cover of episode Investing with UBS CIO Mark Haefele

Investing with UBS CIO Mark Haefele

2025/3/21
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@Mark Haefele : 我在金融危机前就从对冲基金退休了，之后在朋友的邀请下加入了瑞银，致力于建立一个更透明、更注重流程的投资体系。我们关注宏观经济形势，并根据不同的经济情景（牛市、熊市、基准情景）调整投资策略。当前，我们提高了熊市情景（衰退或滞胀）的风险概率，并下调了标普500指数的年度目标价。我们认为，政府的贸易政策和财政政策存在不确定性，可能对经济增长和市场造成影响。我们关注政府的政策和支出方向，并据此调整投资策略，例如关注国防、医疗保健、能源和人工智能等领域。我们认为，去全球化和债务问题也可能带来投资机会。在投资方面，我们建议投资者关注政府的资金流向，并根据五个主要趋势（债务、去全球化、脱碳、数字化和人口结构变化）调整投资组合。我们强调，投资者应根据自身情况和风险承受能力制定投资策略，并考虑流动性、长期性和传承性三个方面。 @Mark Zandi : 当前经济形势复杂，存在多种不确定性因素，例如贸易战、政府政策和全球经济形势等。这些因素可能对经济增长和市场造成影响。我们需要关注这些因素，并根据实际情况调整投资策略。 @Cris deRitis : (无核心论点) @Marisa DiNatale : (无核心论点)

Deep Dive

Chapters
Mark Haefele, UBS's CIO, shares his unique career journey, highlighting his diverse experiences before joining UBS and his role in establishing a transparent investment process within the wealth management division.
  • Mark Haefele's career path included stints in the U.S. Army Airborne, mountain guiding, teaching history at Harvard, and working at a hedge fund.
  • He joined UBS in 2011 and played a key role in establishing a transparent investment process.
  • His approach focuses on process, repeatable results, and professionalization.

Shownotes Transcript

Investing in these especially turbulent times is intrepid. No better person to navigate the ups and downs in global stock, bond, crypto and other asset markets than UBS’s CIO, Mark Haefele. Mark discusses his new book, in which he considers the broad global trends – the 5 Ds – investors should embrace. And he offers a few investment nuggets along the way.

For Mark Haefele's book, The New Rules of Investing, click here

Guest: Mark Haefele – Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management

Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody’s Analytics

Follow Mark Zandi on 'X', BlueSky or LinkedIn @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn

Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. 

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