cover of episode What will the US presidential election mean for the economy?

What will the US presidential election mean for the economy?

2024/10/29
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Goldman Sachs Exchanges
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Jared Bernstein
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Kevin Hassett
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Jared Bernstein: 当前美国经济处于稳健扩张阶段，通货膨胀得到控制，失业率低，实际工资增长。但仍面临住房、托儿等市场问题以及极端天气和地缘政治风险。他支持针对性关税以应对不公平贸易，主张将公司税率提高至28%以实现财政可持续性，并建议对高收入人群征收未实现资本收益税以提高税收公平性。他还认为扩大儿童税收抵免和所得税抵免对经济有益。 Kevin Hassett: 美国经济形势复杂，存在衰退风险，但也有可能保持增长动能。他主张对中国采取强硬的贸易政策，甚至考虑将中国踢出WTO，并支持对等关税法案。他反对将公司税率提高至28%，认为这会损害经济，并反对对未实现资本收益征税，认为这是一种效率低下的财富税。虽然他也认为扩大儿童税收抵免是合理的，但他更强调控制财政赤字的重要性，认为政府债务和赤字问题严重。 Jared Bernstein: The current US economy is in a solid expansion phase, with inflation under control, low unemployment, and real wage growth. However, it still faces challenges in housing, childcare, and other markets, as well as extreme weather and geopolitical risks. He supports targeted tariffs to address unfair trade, advocates raising the corporate tax rate to 28% to achieve fiscal sustainability, and suggests taxing unrealized capital gains for high-income earners to improve tax fairness. He also believes that expanding the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit is beneficial to the economy. Kevin Hassett: The US economic situation is complex, with recessionary risks, but also the possibility of maintaining growth momentum. He advocates a tough trade policy towards China, even considering kicking China out of the WTO, and supports a reciprocal tariff act. He opposes raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, believing it would harm the economy, and opposes taxing unrealized capital gains, considering it an inefficient wealth tax. While he also believes that expanding the Child Tax Credit is reasonable, he places more emphasis on the importance of controlling the fiscal deficit, believing that government debt and deficit problems are serious.

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Chapters
Both Jared Bernstein and Kevin Hassett discuss the current economic landscape and the potential challenges the next administration will face.
  • Inflation has come down from its peak, but unemployment remains low.
  • There are ongoing risks from extreme weather events, trade, and geopolitical challenges.
  • The labor market showed signs of entering a recession but later improved sharply.

Shownotes Transcript

How could the proposed policy agendas between the two US presidential candidates shape markets and economies? Top economists from the Democratic and Republican parties discuss a range of economic policies, painting starkly different policy approaches in some key areas but similarities in others. In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Kevin Hassett, former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Trump, and Jared Bernstein, the current Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, speak with host Allison Nathan. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report, Post-election economic policies.