cover of episode The "Best" Bicentennial Episode

The "Best" Bicentennial Episode

2025/1/24
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Moody's Talks - Inside Economics
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
C
Cris deRitis
M
Marisa DiNatale
M
Mark Zandi
W
Wayne Best
Topics
@Mark Zandi : 我认为美国经济的乐观前景主要取决于消费者行为,消费者是经济增长的主要驱动力。 @Wayne Best : 美国消费者呈现两类人群和两个阶段的特征。中等收入家庭在消费支出上更加谨慎,而高收入家庭则相对较少受到影响。低收入家庭仍在经济困境中挣扎。2025年消费者支出增长将放缓,增速将低于2024年。Visa支出动量指数(SMI)衡量消费者支出的动量,基于消费者参与购物的人数而非消费金额。12月美国Visa支出动量指数低于100,表明参与消费的人数减少,但整体消费支出依然保持增长,因为参与消费的人群消费金额增加。12月美国南部地区Visa支出动量指数下降,可能与龙卷风灾害有关。东南亚地区Visa支出动量指数较高,这与制造业转移有关。 @Cris deRitis : 美国经济呈现K型复苏,不同收入群体间的经济状况差异显著。低收入家庭的经济压力可能正在逐渐缓解,如果通货膨胀继续下降,工资保持稳定,低收入家庭的经济状况将逐渐改善。 @Marisa DiNatale : 低收入家庭更容易受到通货膨胀的影响,且疫情期间积累的储蓄已消耗殆尽。尽管低收入家庭的净资产有所增加,但他们拥有房屋和401k计划的比例较低,因此经济压力依然很大。利率下降并未显著缓解低收入家庭的经济压力。高收入人群的消费支出主要受财富效应驱动,但资产价格下跌可能导致经济快速下滑。复仇式消费的某些方面已经结束,但高收入人群的消费支出依然强劲。中等收入人群目前消费谨慎,更倾向于使用借记卡而非信用卡。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast hosts celebrate the 200th episode and welcome back Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, as a guest. They reminisce about past episodes and discuss their long tenures at their respective companies.
  • 200th episode of Inside Economics podcast.
  • Wayne Best's 35th anniversary at Visa.
  • Hosts' long tenures at Moody's Analytics.

Shownotes Transcript

Inside Economics welcomes Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa, back on the podcast to celebrate the 200th episode and talk about the state of the American consumer. Wayne discusses Visa’s Spending Momentum Index for the U.S. and other parts of the globe and what it means for low, high, and middle-income households. The conversation ends with a discussion of the Trump administration’s policy proposals and the implications for inflation and growth.

Guest: Wayne Best, Chief Economist at Visa

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn