cover of episode 126. ANALYSIS: Pavel Slunkin on Belarus’ position vis-a-vis Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenka’s relationship to Putin, and whether Belarus would participate in a direct invasion of Ukraine

126. ANALYSIS: Pavel Slunkin on Belarus’ position vis-a-vis Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Lukashenka’s relationship to Putin, and whether Belarus would participate in a direct invasion of Ukraine

2023/2/24
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Pavel Slunkin: 本人讲述了在白俄罗斯的经历以及2020年离开的原因，详细描述了卢卡申科如何逐步巩固权力，以及白俄罗斯的政治环境。他解释了2015年明斯克谈判的背景和西方领导人的目标，认为该协议为乌克兰争取了时间，但也暴露了西方的不足。他还分析了2014年克里米亚事件后，卢卡申科与普京和西方国家关系的变化，指出2020年的抗议活动是关系转变的关键。最后，他探讨了白俄罗斯民众对俄乌战争的看法，以及白俄罗斯军队是否会直接参战的可能性，认为白俄罗斯军队参战的可能性较低，因为这会损害卢卡申科的权力和白俄罗斯的利益。 Jessica Genauer: 作为访谈主持人，Jessica Genauer主要负责引导话题，提出问题，并对Pavel Slunkin的回答进行总结和引导。她引导Pavel Slunkin讲述了其个人经历、对明斯克协议的解读、对卢卡申科与普京关系变化的分析以及白俄罗斯民众对俄乌战争看法的解读。

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Pavel Slunkin discusses his personal journey from living under the Lukashenko regime in Belarus to his decision to leave the country after the 2020 election protests and subsequent crackdown.

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Pavel Slunkin, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations), discusses Belarus' position vis-a-vis Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including what Pavel learnt from being present at the Minsk negotiations summit in February 2015, how Lukashenka's relationship with Putin has changed from Russia's territorial incursions into Ukraine in 2014 to Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, how the invasion is viewed from Belarus, and whether Lukashenka would commit Belarus to participate directly in Russia's war in Ukraine.   

More about Pavel Slunkin's work: Pavel Slunkin - European Council on Foreign Relations  )

Pavel Slunkin on Why the Belarusian army cannot help Russia in Ukraine )

Pavel Slunkin on Why the Belarusian regime and its people are not one and the same)

Pavel Slunkin on Why the West should keep a close eye on Lukashenka)

Pavel Slunkin on twitter: @PavelSlunkin)

Jessica Genauer on twitter: @jessicagenauer)

More about the host: Jessica Genauer )