cover of episode 124. ANALYSIS: Catrina Doxsee with a deep dive into Wagner’s relationship to the Russian state, changes in Prigozhin’s behavior and global security implications

124. ANALYSIS: Catrina Doxsee with a deep dive into Wagner’s relationship to the Russian state, changes in Prigozhin’s behavior and global security implications

2023/2/12
logo of podcast War in Ukraine: Update from Kyiv

War in Ukraine: Update from Kyiv
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
K
Katrina Doxsee
Topics
Katrina Doxsee: 瓦格纳集团并非单一实体，而是由多个公司、空壳公司和金融中介机构组成的松散网络，其活动故意模糊不清，这使得追究其责任和追踪其财务交易变得更加困难。瓦格纳集团与俄罗斯政府关系密切，其行动与俄罗斯政府的目标密切协调，并通过普里戈津与普京的关系与俄罗斯国家联系在一起。俄罗斯私营军事公司是非法的，但瓦格纳集团在俄罗斯境外运营并执行俄罗斯国家目标，这得到了克里姆林宫的默许。这种非法性反而给了普京对这些私营军事公司的巨大影响力，可以确保其活动与俄罗斯政府的目标保持一致。普里戈津公开承认领导瓦格纳集团并建立官方总部，显示其政治地位和权力提升，这与瓦格纳集团在乌克兰战争中的作用以及普京对瓦格纳集团的控制有关。瓦格纳集团成立于2014年，最初参与了俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动，随后参与了叙利亚、利比亚等地的行动，并在非洲多个国家开展活动，通过与当地政府合作，获取经济利益和地缘政治优势。瓦格纳集团参与乌克兰战争导致其在非洲等地的部署受到影响，资源和人员重新部署，新兵素质下降，内部矛盾增多，这将对其在非洲等地的行动产生负面影响。瓦格纳集团的活动对美国国家安全构成威胁，包括影响力扩张、军事和情报资产增加、规避制裁、侵犯人权和加剧地区不稳定等。美国及其盟友应密切关注局势，并与当地伙伴合作，提供可行的替代方案。 Jessica Genauer: 作为主持人，Jessica Genauer主要负责引导对话，提出问题，并对Katrina Doxsee的观点进行总结和回应，没有提出自己独立的论点。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The Wagner Group is a complex network of entities connected to Yevgeny Prigozhin and operates closely with the Russian government, including the Ministry of Defense and intelligence services.

Shownotes Transcript

Catrina Doxsee, Associate Director and Associate Fellow for the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS),) outlines the relationship between Wagner and the Russian state, why PMCs are not likely to be legalized in Russia, founding and evolution of Wagner, changes in Prigozhin's behavior, and global security implications of Wagner actiivty beyond Russia. 

*'The fact that PMCs are not legal in Russia... gives Putin a tremendous amount of leverage over those PMCs...' *

*'You have dissent within the ranks... as [Wagner] brings in populations out of prisons there's an intense social stigma between non-prisoners and prisoners in the ranks - as well as between the prisoners themselves given the very strict hierarchy socially in Russian prisons...' *

Catrina Doxsee on Putin's Proxies: Examining Russia's Use of Private Military Companies)

Catrina Doxsee and Jared Thompson on The Wagner Group's Mounting Humanitarian Cost in Mali )

Jared Thompson, Catrina Doxsee and Joseph Bermudez on Tracking the Arrival of Russia's Wagner Group in Mali)

More on the Transnational Threats Project)

Catrina Doxsee on twitter: @catrinadoxsee)

Jessica Genauer on twitter: @jessicagenauer)

More about the host: Jessica Genauer )