cover of episode Bits + Bips: Why Bitcoin Is a Leveraged Bet on Global Liquidity - Ep. 710

Bits + Bips: Why Bitcoin Is a Leveraged Bet on Global Liquidity - Ep. 710

2024/9/26
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A
Alex Kruger
J
James Seyffart
J
Joe McCann
S
Sam Callahan
Topics
James Seyffart: 我认为理解货币膨胀如何推高资产价格,以及不同资产对流动性变化的反应,对于投资者至关重要。比特币是一个有用的宏观经济晴雨表,即使你不投资它,也应该关注它。 Alex Kruger: 我注意到加密货币会议上的情绪与屏幕后的情绪以及聊天室里的情绪存在差异。会议上的情绪反映了加密货币价格的下跌,而屏幕后的情绪则截然相反。 Joe McCann: Token2049 展览规模巨大,展示了大量未在美国公开的加密项目和资金。在会议上,关于比特币的讨论很少,这可能是因为人们更关注能够带来高收益的另类加密项目。 Sam Callahan: 我认为美联储降息的真正原因是为了帮助财政部应对财政赤字问题。我们正处于财政主导地位时期,美联储降息是为了降低债务负担。我认为未来一段时期内,通货膨胀率将高于2%,可能在2.5%到3%左右。中国正处于流动性陷阱,需要采取措施刺激经济。我认为中国是推动比特币价格达到历史新高的最终因素。全球M2货币供应量与比特币价格之间存在高度相关性,比特币是相对于其他资产类别而言,对流动性变化最敏感的资产。比特币与全球M2货币供应量的相关性会在投机性牛市中失效。比特币ETF期权的批准将增加比特币的交易工具,降低其波动性,并可能吸引更多投资者。比特币ETF期权的批准将为银行创造新的结构性产品,从而增加其盈利机会。关于BlackRock和Coinbase持有比特币的担忧是毫无根据的。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The hosts discuss their experiences and insights gained from attending Token 2049 and Solana Breakpoint. They highlight the high sentiment among participants, the diversity of companies present, and the lack of focus on Bitcoin at these conferences.
  • High sentiment among conference participants despite market downturns.
  • Diverse companies and projects presented at Token 2049 and Solana Breakpoint.
  • Bitcoin received little attention compared to other cryptocurrencies at these events.

Shownotes Transcript

Listen to the episode on Apple Podcasts),** Spotify**),** **)Pods), Fountain), Podcast Addict),** Pocket Casts**), Amazon Music), or on your favorite podcast platform.

In this episode of Bits + Bips, hosts James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, and Joe McCann are joined by Sam Callahan of The NewsBlock to explore how macroeconomic factors and liquidity conditions are driving Bitcoin’s price. They dive into the Federal Reserve's recent rate cuts, the impact of Solana's token unlocks, and why many investors are concerned about a potential liquidity crunch. Plus, the panel discusses whether Bitcoin’s price is increasingly dependent on global M2 money supply, and how BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options could impact the market. 

Is Bitcoin simply a leveraged macro bet? And could Solana’s unlocks cause a price squeeze? 

Show highlights:

  • Alex and Joe’s takeaways from Token 2049 and Solana Breakpoint

  • Why there’s so little attention on Bitcoin at these conferences

  • The SOL vs. ETH trade debate

  • Why Sam thinks that the Fed cut rates to help the Treasury

  • Whether they think inflation will persist 

  • How China's rate cuts aim to boost its economy amidst export challenges

  • How Bitcoin's correlation with global liquidity can break down during speculative bull runs, despite its typical sensitivity to liquidity conditions

  • The pros and cons of the approval of Bitcoin ETF options

  • Why fears about BlackRock and Coinbase's bitcoin holdings are unfounded, according to James

Sponsors:

Stellar

Hosts:

- James Seyffart), Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence

- Alex Kruger), Founder of Asgard

- Joe McCann), Founder, CEO, and CIO of Asymmetric

Guest:

- Sam Callahan), Current Free Agent Analyst & Scribe of the NewsBlock

Sam’s research post with Lyn Alden)

Links

Coverage of Unchained on Token 2049 and Solana Breakpoint:

SOL vs. ETH

- **Unchained: **SOL on Course to Flip ETH, Says Multicoin Capital’s Kyle Samani)

  • Alex’s tweet:) “Ironically $SOLETH is barely up in 2024”

Rate cuts and macro:

China:

ETF options:

Kamala Harris:

  • Unchained:

 

Kamala Harris Makes Her First Comments on Crypto)

Harris Commits to Prioritizing Emerging Industries Like Blockchain in Speech)

Timestamps:

  • 00:00 Intro

  • 02:55 Takeaways from Token 2049 and Solana Breakpoint

  • 07:14 Little Bitcoin interest me at conferences

  • 12:23 The SOL vs. ETH trade debate

  • 17:32 Sam’s view on the Fed’s rate cuts

  • 28:55 Will inflation persist?

  • 41:14 China’s rate cuts and economic boost

  • 49:44 Bitcoin’s correlation with global liquidity

  • 1:02:43 Pros and cons of Bitcoin ETF options

  • 1:13:23 BlackRock and Coinbase Bitcoin holdings fears

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