N B C universal, their parent company, or a phillida's, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or you should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable, but neither cnbc nor its a filly's under subsidy areas warrant its complete ness or accuracy, and IT should not be relied upon as such. To view the full fast money displaying, please visit C N B C dot com forward flash fast money.

In this election, there is politics and there's power. It's our beat, and it's about the bottom line. Lie from the new york exchange, washington, your votes, november, N. B, C.