Trump’s Admin Taking Shape… And What To Expect Out Of Tomorrow’s CPI Report 11/12/24
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Life in the asx market size in the heart of new york city's, where this is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. China concerns what a couple hawkish fix for the next administration could mean for relations of beijing and for investments in the region. And countdown A, C, P, I want to expect from tomorrow's inflation print and how the markets could react.

Get thoughts from K B W C E O time me show plus amine shirt slim down after anal spot something strange in the data how to play in video your all time highs and a company that spending A I can optimize your portfolio I million to leave to you like from see your beat and six on the death tonight tim sy, work c grasso by an icon and die ami. We start off with markets taking a bit of a breather today. The dw dropping nearly four hundred points, two big trump trade beneficiaries, transports and small caps.

S also done sharply. Meanwhile, bitcoin briefly touching a new record high ninety k before pulling back a bit coming up the first, the major appointed by the president like that could reshape the relationship between the U. S.

And china. President trump is said to have chosen senator mark rubio as is a point for secretary of state. This follows the announcement that for a congressman, mike walk will take the role of national security advisor.

The announcement showing that what trump said he is going to do in the campaign trail is coming to ferient. We will get the reaction from beijing in just a moment. We start off of them in java in west pang beach with the latest on the trump transition aimed mossa.

That's right. We still don't have an official announcement of marker rubio as secretary of state yet, so we'll wait for that designation to come. But we expect at this point that he will be trumps pick for secretary state in ruba is somebody who is as hawkish on china pretty much as you can get in washington, D.

C. These days. He is somebody that I know a relatively well.

We interviewed him for our documentary last year on chinese corporate test against american companies. SAT down with him. And its counter is democratic counterpart on the senate intelligence committee.

Rubio is a deeply skeptical of the chinese government and of its intentions regarding the U. S. Economy, so watched for that to play out. A if he does end up a secretary of state at four, Donald trump, also commerce and mike walls, as you say, a the design as national security advisor. We now have an official statement from walls that he put out just a few minutes ago.

He says, together with president trump in his team, we will confront the evolving chAllenges of today's world and hold firm against those who would harm our way of life. Our nation deserves nothing less than bold, unwavering leadership, and that's what he will deliver. No specific reference to china though, in that world's statement moist.

And one other thing I think about with this trump administration that's coming together in terms of its china policy is the unclear role of elan musk. All of this, we don't know exactly what musk we will do in terms of this overall government efficiency commission that he has talked about, how that will look, what kind of authority he might have or not have with IT. But musk, somebody who does a lot of business in china, has been reluctant to size chinese leadership in the past.

He attended uh, the summit meeting in san Francisco was sheep ing ping that I was at last year um and he is somebody who has seen as someone who the chinese government would be likely to lean on hard if they if they needed to, to influence washington. So how does all of that play out in the mix of an administration which is as hard line on china as we have seen to date? That's an open question.

I know it's impossible to guess, but IT, are you are you saying that maybe elan must could sort of have a temporary effect to these hawks that he's appointed?

I mean, it's possible, it's possible we have to see what he does, right? His role is defined right now. He's an unpredictable character in the world, so who knows? But he he has a lot of business in china. He is dependent on china, the chinese market in many ways.

And he is somebody that chinese would would presumably reach out to in order to express their view certainly of what washington is doing, and maybe see him as I can do IT, or somebody who they can at least get to hearing from a given elands sweeping power. Now as this new administration is taking shape, that does raise some questions about, you know, what will his role be? Use of each other. We just don't have any information on what he might be saying behind close doors on china, but the incentives are certainly worth taking a look at.

sure. aim. Thank you. Amy n jewels and west pomp b trust for more on how the appointments of ruby on water are being received in china, let's get to see mcs unus .

u unus Melissa. The chinese foreign ministry hasn't yet commented on rubio or walls, but the two are seen as some of the most aggressive hawks on china. Senator marco rubio has been sanctioned twice by beijing.

He's been highly critical of china's handling of human rights in hong kong in the far west muslim area of shenyang k. The senator is also a vocal supporter of taiwan, which is chinese government claims as its own. It's unclear how the sanctions would impact ruby ability to engage with the chinese since he's board from this country.

As for walls, today, chinese media focused on his push, along with rubio, to expand america's american strategy to combat china's naval presence in the region. Despite the tough stance. There's a question of how hard line that you will be president like trump has at times signal a weaker commitment to taiwan, and his supporter elon musk has business interests and investments in china that could lead to sparing matches over foreign policy within the trumpet administration.

Melissa unus, thank you. Unus un, in beijing for us. I think the the mention of elon muscles, a very interesting one because he is the of the only foreign automakers er who has a fully owned factory in china.

And there must be a reason for that. There must be some sort of godwit towards tela m whatever reason IT is he was able to clear that hurdle. So could he be a temporary of to these hawks?

I don't know the answer. You know, you think about, I mean, think about what president like trump is said about taiwan and reluctance. And i'm choosing that word on of this right word to potentially back them up.

Got forbid something to happen and you enough to sort of pay their way. Mark rubio been on the other side of that coin. I mean, he's been a china hawk before. Code, I think, is unis just said sanctions twice barred from the country. You know, you put those three people in the room and I don't know what what this sort of the game plan is in terms of china. I'll say this think if you think IT through terms are probably more robust and people think which I think is inflationary, which I think is one of the reasons by yells continue to go higher.

I think the CPI number tomorrow, which is not going be affected in any way. What's going to china policy though is, is part of the story here because this is all inflation. There's a part of china that I think we all don't recognize how important they are to the globe economy.

At times at least. We just had A P, P, I, number, which contracted two point nine percent at a time a few days back that was disappointing. And ultimately, look at the performance of anything resource related in, commodity related in.

There's a lot of reasons why this trade has gone sour over the last, say, three to four weeks. Some of its a stronger dollar, but some of IT is china. So to the extent that when you look at the performance of chinese equities, whether you look at the F, X, I or the k web, alibaba, who reports this week, so is J, W, J, D account.

The bottle line here is there's so many different time measures and cross currents. And whether we're actually trading china in the short term or long term is a big question here. And I just also say back to china, you know how they are reacting to this historically.

The cliche is that china plays the long game um and that they're not going to react in the short term. But there has been a lot of provocation um over the last medium term. And at some point, I think china's going to make a stronger move.

So I do think the most inclusion and does perhaps raise some doubt around alignment of interest. As you mention, you know, he has business there. And the other point is essentially back up and echo what pretty much has been a very black and White hard line stance as IT as IT pertains international relations.

So here, you know, as guy and tim have both pointed out, you worry about some of the inflationary pressures that would be the result of terrorist here. And here you have musk, on the other hand, that perhaps might be a sounding board of of reason. And then that takes me into what are going to be the fiscal stimulus that have been highly criticized coming out of china, in beijing.

So to me, IT all makes a lot more since in terms of how we have not seen the bazooka effect or a bus type of you know infusion of capital, our fiscal stimulus that, that we would have expected and that I think china balls have been looking for. And I think perhaps I think he probably leave the some tip for that. And that also raises questions for me, uh, for us retailers and for the supply chains. That would me, to me be much more than inflationary concern.

I think that marco rubio has been as big a hack on russia as he's been on china. And when you look at who's .

going to to make people feel Better about.

yeah, think where i'm going from here. I think when you say elon musk will settle down the voices or moderate the voices, trump is actually a strategic hawk on china. He compliment she's ing ping and then he hits she's ping, but he always compliment him.

So I don't think he's as hawker ish as we think he really is. What he says he's going to do and what he's going to do two different things. I think .

it's all posturing. I think it's it's fascine that this goes down on a day when intel's vice chair was meeting with the the vice premier, the vice commerce minister of china, talking about us china relations and and also investment. We would be willing to take investment or support investment by intel into arctic p industry.

This is all going on. These headlines are coming through at least early this morning from china, where we've got arguably one of our most important ship companies, whether they performed on the field that we are not. Is a lot of strategic interest is being put towards in til and around IT.

And here they are. And all the parties were saying the right things, including china, saying they want have a healthy relationship and that they want to have a long term and stable and sustainable relationship as relates to tech. Um whether that happens, probably not the sure.

By the way, just to be a quick the trade I owned alibaba think tim still owns a in my trade, I went around one hundred dollars. I average today because I think a lot of this stuff is set up for a baLance right now. We're getting the worst news strategically. I think we're set up .

for a about all about me thing. But when David tepper said you own everything right, it's not now down. And I an he's probably going to wind up being right, but the timing of that announcement couldn't been worse in terms of the yark of the trade. I mean, polan, I bitrate over the last couple and you'll see me was right around one seventeen when those comments came out. And you see we've around trip .

the entire thing that trade was predicted on china's stimulus, right on big china stimulus. Does the art of the trade change with a very hard stand on tariffs?

I think that's a fair question. I think part of itself has been predicated on that. But I think I think china internet stocks, alibaba is specifically are far more insulated in the terf war than I think it's I think the bazooka of chinese money flows is bigger than the tariff b threat a closer to look .

at how the new administration code impact to U. S. China relations, let's bring in shahada chazov he sees me, kai.

He's the imaging director of china based book international. Shei, great to have you with us. Um so what do you make of the appointment? Do you see the policy shaping taking shape at this point?

Well, look, um if IT is going to be senator rubio, I think that's a very, very strong signal to the chinese. Not only because he's been horicans very hawkish on china, but if you look at the legislation that come out, which has been very, very tough and I think actually very, very good enterance resource oriented, if you think about IT, that's been coming out of the rubio office over the last many years now. So I think I we're looking at very tough china policies definitely from the state department if IT is senator rubio. And then of course, we've got the trade team that still being put together.

Does this tell you anything about tariff s and how hard they could be?

Or no, I think the tariff question is going to rest with, I think, the bob blight highers of the world, his advice and the team that he's putting together and those discussions probably go very, very aggressive and very, very alive between thanksgiving and Christmas.

She's got to think a lot of art. It's cares a whole lot of about U. S. Companies doing business in china. So and again, we've waited so long for some kind of reaction.

I just mentioned before I trying to place the long game, and but we've had enough now that I would be a medium game response to actually push back on U. S. companies. Do you think that could be coming? Or or will IT ren will be a result of some kind policy act in this administration is coming in?

I I think absolutely look, the chinese tool kit is far more limited than the american toolkit, and american companies are absolutely one of the levers that they could push. So there's a big target on the back of american companies. No doubt they're struggling as IT is in china right now because of the economic slowdown. If beijing decides that he wants to hurt trump by going after american companies, they can most certainly do that.

Do you think that china is weaker than we perceive IT to be at this point when we're looking for the bazooka? Does the bazooka exist? Or are they so much more uh, in decline than we think they are? Or is that is that am I just making that up to make myself fulfilled? Professor.

my big problem in dc and on the street is that some of the barrick h narrative on china sometimes gets overplayed. But here's a deal. You know what you just said?

The bazoo ga is there. But if they fired this so called bazooka next year, the year after, because they want to compete with terrace, that's not really stimulus. You're just using money to run in the same, you know, run in place or maybe you're running a little slower. It's make preventing you from running too much slower. So I think that has is a very hard cap over there.

Let's go to time one for a second. And they going to be forced in this whole game of chest by bombers from the united states, and you know, arsenals like missiles and those types of things to show trump they're serious about defending themselves. I mean, is that what this game is about that was .

so extent that's a big chunk of what we're trying to get done. If you talk to policymakers in dc were concerned about the taiwan an invasion in twenty twenty seven, as we ve said before, the big concern and dc is not just that, just china invent, but do the taiwan is want to fight and the appetite for that right now is very low and and many people in dc are very concerned about that.

What is the incentive for china not to punish U. S. companies? Just to trying to understand the other side of that. I mean, is economic not destruction, but hurt on their part. Will they feel I mean, I seem foreign CT investment would really grind to a halt, but it's already prety slow as IT is.

So yeah, it's slowing down. Look, you could treat them as in I like and of course, corporate amErica is china's biggest ally right now. So you could put that on the background and say, we don't go after you, but go back to dc and tell trump to back off.

I say, okay, she's that great to have you with that. Thank you. She's that cazi. Um so as a china trade change in your view or do you think that is are the terrorist of question mark in the china trade?

I mean, I I think the question is about the extent of the terrorist. I think know i'd be a bit foolish sleep at the will to assume that they are hope for the best cases where where they don't happen. I cern.

And my concern is around more effect s. Some of the international markets and what that blow back may be. And my concern is also about U.

S. Supply change. We are not a manufacturing company and we rely on that infrastructure or so. For me, these responses don't exist in a acute. And I think the response might, if you have come back to the supply train shocks of twenty twenty, a repeat of that is not what the U. S.

Consumer needs. Now alibaba reports on the fifteen thousand and twelve. So I guess next week early, I think your own alibaba here, I mean, to filled that gap that we created on the move higher and basically Brown trip the entire trade. I don't think the alibaba attra over by any stretch by itself.

The stock is too .

chep be being place up a long term holder, long term investor, bit of a trader. I do think the the story around china is one where right now sentiment remains about as low as I can get after the trade. Everyone who said that was trade nail IT but away let's be clear that is totally round trip. So IT was a trade um and alibaba, I will continue to say with forty percent the market cap and cash is not a china macro o call. I'll also not just quickly say hopefully the the seventeen trillion doll economy that china, I think we're underestimating the impact of what types to the world can do to the overall economy.

Coming after watching after hours action in today's session in the karts, a five oxide tal cava all in the move after morning, the details from the quarters ahead and a biotech beat downstairs of amgen droffs as one wall street from spot and interesting data in their latest trial report will talk to the who made that call next. Don't going where fast money is back into.

This is fast money with moistly right here on C, N, B, C.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I M C, N B C, Jessica adding a follow and listen to see abc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to fast money shares of agency, its war stay in over three years after report on the potential side effects of its weight loss drug maritime counter and covering data apparently hidden in the of maritime des phase one trial results. According to analysts, the data show a four percent decrease in bone miral density over twelve weeks for trial patients on the largest dose. For more, let's bring the analysts who wrote that note.

Olivia, a break. olive. Ya, great you with us. I'm curious how this happens. You get a spread sheet and you you hit a tab and you find that, I mean, nobody else is looking at this.

You know it's funny. It's this data has been out there since february and the data has been coming over for so many times. Um but you know we have a very really great team and and we look at things really closely and IT IT was a little bit of fluke, Frankly.

I basically right click on an excess, a excel spread sha and you hit on hide and a few more sheet pop up and it's something that nobody had been talking about. I don't think anyone had seen IT. Frankly, I think engines probably surprised that that someone founded and uncovered that I don't know if they I knew I was there.

Uh, but funny enough, it's it's all in the public domain 啊。 And so anyone anyone who don't even need a log in, this is the face, one nature, a article. I mean, you can look at IT, you can unclasp IT and that all pops up. Um so was a bit of a flute that we found that but definitely some important data. And of this is getting a lot of attention.

How does this impact your forecasts for maritime?

De, yeah I mean, look, the thing is we don't know how big of a risk this is. Uh they are having face this was from a face one data set, very small patient numbers um and and they do have faced two data that they're coming by the end of the year. It's in a lot more patients.

It's a lot longer follow up. So it's a fifty two study. Where's the face? One was only a twelve week study, so there are still a lot of unknown, but this does at a risk I mean, I will say this was a known theoretical risk around the before today um but now we actually have some date on IT.

Like I said, it's small patient number, so it's hard to know really how much weight put on these data. We don't know if IT plata, we don't know that will keep decreasing over time in a along study, you know engines also working on different tyres schedules further doing so, they may change their dosing, they may get IT right and and we may see less tolerability, less phone mineral density issues. Um but right now I think the read here is that I was a theoretical risk and now that there is some data behind IT IT just adds a little bit more validity .

to the place is IT possible that the bone mineral density loss was just coincident? Or does IT actually you mention is in the highest dosages? Is there are a less of a degree in the lower dosages which makes you you to believe that that that is causal?

Yeah there is there is IT. IT seems to be those dependent and a lot of that again has to do with the fact that in the higher dose you are seeing much steep decline um and and a bigger magnetite decline to so that a signal that IT probably is just dependent that IT probably is mechanistically related um but again, I mean unfortunate there are a lot of unknown. I think we'll get A A A Better picture of this drug totality once we have the these two data um that again, that'll be by the end of the year. I'm sure engine hopeful ly will address some of these comments around bond mineral density, but there are still just a lot of online to this point.

the seven percent decline and shares. What's you're take on that?

Yeah I mean, look, I I understand that um you are kind of base case valuation. If you strip out obesity is you get to somewhere around two fifty on the stock um obviously trading closer to three hundreds. So there is still a decent amount of A B, C value in the start as there should be.

I mean, we've been we've been very positive on the engine. We ve been very positive on the probability of success for their face to data. I would say today's today's data doesn't change our view, but IT does add more risk.

And and you know I I think at this point, you do have to have a very competitive profile and you do have to be able to overcome some of these hurdles. If you are gonna be A A leader entrance in this would be space, because, again, that there are other players and obesity. So the bar has been set right.

I'll live you. I thank so much for joining us. appreciated.

I live counter just .

shot right click on all your tabs you never know you're going to find but SHE said at two fifty, if you strip out obesity is still two fifty and it's training .

in three hundred mire the rigor, the work that did number one. I mean, they said they've come through a lot of things that I mean two fifty, it's interesting. You know, they just reported what I thought was a decent quarter on october thirty at the market, didn't like IT all that much. Valuation isn't completely stretched, but you maybe a lot of the premium in the stock based on the rounded side has been on the obesity thing. Two fifty gets to the April, though that's actually a pretty good place to get.

And I think you know I think when when he was pressed on that two fifty, I think it's probable you can probably find someone says two hundred, right? So two hundred and two fifty is probably flexible on that on the level to the downside. So you probably want to proceed with caution.

They also have a patent Cliff that seventy percent of their portfolio by twenty and thirty, that's probably twenty percent more than the rest of the space has. So I did speak I did a little bit of the Cliff notes. I spoke to jarod from a zoho and and that's where he is that he's at two hundred to two fifty as far as the downside.

it's international. Look across obesity. IT hasn't been a great three months and then it's been a period where these dogs have been running in some questions, not only about the next phase of of essentially these treatments and ultimately, the evaluation is, is really where I think investors are wrestling with. We Priced in so much of the addressable market, we've had five different assessments of the adjustable market and and also the anti plays and what that means for other industries. I think at this point, you're probably fading any strength.

You know, i'm going to try to be the the desk optimists here. And so depending on whether there about you stripping out that the obesity drug is two hundred or two fifty, looking at sixteen to thirty percent of additional marketing value, that's that's being a sign here to a to the obesity drug to me. The fact that you still have that backed and despite these, a face one trial data release tells me that the targeted justice market is not under the same pressure or perhaps should not be as concerning as well as we thought because of oversaturation of competitors and new insurance coming to the space. So for me, you know, looking at you, the novos of the world, I do think that there you know despite this going despite the fact there's likely some increased volatility, the the terms of probably supports the valuations here coming up.

All the aftermarket action instincts, spotify, accidental and cover all in the move after reporting the numbers out of the quarters, head and socks, taking a breather from their post election surge. Now all eyes aren't tomorrow. C, P, I, report how that inflation change will impact the markets. Next move and the feds next great decision. You're watching fast money life for the nasza mark aside in time, spare backside after this.

Cnbc has quick and easy to understand business news updates at the open midday and close every weekday markets, money and more from wall street to main street. I'm cnbc Jessica, adding to follow and listen to see abc business news updates wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome back to fast money to check on some of today's movers, home builders in the red toll in ardia horton and pulling all lower as interest rates stay elevated despite the fears recent rate cuts home deep, also warning this morning of a more cautious consumer due to higher mortgage rates. Meanwhile, shares a cruise Operator biking getting a boost and us at Morgan stanly upgrading the sock to overweight, saying the soc is lag disputes recently resulting in more tractive relative valuation and a host of after hours moves. Maple bear.

the parent of in bear, but is .

dropping I despite being the expectations a company giving a light adjustment, but I guide and spotify jumping after pointing a gross margin that beat expectations monthly active users also coming in above estimates. Oxen tal material of missing in revenue expectations found parent flutter higher after appointing earnings and revenues that beat expectations and cov a surging and strong earnings and sales.

The company also raised its full year outlook kova, now up about more than two hundred and eighty percent this year. That's unbelievable and share a spirit there are dropping after hours while journal reporting the company could file for bankrupcy within weeks. It's done forty two percent right now. You flight home builders died.

Well, home deep pulp, we thought a long term charge you've seen. We've been talking about this potential for a double top. Technically, IT is happen.

And the things they cautioned on or the things we've been talking about. So I think he's get a treat with a little bit of caution here in the home builders. And quite Frankly, if you are of the belief I am one of these people, the rate you are going to continue to go higher. Home builders are tough at here.

I think on the long side, yeah and it's a little bit so I am long viking holdings and I think they just have a limited amount of competition because there are a luxury cruise line and sort of backend. The compliment Morgan stanly gives them theyve lag the group and that's why it's helped evaluation. I'm so long i'm staying alone. But to guys point on home deepo, a lot of this was from the storms, too. So there's a lot of things that were ordered that might be a little bit of a pull far coming up.

All lies into our cpr reporters. Investors are away. Another key inflation gage.

What could the data mean for the feds? Next strategy ve K, B, W, C, O tomes me show, join us next for what to expect and whether the post election rally still has more room to go. No, go anywhere. fast. One is back .

into mr moment of fast catches. Anytime on the go followed a fast money podcast. We're back right after this.

Welcome back to fast, only the major averages taking a breeze er from their post election rally, the dial often nearly one percent, while the S F V five hundred and nazi close slightly lower, small caps getting hit hardest, the russia two thousand seeing its worst days in september following nearly two percent. But bitcoin reversed early losses, briefly traded above ninety k. It's up more than thirty percent since trumps win.

For more on what's next to the markets has breaking in time me show the CEO of kb w Stephen company time. Always great to see you. We are just talking in the break about how things have really changed. And so from your same point, what is the biggest thing that will change for your industry?

So I think we study the financial services industry. Number one is the fundamental are getting Better, mainly because the year curve is not inverted anymore. Remember, in the third quarter, we ended up the longest yield current version forty seven years.

So that has meant that for two years, banks had down learnings. The fundamental are changing. We're now expecting earnings to do very well for the next two years because Operating leverages back in the yellow curve is not invited anymore.

So that's the fundamental case. And then the other items, which is you no longer, I think, have to deal with an environment which was very aggressive from a regulatory perspective, and I think you're going have some policy shift. And hey, you want to look at the market about policy shift, Fanny, and friday, which which have fill up stocks, the trade, the stocks have doubled in a week and so of the preferred.

So obviously, the market thinks it'll be a policy change about housing in the united states with this election. Um and then you look at a group of stocks, the ema potius e um on average, the ema investment banks rup over sixty percent year to date with some of the stocks having doubled. And I think there's a whole idea that you're going to see the capital markets free up now that you don't have a policy. For example, it's been so opposed to ema, the nation.

You just answer my question. I mean, a lot of these banks, one would think, or eminent targets in this new administration. So think a lot of the run, not the entirety of the run, but a lot of the run is predicted.

So when congress changed the laws and mid eighties to allow in their state banking, it's been consolidation. What's interesting is that many years ago, the thought was the biggest banks were too big with. We've gotten bigger.

So the four big banks have forty percent of the deposits. The right thing to do is for these banks to have competition. And rather than allowing no ma, which means will be frozen in time and these four big banks will get even bigger, you've got companies like p, nc, U S.

Bank corp. And others who would like to be competitors or more of a competitor to the big four and they would like to consolidate, which, which I think has a lot of lot ject to IT. But you've done right.

But and you talk about the yell curve is not the bank friend, but how about the current environment? We talk about this great rally, but how if rates keep backing up the way they are, you've got a lot of banks that have rally that a rate of their liability sensitive names and the world was pricing in all kinds of rate cuts. I mean, and yet these things have rally even while rates have reversed and gone higher and rates could go higher. So what point are these trades off sides? Because some of them really are vulnerable and sensitive to higher rates and yet they're not responding.

And all right here, yes, look, are base cases that we get a december rate cut and then we're going to get a twenty five basis point rate cut every other meeting next year. That's what in our base case that leads us to believe we have eight percent earnings per share growth next year followed by twelve percent earnings per share growth the year after things that, that you mention. If it's a different pace, that may change that.

But i'll also tell you, we have near we have very low loan growth in our model. We have four percent loan growth. The reality is, is I think if there's a surprise, we may get more lone growth.

If that happens, that would offset some of that rate differential. In our opinion. In my opinion.

you mentioned before in in our conversation during the break that maybe banks will take a breather. I mean, it's been a really just toward runs since the election. Um but how do you know when to get in? I mean, if you've just spend on the side lines and a lot of people have a lot of people do risk before the election, they want to stay into the stand to the side.

Well, so there are, there are a couple of v tf. He could play. So uh, the a key bank index, large cap c, that's the K B W B or the key bank regional index, which is the K B W R R two etf that you could you could buy.

I would prefer the r the regional banks because I think they're gonna benefit more from the shape of the yellow curve. But you can play these ets, but there's still our ideas. So two of our favorite number one, as we like truest, one of the biggest banks in the nation for six divided and yield really positive, you get paid the weight trades at nine times twenty five earnings one day.

They could trade to twelve times earnings, in my opinion. Webster r financials, a similar company trading at a single digit multiple relative to twenty twenty five earnings. So so these are some of the things. So there are still stocks we think you can pick, but I wouldn't be surprised if we caught our breath. S, it's been so strong, but maybe if that happens, it's a chance to to start your position.

Time is always great to see you come by anytime.

Well, great to be with you.

A bw.

Steve been unbelievable. So congratulations for that entire team. But know what tim was. Time about rock quite is too kind to mention, I will.

At its peak of rates in the fall, bank of america, I think, had about one hundred and thirty billion doll holds to maturity losses on their baLance seat. Now rates worked in their favor over the summer, but now rates are going back up again. I think there's a reason why warn buffer is pairing down as bac.

And I think that's IT time .

about interesting piece about fdc reform and how you can support regional banks the you raise in the two hundred and fifty thousand doa threshold. I think it's a very interesting considering, you know the commercial lending aspect that seemingly has lagged and will continue to lag the ema and some of the refinancing and things of that nature. So I think that's interesting and that would definitely be a boon to the regional play.

Yeah, regionals are large.

Well, the way to made IT sound, you want to go to regionals and they're going to be more competitive. So I would have thought that you go large, they are going to go up up all the regionals, but the regionals are actually to go up up the small regionals. So when I look at the chart on U.

S. Bank, that seems the most compelling. He named p. nc. And truest IT looks like IT looks like this one, and webster IT looks like us. Bank has definitely lag the others that you mentioned.

I feel very comfortable in the money centre banks. And for the reasons that I think they are going to rate and because I think they diversified businesses, I just think you have to be very aware of what's happened in this rally so far and how rates of back we're talking every day that rates could go higher. Certain ly on the lone end, if not necessarily less, you less cutting on on the shorten.

And i'll say something else in terms of credit is grids. This is great for banks on some level. And and tom talked about the the loan dynamics, which are wildly profitable.

But credit spreads haven't been this tight since may of two thousand and seven. We've had a ridiculous rally even in the last three weeks on credit spreads. And it's something that at some point, I think you have to be concerned about some of that risk of things moving too far.

right, coming up and video earnings or just ever a week away to run away. A I leader is on a monster run, but does the options market believe I can continue to set up? Is next? And is A I about to take over finance? The one key use case that could be the technology is next frontier and how can shake up wall street right after.

Welcome back to fast money in video earnings due out after the bell next wednesday, and the AI darling's wild ride hasn't shown any signs of slowing. The sock is up more than twenty five percent over the past two months, close today down less than a percent from a record. Often, traders are anticipating a big move on an aim when results across the wires.

Michael has the action. Hey, mike, there yet. So the busiest single stock option traded, about three point three million contracts today, calls significantly outfacing post by about two point four to one right now.

The options markets, implying the move of about eight percent that's on the day they report next week. That's a little bit less than the nine point three percent or so that the stock has average. But there are some pokes that obviously believed that the rally could continue. We saw an enormous role. Actually, somebody sold out of a big position in the december thirty calls up and out to the february one forty eight calls, there was an outlay of more than one hundred and fifty million dollars in premium, making a bet that uh, the stocks strong performance could continue over the next couple months. Yeah band when you agree with that yeah.

it's hard to fight them. I mean, I really wish that I head and run up this this quickly in the earnings. That's always the concern and it's always volatile post earnings. But I think call up and all the way to play this given the recent run.

it's fascinating how the video really has blocked the rest of the sector though. Yeah, the rest the sector has been under a lot. It's not surprising except for the fact that they really have all taken to run along with video and video and reports next next week as we just went through. Um I think the dynamic going in the earning or maybe a lot of momentum that, that, that traders don't want to see, but I think the fundamentals s are telling you that people actually believe they don't have any issues. So good, that's going to be the key.

I mean, there is production should black. Well, I mean, if it's a smaller beats than what we become a customer to what happens, that reaction.

the stuff, I mean, the cell potential deceleration and smaller beats at twenty times next year's revenue is what you to give people somewhat pause, I think.

And then if you if you really think about IT, who's going to be buying that, the people that have missed IT, right? So i'm out of the name for the last forty dollars of IT, so will pull back on earnings. I think you wind up having your softer hands catch IT.

Who knows? mike? Thanks for that. My co. Coming up using A I to make trading decisions or next guest and A I platform that synthesizes all the data investors need in one place, he will explain how the software works and how clients are using IT.

And he just speak, speak at the cramer camp. Jam is getting inclusively with the sea of live nation. Catch the full interview to of the air mad money, more fast money into.

Welcome back to fast money A I doing your trading research or next gas as a city of a company that gathers information from c filings, earnings calls and outside research and put them into one place for investors for more on how IT all works space bright C E O and cofounder my cover my great to heavy with us this sounds too good to be true um can you walk us through how this works, how a user typically uses the platform and how you make money from that user?

sure. absolutely. We so bright wave as an a research platform that accelerate time insight for a busy finance professionals. A the the thing that we ve identified is that historic leave had um the the comprehensiveness, the meticulousness, the the time intensive ess of reviewing investment decision at Jason materials.

Um there's not been a tool that can help accelerate that process historically, and we just people at the problem. And so with language models, we see an opportunity for a uh technology in a system that's able to connect the dots across bodies of content that exceed the limits of human cognition. And so um you know we've seen brisk demand across financial services um from hedge funds to private credit teams of the larger institutions al asset managers in the world. And um you know IT is uh sometimes as simple is answering a quick question um but really what we're focusing is is on workflows.

Um so whether that's earnings call transcript review, uh try to understand certain changes and management tony and guidance um looking at comparables say we want to understand the E V space and how a riva and tesler have access to uh lithium and and you know what what are they talking about and how are they different um or even you know pride by investors who are looking at diligence rooms going into deals and and trying to uh understand uh thousands of pages of text um as quickly as possible and as accurately as possible. Um it's just not uh it's not been possible to have the technology that even takes a meaningful swing at that problem historical. And now now we have one .

just so I can understand, uh, the use case is Better if I been invested on using your platform. And I want to understand how management is talking about characterizing how inflation is affecting input cost, for instance. Um can I have to go through S C C violence ordinance transcend ts uh conference speeches at seta. So you're going across various inputs. So exactly.

So think about the what IT in finance professional will do to answer that question. You would say, well, how is that? How are macmaster economic factors impacting this investment decision?

What are the different considerations that would be relevant to getting conviction around this? What sources do I need to to praise myself of in order to really understand the problem and then organizing all of those findings into a narrative that supports a decision? Uh, we are able to mimic that workflow using language models.

And IT doesn't remove the role of human judgment. You still finance professionals are always going to access information. That's not entity zed. It's much more akin to an account at the seventies before the advent of computational spread sheet.

So like we have the analysis from canada t jerd on earlier on. And if you saw her and not, but he mentioned that the data that they found has been out since february. So my question to you is, does your company enhance wall street analysts or does IT replace them?

I think it's it's quality in the inanes bucket. Um it's just the reality that as I mentioned you when its professionals, it's a taste making its a judged exercise. It's understanding how our fund strategy connects to the facts that are disclosed in these regulatory followings are an diligence room. That's what is my pm uh, view on where the art is going, my call with uh management or that conference conversation I had, uh IT IT is really about automating away the tedium so that finance professionals can focus on the places in their work where they create the most value.

Right, mike? Or at a time this is fascinating to keep us supposal appreciate your time, my cover of bright wave. Um we had the sea of hudson labs research on before. And I guess the question is at what point is the next step having a computer just execute trade to I mean, obviously human judges also plays a role, but you can see how this can sort of facility I think the the reality.

and we've seen this also. So just with all goes that are out there trading for the market on headlines, but I would say at some point you worry about having too much information. What is the market being on? Sometimes it's not the smartest ideas. Those ideas sound smart .

though right up next final trade.

Finally, try time, tim, at times some .

numbers out today and they weren't that great, but they are talking about a world we're reading at home more. The guidance was Better than expected. The cost savings and the margins are Better. Sail on chicken .

ultimate A L T A about this one. I'm in this one, be careful, use limits, its a very light market .

final spy .

concerns around retail and homebound ter Jason stocks r rage continues perform guy D A breaking .

out in the game well in the game.

Thanks so much and fast. See tomorrow mad money dream prema starts right now.

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