131. UPDATE: Maksym Yali on expected Ukrainian counteroffensive - when, where and what’s at stake
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Welcome to the War in Ukraine update from Kyiv podcast.

I'm Jessica Kinawa, a senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University in Australia. And I'm talking today with Maxim Yali, head of the Centre for New World Order and professor of international relations at the National Aviation University in Kyiv. Thanks for talking to me today, Maxim. Always welcome, Jessica. Nice to see you again. Yeah, it's been a while since we checked in with each other. How is life in Kyiv these days?

Well, you know, that depends how to look at it. Definitely the number of attacks, air attacks increased, especially during last week, during last six days, for example, there were three of them and just like last night again. So our air defense system

Thanks God, working pretty well, but you can see rockets hitting drones at night, you know, nice view, so to say. So we got used to it, that's why I can joke about it, for example, yeah, about it already.

For people who listen to us, definitely it may sound shocking, but human being is such a creature which gets used to everything. But definitely this increase of attacks, not only on Kiev, but all around Ukraine, is connected with possible counteroffensive and the situation on the front line. And after the

the season of rains, I would say. So just now at the beginning of May, we are speaking the rains are almost over. Well, on the south, there are still, but near Bakhmut, in Donetsk region, just the weather conditions, which is definitely one of the key reasons

reasons of delay of counteroffensive have come to an end or coming if we talk about south the weather condition they are still the same so it's still raining but definitely it's a matter of a week or two if we look to weather forecasts in two weeks the ground will be not so wet will be dry

and ready for counter-offense. If we talk about weather conditions and the situation in Kiev and all around Ukraine, taken all together. And in that regard, I mean, there's been a lot of anticipation about an

upcoming counteroffensive from Ukraine. I know that a few months ago you predicted that this might occur in April or May, which is around the time that we're at now. So what's your thinking at the moment? Do you think that we're likely to see a counteroffensive soon from Ukraine? And where might that occur? Yeah, so as I have already mentioned, weather conditions, which do matter, I was prognosing

The end of April, beginning of May, just weather conditions I have mentioned already. Second condition, military supply of promised military aid of our Western allies, like Secretary General of NATO Mr. Stoltenberg mentioned last week.

98% have been already delivered. But there is another issue. We should take into account that too much is put on the stake. For Ukraine especially, taking into account, well, this media asked

all around the world. Everybody's talking about counteroffensive since the beginning of the year, right? When we talked with you since January, so that time Russians started their offensive operation. But Bakhmut, well, they increased, to be correct, because for nine months they already have been trying to capture it. So far,

haven't achieved this goal completely luckily. So let's dwell upon some aspects. So military. The problem is that Russians have used and still have been using time. They're also preparing for our counteroffensive and we need to take into account. For example, last autumn when we had our

counter-offensive operations, very successful ones in the Kharkiv region. So it was unexpected. It played a very important role because every day we occupied 25-30 kilometers. A day was very rapid.

But for half a year, they have been preparing defense lines, minefields. And even those tanks we received, just also need to mention, not all of them, far not all of them, especially if we talk about Leopard tanks, right? Most of those we received, 250 to be correct, yeah, most of them...

These are modernized Soviet tanks from Poland, from other East European states. But Leopard, unfortunately, we have delays. Let's put it this way. But more important, tanks will not play the paramount important role. Yes, they are.

important, but if there are kilometers, tens of kilometers of mine fields, yeah, it's a challenge. We need another equipment to get through it. Otherwise, it will be an easy target, particularly for Russian aviation, which is now aiming at our air defense system. It's number one, their priority. They changed their tactics.

And now they hit not on energy sector, critical infrastructure, but first of all, they're trying to target air defense systems. Unfortunately,

Well, they have some successes. And definitely, if our air defense systems, we don't have them enough and we cannot protect our ground here, our counteroffensive will not be successful. Because for aviation, as I have mentioned, it's a very easy target. So it's number one. Why I would say it's better to...

to wait because as I have mentioned political issues and pressure yeah so you can read in American media all around the world well if we fail our counteroffensive which is still possible taking into account these aspects I mentioned that Russia is preparing yeah there will be difficulties to continue

military supply, right? And because in many states, elections are still to come. For example, Slovakia, very small, tiny country, even if to compare with Ukraine, but very important for logistics and for repair. For example, they gave us all of their fighter jets, MiG-29s.

Yeah, and they were the first ones. And that's another aspect. Yeah, so fighter jets, very important. F-16, we need both to control and to defend our critical infrastructure, our space. They can shut down drones and also they can target aviation on long range.

So, the next aspect, as I have mentioned, is this political pressure, and political pressure also inside Ukraine, because also in media and population is looking forward for this counteroffensive, because, well, for three, four months, well, actually more than half a year,

Since in November, Russians left Kherson. It was our last success. And then there was just, well, an operative pause, and we're defending. If we talk about successes, the occupation of territories last year, Ukraine had, the most important is logistics.

Yeah, we destroyed logistics, just two bridges across Dnipro River, and it was enough to ruin their logistics. And they had to flee to run away from Kherson, not to have much heavier casualties. So now it's not so easy to ruin it.

And to do it, we need attackers, right? Long range missiles, more than 150 kilometers. So far, so far, we haven't got. I hope that all we look and read in the newspapers, watch on TV,

is not completely true. Yeah, or partial true, because, you know, to give all the information to your enemy, well, it looks weird and not logical. So I hope we have received some support

surprises, let's put it this way. I have some grounds, for example, in my native Marupol. Last month there were explosions because it's more than 100 kilometers away, so chimers cannot get it so far. But some targets were reached

And occupants were shocked. There were videos like they couldn't get what it was. So I hope it was a testing. So another aspect is political one. Very important we need to take it into account. Our counteroffensive, it should be

rapid and expected very quick. But as I have mentioned, Russians, after mobilization, preparation for half a year, now definitely they are prepared much better than last year. They are much more troops, much more technique, tanks, vehicles, whatever, air defense systems as well, minefields, which I've mentioned already. So,

We need to exhaust it. And for that, we need shells, rockets, and we should ruin their deposits. We should ruin logistics. But for that, as I have mentioned, we need long-range missiles. We don't have it. If it starts now, in coming weeks, as everything is saying, yeah, so the chances to be successful, well, not really high.

or at least these results will be as good as expected. So as I have mentioned, political aspects, yeah, so summertime, it's a dead season in politics in the United States, right? And we should take into account public opinion polls, support of Biden, and definitely he needs successes. Too much is at stake also for him. But this financial support, which was already

voted in December will be enough until August. So I guess this is the time limit of our counteroffensive and of results. So if we look back to the last year, yes, also was the same last summer after Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Russians occupied it, there was separation post.

Also, opinions, opinion polls in Europe and US show decrease in support of Ukraine. But then we had very good results. And again, it gave grounds that we still can win this war. And definitely we need these successes. But definitely what I can say that to occupy all territories, including Crimea, taking into account all these aspects, well, I would say not

not really high. A lot of lines of defense, even in Crimea, they are preparing without attack arms or something like that. And fighter jets, F-16, it will be very difficult. And Russians are trying. They are preparing. Definitely, they are counter-offensive. They know that there will be hours here.

And it's obvious to understand that they are preparing, first of all, to cope with it and then to start their counter-effects. Because they have resources, they are preparing resources, soldiers, also their...

keep mobilizing on contract basis, about like 20,000 a month. So therefore, I will not be surprised that these counteroffenses will be delayed. So I guess, if not sure, but my conclusions are that

this counteroffensive will be delayed or it will be like some small operations to check up as it was done last year in the first it was in kerson at the end of august september well we didn't have some good results russian propaganda was oh you see the counteroffensive failed and then we came

in another site in Kharkiv region and occupy it very quickly. So definitely it will be something new. Well, probably, and I hope, well, well,

it will be a maruple as well. I guess quite possible direction. But still, we need to wait. And as I have mentioned, taking into account how much is put on stake on the results of it, we definitely, we must be sure it will be successful. And only then. So it's better to wait than, you know, haste makes waste. In this case, it's like double, tripled effect we'll have.

Yeah, thanks, Maxim. I appreciate your thoughtful analysis. It's great to talk to you again and stay safe. And I hope to talk to you again soon. You're welcome. Always welcome, Jessica. Thanks for listening. And thanks to Gonca Varol for our theme music.