cover of episode Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan

Unpacking The Election’s Impact On Markets | Cem Karsan

2024/11/6
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Cem Karsan: 本次中期选举结果显示共和党取得全面胜利,这与历史上的民粹主义时期类似,都伴随着社会不满情绪和政治不确定性。这将对市场产生深远影响,可能导致通货膨胀加剧、市场波动加剧等。此外,他还分析了特朗普的政策和行为对市场的影响,认为特朗普是民粹主义浪潮的体现,而非其根源或解决方案。他认为,当前的社会变革时期可能会带来痛苦,但也可能带来积极的改变。他还指出,传统的民调和媒体对选举结果的预测失误,是因为他们忽视了长期社会和经济周期对民意的影响。 Felix: 就市场对选举结果的反应,Cem Karsan认为,市场对选举结果的反应,是长期通胀趋势加速的结果,而非短期事件。他分析了历史上的通货膨胀案例,指出通货膨胀与财政支出、全球冲突和石油短缺等因素有关,而这些因素都与民粹主义有关。他还指出,保护主义政策会加剧通货膨胀。此外,他还讨论了美联储的政策,认为美联储的政策受政治因素影响,未来可能面临来自政府的更大压力。

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In this episode, Cem Karsan joins the show to discuss the election’s impact on markets, the new era of populism, and the post-election volatility smash. We also delve into Trump’s impact on the Federal Reserve, the annual re-leveraging effect in markets, and much more. Enjoy!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(10:11) Pollster Miscalculations

(12:03) Societal Impact Of Election

(19:49) Secular Vs Cyclical Impact

(27:52) Ledger Ad

(28:37) How Will The Fed React?

(33:03) Money Printing & The Dollar

(35:38) Volatility & Market Structure

(43:39) The Re-leveraging Effect

(52:06) Market Outlook

(56:32) Learn More About Cem's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.