cover of episode TDI Podcast: Fallacy of Composition (#893)

TDI Podcast: Fallacy of Composition (#893)

2024/11/3
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Andrew Horowitz
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David Salem
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Andrew Horowitz：美国总统大选结果会对经济和市场产生影响，但影响程度难以预测。存在四种可能性：特朗普当选且国会由共和党控制；特朗普当选且国会由民主党控制；哈里斯当选且国会由民主党控制；哈里斯当选且国会由共和党控制。前两种情况可能导致政府僵局。关税最终由消费者承担，具有通货膨胀效应。尽管就业人数增长缓慢，但经济表现良好，失业率仍然较低。就业数据增长缓慢的原因包括罢工、天气问题和选举前的企业犹豫。大选结果将决定未来几年经济和市场的走向。市场对科技公司业绩的轻微下滑反应过度。 David Salem：传统的资本资产定价模型和现代投资组合理论在实践中并不总是有效；低贝塔股票的长期复合回报率往往高于高贝塔股票。私募股权投资存在“成分谬误”的风险，难以准确评估私募股权投资组合的价值。机构投资者在估值不确定时，应谨慎制定支出计划；机构投资者应专注于可交易的资产，以实现财富增值目标。投资者应避免同时追求多个相互冲突的目标；投资者应避免在不符合自身需求的投资上浪费时间；投资者应警惕营销策略掩盖的风险。政府干预对市场造成了重大影响，使得投资变得更加困难；中央银行的干预可能会导致资本市场定价错误；政府法规对401(k)计划的投资产生了重大影响。他对中国投资持悲观态度，因为政府对经济的控制使得投资风险过高；他对日本投资持乐观态度，因为日本市场的低估值和公司治理的改善提供了投资机会。美联储的通货膨胀政策缺乏清晰的理论基础，对通货膨胀的预测忽略了重要的基数效应；通货膨胀率在可预见的未来不会下降到美联储的目标水平。美联储的法定目标相互冲突且缺乏明确的时间框架。

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The discussion focuses on the potential outcomes of the US presidential election and their implications for the economy and markets, including the role of tariffs and inflation.
  • Four possible election outcomes and their economic implications.
  • Tariffs are inflationary and are ultimately paid by consumers.
  • Employment numbers and GDP growth are strong, but there are underlying issues like strikes and pre-election jitters.

Shownotes Transcript

Andrew and David discussed the financial industry, focusing on timeless topics and the role of Jeremy Grantham.

In this episode, we also explored the challenges of valuing private equity investments, the importance of having a clear investment strategy, and the impact of government intervention in capital markets. A spirited discussion followed about our contrasting views on China and Japan, and discussed the current state of the economy, particularly focusing on inflation and the actions of the Federal Reserve.

Guest: David Salem – HedgeEye

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David Salem, Managing Director – Capital Allocation @ Hedgeye)

Prior to joining Hedgeye) in early 2023, David served as founding President and Chief Investment Officer of The Investment Fund for Foundations (TIFF) and as a partner at GMO, working closely with Jeremy Grantham on investment solutions for large institutional funds.

David received a JD cum laude from Harvard Law School and an MBA with high distinction from Harvard Business School, where he was elected a Baker Scholar. A member of the District of Columbia Bar, David has held adjunct faculty positions at Middlebury College, from which he earned his undergraduate degree summa cum laude, and the University of Virginia, and served in the White House Counsel’s office while enrolled at Harvard.

David’s has given talks at many colleges and universities, including Dartmouth, Duke, Harvard, MIT, Middlebury, Northwestern, and Oxford, and at conferences organized by the Association of Governing Boards, the CFA Institute, the Council on Foundations, the Foundation Financial Officers Group and NACUBO among other organizations.

 

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/))

CHARTS DISCUSSED IN THIS EPISODE)

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Stocks mentioned in this episode: (META), (AAPL), (NVDA), (MSFT)