160. All eyes on Kharkiv
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Hello and welcome to Battleground with me Patrick Bishop and Saul David. These days all eyes are on Kharkiv. The battle to the east of Ukraine's second city is taking on huge political, military and symbolic significance as the world watches to see how serious the Russian threat is and how prepared Kyiv and its forces are to deal with the challenge.

Meanwhile, in Russia, Putin has finally moved to shake up the top of the military hierarchy by getting rid of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and replacing him with the relatively unknown Andrei Belisov. We'll be asking what this tells us about Putin's long-term war aims and whether we should be worried.

But first things first, Patrick, how is the new Russian front developing as we speak? It's very dynamic, isn't it, Saul? It's quite hard to get a good idea of what's significant and what isn't. At the time of recording, the Russian assault on the border zone is going on with more

Villages likely to fall to add to that 11 that have already been taken. But the infantry effort is actually pretty small with only about 3,000 troops committed, though they are supported by massive artillery and air bombardments. At this stage, I would say the effect and the Russian intent is psychological as much as anything else. The assault is combined psychologically.

with dramatically intensified air attacks on Kharkiv itself, with glide bombs and missiles, etc. I think the message is this war is going to go on and on. And we, the Russians, have both the time and the resources to carry on until you get sick of it. I don't think at this moment there's any real intention to take Kharkiv because the numbers in the area, there are about

35,000 troops, I think, simply aren't enough to carry out such an operation. Having said that, you know, it's not good. People are not feeling comfortable. Our friend Eskold Krushelnitsky spoke to a colonel the other day in the area who said the situation is serious and dynamic. It has the potential to develop dangerously very swiftly.

and the next few days will be critical. Well, he said that, you know, they're shoring up their defenses there. Apparently the troops in the area weren't particularly well defended. They didn't actually have very

very robust defensive positions, despite their very close proximity to the Russian border. So those troops are being reinforced, as you would expect. One of the most experienced brigades, the colonel said, have been sent in. He added that the Russians are taking very big casualties. And this brigade, he says, will be able to stop the Russian attack from spreading and then push them back or destroy them.

However, if this doesn't work out, Kharkiv could

could come into artillery range if these Russian advances continue, which would mean the population would be shelled night and day. Well, it seems actually, Patrick, that already the situation is stabilising a little bit. The ISW noted on Wednesday that the, and I quote, pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv or Blast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours. And the pattern of Russian offensive activity in this area is

is consistent with their assessment that Russian forces are prioritising the creation of a buffer zone in the international border area over a deeper penetration of Kharkiv or Blast.

This is almost certainly the result, as Askels mentioned, of Ukraine deploying more units to the area. Military Intelligence Chief Kirill Budanov said on Tuesday that the situation would improve as soon as more units arrive, and that seems to be the case. A Ukrainian army spokesman added that Ukrainian forces have started to, and I quote, clear one of the targeted settlements of Chansk.

But it's interesting, isn't it? As well as creating a buffer zone to prevent incursions into Russia, another obvious intention for the offensive seems to be to draw limited Ukrainian resources away from southern fronts, particularly the Donbass, thereby allowing Russia to achieve its longstanding aim of taking the whole of the Donbass, that is Donetsk and Luhansk. It must also have some bearing on the ongoing battle to take Chassiv Yar,

and that's west of Bakhmut, if things get to the point when Ukraine has to start stripping out units from there to protect Kharkiv, it could open the door to a genuine attempt to take the town. Once in command of the high feature of Chassivyar, the Russians could follow their usual policy of pulverising surrounding settlements, particularly those of some size, including Kramatorsk,

Slovyansk, Drukovskaya and Konstantinovka still in Kiev's hands, which would massively increase the Ukrainians' problems and weaken their defensive capability elsewhere. And that, of course, at some point in the future would make a serious attack on Kharkiv more feasible. Yeah, once again, the time factors becoming very significant, isn't it, Saul?

The Russians have had a bit of a window, you know, with the U.S. dithering over the aid package. But now it's come on stream, that's sort of narrowing very rapidly. By the way, I don't know if you noticed, it was very heartening to see Secretary of State Antony Blinken on a surprise visit to Kiev this week, making so many robust and unambiguous statements of ongoing support.

However, that was a reminder of another window. There is an election coming up in November. And despite the best efforts of Stormy Daniels, there's still a real possibility of a Trump presidency in the pretty near future, at which point Putin could, of course, be handed victory or at least the avoidance of defeat there.

on a plate. I just want to mention those glide bombs that I referenced earlier. They're becoming a real problem. They're, of course, a substitute for air-launched cruise missiles, which clearly the Russians are feeling the pinch on the supplies of those. And what they are, they're basically old-fashioned iron bombs, but they've been

fitted with fins and a laser or GPS guidance system, which turns them from being a sort of, you know, Cold War weapon into something like a 21st century weapon. They're launched from SU-34 and 35 fighter jets flying at very, very high speeds. And then they're sort of released, which gives them a range to glide in of 65 kilometers, which is a very long way. And the only way to deal with them

is to shoot down the carrier, i.e. the aircraft. And you can only do that with Patriot missiles, which the Ukrainians are desperate for more of, or other fast jets, which, of course, until they get the F-16s, are not going to be in the equation. So from what I hear, that's apparently not going to happen until July. So this is a real problem in the interim. Yeah, you mentioned Blinken. I mean, rather bizarrely, I don't know if you saw reports, Patrick, that he

he was actually playing and made a guest appearance in a rock band, a punk rock band last night in downtown Kiev. I mean, that must have been a pretty bizarre experience both for the rock band and for Kievans out for a night out. Yeah, but he's a bit of a rocker, isn't he? Do you remember when we were first talking about Blink and one of the extraordinary things about it because he looks like a

a real sort of, you know, product of the American sort of foreign affairs establishment. But he's a bit of a sort of closet, not so much closet. He's actually got his own band, I think. Yeah.

Yeah, that's right. Um, you know, which, which is good, you know, always good that these politicians have a bit of a hinterland. And, um, they, there was an interview this morning with a member of the band, slight bemused member of the band who said that actually they were expecting Neil Young. I mean, this was obviously the cover story, you know, for security reasons. And then Blinken turns up. So the question was, you know, were you slightly disappointed in the, at least the guy had the good grace to say, uh, uh, yes, but we were also pleased to see it was Blinken too. Um,

But, you know, on a more serious note, of course, Blinken's promise that the weapons now apparently arriving will make a real difference to the war effort. They include air defence interceptors, artillery and attackams, of course, these long range precision guiding missiles. So,

It's possible this will mean we're going to see an increase in strikes behind the lines and even into Russian territory. And this is certainly what military logic dictates. And it's high time Ukraine's Western supporters, as we said last week when Roger was guesting for you, Patrick, that Western supporters allow them to take the gloves off and hit wherever they think will bring the best results.

rather than imposing what are now clearly pointless restraints. Yeah, I think one positive you can say about the Kharkiv offensive is that it's persuaded or further persuaded America and Europe

that Putin has got to be stopped. And they're both going to have to clarify their thinking and be loud and clear about what exactly their war aims are. I mean, what's the point of spending all this money, sending all this kit to Ukraine, unless you've got a defined purpose, which should be obvious to everyone by now, that is,

to smash Russia in Ukraine and bring about the downfall of Putin and his regime. I mean, everyone's been very reticent about stating this sort of obvious fact

I mean, if Putin can claim any sort of victory, Europe's security will be critically undermined. We're going to talk about this later in answer to a question. But it's not only Europe. Anyone who lives alongside an autocratic regime has got much to fear if Russia wins. I mean, Blinken made the point in his visit that the attack on Kharkiv

It's essentially a joint effort. The Russians may be doing the fighting, but they're using munitions from North Korea, drones from Iran, components from China. Now, another interesting point about his visit, I think, is that when he said that America was going to make Russia pay or the world should make Russia pay for Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction, in part, that's going to be by seizing and immobilizing Russia's overseas allies.

But it's also a statement, really, that, you know, in negotiations, this will be a feature. This will be something that Russia has to sign up to, which says to me that.

that Russia will not get an easy ride. This is not, doesn't appear to me to be America saying to Ukraine, look, you know, you've got to do a deal. All that kind of mood music that was coming out of Washington a few months back seems to have faded away. So this seems to be to be a sort of hardening of the American position, at least as long as the Biden administration is in the White House.

Yeah, and that's all good news, isn't it? But it's taken its time, Patrick, hasn't it? We are still left with this slightly bizarre scenario that America is supplying lots of weapons now, but they are still sticking to these red lines. We don't think they should be there. We think the weapons should be allowed to be used against any legitimate target, whether it be in Russia or not. But

The early signs, frankly, given the new kit that's on its way and some has already arrived, a US official said on Tuesday that ATACOMs approved by Joe Biden were already reaching Ukrainian forces. And that does seem to be the case. At least 10 were fired at targets in Crimea in the early hours of Wednesday, but not, you'll know, Patrick, at targets in Russia proper. So it's bizarre, but it seems the early signs are that the shackles are still on. So what is...

America's aim in all of this, well, its stated aim and the West more generally has been for a long time to allow Ukraine to recover all its territories. Just the means by which they're insisting that this is going about, i.e. attacks can only be on Russian forces in those territories. Absolutely bizarre. Is this going to change? Well, we'll have to wait and see. Let's turn to the Shoigu affair though now, because it sounds a bit, doesn't it, like a 1980s thriller, right?

Well, after 12 years in post as Minister of Defence...

Sergei has finally gone. Who's his replacement? Andrei Belisov. And this again from Askel's colonel, who said, Belisov doesn't have much real military experience, but he is a businessman. Belisov could manage Russia's war industries more effectively and reorganize the economy, military, and manufacturing for a long protracted conflict. So, you know, that's slightly concerning, isn't it? And it does seem to be the thinking elsewhere. Certainly a lot of the analysts have been saying similar things.

Belasov's a serious figure. He dresses in dark suits and, unusual among Kremlin officials, doesn't have a reputation as deeply corrupt. So he seems to be the perfect man for the war of attrition that Putin is now clearly waging. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the decision to appoint him was linked to, and I quote, "...make the economy of the security bloc

part of the country's economy. Today on the battlefield, the victor is the one who is more open to innovation, more open to the most rapid implementation. And he added that at 6.7% of GDP, military spending in Russia was nearing Soviet era levels, obviously something to be proud of. But what Peskov seems to be forgetting, however, is that such high levels of defense spending are

ultimately unaffordable for an economy the size of Russia. And he's also forgetting the lesson of history, having mentioned Soviet era levels. I mean, in the end, the excessive defense spending that the Soviet Union had to incur to keep pace with the US eventually did for it. And of course, it might eventually do the same for Putin's regime. Yeah, well, here's hoping. Well, one thought that struck me was that old Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin,

must be laughing his socks off in hell at the demise of his arch enemy, Shoigu. Except, of course, that Shoigu has not been shot as he would have probably preferred, or pregogion, that is, or shunted off to the sort of Arctic coast.

penal colony where Alexei Navalny met his death. Instead, he's been kicked upstairs to take over Russia's National Security Council, replacing Nikolai Petrushev, who was the very hawkish predecessor. I think you need to be a real criminologist to understand the nuances of all that. So it's taken a hell of a long time for him to actually go, hasn't it? I mean, he should have got the chop along at least,

Two and a half years ago when Russia's blitzkrieg plan to conquer Ukraine failed miserably. And then, of course, the second key moment was a year ago when the Prigozhin uprising erupted. Listeners will remember that Shoigu was one of Prigozhin's

main targets on these video rants that he used to do against the corruption at the top and the mismanagement among the top brass. And yeah, Shoigu was a target for his particular venom and ire. And in fact, he singled him out by name just, I think, his last speech before his abortive march on Moscow.

And then, of course, his fortunes took a further dip. This is Shoigu when his deputy, Timur Ivanov, was arrested only a month ago for taking bribes. So Shoigu himself was regarded as being a pretty corrupt figure. But all this says to me that when we look at Russia and see that there are no obvious cracks in the surface of the Putin regime, we should not be too dismayed by that because it's

you know, this is a very rickety state, isn't it? The fact that he's actually held on for so long, Shoygud, doesn't really...

prove anything except that we don't actually really know much about how Russia works. But we shouldn't take that as a sign of the regime's robustness. Always bear in mind the enormity of the mistake that Putin made in invading Ukraine. This is a war. He can't win this war, even if Trump gets in. Ukraine can't be conquered, I don't think. And even in its present form, the war is ultimately going to be ruinous for him and for Russia.

Think of all those never-ending deaths. The desertion is a big element in the story that we should have a look at one day. All this is going to come home to roost sooner or later. Well, let's hope it's soon. Okay, that's enough for part one. Join us after the break when we'll be answering listeners' questions.

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Welcome back. Okay, the first question is from Tom. I was very interested in your podcast on President Theodore Roosevelt in early 1940. A great podcast. Thank you. He means, of course, FDR, Franklin Delano Roosevelt. But nevertheless, thanks for that, Tom. He goes on to say at the start of 1940, the USA sold the UK enough arms to extend the war, but did not win it.

Roosevelt had elections coming out later in 1940, strongly reassuring the Americans that he was not taking the USA to war. Today, it's been consistently said that the US strategy on Ukraine is to extend the war, but not enough firepower for Ukraine to win back its lost territories. The reason given is the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons threatened by Putin. Interestingly, Biden, like Roosevelt, faces an election at this critical time of the war. Do you think, here's the question, the US $60 billion investment

A package is aimed at extending the war in Ukraine by stopping the Russian advance or to give Ukraine the advantage to win back lost grounds.

Very good question. We've already looked a little bit at this. I mean, my thinking about this, Patrick, is that, as I've already mentioned, ultimately what the US would like to see is for Ukraine to recover all its lost territory, possibly with the exception of Crimea, by using the weapons it's been given by America and the other Western allies, but only on the battlefield in Ukraine proper. I mean, it's a

contradiction in terms, as we've already pointed out. What does it ultimately fear? Well, it probably fears not just the potential for nuclear war, although I think we all agree that's very unlikely, but actually a destabilization of Russia. I mean, it's interesting, isn't it? At the

of everyone's minds, is that actually the fear that we don't want Russia to be weakened too much by all of this. This will change the whole geopolitical balance in relation to Iran and China, which one of our listeners mentioned last week might want to take advantage of a weakened Russia. It's possible in the future. So it's possible that you could think of this, Patrick, not just about Ukraine,

stabilizing its situation and getting back most of its territory, but also not leaving Russia in too wounded a state that actually the whole region gets destabilized. I mean, that's my personal view of all of this, is that it may be that the US has actually learned from the Iraq farrago that destabilizing a critical point actually can bring problems in the future.

Yeah, I know it's a very finely balanced calculation, isn't it? As you rightly say, the Iraq experience does stand out as a very stark example of what happens when there is no

centralizing power when there's no authority or at least no authority that you yourself are not prepared to fill. And that, of course, is going to be impossible in the case of the collapse of Russia. There's no way that America or Europe can go in and hold the ring if you like. So there are all sorts of scenarios, most of which are bad. So you can completely understand the Americans' reluctance to actually set about bringing

the Putin regime done, even though that's a sort of desirable, I think, in the long term, I wouldn't like to be the person making the decision. So yeah, it's a tricky one. But I think we have seen a hardening of the American position and a decrease in pressure on Kiev to come to the table at some point in the fairly near future. Of course, once again, I've got to sound that cautionary note, all this could change in November.

So one of Saul's old pupils from his academic days, Gabriel, is in touch again. He says he's just been listening to last week's podcast. That was the one hosted by our colleague Roger Morehouse.

And he says that when Roger was talking about Germany's strange reticence, reluctance, I think is the word, to arm Ukraine, he failed to mention one cause which he thinks could be important on that subject of Germany's attitude towards arming Ukraine. We've got some voices from Germany later on who take issue with that. Anyway.

Gabriel's view is that one cause for their German attitude is that there's a lingering left-wing nostalgia for the Soviet Union. And there's also, he says, a strong streak of Russophilia, i.e. affection for Russia in right-wing circles as well. In Gabriel's view, there's

There's an influential segment, notably in business, but also in politics and among the intelligentsia, who feel that Germany and Russia are natural friends and partners. And this goes back at least to the Napoleonic Wars when Prussia joined Russia and abandoned its enforced French alliance.

in the convention of Tau Roggen. I'm afraid that's one that's passed me by. Maybe you know something about it. So anyway, he says that in Germany today, friends of his say that it's not uncommon to hear German business leaders and politicians complaining that the Americans and NATO is

is blocking Germany from pursuing its true course of friendship with Russia and asking why this is the case. Now, do you think there's something in that, Saul? Yeah, it's fascinating, isn't it? I mean, Roger was talking about the, you know, the sympathy from left-wing circles towards Russia, you know, this sort of Soviet Russophilia that there's a legacy, of course, of the GDR.

Well, it's fascinating, the point he's making, which is it's not just the left wing who have sympathy for Russia, it's also the right wing too, that they think that they're natural allies with Russia. I mean, pretty bizarre, frankly, the two world wars were fought between the two. There's an extraordinary kind of fear of Russia prior to the first world war. That convention you talk about,

Patrick Taurogan. I mean, this goes all the way back, as Gable mentions, to the Napoleonic Wars, when, of course, pressure was tied very tightly to France after the defeat at Jena and Auerstadt. And they eventually pull away from that. And I

effectively ally with Russia and, of course, the UK in finishing off Napoleon from 1813 onwards. So that's the change. And I think the point that some of these business leaders in Germany would make today is that's a much more natural state than friendship with France. It's turning the last 50 years entirely on its head, in my mind. And to consider an authoritarian state like Russia, as it is today, as a natural ally of Germany is

utterly bizarre. I mean, you could argue in the long term, if Russia changes its whole political system, that they could be natural friends with Germany, but certainly not at the moment. So it seems to me to be a completely bizarre position to hold. And yet, as Gabriel points out, there are historical reasons for the fact that it is the case.

Now, Stephen here is asking, since the announcement that the US will send a lot of weapons, there has been talk of how long it will take to reach the front line. Well, I think we dealt with that earlier on. Good news is it's coming through pretty quickly. But Ukraine isn't out of weapons yet, says Stephen. It's just having to ration them. Couldn't it just use its reserves, knowing that they're going to be replaced very soon? That would be much quicker, surely. Well, my reaction to that is that's a pretty risky strategy, to say the least.

given that we don't know who's going to be president of the United States in six months' time. But what are your thoughts? No, I think in the immediate term, I mean, given the emergency there is in Kharkiv or in the area of Kharkiv, it isn't a bad policy, actually. And not just there. Of course, we talked about Chassid Yar and other places that are under threat to...

As long as you get guarantees from the Americans that stuff's on its way. And it obviously is now. 60 billion's been, you know, the thumbs up's been given to that. This kit's coming. So can they actually use more artillery shells knowing they're going to be replenished? Yeah, arguably they can. So it's not a bad tactic. But, you know, the problem is you only know for sure what you can use if you've actually got it.

close at hand. And I suppose it's only natural that some of the commanders, particularly the artillery commanders, are going to be thinking, you know, we need at least a minimum reserve in case there's a big Russian attack before the main kit gets to us. So it's not a bad suggestion. I suspect they're already doing that. I suspect they are releasing some of their reserves, knowing that they're going to be replenished. But obviously, you need to keep a minimum.

Paul from Brooklyn writes, I would enjoy hearing an informed discussion on the consequences to Europe and beyond of a Russian victory in Ukraine. It doesn't seem like something my two main sources of international news, and that's the BBC World Service and France 24, want to examine. There are a lot of

claims, wild and otherwise. I don't know what's plausible. I'm not sure how much outrage there would be over the symbolism of a defeat of democracy. I have a friend who calls the Ukrainians a bunch of fascists anyway, and Zelensky a moron. He's a Russophile and wants Ukraine back where he thinks it

So I mean not just symbolic consequences, but tangible ones, although an event can have consequences that are both symbolic and tangible. Any thoughts on that, Patrick? Well, let's not underestimate the symbolic importance of a Ukrainian defeat event.

in whatever shape or form. I think a total defeat, as I said earlier, is unlikely, even if Ukraine was to collapse and Russia move in to install a Belarus-type puppet state. It would be a very unstable entity and very likely the setting for a low-intensity conflict with Ukrainian nationalist partisans, making life very difficult for the occupiers, as they did in the Second World War.

But think about it. I mean, Europe and America have invested heavily in sustaining Ukraine, even if they've not given them enough for victory. So if the Russians force a negotiation that ends in Ukraine ceding large chunks of land, it will all have been in vain. And the message the Russians will take away from this will be we have little to fear from NATO and the West anymore.

And the stage is set, not immediately perhaps, but sometime when Russia is ready to retake, for starters, the Baltic states. Who's going to stop them, given the example that has been seen in Ukraine? I think that the global situation could be summed up by a statement by George Robertson, a former British politician who ended up being a very effective secretary general of NATO, saying

who said recently that if Ukraine loses, our enemies will decide the world order. And I think that's a pretty accurate prediction of how things will develop. Think about China. China was going to feel massively emboldened if Russia gains success here, to press on with Xi Jinping's cherished project to swallow up Taiwan. But closer to home, I

I think a Russian victory will give a massive boost to nationalist movements inside Europe and deal a mighty blow to the European project, which is based on the idea of consensus and that problems can be solved reasonably and collectively. Basically, Europe and the West...

have put their credibility on the line over Ukraine. And I think that's one reason why French President Emmanuel Macron has turned so hawkish on the subject lately. Yeah, exactly right. And Paul's racophile friend who's described Ukrainians as a bunch of fascists and Zelensky as a moron, I suggest he

takes a quick visit to Ukraine to see the reality. I mean, this is the sort of nonsense we're hearing from people at both ends of the spectrum, Patrick, but particularly the right. The reality is that Ukraine's changed an awful lot. It's not perfect. There is still corruption there, but they are heading in the right direction and they are creating a society and an economy that will

will at some point in the future fit very neatly into the rest of the West. And if anyone in the West would prefer to live under the sort of authoritarian regimes that will be emboldened by Ukrainian defeat, then I suggest they head in that direction.

Now, a voice from Germany, Gerald from Hamburg, who says, as a German, I would still like to respond to your comments about Germany's alleged pacifism in the context of the tourist deliveries not taking place in episode 158. That was the last episode. He says, I'm not a fan of Chancellor Schulz's position with regard to Ukraine. Much was done too late and with too little foresight.

We positioned ourselves too often like a frightened bunch of sheep in front of Putin. And Scholz's tourist position is contradictory and hard to explain contextually. But too little is reflected abroad that Germany is now Ukraine's second largest supplier behind the USA. And our deliveries do not avoid offensive weapons at all.

Only today, as I write this email, Germany finds its three Heimer systems, not to mention Leopard tanks and Patriots. No, Germany, for good reason, sometimes does not make it easy for itself with its history. And the strange past pacifist centrifugal forces among our ruling social Democrats are also difficult for me to understand. Nevertheless, it should also be mentioned that Germany is one of Ukraine's most important allies.

supporters in this war. Well, that's absolutely right. And I think we've got to give credit where it's due. Okay, that's all we have time for. Do join us next Wednesday for another episode of Battleground 44 and also on Friday when we'll be giving you the latest from Ukraine. Goodbye.