cover of episode Why The Fed Rate Cuts Were A Mistake | Michael Kao

Why The Fed Rate Cuts Were A Mistake | Michael Kao

2024/11/25
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Michael Kao认为美联储在8月份降息50个基点是错误的,因为当时经济并没有出现严重问题,反而存在多种供给侧瓶颈,例如石油供给受限、地缘政治因素导致的供应链紧张、房地产市场供应不足以及劳动力市场结构性短缺等。这些因素导致通胀可能反弹。他认为,美联储的降息行为不仅没有解决实际问题,反而加剧了市场对经济复苏的预期,并引发了全球竞争性降息,最终可能导致全球通胀加剧。他还分析了美元走强和油价相对高位对新兴市场需求的双重冲击,以及美联储在12月可能暂停加息的可能性。他认为,市场低估了通胀风险,因为供给侧瓶颈短期内难以缓解。他还讨论了低油价是战胜通胀的必要但不充分条件,以及人口结构性变化对劳动力市场和房地产市场的影响。他认为,美国经济对出口的依赖程度较低,因此能够承受强势美元,而强势美元可能对中国经济造成冲击。他还分析了地缘政治因素对大宗商品价格的影响,以及潜在的和平协议对资产价格的潜在影响。

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In this episode, Michael Kao joins the show to discuss why the Fed rate cuts were a mistake, the impact of the dollar wrecking ball, and whether an inflation resurgence is possible. We also delve into the December Fed decision, the oil market, and much more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:05) Powell's Policy Mistake

(10:02) Why The Fed Cut 50 Bps

(14:04) Reason For Economic Resurgence

(17:56) The Dollar & Fiscal Red Bull

(26:24) Ads

(28:26) Inflationary Concerns Maxed Out?

(34:49) The Dollar Wrecking Ball

(44:29) December Fed Decision

(47:14) The Oil Market

(52:01) Peace Dividend

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.