Many surveys and headlines have claimed there's a large percentage of Americans who support political violence. Some estimates have been around 25% – and some have gone as high as 40%! This is very scary; it ramps up fears of a violent and chaotic American future, and even fears of a civil war. But political polarization researchers like my guest Sean Westwood have shown that many people are massively overstating the problem. And that overstatement is leading to hysterical and unhelpful framings and debates. Worst of all, these exaggerated fears can even contribute to a self-reinforcing cycle… a self-fulfilling prophecy. Topics discussed include: what the faulty surveys and studies are missing; how bad survey design (ambiguous questions, or leading questions) can lead to faulty estimates; what more accurate survey results tell us; how exaggerated fears can contribute to a self-fulfilling prophecy; and why people embrace and promote overly pessimistic narratives.
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