138. ANALYSIS: Miriam Hess on Ramzan Kadyrov’s place in Russian politics; Chechen fighters on both sides in the war in Ukraine; and the future of the Republic of Chechnya
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Welcome to the War in Ukraine update from Kyiv podcast. I'm Jessica Gnauer, a senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University in Australia. And I'm talking today with Miriam Hess. Miriam is an associate fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations. Miriam focuses in her work on Chechnya, preventing and countering Islamic extremism and terrorism, as well as Russia and counterterrorism.

Thanks for joining me on the podcast today, Miriam. Thank you. So we're going to focus in on today's episode on Chechnya and the relationship between Chechens and Chechnya and the Russian state, as this seems to be an area to watch if we want to understand the trajectory of relations.

Russia as Russia's war in Ukraine grinds on. So first of all, could you provide a bit of background to the relationship between the Chechen Republic and the Russian state?

Yeah, so if you want to have a brief background, I think the relationship between the Russian state and the Czech Republic would be best described as being complicated. So you have this relationship that is really characterized by a lot of conflict, a lot of wars, a lot of violent fight escalations.

So on the Chechen side, you have the Chechen people that throughout history wanted to become independent, become an independent region from Russia. But what is important to understand is that it's not about like...

the Chechen Republic as being a fixed territory. So it's more about the region and the Chechen people. And the Chechen people are really proud of their identity, of their heritage, of their history, of their people. And what they want is to have a state, an independent region where they know that this identity is respected, that

the state is based on this identity in terms of rules, laws, organization, and so on and so forth. Also, of course, there were a lot of Chechen internal struggles on how to pursue those goals. But if you want to have just a brief background, that would be it. And on the Russian side, you have the Russian state that is really more like trying to deprive the Chechen people of this identity

identity because that is something like I said before where this desire to become independent is based upon so for the Russian state it is more about like getting Chechnya to become more integrated into Russia and not to become independent and

And so this is like the core of the conflict potential that we always see throughout history. Although, of course, like I said before, there's more to it. So there are like more facets and more internal struggles and more like separatist movements. But like if you want to have just a brief background, it is a really complicated relationship that is characterized by conflict. And this conflict is really about becoming independent for the Chechens and not becoming independent for the Russian side.

And an interesting figure in this story is the head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, who seems to be quite a colourful character and of course has decided to cooperate with President Putin, with Putin's regime, with the Russian state. But how would you characterise that relationship?

between Ramzan Kadyrov and either President Putin himself or the current ruling regime? That would also be a complicated relationship, but for different reasons. This relationship is really so complicated because Putin and Kadyrov, and it is only about Putin, not the office of being the Russian president, but about President Putin himself.

Kadyrov and Putin are really codependent on each other, and that makes it really complicated. When starting with the Kadyrov side, you have Ramzan Kadyrov, who is the son of former Chechen President Ahmad Kadyrov. And Ahmad Kadyrov, in fact, was before becoming a Russian state supporter or like fighting for the Russian goals and the Chechen conflicts, he was one of the leading fighters in

against the Russian state. He was the former Mufti and in this position he called upon Chechen Muslims to really fight against the Russian state and perceive this fight as some kind of jihad.

But then in the 2000s, like around, yeah, I think 1990, so the beginning of the second Chechen war, Ahmad Kadyrov switched sides. He became a Putin supporter. He aligned with the pro-Russian forces.

and then became, like, after some time, he was elected the Chechen president. So what you have here is that the power of the Kadyrov clan is really based upon this loyalty to Moscow, which makes Kadyrov, now Ramzan Kadyrov, really dependent on Putin's appreciation or liking of him. And then you have, on the other side, the Russian president, Putin,

who need some kind of arm within Chechnya or in the North Caucasian region, because that was a region that kept Russian domestic politics busy for decades because of all these separatist movements, these fights, these wars, and so on and so forth. And now with the Kadyrov clan, Putin is presented with some kind of support arm that keeps Chechnya

Of course, not by respecting human rights, by, I don't know, being some kind of like what we would call democratic leader, but rather by suppressing any opposition, by ruling like a dictator and so on and so forth. But Kadyrov needs Putin to guarantee his power.

And then again, Putin needs Kadyrov, especially now during the Ukraine war, where like all the resources are needed outside of Russia to like really be able to rely on someone who is keeping this region that kept Russian domestic politics so busy, who's now keeping it just quiet so that

there's no distraction within Russia to like, I don't know, focus on Chechnya now. And something that seems to give Ramzan Kadyrov a certain leverage is

is this religious dimension. So obviously he's Muslim, but also seems to position himself as a leader, not only of Chechen Muslims, but also of the entire Muslim population within Russia, which is quite sizable. So how significant do you think that is that Ramzan Kadyrov is really positioning himself in some ways as a leader of Russian Muslims? I think...

But Kadyrov really recognized or realized that him being a Muslim politician and being in charge of something is a unique selling point that no other Russian leader has. But in Russia, we also have, like you correctly said, we have like a really huge Muslim population. So what...

is doing is that he is positioning himself as the spokesperson of not only Chechen people but also for the Russian Muslim population. If they want that, that's like...

a different story, but like that's what he's strategically doing. And he's doing this because he is really having political ambitions. He wants to enhance his own political profile. He wants to become a crucial figure within Russian foreign politics.

He wants, like his father already did, he wants to become a, he wants to make Chechnya the bridge between the Russian state or Moscow and Middle Eastern regimes. So to really be like a crucial factor for Russia and building international alliances with other international players. And he's doing this by like really selling off his, him being a religious person, him being a Muslim politician, etc.

and by likewise reminding the Russian state and the outside world, like the international world, that Russia has this huge Muslim population and

with this has this huge component of Islam that they can also use to like build these kind of soft alliances by not just using hard instruments but also like soft instruments like for example religion so it's really significant and it is something that we should watch it's a different story if the Russian state apparatus is using this but

But I think that is really something that we should watch and that we should try to analyze and try to keep track of what he's doing with the Middle Eastern regimes to build alliances and try to position Russia after being isolated because of the war, to try to position Russia again in the center of the international system. Interesting. Sort of like the sub-state actor, but

in some way, starting to fulfill functions that belong to states' foreign policy apparatus, which is really interesting. And I imagine that Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the ongoing war has presented in some ways challenges and in some ways opportunities for Ukraine

a sub-state actor like Ramzan Kadyrov. We've heard a lot since Russia's full-scale invasion about the private military company Wagner Group and their involvement fighting in Ukraine. What we've heard a lot less about are

the Chechen fighters who are on the ground in Ukraine and on both sides. So some Chechens fighting with Russia, I assume maybe those that are associated with Ramzan Kadyrov himself, and some Chechen fighters have actually chosen to join the Ukrainian side. So what is going on there? What is the involvement of Chechen fighters in the war in Ukraine?

Yeah, so first of all, it really depends upon where you are located, of how your perception of how much you heard about Wagner and the Chechens is. I think in Europe we heard a lot about Chechen involvement in the wars. I, for example, received a lot of interview requests asking me about what is Kadyrov doing, what is he thinking, and so on and so forth, which was for me a new reality because I'm looking into him for a longer period now and now everybody understands

It's like all of a sudden interested in what he's doing and what is Chechnya and can you tell me more about this? So I think it's like really more about like perception and where you're located. But nevertheless, you're correct because there are Chechens fighting on both sides in Ukraine.

When starting with the Russian side, you have really these two types of fighters. So first of all, you have Chechens that belong to the so-called Kadyrovtsi, who are like active supporters of Kadyrov, the president. And they are in Ukraine or they support the Russian war in whatever ways because they really believe in the cause and they really are supporting the agenda of Kadyrov.

and that means they are supporting the agenda of the Russian state or Putin. But then you have these other groups of fighters that are more like normal people and they are not fighting in Ukraine because they want to, but rather because they are forced to. So they are treated as cannon fodder in the sense. So like really not well equipped. They are sent there to like just present some, to just give presents.

And they are forced by the so-called clan liability, which is actually applied in Chechnya, meaning that, for example, if you have a son that would be, I don't know, able to fight in Ukraine and that for whatever reason or because he or she doesn't want to fight is fleeing the scene. You have the family that is being terrorized and like arrested and then even tortured.

to make this person to come back and go to Ukraine and fight. So there's really this force going on to make people to go to Ukraine and fight. And that's the main difference between the fighters, between the Chechen fighters on the pro-Russian side.

So and then on the pro-Ukrainian side, you have Chechens fighting there since already at least 2014. So during the first Ukraine war, if you want to call it like that, there you have different battalions. And I think the most

famous ones are the Dzhokhar Dudayev and the Sheikhmand-Zub Battalion. They're fighting in Ukraine because this invasion of Ukraine by Russia is reminding them of their own history, of their own struggle. Like if you ask fighters,

and there are some reports out there interviewing fighters, it is not about them trying to fight their own war there and just trying to misuse the Ukrainian battlefield to pursue their own goals, but it's rather about supporting another...

another nation, another country, another state in the fight against Russia. And of course, it's a symbol for them because what is happening in Ukraine is actually a reminder of what was happening to them, especially during the Second Chechen War. So you have Chechens fighting there for the reason that they want to support Ukraine in staying independent.

and supporting them in their fight against Russia. And of course, they have hopes that the international world, like international actors would recognize what Russia did to them. And so that means that they perceive the war as some kind of chance to like really raise attention to their own struggle. But the first priority was for them is to support Ukraine and their fight against Russia. And then comes the other reason I just mentioned.

And there certainly do seem to be some echoes in the way in which Russia is fighting the war in Ukraine of the Second Chechen War in particular. So you mentioned how Ramzan Kadyrov's relationship with President Putin has a kind of a personal dimension. And another character, Yevgeny Progozhin, who apparently now has been killed in a plane crash, also had this kind of

personal relationship with Putin. And yet that didn't stop him being quite critical about Russia's military failures in the war in Ukraine. And then eventually, whether he intended it or not, seeming to really go out against Putin himself and Putin's regime. So do you think that we might see something similar in terms of

Ramzan Kadyrov becoming a figure who starts to channel this sort of discontent with Russia's military failures and possibly even start to become critical of President Putin himself or, you know, at least the way in which Russia is fighting the war in Ukraine? I think there will be a definite no, at least the part of Kadyrov becoming a

critical some sort of President Putin and as you mentioned correctly Ramzan Kadyrov is a loud like he's voicing loud criticism of the Russian military leadership he's doing that but

But what he's doing is he's applying this narrative of the Russian military leadership not being able to fulfill the demands and orders of President Putin. So they are just not good enough, just not able to really be in the state apparatus and pursue these goals that Putin has for Ukraine. But with this, I think he's trying to

further demonstrate his loyalty to Putin, like his appreciation of his power, of his ability. And I think this coup attempt, if you want to call it like that, that Grigoryan did, is something that we would never witness from Kadyrov as long as Putin is in power. Because, of course, there was this

this chance of Kadyrov aligning with Grigoshin because for example Kadyrov voiced his admiration for the support of Grigoshin and the way he's supporting the Russian war against Ukraine so I think there was this short window of Kadyrov aligning himself with Grigoshin but

I think it's just he wouldn't do that because he, Kadyrov is pursuing these other strategies or these other goals of becoming a crucial political actor. And he needs someone in power for that. So he does not need some, I don't know, separatist struggles or whatever, but he needs the support of someone who is, who has more power than he does.

to be able to give him or to provide him with the political position to pursue his own goals. And I think so far he has come a long way and he would not risk it to align with actors like Brighoasin or even start his own, I don't know,

coups like Wagner did. So he would not risk it because he really wants to have this political profile and not be some kind of warlord or war leader or whatever, because he had the chance of becoming that, right? Because like I said before, his clan is only in power because of the loyalty to Putin, but

this decision of turning against the Chechen people, and in some sense he did that, is standing at the beginning of this family becoming a political power, power within the Russian state apparatus that really stands on the beginning. So Kadyrov would risk this legacy to just

I don't know, get what, you know, I cannot answer this question. What would he get from that? More power? No, because he's already on the right way because he's getting all these promotion because he's loyal to President Putin and so on and so forth. So for me, that would be like a definite no, at least from a strategic point of view. And finally, I want to ask you a bit of a hypothetical question. Do you think that if as a result of

Russia's war in Ukraine, Putin's power was actually to become more significantly destabilized. For example, if Putin's entire regime were to crumble in some way or Putin himself were to exit from power, do you think that we would then see Ramzan Kadyrov vying for Chechen independence? Or do you think that that is...

something that has really been now left far in the past and is not something that he would be interested in reviving, even if there is maybe a significant Chechen population that might support that? Yeah, I think that's a really, really, really interesting question. And I think it's even more interesting to maybe try to play some mind games, since it is a hypothetical question.

So what would speak for a yes? Yes, Kadyrov would strive for Chechen independence from Russia if Putin is not a power anymore. I think since Kadyrov is only loyal to Putin, the absence of Putin would present reason enough for Kadyrov or to at least think about like maybe turn against the Russian state and try to continue this Chechen battle for independence. So yes,

maybe to like secure his power and still stay a relevant at least relevant figure with within the Chechen political apparatus he could if Putin is like removed from power or like for whatever reason is not in power anymore could try to align again with Chechen separatist forces to like really try and

revive this Shetron battle or this Shetron desire for independence so I think there is some reason to believe that yes he would do that but on the other side there's also enough reason to think that he wouldn't so what what would speak for a no is that his whole power like I like I said the

before his whole power and his whole power apparatus is really, really based on his support from President Putin himself. But President Putin, even if he's only personally supporting Vladimir Putin as a person,

he still is the president of Russia, right? So what could Kadyrov do is to just go to Moscow and try to like make peace with the people he before like made an enemy of because he criticized the Russian state apparatus so much or the Russian military leadership. But what he could do is like to just go to Moscow and try to become friends now with the person who is in office.

to at least save some of his political legacy, of his political role and maybe even strategy that we talked already about. So that would be something that would speak for a no, because if he would choose yes, that would mean a whole new set of rules or instruments that he would need to apply to really change

remain in power and I think although Kadyrov tries to like come across as some kind of battle hardened fighter who's like I don't know fearless and ruthless and whatever but I think what he really likes is to have power and

and to live in some kind of like luxury peace, right? And I think if you would try to make friends with whoever is in office when Putin is removed from being the president of the Russian state is the more likely way to

to go so that he can like continue his current lifestyle and that also includes his political strategy so there are like enough reasons to think about yes or no and I think that's really interesting and we should think about that because it would become like important at least for Europe but I think for the whole international system because

whatever is happening in Chechnya is somehow always influencing the dynamic within the international system on various levels. So I think it is interesting to think about what would happen if and try to think about the reasons of a yes and a no. Yeah, and try to like get some insights and then to be ahead of what could happen if that happens, right? So yeah, that's a really interesting question.

Well, thanks, Miriam. I really appreciate you being on the podcast today. I found this a really insightful discussion and I feel like I've personally learned a lot more about an area that I didn't previously know that much about. So thanks for joining me today. Thanks for having me and inviting me. Thanks for listening and thanks to Gonca Verol for our theme music.