139. UPDATE: Maksym Yali on life in Kyiv and possible gains for the counteroffensive before winter
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Welcome to the War on Ukraine update from Kyiv podcast. I'm Jessica Gnauer, a senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University in Australia, and I'm checking in with Maxim Yali, head of the Centre for New World Order and professor of international relations at the National Aviation University in Kyiv. Thanks for checking in with me today, Maxim. You're welcome, Jessica. So we haven't spoken for a while. Could you first...

update listeners on what is the mood like in Kyiv at the moment and how are things going over there? Actually, the mood in Kyiv

hasn't changed much. Most of the citizens of the capital adopted to the war a long time ago. So, summer was stable, I would say, because just before the beginning of counteroffensive in May, beginning of June, there were huge attacks, drones and missiles every day.

So that was difficult. Since then, just several occasions, but now it is autumn and just two days ago there was also massive missile attack, more than 50 missiles were launched by Russians. And it's just, you know, the beginning of the season of targeting Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

And it shows that we should prepare for difficult winter, just as it was last year with lockdowns, problems with electricity, etc. And even officials today, even the prime minister wrote to it. So even top-level officials say that we should prepare for tough winter.

But, you know, life is going on, like, you know, just go to restaurants, cafes, etc., etc. A curfew is not so strict and is not so long. It is incomparable, I would say, with the situation in Kyiv last spring, when checkpoints, no people, absolutely empty Kyiv.

Now it's just if I go out, for example, you know, not far, there is a Dnieper River. Okay, people walking in the evening, even during air and silence, just keep swimming, some bathing, children playing. So we got used to it. We are aware that it's a long time war.

who first will be exhausted. So we already understand and aware not only Kievans but all Ukrainians that this war will not be over by the end of the year as everybody was hoping including our western allies at the beginning this winter yes when we were preparing for this counter-offensive.

I am interested in your perspective on what we're going to see for the rest of this year. We're heading now towards the winter in Kyiv. We've seen the counteroffensive progressing, but progressing slowly. So what do you think we're likely to see before the winter really sets in and then also going into next year? Well, actually, I do not agree.

It's usually, say, slow counteroffensive, taking into account that, for example, just one fact, statistical, yes, five, six mind per square meter, not kilometer.

So, of course, Zelenskyy and our commanders denied to come through these mine lines quickly because it would lead to huge losses among Ukrainian soldiers. So now...

And as General Zaluzhny mentioned, his goal also, of course, to de-occupy territories, but to save resources, to save lives. Because even, for example, I would say a very optimistic scenario, but we break through all three defense lines, come to the SLC, break this corridor to Crimea, but...

We lose everything. We lose thousands of soldiers. We lose all the verticals, fighter jets. We still have, I mean, Ukrainian everything. What happens then? So we occupy even Crimea. So what happens then? Will the war be over? Of course not. In that case, a Ukrainian army would

would be very weak and then Russians even if they make and they can make another mobilization and they still have huge resources yes in tanks everything fighter jets superiority in the sky that's one of the key reasons

And they would fight back and occupy much more territories. So these are the risks we are taking into account considerably, and I suppose it's totally right. Therefore, we are doing...

Very good job, I mean, our soldiers. I know, I communicate with them. It is incomparable, I mean, conditions for offensive operations. Last year we had successes in Kharkiv region, then Kherson region, they occupied a lot of territories, but because there were no defense lines and it was easy to break through.

and they just ran away to save just the region. Yeah, they saved resources. So they left territories, but the most important that they saved machinery, just tanks, everything, armored vehicles and people. And then as you see now,

again trying to occupy exactly that territory in Kharkiv direction, if we talk to this. So the strategy is obvious and correct under such conditions of such kind of war.

So what we can see, I would say usually like it's optimistic scenario, yes, pessimistic and real one. I suppose real one just weak and President Zelenskyy just mentioned visiting Washington that there is a plan to occupy three towns. So the first one is Bakhmut,

we're trying to encircle it and to cut down the main roads. We are very close to it, especially on the south. So we can occupy other two towns he didn't mention. Of course, very important. So there are actually very few towns, not even cities left in the south. So Takhmak

Militopol and Berdyansk. So, for example, just Militopol and Berdyansk are about the same, like it was before the beginning of the full-scale war. 100,000 citizens in Militopol and Berdyansk, even a bit less. Takhmak is about 30,000. But, of course, it's difficult to decupy them. So Takhmak, I guess, would be an optimistic scenario because they have the air.

still defense lines and they have this corridor to Crimea so they can bring additional troops from the territory of Russia through Maruupol. Just 90 kilometers away from Berdyansk and 100 kilometers away from Melikopol.

So I guess that's optimistic scenario to break through all defense lines, even the US general system make like chances 50-50. So far, I guess even a bit less.

for all three defense lines to break through because of the factors I mentioned. And we are already actually preparing for the next year campaign, spring campaign, just soldiers who are on the front line, they say just their commanders say them, okay, just we need first of all to hold the territories we managed to occupy. As you know, we broke the first defense lines

we are having some successes, but to have this area from which when we get

New resources, mobilize, train more soldiers in the West, finally get F-16. Because, you know, if you look to Western military doctrines, it is forbidden to start offensive operations if you do not have superiority or at least equality in this car. We don't have even equality because we still have only...

fighter jets made in Soviet Union, the radar systems, missile systems, just lag behind the Russian modern fighter jets Su-35, Su-34, like Bombarda, etc., etc.

So in this world, drones play a very important role, understandable, but artillery is the key one. And since May, we just eliminated about 300 artillery systems per month. Since June, we increased the quantity twice.

almost 700 and not less than 600. The war will be over and the victory we get when Russia does not have enough resources to substitute the losses in soldiers, but most important in artillery systems, fighter jets, air defense systems also very important and we also showed very good

results this summer. So if you look to these statistics, not only the occupied territories, it differs a lot. Now, as I told you, that's what we can do to hold what we have occupied. I'm sure there is a plan to occupy Bakhmut. Also, Takmak would be very nice. Mm-hmm.

Thanks, Maxim. Appreciate you being with me on the podcast today and sharing your thoughts. You're welcome. Jessica, we should meet more often. Thanks for listening. And thanks to Gonca Varol for our theme music.