Countdown to Retail Earnings… And A Self-Driving Push 11/18/24
43:42 Share

Our goal is to empower you to be a Better.

Better you, James teachings. I was able to learn and become financially independent in my retirement.

Join the club with jim's best deal of the year at C N B C D com slash club, like for friday, terms of restrictions, supply.

Life in the next like marketed in the heart of new york city's time square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. Retail on deck walmart near all time highs to get set report earnings tomorrow will target continues to lag how these two poys heading into the holiday season who comes out, the winner will debate that, plus a robot taxi revolution. Tel, surging as the next administration looks to ease rules on self driving cars.

But is this really as bad for uber and lifted today's action suggest? And netlik hits new hives in the back of friday nights. I and pool main event the chart master says that is time to go short on talent here and are wishing H B D to the GLD the first ever gold dt f celebrating a milestone. But is there more time to shine? I'm lessons come to life and see your business and asia on the best nate, tim sea more Carter work see grassi and Michael.

We start off with the countdown to Christmas about thirty six days left in the holiday shopping season in a big week of learnings had to give an early read on spending into year n los T J X gap among the named reporting but investors are home me in on results from bellwethers target and walmart for the latest clues in the state of the consumer. The targets been lagging by about fifty percent and twenty twenty four. The gap appears to be narrowing.

The socks s have almost nine percent in the past three months. Although its last report showed to return to sales growth, the retailer striking more cautious tone on comes into you and warm t mean time, gaining over fourteen percent in the mid August. The company raising its guidance the last quarter, things to strength in the first half of the year, but was less certain on how the consumer would fear in the second half. So how do investors approach retail now, tim, how you feel about the walmart?

I feel pretty good about walmart. I I might feel Better about target, but but it's hard not to feel good about what well march doing on the plane field. I mean, they've done a number of things over the last six or seven quarters, including so the e commerce losses are reducing that the higher margin revenue business.

So advertising and membership or great, we know what's been going on larger across the board in terms of their ability to dominate false, not just food and grocery, but also maybe a different mix. I think let's drink. I think a dynamic where you have just again, higher margin businesses paying means this is going to be at three and half to four and half percent copy you over a year, which is going to be really strong.

It's question of what do you paying for IT. And that's why I I can't like target more here just because of the multiple. And again, it's two times the multiple really a target when you got to there, there IT is. And I think it's a ation that reduce shrink and target has a chance to play even Better for their margin.

Mean more that's that's the king. What do you pay? right? Just like trading at thirty five times, it's never any point in the past twenty years or more than one time sales.

Trading more than one time sales twenty times cash low. So the question is, is IT full expensive a bad word? Because things can always get more expensive and things that and downs and can get much cheaper.

But I think full is the appropriate word. What do you pay? And my hunch is after three quarters in a row where it's beat expectations, I don't think it's we will pull that off a fourth time.

They are checked box category. It's almost like the way amazon was. They have forty two percent of the market here in retail bricking water.

So it's hard to fight that they're getting deeper in dtc. There are nowhere near amazon. Amazon is like the reverse of them. So they're about six percent online. But tim didn't .

really would .

you rather because you .

ask them about one anyday anie time.

usually day anything why tim does self, which rather. But you know it's hard. But to bolt their point, it's hard to bet the winner constantly.

I don't own warmer. I have, but I think target sets up for bounce. The reduction insurance .

is going to be a big driver for target. But magan terms of evaluation of walmart, can you say that historically is never traded at these valuations to store IT? Didn't have that dtc business mean IT sort of a different animal, didn't have the subway station business of walmart plus IT IT has a different sort of business model than I had when he was only books and mor twenty years ago. Yeah.

I didn't have grocery, which is obviously much more stable business as well. So on the in terms of execution, the reason that they're multiple has increased is because they're doing a lot of things, right? And they went from you know their old business model to adopting several new ons.

But you know to those on the desk that are sort of in favor of target, target is i'll be in a little bit late to the game, but they're trying to do the same thing. They are trying to bring in more grocery. I think that's a positive. You know, we had seen some good improvements on the inventory side for them. There aren't a lot of places where you can buy stocks that are significantly cheaper than the multiple of the market at twenty five times.

You know we didn't mention IT, but I think bj, uh, wholesale, which is a much smaller business in any of these but occupy or of a similar space to the subset of walmart that we call sams and costco because they Operate, you know, these membership wholesale clubs. The big difference being that they take coupons or some of these others don't. That's another one that's trading cheap that was less than twenty two times where its costco trading more than fifty.

So you put these two together and I I kind of with the guys on the desk just saying, look, we've had a great run. Maybe it's time to look for some, some Better values out there. And I think that B, J, S is probably one. I think targets is probably one.

So have you tried back here one more position .

because I have that I have and i'd love to buy lower. In fact, I was selling some upside calls, and those sometimes don't feel great when you get called away. And IT just seems like a this has been a case where one more of sixty percent this year thought this year's been all about A I and semis.

The sm, the semi conductor etps up thirty seven percent. Walmart sixty. So it's just underscores where we are here. I do think there's maybe a refresh ed view on the consumer going into this holiday season based upon everything everything from the elections to the market to the fed.

And even if the fed is you more cautious, but just in terms of the consumer, certainly got some sense that some of this is getting Better for them. So we go into this season also lower gas Prices at walmart. I think a major, major tail in something that's probably underestimated and I think even somewhat for target. But I think IT gets back to the margin. I think the shrunk, which was ninety bits of of margin improvement for target in the second quarter, expected to be another fifty bps of of improvement.

Me here, we got a newspaper here and super microchips are surging after our bird cos got the details. Birtha.

yeah, Melissa. Super micro h indicating to the nastec that IT has engaged the bo as its independent auditor effective immediately and that will help IT plead its filings for its a ten cave for the year and of june thirty eighth, also for the a quarter end of september third as well. They don't indicate exactly when they think they're be able to do that. But certainly, this is a big step forward after having lost their auditors and having been under the microscope of a nastec like over to you birth.

Thank you. S, M, C, I, of about fifteen percent right now. Let's go back to retell here, Carter, even taking look at the charts.

what they saying at this point. Let's run through a bunch of data tables, perhaps in some charge. So what thing we can use to measure the whole space is the spider retail etf X R T.

And you'll see here a number constituent seventy eight. The whole thing adds up to about four point one trillion. And what's really studying, of course, is the big difference from the average market cap in the media market cap.

But if we look at the biggest holdings by market capture, the biggest names that everyone knows, you see amazon here, walmart, costco. But interesting, that's not the way the etf is waited. They waited almost equal way.

So here on the next table, you'll see the five biggest weights. And they are, of course, not particularly big companies. But the point is that no one stock gets more n about two percent.

So you have a very effective way of saying what does retail overall look like? And this next chart will depict that if you look at the a comparative chart of X R T to the market, they're deadly even essentially over the past five years. But you see the beta associate with retail, right IT overshoots to the downside during covered overshoots to the upside down to five year basis.

This aggregation has matched the market. And the final charge is just look at the X, R, T itself. The issue here is that it's nowhere near its all time.

High markets generally are at highs and many stocks are. I have a sideways arrow drawn there. I think this is a paradise.

okay? Partitions are overall X, R, T. And you said walmart looks full and walmart looks full according evaluation.

And the chart, yeah, we might have a chart of walmart. And if we do, we can look at IT. But walmart, I don't see how you can pull this off worth the upper band of a well defined channel at least takes some profit cells and calls that kind.

You don't sound tell me both on retail period, right? Again, it's whether it's full or whether it's yeah .

think we have we have a lot of Rachel ls, you know that are in real trouble, right? We kind of retailed in this country and you're seeing and I say, so what that's the nature of life. They always saw that winners and loses, losers lose. And people that are prevAiling or it's a Better athlete or Better politician or a Better student, they prevail. But there are a lot of individual retail names that are in real trouble.

right? Let's go to the broader market, our next guess, as the rally can still hold into you. And let's bring in the tix as as jack genoc witz. Jj, good to see you.

thanks. Join me.

There has been a real bullishness a to the rally recently and you say this can hold into you, and does that mean hold and make big advances or or hold? What sort of check along.

I think we continue to dry and up into the end of the year and potentially go out of new eyes. And no, I think the key to this is really what we're seeing out of the treasury market. And one of the things we keep saying is, I think the market maybe getting a little ahead of itself in terms of pricing in some of that really overly hawkish ness.

And we expect maybe we get a little bit and softer data over the next couple of Operations, and that takes a little bit of the edge of the treasury market that might take a little bit of the edge of the dollar strength and that might be enough just to get a little of the cavs into the end of the year. That batch start up with the seasonal and think that's pretty good backdrop here. We finished out twenty, twenty four.

Jack, when you look at the a concerning the fed, when you look at a term that you've use the big peak hawkish ness, do you think that we're really there? And will that continue to be a tail win for the markets? Or have the markets already Priced ed in that and are replaced ing in something else?

I think we've gone to the point where we're starting to Price and quite a bit in terms of a hooker asist, right? If you go back to when we are really pricing in the majority of the rate cuts, no. So let's call the end of september, you're looking at ten cuts now the markets closer to pricing in three cuts in here.

And know, I think when you start to look at that backroads markets, probably looking a little bit father into the tromp t administration, you know a lot of voting her and campaign trail cessile get done in here. So maybe that takes a little the edge off there. On top of that, again, we go back to there's probably going to be a little bit of softening in the data.

Are we going to fall off a Cliff er and push recession? Probably not. But I think that gives us a little of arrange the opposites, probably cap because of that peak options. At the same time, I think there's also four terms of how much growth will slow. That part puts the economy and pretty much a sweet spot here.

IT sounded, jack, according to the notes that you are a little bit skeptical in terms of what the bullishness is around the truck administration. What IT could possibly do would actually do for the markets, mainly because the backdrop we're entering this year, his latest administration with a very different backdrop then back in his first administration.

you know, starting points matter, right? If you start to look at the twenty sixteen blue printing, I think that's what the market has been following over the last couple of weeks in here. Know that starting point is very different, right? You are looking at fed funds coming off the zero interest rate that lower bound. You know you are looking at ten yields close to two percent.

Uh, you are looking at, you know that a GDP of about seventy five percent, we go through the list on and on, get up to where we are today, very different backtrack, right? Said funds at four and half four or seventy five. We looking at the twenty four four det. GDP one hundred twenty percent know the deficit, one point trillion starting points matter tic. I think IT puts a little bit of a lid terms of how much of that upside to growth you can really Price in because I think you're going to get a little Better self correcting mechanism, especially from the bond market if things started to accelerate to the upside.

All right, jack, great to see you. Thank you. Also, James of natixis, mike, he makes a great point. Even fed funds rates of the deficit does a saggy change between the first administration and this one.

Boy.

yeah ah well, you know what? I think some people are optimistic. I think part of the grind higher right now is that there is some sense of optimism that you could get some more material movement on some of the intractable budgetary problems that we have seen in a fiscal level, whether or not that's true.

Remember, course, congress is the one that controls the first thing, that one of the things always attributed to the executive, but it's congress that controls the first string. But of course, if they can use the bully puppy to identify a couple meaningful places for change that don't pinch too much, then actually maybe we could see the movement in that area and we could get a combination of growth without quite the increase in the fiscal problems that we have seen. You know getting extended out three point two trillion, I think, was the number that that pen had drowned out, of course, of ten years if the proposals that the incoming trumpet administration actually were put in, in the place, which was about one point two trillion more in kala had proposed. But I think there's some chance that, that doesn't in in a little bit. And growth, of course.

can solve a lot of problems too. Let's get to bus kill now. Check out chairs of nike.

Down another two plus percent today for the years, and down over thirty percent compared to a nearly twenty four percent gained by the S M. P. Even the announcement of a new C E, O, elliot hill, has been greeted by investors with gears. Tim, were you gering you are gering your optimistic assante.

I like, I believe this is by far the largest athletic brand in the world, with the kind of brand that I think will be resilient even in the face also of I think they had probably their greatest moment coming out of copy.

If you think about where we all were on athletica and what was even going on with the brand, the cow, and notice talking about their concerned first well when reaching out to both the street and and the anos community, but also that just where the consensus still too high and that there might be just another reset on expectations and went, that makes some sense if you're allier. You know, if you have this dynamic where you've got you've come in, there's been this big boost to morale, but nothing really has changed in the view has been that some of nike issues, I think, are at least medium term. So that's where we were with nike. I think even before the CEO change is that you weren't going to see till mid twenty five any real uplift in in targets. And I think that's probably where we.

I mean, I would think might even take long. I mean, if you're addressing issues like innovation and news of product, how long is that pipeline? It's got a lot longer than six months for that problem. That seems to be one of the .

major ones that wasn't he's an insider, right? So the whole idea about switching IT on its head, trying something new is hiring somebody that's not an insider of fresh look, some fresh perspective and you're not getting a look. Under armour is up twenty two percent and less three months. Nike down ten percent. Teams probably wearing ones right now, right?

So there's a good my feet on the table. My mom told me not to do that really. Yes.

there's a lot of Price.

the chair.

there's a lot of companies that are taking share and I get IT. Nike is the biggest in the room, and everyone sort of revolves around nike is the sun, but it's no longer the sun in sun.

people. Something .

for .

a lot maybe.

Laugh at they don't know. Member, this existed. So they had kids yeah and they had converse was my dad. They start up.

They were be going to club.

We want to get into .

that in anyway, coming up a boxy bomb for netflix, live stream glitches, not holding the stock back from hiding a fresh record high, how saturday slug best could help pave the way for the streamers, big push into life sports and shares a Robin hood well into the Green after enough very details on the bullish call and how a coming S C. Shakeup could fuel the trade.

don't go into where fast back to.

This is best money with Melissa right here on C, N, B, C.

Our goal is to empower you to be a Better, best music .

teaching I was able to learn and become financially independent in my retirement.

Join the club with jima's best deal of the year at C N B C D com slash club like for friday terms of restrict and supply.

Welcome back to fast money network chairs heading a record hyde today after the streaming giant set of wapping, sixty million households worldwide watch friday and the night boxing match between mites, son and jack poll. But all that viewership wasn't without its problems, the streamer technical issues and customer complaints of our stability and audio quality despite the issues opening time reiterating that perform rating on netlik this morning, saying viewership was likely double internal expectations that any technical issues should be fixed by the time netflix shows its first several live nfl game on Christmas day is a great ring field this morning on school, and he was saying sixty million far exceeds whatever the nfl will pull in. I mean, realistically.

absolutely in again, we still haven't to that Christmas day with now beyond they doing the half time show. I mean, it's kind of like a super and and the dynamic for a netflix right now with seventy million and tier M A use at this point. I mean, that gives you a chance to actually see where they can go in some of the stuff and where I can grow.

So twenty five revenue top line expected to grow anywhere between eleven and thirteen percent. That's something that I think also could be upgraded. And if he does this multiple for, again, a company that makes a lot of money, y'll make twenty nine and thirty box to share by the end of twenty five. I think you stay long.

So I did watch the fight. I did have glitches. I don't know anyone else to fight. I did have glitches. Were problems with .

IT three point for tyson.

yeah. And I felt like he did hold back. But that's a totally different show. I think he could have won. I think he could have knocked amount either here nor there.

The problem is netflix should have been focused on three times of the year ship. There shall have been any glitches. There shall have been the ability to have any glitches on that.

A little shocked. So is, is IT just half that amount? Was rick Green fields said. Is football going to be a half that amount or a third of that amount? I don't know.

But what's to stop that from having a glitch? Unus too? People aren't going to keep coming back if they .

have a choice.

When I was question, when I was buffering and doing how do you think .

it's my T V. Or my yeah.

come on. Yeah, yeah. Look at you.

You cared. If you stay with IT, it's stay long, belong nice, studying up trend, nothing wrong.

Yeah, my, you agree with that.

Yeah, one hundred percent. I mean, precision. They are going to fix this problem IT is evidence that they've completely transformed.

They occupy, uh, you basically the the media space. I mean, this is a remarkable turn. Turn out.

I I did watch IT know you tell about sixty, sixty five million households how many people within each. These are epic numbers. And the thing is all of their margins are getting Better.

The castle margins are getting Better than that. Income margins are getting Better and did more of this content they bring in. And the more dependent on them we become, the more flexible they can also get on pricing.

I know a lot of people talk about, people know cutting them off if they raise their Prices, but I actually disagree with that. I think this is kind of a staple, and i've described IT before as an unregulated utility. Everyone's got to have a try cutting IT off in your own household, but you don't have regulated pricing like you do for your pg n able.

They give how great this is for the betting sites. Sixty million people are tuning into this measure, the percentage actually placing a bed. I mean, if you get the ship up, that's participation. That's potentially yeah again.

IT gets back also to another place nettes. You could post some strange when I get when IT gets into gaming and dynamics that they haven't .

started a lot more fast money to come here just coming up.

Next we go under the hood why analysts are getting bullish on one online trading platform and how the mean craze could drive shares. What's next for robbin? Hood is coming up, plus tesla driving higher as its focus on robot taxi could start paying the latest on regulation and what that could mean for the ride share stocks. You are watching fast money live from the at that market side in time square. We're back right after this.

Our goal is to empower you to be a Better investment teaching.

I was able to learn and become financially independent in my retirement.

Join the club with jim s best deal of the year at C N B C to com slash club, like for friday terms of restrict and supply.

We got a news zal ert on alphabet, dear or bosses got the details debo .

heelless a so google shares, they dipped on this news. They recovered a little bit. But bloomberg is reporting that deo j.

Anti trust officials have decided to ask a judge to force google to sell off its chrome razer. Now this is part of the lawsuit that went in the jo js favor for your member back in August. Um the judge rule that google has illegally monopolized the search market.

There's been some revenues and now apparently at the D R G, anti trust officials are asking the judge to put a cell off of the chrome browser on the table as part of those remedies. Melisa, as I mentioned, shares of almost recover. They did dip on that. But of course, google is expected to appeal and we are likely not to get something on this for some months. But this is something that's now on the table that could make investors nervous back over year.

Did you? Thank you, dear boss, A H my, what you make of this news, I mean, that does sound like IT will be protracted process, if this actually comes to tradition, is going to be a long time in coming. And by that time, you know, we might not even be looking at chrome anymore. We're just going to go straight to the AI chatbot we meet.

We may well, look, we're going also going to have a different administration in plants by that time. Look, there was a time when microsoft was facing you know some pressure from the government regarding their sort of monopoly position. Ah they managed to maintain their brothers and think it's getting some increasing penetration.

Chrome is pretty tight into some of the functionality that users of google other applications uh, are involved with. I happen to be a pretty heavy user myself. So uh, it's kind of hard for me to see how you just uh extract that and don't disrupt a lot of their other core and key businesses.

So I have a feeling they're going to be able to make a pretty good case for why they don't to do that. But in any case, the companies are very good valuation based on their free casual anyhow. So even if this did happen, I don't think that this is the worst possible thing for shareholders. The company so represents a very good value in my view.

right? Meantime, Robin hood surging after need them upgraded the retail trading platform to buy from a hold. The first thing, Robin hood would benefit substantially from a trump presidency due to changes at the sec and the president like funders for CPO currency, reportedly h. Trump is going to meet with brian armstrong, who is said that history peers, which has been a very friendly programs to fc, exceeding S, C, C, commissioner appointed by trump originally, that he should be S, C, C chair, which would be very positive .

theory IT IT seems as if the starts are lining for crypto assets and and therefore the the conduits to play crypto and that which is really beyond the bit coin story. That's kind of the sense here is right. okay? We know where we can buy bitcoin terms of bt flow.

We know the dynamics there. We also know the correlations to hood, to coin base, to some of the other players. And I think that's what this is about. This is a call on the asset class, but Robin hood has started. They relisted sono and X R P and cardono o and and things that had been dealest at some point. It's a sign that not only is the asset class wide open again, but that their audience of call their trader group different than the folks that log in on the swap. No doubt they're they're betting encysted.

I mean, specific to hood, it's a great look in charge. Some of the definition along and protracted the decline is now coming to life. Embarrased ed, too bullish reversal by and importantly, here it's about to get back to its IPO Price, right? IT was in the summer of twenty twenty .

one came thirty eight, thirty.

And to a lot of people where you market spaces and mentally where you anyone, people that's right where you where you are like, wow. And a lot of people say, well, now i'm back, even if I wanted take my money out. You say how many people are still there since I plenty, but there's a psychological of thing to get back .

above where you started and IT.

is that but the basically the Price fine coalition here is bullish enough to think I think we'll make IT at least to thirty eight next three points higher from here. And then um we see from .

here right coming up text shares getting another post election book have the present that could step in step on the gas for the self driving car industry. What do can mean for others in the space that trade when fast money returns?

mr. Moment of fast catches any time on the go followed the fast money podcast. We're back right after this.

Welcome back to fast money stocks mix to kick off the week to death fall in fifty five points. They also be up about four, ten, seven percent. And then as are getting six tencent percent, snapping A A losing street shares of V I lilly down more more than two percent today, percent that stocks now down more than twenty five percent from the record high hit in August.

Tesla riding high today, up nearly six percent. President like trump signally, he wants to relax self driving rules. Cbc is fill of both. Got all details on this one. Fell Melissa .

comes down to who will be the transportation secretary because the indication, according to a report from bloomberg, is that the priority for the D. O, T under whoever is the secretary will be the advancement of autonomists vehicle technology. Certainly seems like elon muss would benefit from that.

Certainly tesla would benefit from that. And that's the reason why sheres of tesler got a nice spite today. This is not a surprise. Everybody's known for some time that elan musk would likely be pushing the trump administration to advance autonomous vehicle development.

And as a result, this could ease federal oversight as IT is being developed that in theory, should speed up the development of teslas robot taxi. The reason tesla shares are up dramatically since election day is because of the anticipation of what this market could turn out to be. Estimates are all over the place our investments invest uh, or IT estimates that the market could be eleven trillion dollars.

There are a lot of other analysts who think that's inflated and that is far lower regardless. This is a huge potential market, but you have to keep a couple of things in mind. First of all, tesla is not any work close to autonomous drive technology yet.

IT is developing IT and they believe they will be there. But right now, full sell driving requires the driver to be engaged with. The vehicle is not a fully autonomous vehicle right now.

They hope to have unsupervised, full self driving in certain states like texas in california next year. And then come twenty twenty six, we may see the cyber cab or robot taxi out on the road, at least in a limited number of markets. That's the plane from tesla.

Couple of things to keep in mind. When IT comes to the regulation of autonomists vehicles, the federal government IT sets the rules for vehicles. But the states, the states set the rules when IT comes to drivers.

And you might be send yourself, well, who's the driver if it's an autonomous vehicle, the often are. And that brings up a key question, accident liability. These laws are going to have to be worked out over the next several years, and it's not gona happen quickly.

Bottom line is this malicious? You also take a look at aura and mobile. I in the reason we're showing you this is because they're both developing autonomists vehicle technology.

Aura innovation is for trucks mobile ee. We're all familiar with the work that they're doing. The bottom is this molester. Autonomous vehicle technology could be speeded up, sped up, I should say, uh, if there is A D O, T, that is going to look more favorably upon IT.

But that does not mean that it's a slam dunk that tesla will have robot taxes on the road by twenty twenty six. They still got to prove their technology. And we heard that time and again from a number of analysts today.

you feel thank you feel abo for more in the sole story, lets brain mark mehanna, head of internet research at ever core rsi. Today, mark was named uber, as is top, a large cap long pig. And this is a day, of course, for uber as well as lift um fell on the back of this news. And mark, what is the reality in terms of the impact on uber ne lift? Is that ultimately a good thing or a bad thing?

I mean, I think the answer to the question comes down to whether you think one a vy company is gna run the table on AV technology. I don't think one will. And so in that case, the ultimate demand aggregator is gone to be uber, and you'll find robot taxi on uber s network.

And so a uber, the concerning point of view today and has been for the last couple of months, but that's okay. I think uber is actually going to be a long term positive derivative from this. I think the speeding up of author's vehicle technology and regulations, I think, is a great thing.

I can look at my window here in san Frances go. There is so times vehicles right here, they're called way more. They do very well.

It's wonderful to happen here now, and i'll like to, but I took on nineteen years to get here today. I know that tesla has taken a different technology approach. I am not sure which the approach is gone to win.

But for uber perspective, and this is my still my thought pic. I'm not i'm not moving away from that is IT comes down to whether they going to be multiple AV vendors. And my guesses is that there will be okay.

So if we can sort of break down how to think about this, tesla can make the vehicles that are AV autonomous vehicles, but there has to be some sort of an aggregator, a platform by which to consumer interacts and calls those vehicles. You're thinking that text is not going to enter that market and that uber and lift will be left as those aggregator platforms.

I think tesla wants to do that.

I think they want to enjoy in the market.

okay. yeah. The question is whether they can be have to get the technology on. And look, I hope they do IT. I think it's great for all of us if they can do IT with computer vision and make IT like what that's not way most approach.

It's not cruise approach and way most out there, doing in tens of thousands rides and doing IT very effectively and dealing with what the government is sort of in place to try to figure out how do you reduce death? S, I think it's been wonderful. What what layo was done.

I mean, I think some of these restrictions it's taking of nineteen years to get to this point. But part of that technology, but part of that been restrictions. And I think the idea of easy, no restrictions is a great idea.

Hey, markets timid, you can do the long time and you're out on the leading edge here, I think. And so help us understand though the difference tree in the take rates in the current dynamic rober and what I would look under like with their AV services as the core backbone or platform for this system, and you could even be a more profitable business for them relative to the business they have. Now help us understand at least how you think of old versus new uber.

yeah. So I think these are just really hard things to figure out him. Uh, it'll depend I get IT will keep coming back to or we're gonna multiple AV autonomous hitle a rubble taxi vendors in the future.

If it's just tesla world, that's a fundamental real negative for an uber assume IT five to ten years from now, maybe even longer than that, tesla can have that kind of global fleet or at least in the us, that would be a really negative scenario for uber. But if there are multiple vendors that do a pretty good job and away with an alternative technology is a very good job in the market that it's in. And then if you put in zooks and you get some of the chinese vendors in this market too, and my guess is that, that's what's gonna happen. It's probably healthy for the marketplace that have multiple A V vendors. So that happens then that's fundamental good for uber in the same economics that uber s had in the past get in the future.

But to tips point, I mean uber would not be the owner of these cars. Others SE that changes its business model, mean right now it's asset light, right? IT doesn't own any the cars that doesn't have that sort of issue, the inventory a not keep in maintenance and all that. So in that new world of uber, are the drivers, the owners of these cars in your know how are you thinking about IT? So maybe it's more profitable for the driver, the the quote of quote driver, the owner of the AV.

Well, I think the AV companies, the questions do they want to own and manage their fleet? And my guess is that what was doing now in atlantic and in osmia, what other companies are gonna a want to do, which is they're onna want to take they those awfully expensive cars to develop and and build and distribute, get amount and let somebody else monetized IT for them.

And whoever can bring the most demand to those vehicles can monetized IT a hecker. A lot Better demand from scratch can generate from in lana, but from day one who were can pretty much maximize that capacity util ation. So I think that's what's gonna en.

I hope i'm explaining this. Well, I think this I I think for at least several of these business models, they're to take their fleet of cars, whoever the owners are, and turn them over to the the right chair networks and say, give me eighty sense of every dollar you generate. Give me ninety sense that I have the building to do that. Who was going to make money that way.

right? mark? thanks. Mark mahaney. Let's get another check here in S M. C. I. Super micro IT is now up double digital percent, so let's check on a twenty four percent right now.

After naming auditor video USA for its much delayed annual report anticipates filing a notice of compliance with the anza C2Continue bei ng lis ted her e, coming up twenty years of games for the big, for the GLD goldy T. F. In a rare event around bonier. Next, can you believe that bob live here on on fast money, taking a trip down member in lane with the creator of the fund to find out what is next for the yellow metal, and a technical look at palen tear, what the charts could be telling us about the stocks next move after today, seven percent drop those trades from fast money return.

Normally I talk about the stock market today, we're going to talk about something totally different. I'm going to talk about this. This bit is gold.

This is a gold volume bar. Here is twenty five pounds. It's worth about one hundred eighty thousand dollars. And i've got three of them here, along with a lot smaller amounts of gold as well as these two burly guards i've been married to for the last one hour. Thank you guys why I talk about today because finally, a gold etf is available today for the first time, thanks to the world gold council and state street, you were able to buy gold just like it's a stock that .

was bosonic at the new york soc exchanged twenty years ago on the first day of trading of the golden shares etf GLD. Since then, the Price stored four hundred and forty three percent. Wow, bob is on his spoke with the etf founded earlier today.

He joins us now. Wow, bob, that that I remember that day very clearly. I was revolutionary.

Like, what's gona happen to goal? Oh, the lights are going up, up there? I don't know. Oh, not yeah.

I had the double brusa suits and I had Brown hair at the time. So i'm really having a little trip down memory lane. Thank you.

Most of the spiders, gold chairs or gd played a very big part in expanding gold ownership. So prior to two thousand, four investors who wanted to own gold had very limited choices. They could own gold bars and gold coins, of course, but stories was really a problem.

They could own gold futures, but that involved another layer of complexity. They could also earn gold mining stocks. But there was an imperfect relationship between gold and gold miners.

GLD changed all of this. IT was the first commodity etf in the united states. The gold was held involved in london by a custodian.

IT could be bought and sold in a broker account and even traded in today is the largest gold etf, the seventy four billion dollars in assets. So why has golf recently hit in historic high? I talk with George million standing, the sound of GLD about that.

A lot has to do with the change in who is buying gold that the GLD helped implement. When the D. T.

F was introduced twenty years ago, most of the gold demand was a jury, about eighty percent of a jury, particularly from the consumers in india and china. But thanks to gold tf, the investor base who want to own gold directly has dramatically expanded. So with investors now accounting for about a quarter of all gold demand, that's a huge change.

Another base of support recently has been central bank buying. It's now about fifty percent of all of demand as the central banks have sought to diversify their reserves. Goal was recently at an historic high. But since the election, by the way, gold is now about fifteen percent.

So high Prices for gold create a real problem, particularly when the suddenly an increased risk appetite for stocks following the trump factory IT means golden investors are essentially incentivize to sell their high Price gold and put money into a stock market that looks like IT has more room to run. The, by the way, of course, blesses, you know, is a headwind for gold as well. The other big changed from twenty years ago, as you mentioned, on the fact that I had Brown hair back then, was that gold bar, that four hundred thousand years, that was one hundred ninety thousand dollars at the time.

Today, that goal bar is just about a million dollars, is exactly big, big change in the last twenty years. more. Listen.

you put one of those little gold pieces in your, that's why are such a big double best suit.

You got a way with all sorts of stuff back then. You know, this day, I mean, that was actually like Green, a double bread. Two, at the time, we were wearing all sorts outrageous stuff.

You were .

that well, but thank you. Thank .

bosonic bob. List all these reasons why maybe the gold run is over or is gna slow down. Carter, what do you see?

I don't think so. I mean, look at just for inflation. Gold still has room to run to really make substantial new eyes.

And and we know this, that GLD since its inception is actually beat the S. M. P, which is a remarkable thing. And gold itself goes only about one hundred and ninety seven to find a match with the hospital for twenty seven years. Goal is done just as well as all the innovation that amErica in the world can bring as captured by the s five hundred.

That's pretty good. Even love in gold.

I been loving gold. I've love in bob pizon I for twenty years too and always work in tf plan up. But bob is he belongs on the mount rushmore two A C N B C. And look, i've said this probably too many times in the last six months is that gold is the best twenty year chart. So some of this is really from that day, that of the advent of the E T. But the central bank buying is something that's been building in pace since the early two dozens and its all about a reserve currency that i'm not saying tomorrow, but there's no question we can see the rest of the world wants to have more control over the research.

Now we have plentier pulling backstairs down after a huge run in the name of the technical lows could be twenty to even more pain ahead, what the chart master sees next for fast money into.

Welcome back to fast money. Talented your dropping nearly y seven percent today. IT was just friday that IT became twenty twenty four best performing stock in the S M P.

IT was the second worst performer in the next today. And one of our traders says IT is time to sell short. IT is the chart master who says that so what are .

the technicals? Well, again, let's stay away from words that have no the final meaning, expensive or chep evaluation, terble timing to but look at three identical charges. So here's palencia with no annotations judgements, no lions drawn, let's put some in.

And what we know is the stock is to the penny of the upper band of this well defined channel in which it's been the sending. We also know in August of this year was twenty one dollars. It's tripled at sixty one final chart.

You can see how precise the stock has reacted to the upper and lower band sell at all if you've got IT. That's my thinking. And that means if you don't have any, you're selling short.

This was something we talked about on friday. I felt like the chart was a little peek y, but more importantly, I feel as if they're going to be in the target for government efficiency. This is the first place you'll tried to cut forty percent of their revenue comes from governments.

So I think it's a little toppy all the way around. They're not diversified enough. And the chart, as cartage er said, a little topic in pontier .

aren't in the business though of of establishing efficiency. I mean, isn't IT really software .

company to remove thousands .

and thousands of people, possibly totally?

And and I think that elan, who is a software guy, is going to say to them are you're offering IT for x, let's do IT for percent of x so I he's forced to to save two trillium. He's forced to cut everything. My.

the they specifically spoke about government contractors, the the doge, the department government efficient guys were talking specifically about, uh, government contractors. They are certainly one you know you're going to take a short that I would use option something like post pads because Frankly, you know shorting stocks obviously cares unlimited risk. This is the kind of name that we've seen some pretty wild moves in IT. And as that short interest creeps up, so does the possibility of some .

form of up next final trades.

President trump has named his pic for transportation secretary shaan dufy, who's occurrent fox news host, is up for the job. Time for the final trails. Go around the hall, my co.

We're getting options on the black ground. Which point etf tomorrow on the nasdaq? Dogs and cats living together as deck.

Tim, I think all .

those reasons by gold continued even though they run up to the elections. So I had to take profits. I think you get back into that race.

Part of work.

talented or steep, corrected salad steer.

applied digital.

That was my final trade friday.

seven percent today in video and investors. So right.

thanks for all to fast. See back your to mark back from more fast mad money with jim craymer search right now.

All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of C N B, C N B C universal, their parent company, or a fillettes, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium.

You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable, but neither cnbc nor its a fillies under subsidy areas warrant its complete ness or accuracy, and IT should not be relied upon as such. To view the full fast money displaying, please visit C N B C dot com forward flash fast money box tomorrow.

The lifestyle icon Martha store a wide ranging interview about one hundred book and business empire robo ck C E O on the company's latest safety controls, stay ahead of the market school box tomorrow six and term C N B C.