#389 — The Politics of Risk
Making Sense with Sam Harris
Deep Dive
Why is Kamala Harris struggling to articulate her policy changes?
Harris appears evasive when asked about her past positions, refusing to acknowledge that she has changed her views. This has led to widespread confusion and suspicion among voters, who perceive her as a 'woke Manchurian candidate.'
What is Nate Silver's background and expertise?
Nate Silver is a former professional poker player and the founder of FiveThirtyEight, an election forecasting website. He is also a New York Times bestselling author, known for his books 'The Signal and the Noise' and 'On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.'
What are the two cultural camps Nate Silver discusses in his book?
Silver describes two rival groups of elites: the 'village,' which includes institutions like the New York Times and Harvard University, and the 'river,' which encompasses Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and high-stakes gamblers. The village is risk-averse and collectively organized, while the river is analytical, risk-on, and individualistic.
Why does Peter Thiel reject the concept of probabilistic thinking?
Peter Thiel is anti-probabilistic, viewing the world as deterministic rather than probabilistic. He objects to the idea of simulating the world multiple times, believing that his success is not a matter of chance but of determinism.
What was Sam Bankman-Fried's approach to risk management?
Sam Bankman-Fried was not known for deep risk management. He was fast at calculating but lacked depth in his thinking. His approach to risk was superficial, focusing on quick decisions rather than thorough analysis.
How has Silicon Valley's political engagement changed?
Silicon Valley has shifted from being politically aloof to actively engaging in politics. Influential figures like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel have become more politically involved, often aligning with conservative or libertarian causes.
What is the 'Gell-Mann Amnesia' effect?
The 'Gell-Mann Amnesia' effect refers to the phenomenon where people dismiss credible criticism of the media while simultaneously believing that the media is generally trustworthy. It highlights a cognitive bias in how people assess media reliability.
Why did Elon Musk turn against the Democratic Party?
Elon Musk's shift against the Democratic Party was fueled by his frustration over being excluded from Biden's EV summit and his strong opposition to the left's identitarian moral panic, particularly on issues like trans rights and immigration.
What is the 'prisoner's dilemma' and how does it relate to trust in institutions?
The 'prisoner's dilemma' is a game theory concept where two parties can benefit if they cooperate, but if they lack trust, they act selfishly and end up worse off. This concept illustrates how a loss of trust in institutions leads to inefficiencies and collective harm.
How does Nate Silver view the current state of democracy in the U.S.?
Silver sees democracy as precarious, with declining trust in institutions, political instability, and a Republican Party that struggles to define its role in global order. He also notes that democracy indices show a decline in democratic practices worldwide.
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