Bitcoin & The Bro Trade… Plus More Room To Win In The Post-Election Rally? 11/11/24
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Live in the next like market on the night of the S M P closed above six thousand. And for the first time, this is fast money. Here's what on tap tonight, the trump trade and rally moo from bit point to me, socks traders building up the names that could benefit in the next. But canada in's last and health care headache shares a pharmakon adb thinking after one of its key drugs disappoints in clinical trials.

What I means for the company and for evening, the space plus chips gets checked this time when semi drops down to help the other airline es take off and home depos such report earnings tomorrow, what to expect from the numbers and how shares could react molesey come to do a lot than studio B S N assez on the dest night tem sem more Carry da and guide my and we started off with the latest boost to crypto in its proxy trades. Bitcoin in all time high of more than eighty eight thousand today, as if oria around what trumps win could mean for the industry shows no signs of in the token is now doubled in values as the start of the year and is up nearly thirty percent just ince election day. The crypto contained spreading to other coins as well, either salona doge all seeing outsides game today.

And over the last week, crypt to mary holdings, microstrip, gy, each swing over twenty percent. Coin base, riot, Robin, and also catching a bit with investors, even the mean stocks. They are seeing a combat game, stop and chili, each gaining over nine percent, while A, M, C, finishing the day of five. So what is all this action telling you about the markets at this point, guy.

what do you think? Well, enthusiasm, clearly, and I think in some regard and was just drill down a bit point for a second because in terms of bitcoin, not that I know anything about IT, but my view all along has been it's a play against fiat currencies, more importantly, to play against the fell reserve.

If you go back and look, I don't think it's coincidental that bitcoin topped up way back in the fall of twenty twenty one at sixty thousand, just went to feed, said we're going to start raising interest rates. Bit going, took a nose dive and probably made sense since then as if that is indicated, they were going to start to lower rates. That's when you saw get on a source IT sort of waiveable as the number of rate cuts went from six down to four.

But now that obviously there's a trouble administration coming and people excited, i'll say this quickly. Drone power, I think, absolutely wants to prove his autonomy. You have CPI and ppi this week.

Drone pal speaks on thursday. I think there's a chance at the fed sort of disappointed on the rate cut cycle. And with that said, you could put little disappointment in a bit contrail.

I agree with you on the rate cut, right cut cycle. And in another environment, I think I would put a little you know that fiscal this that monitary discipline would be sort of tempering ing for bitcoin.

However, I do think that given the very dramatic change in what would regulate environment for crypto and other currencies, that this this sort of unallocated resources that are sitting on the sidelines that want to need to get into bitcoin now IT takes a while to get that much money in. And I mean, clearly, IT started a huge way. But if you think about when the the big, the tf and how much money came in, and I took A, I don't know, a month at least. And then you look at the even doge coin, which we know is nothing what .

do is nothing .

know yeah .

you know that tripled .

maybe in the last week or so. Um so having the authorities is there for sure, but I think that bitcoin really is the one that sort of a real asset allocation from institutional investors. And if you look at what's happened with gold versus bitcoin in the last week, I think that tells you that's really happening.

Yeah, I guess the gold thing probably is more to do with the dollar. If you look at the move in the dollar the last few weeks, I mean, it's come from one hundred one to five in the dick year above that I mean list you said some interesting current .

you said for those who need thank you say.

knows that most everything that comes out, no one needs to get in the big coin, right? So if you think about IT in that way, you know it's one point seven, I don't agree O I think that .

there's a sort of portfolio auth that includes some allocation to bid IT going. We will become sort of the I don't know you.

but at my point is if it's only a store of value, know you have the gold and that's outperform predrag, ticals most every other asset class. I'm not make a case against IT. I'm thinking back to the last time IT was up a lot.

Look at either. It's still down about thirty percent from its all time highs IT. Really, the promise of that of smart contracts and building decentralized apps on IT really never played out.

And that's one of the reasons why he was kind of stuck in the mud. So if you're just buying this for a store of value, I get that. But i'm not sure what else that serves at this moment.

I if I get to, but I think so long that is a little bit replacing either somewhat. So and I don't I can remember the magazine who is the either run and and fall before that, but I don't know. I do think there's still more to go in this street.

Digital girl, well, I tell what you've got a combination of. There's no question that bitcoin is is on some level playing higher on a different kind of uncertainty. So gold obviously was playing higher and gold has pulled back.

And I have to call IT what IT is. I mean, I actually thought gold was going to do at least Better at some point after elections, but I even thought I didn't think was gone to do this. Not too worried about the gold trade.

I'm buying weakness here because again, some of that bitcoin buying weakness, i'm talking about a world, world dollars at to your highs almost two years eyes they could get to to your highs soon. The dynamic around tabs is you could see a lot of other countries looking to divide their currencies to make their goods more competitive here. But so they nett the whole thing out.

It's gonna poor economics or at least inflation over here. But I mean, the bitcoin story is one that that again, someone somebody sent me a note this morning and they reminded me of the bend gram quote, which is in the short term, the markets of voting machine, and in the long term, it's a way machine. Well, the polls are still very much open.

We started with that concept on the trump trade here tonight, and I think that's part of what bitcoin is doing. So the main mania is back. If you look at uh, high multiple tech company, some that actually do make money and some that do not um are rally aggressively.

And I think you've got a dynamic here where people can still be voting on what's gonna en, but the vote is on less regular, not just for bitcoin, but for everything. I mean, look at banks. Look at how they continue to rally.

No banks rally well before elections. So and then the truck bets that are not just test, let me look, look at you, look at blacks, tom, look at Steve sportsman. Look at, look at some of those trade where you actually feel like the the ceos that the principles themselves are getting rewarded for, at least having some kind of position with this government. And I think IT continues because right now, it's still voting .

these new stores. They're not known for their fundamentals. No, no. So in an environment where you think that there is less regulation of the economy actually do Better, that's the environment which means that could potentially move high.

I mean, i'm just trying to get that sort of this notion that tim hit on, and that is what this means, what how this is reflective of the appetite risk out there under this new administration. There is a belief here that for whatever reason, the regulation you name IT things are gonna much Better. And I guess our job is to figure out how much Better in is this reflective or is this pull forward? I mean.

is that too much? I think that's fair. And I think that were tempting to do without question how much.

Now the animal spirits for also themselves or to tims point, how much more do we have in this sort of election cycle? And this and the short answer is tim ably, right? There's more room to go in terms of the allocation of money, parents, said IT as well.

And you think about a microstrip gies, for example, who has to buy IT? Nobody necessarily. But now i'm looking there now hundred, two hundred and eighty thousand bitcoin at an average Price for about forty, two thousand and seven hundred hours.

So think about the investments they made and how it's paying off in this environment. So there are clearly people winning to that. But again, IT comes back to what's the environment going in. And quickly, I think this is squazing important not to use a josh ground term, but china announced a one trillion dollar trade surplus, which was a record. This incoming administration will look at this and say that's problematic, whether IT is or not. It'll be offended by IT, which me means the ability or the likelihood of higher terms is out there, which means inflation comes back, which means a gold trade that didn't tim talk about is alive and well.

Now a stronger dollar will offset some inflation. And again, I think what you're talking about with china bank of japan is out. They're saying that they may not hike when they you would have been expected to at their next meeting.

IT means the yen week and that much more. I think it's a combination of this. We're trading show. It's about positioning going into this. I don't think a lot of these trades really where trades other than we've talked about banks, we've talked about some industrial's airlines, which we're onna talk about, but the parts of this trade that are clearly election trades, I think there still planned to go in the election trade. So that small caps trade yeah IT had its places.

But again, back back a bit coin, if you look at just even money flows, so the money flows that are signal by the regulatory environment and what was already in place, you know, I don't know, was that you go to get all those big coin etf. Well, the blackstone, the black rock etf trust is got in. I don't know whatever number they have got in last thursday, put them larger than their gold trust. So that, that means you're starting to see this allocation .

happen for more on bitcoins. Record valley, let's bring a melton, demis. She's a general partner at VC. Crucial capital melt in. Great to see you.

It's me back. It's that time IT is that .

is that time your tim mention flows and that's what you always talk about. Look at the flows and even seeing the flows going game busters in this rally.

The flow, yeah this is a story, right? Sentiment leads to flows. And flows are really how we Price backed in. Backs in is a digital commodity supply and demand are what drive Price.

So flows right now are coming from dimension the etf overall, I think it's just really important to state eighty four billion dollars of flows into the etf, two thirds of the way to the total A U. M. Of gold.

E T S. This is a blockbuster year for bitcoin today. Microstrip gy ve got two billion in bitcoin.

We saw last week, two billion of flows into the big coin etf. The prior weeks, we have seen roughly the same amount. We're seeing all time highs in terms of volumes traded.

So the flows are coming. They're strong. And I think the story is bakin was contrarian. IT is now consensus. So I expect a lot more.

Do you think what you do you think the chances are the U S. Being a huge buyer in that IT becomes a reserve currency or there is a special bitcoin fund?

Well this strategic biton reserve was obviously part trumps um crip to and bitcoin platform. He announced that obviously at the conference the bitcoin conference in the summer, I will be so happy when that happens a alysa. I will buy you all a drink.

relatives care. And thanks for being on today. Do you think there is some amount of supply that comes out at, let's say, one hundred thousand dollars, which is a round number and a target for a lot of bitcoin bulls? Do you think that we would see supply and that maybe put a top on IT?

Yeah, that's a great question, and that's a question we often ask ourselves. Last, I think we're in a very different situation because there was still a lot of sellers of bitcoin, obviously with the F T X um bankrupcy and unwind, several other high profile bankruptcies and unwind, we had a lot of detours holding bitcoin. That supply overhang of bitcoin is mostly gone.

In may, we had a bitcoin in having there is now half the amount of big coin that's mind in every block. So the inflationary pressure from big coin mind's now cut in half. That supply overhang is getting cut back.

I think the volume of buying is gonna greatly exceed the volume of selling. The big coin miners aren't as a accumulating many coins again because that having cycle has happened this year. So I think there is a lotless selling pressure.

And the reality is as much as people say they're na sell at one hundred k one hundred twenty five, if bitcoin reaches parity with gold, that's eight hundred thousand dollars per big in. So I think that a lot of orders of big coin are going to be long term holders. And we see this in the charts, big whales holding more than a thousand coins. They haven't moved a lot of their coins around to exchanges this year when .

you think that could be hit eight hundred thousand.

Oh, if I numerals, I would have be on this show. Like order of magnitude .

means is just like years is a decade. I think I think it's years.

I think the big question is what are the big structural shift? So I just want to talk a really briefly about market microstructure because it's really important bitcoin etf, really easy way for people to access bitcoin, but they're buying spot s exposure, right in a really easy rapper. We have a microstrip gy.

What is microstrip gy to crazy value? Because you can buy options on microstrip gy. You right? It's a really clean way to trade long and short without needing the capital that you need to trade the C M. Futures product, which is cash settle and requires you to post colleran.

The real question is what is going to be the right worth? Really easy for people to allocate to crypto u and deploy a wide variety of strategies is when IT comes to bitcoin, people have different preferences. And I think the real question is, when is market microstructure going to accommodate not just tens of billions of flows, potentially hundreds of billions of dollars a day in trading volume from people who want to trade spot options and other sort of more optimistic ted strategies?

right? Melt and we ve got to leave with there. Thanks so much. It's always great to see you about and demos um and obviously you know we mentioned but and talk about coin base and Robin hood being real benefit res of all of this whether be bit corner the me action yeah I mean to current point.

if you're institutional investor and you need to bit going for whatever reason, I mean going basis the place for custody and a whole host of other things. So that makes total sense to me. I know a lot of folks have been really focused on the retail.

And again, there's lots of different places to do that now. And with the utf, I just make one point of the microstrip. gy.

If you look at december expiration, the stock is trading at three hundred and forty dollars. The three hundred and forty straw, you put the call premium and to put premium together two hundred dollars. And I just said it's a three forty strike call.

okay. So just do the math there. I mean, there's some things that are getting very out of lack on a pricing standpoint in the last few times. If you were to buy a bitcoin parabolic move like this, and you know to this extent, it's kind of move, it's probably a tough time to do IT unless you're willing to average down for a while and you have a long term time rising.

I just wonder if the hood is sort of a virtuous circle cycle and that who oh hood customers are probably also a lot of them. Hood owners of the stock, right, as well as bitcoin, cypher currency owners as well as, all right, things are going great. So that leaves a little bit more money for speculative my game, stop whatever IT might be sort of of you know, it's a big party going on on hood right now.

Speaking of trump, des tesla shares ratings another nine percent just today, now up nearly forty five percent since the election, adding more than three hundred million dollars as market cap in that time that is more than one chef on a number of wall street animals raising the Price targets on the evy maker, expecting a trump White house to help with any regulation road blocks facing the company.

We've had had the success discussion before in terms of what is this pricing and the most expensive of the max seven on the four P E. Base, this guy. But there is a lot being pricing terms of the favor that elan must will be able to curry from trump with house.

I think he goes back to what tim said earlier about the voting is still going in, in terms of the market. I think tesla, obviously one of the biggest series, again, you after they reported earnings, I think collectively, we thought I was going to test the stock that two sixty five love, which was a prior high number of times this year. And last year IT did exactly that.

Then you had a pretty significant pull back, almost down to two forty. So that was intact. Obviously, the election change, the entire thing. Now at this current Price, by the way, we traded three times Normal ime today, something to keep in mind, but we should be able to take out just on that moment on the prior all time high, which was basically made anything three years ago this week. So that is the love I think you have to look forward.

This point we've learned over the years is that valuations test, I don't matter and IT just doesn't matter. And so you also notice how it's totally ally separated itself from the mag sex who really uniformed today was not a great day for mega captured, in fact.

No, I think that's the case where but but the dynamic on tesla, if you want to get into again, for the people that don't want to call a car company a, there's only so much that I think even all of the support and tell ones that could come from a trump presidency in terms of border dynamics, in terms of at least being aggressive against the chinese, possibly keeping chinese eb imports out of this country, making easy protest, little to pick where they want to manufacture, and probably not get here with the same terrace as everybody else. How much can you Price into the stock? But again, this is the stock that before the election came up, this was a story about five quarters out, no one thought tells you could give you anything. And they gave you profit, building gross margins. And the last numbers on october twenty third, that really surprised people as .

part of this yeah we know from the last administration, trump does not mind picking winners and losers, right? And so when you think about this one, I mean, he's also talking about getting rid of these E V tax credits here. They're not really talking about terrace.

He's also inviting byd, which is overtaken you tesla in revenues and deliveries and the whole thing to build cars here to avoid those terrorist. Well, that's going to demme detroit. If you think about that, right, it's going to be a greater competitor to tesla.

So the last ago to say I get IT, right? So the stock is rilling because of the regulation issue of full self driving. If autonomy of these are the big over hands, and that's what you're valuing the stock on.

We had Kathy wood on last week. That's what she's talking about. She's thrown like multiple true. I don't our market cap. So at the end day, against three hundred billion dollars in a week that doesn't seem particularly natural is pulling forward. I think a lot of excitement about .

these other technologies here is a private prison stocks, geo group and corrective, popping once again today, but present, like trump tapped informer acting ice director tom home. And as as waters are, the socks are each up more than eighty percent. In the last week, I had to mario go or see, you see the image. Vers is reporting the latest editions to the trump administration. A lot has been done in a short of minute times .

of a man yeah, that's right. Meal list that they're moving quickly at the trump transition and rule contrast between what's happening this year and what happened after trumps first election back in twenty sixteen, in which there was a chaos on the transition this time around. Much more disciplined, much more organized.

They spend some time planning for this. We ve got a couple of new names today, including lee zeldin, the congressman, former congressman who is now going to be E. P, A director resealed in sending out a twice, saying, we will restore us energy dominance, vitalize our auto industry to bring back american jobs and make the U.

S, the global leader of A. I. We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water. Trump also naming, at least defending. The member of congress to be uh ambassage to the united nations um and Stephen Miller is gonna be deputy White house uh deputy what chief of staff he's going to be focused on domestic policy issues. He's a hard ler or immigration.

One of the few names here that was involved in the first trump administration, so much turn over in the trump administration, even during the first administration and since then, in terms of the personal around Donald trumps, even Miller, though a long time trump aid, the sort of the ultimate hard liner and immigration, and that clearly sends a signal where this administration is gonna in terms of living up to the president. Alex promises on immigration guys, also a whole host of names that we're still waiting for, possible treasury pick, possible U S, T, R. pic.

There you see some of the the names lindeman, IT man, possibly for sector of commerce. There's a lot out there that we still don't know. But as I say, they are moving quickly in at mara lago a about .

you are aim and thank you aim drivers, I guess treasures secretary .

commerce, you looks like you have a comment.

No, no. Love .

was hope.

He does.

Smiling was a market. One guy that said, history doesn't repeat, but right? Well, up a chart of G, L. Go back about five years and look at where the stock was in two thousand and sixteen before the election was a fifteen dollar sock president.

Candidate trump gets selected to goes from fifteen, about thirty one, by the spring of seventeen, gave the entire move back. You're seeing history repeat itself right before eyes. Now, if you want to play for another three dollars a stand, would they have at IT? But this is the happening exactly like I did eight or so years ago.

Alright, coming up, two farmer named, heading in very different directions as advising its worst day since the pandemic and burst mie, setting fifty two week the new drug trial data that brought on this move next, and a semi shipping half taiwan semi falling as regulators order the company to stop sending chips to china. What I can mean for the semi de, as well as us china trade relations when fast money return.

This is best money with moistly right here on cnbc.

C, N, B, C has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday. Markets, money and more from wall street to main street. m. Cnbc, Jessica adding, follow and listen to see nbc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to fast money. A, B shares plunged today after the biosphere m's proposed schizophrenia a drug failed to show results and face two trials. Ser and jellico's has the details in jela.

Yeah well is a disappointing day here for a bee. The company saying that is experimental schizophrenic y and drug failed to show a statistically significant compared to proceed o in two phase two trials. Now there's a couple things going on here.

First, the drug didn't perform as well as IT was supposed to, and also people who are in the baseball group did Better than we expected them to. Either way, this is a big disappointment for abb, especially because the company went out and spent nine billion dollars to acquire this drug through the acquisition of Sarah altha appetite s. Now on the other hand, this is a big boon for bristol mier squid.

They have a satoh renne and drug that just got approved in september. And I was the thinking was that they would have a little bit of head start and then ultimately, they would face competition from MV. But now IT looks like they will be there alone with this new type of it's the funny drug is the first of its kind in decades, the first new innovation that we've seen in this space. So a really big day for these two companies.

mossa and IT really a validates real mires purchase, but IT also serves to questions some of the other the acquisitions that have been made that had been sort of question. I mean, you have this example for a vy with this failed drug fires or had global therapeutic moa fela cycle exceeded drug, which completely failed. They basically had to write off. And i'm sure there are others that i'm not even thinking about in terms of when this emini wave start, you ve got to think that these larger companies will start thinking about what access their buying and whether or not they should take a risk and something that face two or face one.

And it's a really interesting point because, again, this is early. They went out. They did this deal before the face to data.

Where is bristol waited until this? Up until this is this gets a fannia drug. Was in front of the F.

D. A. They were waiting forward to be approved of, and they paid about fourteen billion dollars for that. And again, its drug development, things are always going to be up and down.

And especially with this drug, was interesting is that IT was part of some Fisher drugs that went being capital, turned this into a company, and then I got sold. And so last year, fister looked a little bit silly that they went all these assets. But now today, it's probably looking a little bit Better. So it's just how IT goes in this industry.

Militia and delicate thanks and delicate apples, Carry your own envy and .

burst to wire, which net that was, nothing happened, but a lot happened. Interesting to the twenty five billion dollar market cap loss in ivy. I don't know that the purchase Price plus the eleven billion dollars that brito was up, maybe I don't know that seems okay that uh, I mean, this is always the the sort of risk though in the acquisition, right? You can never buy IT and with certainty. So I don't know. I think we will still see acquisitions happened anyway because you know the big ones just have to grow and that was still happened, but and the .

big ones make bigger acquisitions. And so as tim Fisher, as i'm reported here, in other words, this is a case for that season acquisition. Last year, melly, you brought the separately on a phone call where we all had IT and IT was a forty three billion.

I think there was a forty nine billion, forty three billion dollar acquisition that is ultimately ppos to be by twenty thirty, part of a collection of acquisitions that will produce almost thirty billion in new revenues for visor as they see a lot of pipeline fall off and a lot of exclusivity, I should say. But the case really is, as you think about what they paid to be a player in oncology, there are still a lot of layers to that acquisition that are unclear. So again, if you are a bigger company, you have to make a bigger splash.

And that's where sometimes these moves actually become more difficult right now. No one really knows how fast they continue to enforce these numbers and restate. Um but I still think it's something that the market does not believe.

but for breakfast. So I mean, add the peak sales that, that AV y drug was also to to the peak sales that consensus has right now for the potentially right? Yes, there will be north of five billion there still.

Yes, and there's a lot of room to go in terms of that story. I mean, by poor in this world is very difficult. Marchers had a trial that was shelved because I didn't meet the efficacy they were looking for.

So it's not just envy. So I like brutal. We've liked this for while there's a lot of runway just evaluation alone.

But evy, this was never a story about this bipolar drug, in my opinion, was a nine billion dollar bed that they lost. They could write that down to the three hundred billion doa company. Look at the quarter they reported on october thirty.

I think it's what is the sky rizal and and the other one you see, revolution ke see or something rainbow, you see the commercial all the time. You don't, but they crushed in terms of the numbers. And now you marry their third biggest drug. So don't run away from abv here. I think it's just an oversold condition.

There's a lot more fast money to coming here. It's coming up next.

A delivery hot in the semi space has regulators tell chipmakers to stop shipments to china, the impact on those names and what that means for U. S. China trade relations, plus a wild run for stocks as markets keep up their post election rally. But is is too late to take part in the move will debate you're watching fast money lie from the next that market side in time square. We're back right after this.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday, markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I, C, N, B, C, Jessica, adding a follow and listen to C, C, business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to fast mont win semi conductor shares falling today after reuters reported that the chipmaker was ordered by us authorities to stop AI chip ships to china. The news coming after what of taiwan sami's products was found in a hallway chip set last month. Other major chipmakers also slightly today, NVIDIA, AMD, broadcom, intel l in qualcomm, all finishing lower to start the week. Daniel, looking at this.

yeah I mean, this is something that we've poured for a while. There's a black market for these chips. They're in their way into chinese electronics.

I guess the most important thing here, as far china is behind the us. In the designs in the life here. So pretty interesting stuff in the fact that this is coming out right now.

I know that the U. S. Government and commerce department, or wherever they made these sorts of proclamations before. But that does have the potential to kind of ratchet up the kind of dialogue with china at the time where we also have the new administration considering sixty percent tariffs, ross, the board, that sort of things. So is IT definitely one to keep a close?

Ison, yeah. I mean, the chip sector across the war d gave up some of the gains made last week.

I did. We've talked about this is not made new highs to the S M. P.

For a long time. IT really goes back to june. D, kind of a double top. And if you for one of these people that like he those formations, you might have one here.

I think we've been kind of sideways and I think in videos kind of hung tough like the new kids. But I do think it's a case where you have to be watching this leadership. I'm not sure you can get this kind of leadership at a mean stocks, and I think we're going to need this back.

I'm not sure if this is all this I want tell me news is, you know this issue is the promise of A I really there we're going to see when when in video reports and it's had a huge drum going into this.

That's true. It's interesting. So the incoming president's rhetoric around taiwan, they can have to pay for their own defense, which means taiwan, I think, is going to one up buying f thirty fives and patridge middles es from the united states, to show that you, we're willing to play ball, which is going to infuriate the chinese. So you start to play this through and wonder how the whole thing shakes out, which been the existential risk to taiwan semi, and maybe in video of the whole .

time coming up another round of records. But what if you are missing out on the latest rally? How should you position yourself if you've so far and stuck in the sidelines? Burger sandlings catering a simili. We will join us next to layout what to do now and where he is seeing the biggest opportunity that is next. When best one you return.

miss a moment of fast catches. Any time on the go, follow the fast money podcast. We're back right after this.

great.

Welcome back to fast money stocks to continue in their post election rally that dw jumping three hundred points, closing above forty four thousand for the first time, the S N P closing above six thousand for the first time in the nas, accepting a fresh record close as well.

Shares of blue and brains dropping more than nine percent analysts at Raymond James downgrading the owner of outback stake us and cara saying near term visibility is worse than anticipated, shares a pinch of four percent. Wedbush upgrading the section now perform, saying they believe the company is executing as user engagement and motivation strategies well. Analysts also saying its recent posters ning was overdone and some after hours action.

Shares of live nation jumping after posting earnings of beat expectations in iac also reported results to comply, saying they are considering spinning off its eighty five percent ownership stake in ani with markets records. Or next guy says IT may be too late to jump on board the equity train, but it's not too late for bonds as springing and organ standing. Private wealth management catering I careering to have you with. I'm assume that a lot of clients are calling really interested in the markets and you're saying too late.

Well, absolutely. There is always uh, the figure of missing out, especially for bond investors with the real rates higher, they see their portfolio under performing while there is this historic running up in the market and S N P hitting a six thousand mark. But in hour of you, you did. The key is not to be chasing the rally and taking your time and staying the course and you know focusing on quality.

But bonds, you say, have room to run. Where where in bonds do you like?

Well, specifically in baLance is important to keep out duration and staying midd to sort d and once again in making sure that, that the uh exposure is to quality. And investors are forgetting that in a winter in baLance are in for the long run. So the biggest mistake they can to make is when they question whether they should have been in stocks right now. This is not the right, right way to think about IT you. They should stay true to the acid location because bonds absolutely have a potential to do well, especially with the red cuts on the horizon.

Hey, canary attempt. It's great to hear your perspective. I guess how to make the question is, should investors though, who have missed out be a new indicated so kind of average cost into the equity market of the next three to four months? So you said don't chase IT here, but but you do want to be locating to a diversified portfolio over the next three to four months.

So is that really just about the timing of this of year if you're underway? Equity here is really what I want to get into because you're talking about the allocation to fix income. And no, you're not toneless ly moving in around today. But would you like to have a Better allocation if know if all things were equal? Risk to risk over the next three to four months .

will absolutely you when you look at the market right now, you know it's it's hard to resist the temptation, but market is up five percent just in last um naturally because the expectation is you know the excitement over the deregulation and tax pats and I love that is true, but it's going to take some time to play out. So for investors that need to put some money to work and are looking to enter the market, IT is absolutely not too late. They just have to do gradually. They have to dog our average buy on dips and stay with quality, stay you know with very care, stop making favor sectors like financials, like industrials um and you stay the course really be the well diversified portfolio, not just here in the U S, but also internationally.

Caterina, the I W M, traded to multi IT, sort of got towards levels we last in the fall twenty twenty one. You like financials within the small caps. Financials play a huge role. So understanding that not all small cap etf create an equal, is there a place there in your portfolio? Well.

absolutely. When we will look at financial specifically, when we go back to january of twenty two, which was the peek of the laws sable market financials, arab five percent, I M thirty twenty percent during this time, while S N S up twenty five. So we still like valuations. We like the positioning financial sector is one, one of the healthier stages we've seen IT in while after the financial crisis because of the capitalizations that we are seeing plus the deregulation in the fact that the length activity is being picked up as well as the emi, you know, we see IT as resulting in a high profitability and competitive advantage.

Can you Carry thanks for being on in case you were working and missed our a block, which was an entirely discussion about bitcoin, encrypt o currencies. Are your clients wanting and allocation in that? Do they have an already what are you seeing? Well.

a lot of clients are definitely curious, especially you know again, the plans that have not had exposure to the sector yet. It's hard to ignore the news. And what we point out to them is that you know the sector comes with extremely high volatility. It's not usually ported with your more traditional asset classes. So we tell them to thread carefully and once again can gradually invest and elected a specific allocation that maybe you know would not position the portfolio in the to to experience risk because you know those who have been invested in bit point point, some time we've seen IT come up, but we also see significant declines.

Caterina, a great to see you. Thank you for your time.

Thank you for having .

me catarino Simona Morgan stanly. Um so echoing sort of what we said in the about in terms of you may miss a lot of the games, but still you're thinking that there could also be a little bit here.

Well.

I get back to the weight machine versus the voting machine. I think that's really where Katrina's, I think you've got a case where there there's there's certainly arguments in favor of objectors that have been under performing for a couple years that were the S P V. So the value part of the sp, I mean, money centre banks for the most part don't look expensive here, but they had a very big run.

You have to assume that there going to be rerating on a multiple basis. So part of the argument for owning equities is we are any sideways rates environment with at least inflation under control. And we are seeing productivity gains and we are seeing E, P, S.

gains. Yeah, that is interesting. You just focus. It's not just big money centre banks or investment banks is obviously small and mid cap banks that are just kind of raging again.

If this is about deregulation, who kind of knows what happens here? It's really, I mean, in my opinion, really hard to chase. But I think the most interesting thing I W on the market today was obviously talked about semmes in the rotation out there.

Look at the ig v, the software E T. Maybe they can pull that up. I mean, that thing broke out and it's going up in the straight line. And a lot of the names in their self force that is the largest holding, and that's just going up parables, ally in the last few days. So it's interesting to see the rotation in the market because know some of the stuff is going sidewise. I suspect the max seven x tesla is probably going to under perform for a while and was going to move in these names that might benefit from deregulation.

New term know a business israel doing well catering as private wealth management business at Morgan stanly, I got to think is just crashing IT right now.

caterina.

I know .

rice .

katina.

I think, but spelling arina .

and then it's catched both I think actually that we need .

ever back yeah .

I more cat.

Are coming up, dots lifting off and ending a fresh all time high, the rest of the travel trade coming along for the ride. So could this group be the ticket to more gains in your portfolio? Will debate that next was home deeper result on deck. The socks is under performing the broader market this year with kin. Tomorrow's report help prepare this lagging name that trade and fast money return.

Welcome back to fast money airlines. Socks taking off delta four percent today and riling more than sixty percent in just three months. The socks closing at a record for the first time in over five years. Southwest united airlines and american airlines also hired today. Tell me point of this one up today.

Well, it's the seventy percent move up that every day low on August faith. So it's hard not to see IT. And and again, we talk about airlines cks being the greatest trade dogs and in the world dency by the door.

But the case of delt airlines and really the whole sector, what you are seeing, what we just got in their their third quarter numbers is growth margin improvements by like one hundred and fifty basis points over where the street was, I think, and even some of the most some optimistic, you've got an investor day coming up. You've got a dynamic care where I think there's more good news to be sprinkled out there. And you ve seen some supplied capacity side supplied discipline for their own lunch, which means the other community can actually upgrade these. I think they're .

going in higher. I mean, they're entering a good season for travel here. Um at this point, if consumers are feeling good about the economy, but the stock market that they .

will be spending hundred percent, tim just mentioned delta go back five years and this is where we're up to and there was a lot of reasons be optimistic. And I think it's an november twenty of that analyst or investor day. Mean, there's a lot of no pun intended runway left for the stock that they broken out of the range it's been in for quite some time. There's no reason to sort to pull .

the rip cord yet coming up home deep on dept. Rer r after ports before or what to expect in this results. Next best one .

is back to you.

Welcome back to fast money home deepa delivering third quarter numbers before the bell tomorrow. The home improvement in sock ready seventeen percent of for the past three months. But analysis, the company could report in a strike quarter of declining same store cells, a trend they do not see reversing until mid next year. We had mortgage rates moving in favorite of the consumer and then not moving in favorite the consumer during this period. So that's interesting.

I think that's huge. I think we d might have a charge. This is home deepo after the last couple of earnings and then the ten year, which is just roughly used for longer to bond.

You can see when the ten year was back, the level that IT is now the stock is lower. This doesn't bode well for existing homes coming onto the market, more transactions and the ref. I, if we had lower rates, that you would see more refine and that, that, that money is often used for some kind of innovation.

So those two things don't bode well. And I think the C. P. I tomorrow sort of doesn't matter. I think it's what's the CPI going to be going forward.

And is the friends cutting is the friends cutting plan kind of slow down? I think so. So that's that great.

I am long. I'm not that wildly optimistic. I mean.

valuation doesn't boat well for either. If you think about IT made single digits earnings and sales growth expecting this year and next tracking about twenty seven times this year, twenty six times next, that's perfect. That to me, IT doesn't make a lot of sense .

given the headwinds you just .

laid out the chart here.

who's that to .

path on or partha, but go back four years and look at where homeless ep people made its all time high and look at where IT is now. So the currents point, I don't think the set of is particularly good, valuation is not completely compelling. And I think you've got a sort of look for downside here and buy a cheaper.

I did have a couple hurricanes in the mix, which could help a little bit.

I think. So although you know there's only so much masking tape and plywood, I think the driver here is probably going to continue to be where homework ity loans are going to come back a love, but property values are going to go higher up looking for a reason to buy home depot weakness. Member, this is the stuck that's gone from three, twenty five, four, fifteen is how to pull back. I'd love to buy a lower. I am sure i'm going to and I should treat IT a premium.

To your point here, do you need to see rates come down in a definitive way, in a lasting way in order to be, you know, want more long of home people?

Yes, to be more long, right? But long loses. Well, the same bed, basically. But no, i'd like to buy a cheaper and add to IT, but I don't think if rates do come down, I am not getting the .

chance before we get to break.

We get we have some time. Okay.

follow tim. See more A O because you're an impulse ire like he's buying flexible. He's buying drill.

You know .

who does own talking is that you are tim and you do talking? I thought, yes, cocked from years ago. Shi.

excEllent. So do you market with like the Green tape on each side?

And I about .

as I can .

set on there.

Okay.

I actually got this from talking back at .

the apartment of years time.

Okay, be not second .

career up. Next final traits.

Time for the final trade. Tim sea.

how about the l and blessed p lips start to make that move up for those earning? I think that chart is break up for the everything current.

Yes, meta has sort of been sitting out this rally, and I think I should participate. I like IT right here.

Yeah, oil approaching .

two year supporters, something like that. IT looks like a sale on any rally. And that dollar is not helping A U. S. O.

A lot of we have been together. You think .

like I.

so you think you know everything about .

the first SHE 偷 的 是 cock。

I guan be prised .

chicken. Not a nice thing to i'm capable .

of hacking.

You're capable a lot.

I believe IT itself. And of these overdone caukins .

things are often fast. Man money with tim crane starts right.

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