The 2024 Presidential Election Breakdown With Alex Thorn
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Big aliza last night, the united states had an election and last night and election was concluded today to impact all of that with us is alex store in the head of research at galaxy digital. He's going to help us understand the impact of the election of results last night and what IT means for the cypher to industry moving forward. Alex thinks so much for I know if I was a long last night and its early morning this morning. Thank you so much for coming on the show and and impacting all of this with us.

Yeah, you're welcome. David hrymer, wow. I mean, wow, what what a night. I think Better than certain in the main street media would have had anybody expect.

I think that's right. I think that's right. That's definitely big topic is the gap between the mainstream media and, uh, our more crypto native news sources. Polly market definitely, uh, having a front tens center here. But first I want to just kick things off, alex.

With the red sweep now last night, the republicans one, the presidential race, the senate, the house in the Cherry on top, IT looks like the popular as well. Just first reaction. Well, what does this mean for crypto? What does this mean for our industry?

Its game changing. We are about to enter a golden era of cyp to in bitcoin in amErica there. That sound that you're hearing, maybe you're hearing some static that's thousands of crypt up entrepreneurs buying tickets to move back to the united stay.

This is an absolutely an absolute game changer um you're going to have endless nonstop catalyst every week for eighteen months the headlines are going to knock your socks off just like the former president said in nature, we're going to be so tired of winning, sir. We're going be begging him, please so no more winning. No more electricity, sir.

I mean, no, it's truly game changing that the former present has his own defi protocol. Yes I mean he's plenty. You he's he's sell as nf. This is um obviously, he's made tons of pledges and he's adopted an entire process pto agents. But it's not just that he's got Howard lesniak said he owned shed loads of bitcoin.

said it's hundreds that ward .

and the chair of his transition team means to the sea of a jailed the primary a dealer bank that um to deal with .

tether to get child o and there .

are also I mean one of the biggest and most iconic american banks um and he's leading trump's transition team you've got vivek rua swami on the team who loves bitcoin. Cyp du J D.

Vance owns a bunch of bitcoin, at least we know and and loves IT, right? You got robbert of Kennedy junior, I mean, this is a team of people around him know, not to mention his entire family, right? Don junior, an american supposedly barren, also all of cypher u right. So I think there is a very, very strong chance that um the next four years are just truly game changing for the upside for cyp to I .

think the big surprise here. I think if you asked to the average cyp to partisan a pin who is going to win, they would say probably probably going to be trump. Ah the polls were giving us uh, fifty fifty poly market was giving A A decent edge to trump yeah but I think the new thing that the surprise is the sweeping landslide so can you like what is what is why is that gap significant? So I know the difference between a solid trump Victory and a completely sweeping landsat was the significance of that yeah.

this is a shot across about across a number of bows, right? I mean, start just maybe with the the mainstream meeting there was a significant divergence between even sort of major propriety forecasting models and the prediction markets and odds, right? As David like yet Polly market predicted interactive brokers, uh, a robbin hood, all these bookies, they all had IT for entrance for over the whole time.

They lessons like, but in some cases sixty, forty or higher, right? And but like nate silvers model, converge to fifty, fifty last on monday night, like five, thirty eight was much closer. Now they they mostly slightly favoured trump. But so but these you know that there's a joke about statisticians but like there's all these like like minds and charge on the thing and and at the end, like I don't know, fifty fifty .

garden flap right way, they can never be wrong.

I mean, he look, he he was probably slightly favoured to win, but I don't think that is certainly even in his cap from republican friends of mine last week were concerned they were worried maybe was slipping right you a near Victory, let's say, mean the outcomes on both sides. Where could have been two seventy to two sixty eight in the electoral college that would have been a disaster for the country in general. Like I think it's fair given what happened in twenty twenty trump grievances about that, the outcome of that election, that we, no matter who want you, hope that would be big so that there wouldn't be like weeks.

months of litigation.

right? Yeah, I really and so I mean, look, I think he's going to win the popular vote. He's not just going to win the electoral gy. He looks like he's going to win the popular vote. That hasn't happened in like five or eight elections for republicans more remind yeah I .

okay so so the presidential obviously confirmed, uh, very confirmed senate. Uh.

house as well is the house now? The house is is leaning republican. It's relick now, but only two two seats like it's barely republican today. We won't probably know even maybe for a couple of weeks.

There's just a lot of races and a lot of a little places and many will be very close and some will go on recounts that just take a little while. The senate is confirmed that was not unexpected even even a big Harris Harris would have had a really land slide, I think to Carry to hold the senate. And um the the map is really bad for for democrats the cycle um the big the big big win for for crypto here is berty marino on seeing shared Brown in ohio.

stared broin unseeing so important for the current industry yeah shared Brown is the current .

chair of the senate banking committee um in a democrat he is a big ally of senator alisa but born who's senior on the senate banking committee he I would say he has not been good for cyp to he hasn't been the most vocal like outspoken opponent but fair shake spent the most money of any race in this race cyp to money I think when I looked yesterday they had spent twenty million dollars in this race shud Brown in favor of burning marino because shadd .

Brown gets an f strongly against scrip. I mean he even voted against things like sab one .

twenty one repeal yeah I mean even democratic senators voted for that right so um he he is in the senate banking committee oversees the securities and exchange commission, right? And so that committee is integral to financial regulation in amErica and he is a major road block to getting anything done right.

If you had like any you know even just a moderate on cyp to in charge of that as a democrat, we might have seen fit twenty one come up on the floor in the senate, or a stable coins or something for crypto to spend so much money and unseat a guy who IT was so important in the senate. Like this is a shot across about against every antiChrist to member of congress right now. This shows that the industry can flex .

muscle and deliver. This is a brian armstrong, he said, this aftermath, welcome to the new members of america's most pro crypto congress ever. Two hundred nineteen plus pro cyp to candidates and counting have now been elected to the house and senate tonight.

The crypto voter has spoken decisively across party lines and eat in key races across the country. Americans disproportionate care about crept out and want clear rules of the road for digital asset. I mean, I think this speaks very highly to script those that like let's talk from an industry perspective and kind of a campaign perspective to its ability to like organize this election. I mean, the stand crypt to website was like kind of genius.

And all of the the funding impact money in uh directed races like also had a massive impact that I don't think the presence of copd u in any other race has like felt anything like this, but you really felt the presence of crypt du and not just like you know organizers and donors and and groups like coin base in a sixteen and but like kind of in the grass roots with with stand with script. I mean, there was a really a push to overturn some of these anti crypto o army type candidates. And IT seems to have worked like IT seems to have paid dividends.

I don't think we go back from that. I mean, like big winners coming in the election, obviously, were cyp. Do I think the cyp du industry, its ability to shape politics also, I would say Polly market, by the way, on Polly market, that's how I um you like saw that trump was winning and I was watching kind of maintain stream news as I usually do, like calling elections going step by stay and .

that's .

going so slow, so slow, low. And while I was on my phone, I was just seeing like this, which i'd seen in many this is what a market looks like when it's resolving. okay.

So if you can see the screen, what i'm showing is kind of like Donald trump s suddenly spiking up, like volatility and the commuter ris odds suddenly spiking down. I saw this in so many markets, in polling markets that are resolving. And I you when you saw trip up beyond seventy five percent to eighty percent was like, well, it's over and that happened around like eight thirty nine o'clock.

Like Polly market was a huge winner in this as well. And that's a crypto. It's a crypto project at the end of the day.

So a lot of wind's year, yeah big winds in in pollen. Was we watching as as you sort of go east to west, right? They come in in in the east coast states first.

And and then as you go across the country and polls, clothes, florida was something we were watching really closely, right? It's been republican for several elections, but miami date county, where miami the city is, and then panel is county right outside of tampa. To that we were watching really closely.

And you could see IT react on Polly market. So Hillary won my me day by more than thirty points. okay? Biden only wanted by seven. Trump wanted by thirteen, twelve or thirteen.

Um and so a massive shift I me we were talking almost a twenty point shift in his favor same thing panellist has voted correctly in every presidential election for like the last hand, except for two thousand. And as those results and trump trump on IT last night and as those results and even just those carrots and in floor of the margin of Victory in florida, more than. Ten points.

It's going to end up being ten or eleven. You saw Polly start reacting and the same thing that looked like Virginia was way closer trump than IT than IT was expected to be. And you just saw that Polly was creeping up seventy two, twenty eight.

Then it's like I felt like reading this as I was like looking at mainstream news kind of reporting on this and looking at the Polly market markets. I felt, oh, I know this like six hours in advance yeah exactly.

Um IT really was is a big deal to write him in. If Polly like if the election goes the other way, everyone's going to say wo prediction markets don't work, right? Oh, it's too thinly traded. All these offshore no predicted. Is this crazy when you know the australian one where they have a consent decree with the cftc that allows them to exist as ean academic project, that they actually a limit on the total number of trades and amount bet that can be done. So for like the last two weeks, it's been like fifty five, fifty two, like an unable to resolve properly as a .

market since the brain.

Yeah they're only letting like one out, one in at the end. So um these these could have looked I mean, if Harris one polar market would be have a lot of una reputational problems. It's not like therefore all its a free market.

But I mean this you know mean again, the margin of lead he's hand for Frankly months like I think is vindicated here. We know that Polly odds are not forecast models for how much he's going to win by right likelihood of Victory and IT turns out and he want bigger than he won in sixteen or IT looks like at least as much, right? I mean, it's gonna be it's going to be a big resounding win.

And so those like sixty, forty odds like that seems reasonable right now. And so I I don't know this is especially again, if you get changed in regulation, obviously, cause you won that suit against the cftc like a man or two ago that has basically made pop prediction markets on elections legal. Now in the U S. Um these things may have a very bright future.

I want to unpack and nuance between the difference between Polly market in mainstream media. The common talking point about the reaction to watching the election last night was Polly market called the first. You could have guessed who is going to win by watching Polly market hours before.

Had you been watching like mainstream media this is like a big plus to Polly market to the prediction market model but um and and then people are just like lamenting about a mainstreet media thing like man they're so biased there are these swing states that they are saying are too close to call even though they are like eighty five percent of the baLance have been counted and so people were saying like there's there's a bias in mainstream media um because they're just refusing to call these things. I want to actually be doubles advice for this uh mentally media when they call a state, you do not uncle a call. And so they have to be rocks solid.

sure. They need to be like ninety eight percent that that state is going to go in that direction. So i'm kind of like pushing back against the main street media, not calling states soon enough. Uh is biased idea I am actually so saying i'm going to present the idea is not about the bias media media. It's about the Better mechanism of prediction markets that can actually inform us at a sooner and less bias um point in time. The mainstream media that's kind of like might take about pushing against the kind of the discourse about like the bias nature about states that are too close to call as you have a reaction to that.

Yeah, I totally agree. I mean, think about the way they they call the states um like A P nbc news these A R there's a third one Polly needed to in order resolve um they they look at the actual votes. They say how what is the margin of of lead by one candidate and how many votes are outstanding until the vote of staining can't possibly flip the the election to the underdog.

They don't call IT. They're not predicting the outcome. They're saying is that even possible when it's not possible for the leading candidate to then lose that when I call IT?

Let's get into some Price action. Bitcoin touched seventy five thousand dollars last night, which is an all time high. Congrats to bitcoin. Well done and well done doge coin up fifteen percent likely do to elon's significance. And I can't help to notice that some classic sec targeted coins like uni are also unis, that with the number two big mover in the top one hundred coins and the last twenty four hours.

oh, we finally get the v switch .

on when ever kill the fees watch on the boot is coming off. A lot of these like invested, like investment tokens rather than main points. A alex, just any comments unlike the Price action.

I mean, again, bittorrent was moving well before, like sort of in line with Polly. I mean, looked at these these markets looking moving similarly. I think it's underived ly bullish for I mean, like I was saying at the top, I don't begin more detail but IT is A A trump presidency one let alone a senate.

It's also republican that a point has confirm his appoints underived ly bullishly for the industry. Um I think so. I don't think it's unexpected. I think it's it's quite poetic that bitcoin made an all time high on election night. I mean that yeah, you do like to see that he was very exciting.

I hear galaxy know pretty much the entire trading and research teams was was here until, like, you know, one of the morning so we were watching this live and I I don't know, I hope no, i'm not sure that i'm ready just yet. I think mostly because of solon's competition here. But you've got to a think if BTC isan at or near bottom M, I think if the regulatory regime is about to move and you broad cyp dos favor because again, you mention uni swap, the ad layer either has been sort of through it's it's made IT through finally with the etf.

But the applause er in crypto is is under regulatory scrutiny, right? And theory is the largest platform for crypto apps. There is particularly the biggest one in the in the one most subject of financial regulation, which is defy.

So I think you're going to see more gains in in, in defied tokens in in broad crypto, all coin land. I think it's going to be were really just getting started to me. I went right to bed right as the thing was being called by them.

So I like then I I only got up like A M right and then rushed you to get on on this. So I even i'm still digesting this. I think the market is still adJusting in two, and you want to have tried five markets open in three minutes as well. So oh yeah.

I I feel it's so so we will see what coin Price does, will see what Robin hood does.

Point is up so big premarket is up over ten percent.

I mean, right? It's like these companies literally have wells notices against them that are going to like literally you said at the top evaporate. We're going to go away. They're gone, right? So and there are many so many, many ways we can take this five .

hundred is premarket up to two point one percent like ah the major diseases up, like it's the critter link equities are up .

and I think I actually .

what is down.

I'm a bit like you i'm kind of like I am letting this sinking, but i'm surprised that markets haven't reacted even more favorably like particularly ecliptic markets because I just wanted pete this framing. okay. So like for the first decade in the us, regulators largely kind of like ignored crypto, right? IT was like the first day I ignore you type of thing.

We have gotten to cut that. They're laughing a crypto. It's just like ponzi schemes, whatever, right? And then for the last four years or so, we've been in the then then they fight your type phase, okay? So they have been fighting us.

This is what Operation choke point is. This is what the embodiment of gary lor sending seven wealth notices just this year. One, i'll note, six days before the election, he sent a wells notice to a mutual, a gaming platform.

If, by the way, if this doesn't signify the hubris of the democrats, and like the commonly hairs campaign, like letting this happen, the White house, letting this happen, wealth notice to cyp to six days before the election, like that's basically like crypto voters don't matter to us OK know the results show that they maybe should have thought that through a little bit worse. Anyway, all of this, all of this reverses. We have never been encrypted u in at a time when we had U U S.

Regulatory tailwinds theyve. They've always either been nothing like completely ignoring us, are laughing at us or headwinds. okay? And that's what we have had for the last four years, headwinds.

All of these tokens here, they can only be like useless governance tokens because we can have a fee switch on top of them even though they're generating so much cash, right? So all of our tokens are new tech. We have Operation choke point.

We have like a stable coin legislation that can move forward. We have gary genser blocking all of our crypto entrepreneurs from like doing anything. But I can't even it's the U. S. And I can't even get like an air drop you because .

i'm geo blocked you free free money.

And it's all because of like the the regulatory headwinds that we've been facing and all of that will completely reverse. I don't think i'm overstating this. I say, okay, okay. Like can we go through method ally of like what exactly is going to reverse and be on done all of these these like bad spells that have been cast for the post of the last four years are going to let go away. So I know gary games are, is getting fired.

I think I think let's start with, yes. Ec, right? Because I think gensler, we know that trump, I mean, his biggest line of applause at in nashville was to fight against like, he was taken a back yeah, he was like, was like, well, I know he was so unpopular like, by the way.

how did the democrats not see that clip and just be like, oh, this is an unelected official and he's like thinking our party like that, he seems unpopular. Why didn't they not throw him under the bus?

And it's a good ray question. And you can imagine the political capital that president biden had to spend videoing that S A B one twenty one overturn is ridiculous. Like they came out when the house passed the overturn and the national economic council released spite the White houses statement of administration policy, which is their position where they said they would.

Vito IT. If IT came to his desk, they described the S A B one twenty one overturn is basically in apocalyptic financial terms, which is like ridiculous. It's it's an arcane like tax issue.

And banks are the most heavily regulated industry in america. So like they can do stuff in the regulator. They have potential regulation, okay? That means that the regulator can come in and tell the bank what to do.

It's not like little mature. They can be like take this off your baLanced and cellars right now, whatever is something bad, right? So IT was never that big deal. And the fact that then, in face of that veto thread, a bunch of democrat voted to overturn anyway, and biden had the video, what do you think bidden wanted to waste political capital on this ridiculous minor thing from the .

s return on investment? I mean, that is literally investing in a political ship.

So gangster, or though firing gangster, or I think most constitutional scholars agree that the president cannot actually fire A A duly a term disappointed independent commission member. Most, alternatively most agree that the president can appoint a different acting commissioner, almost acting chair, almost immediately so whether cancer is fired I think remains to be seen. Whether the trump administration even tries to fire cancer or we don't know um but he is very likely upon taking office, to appoint one of the existing republican .

commissioners .

has to R I know mark eta .

is also great Marks fine.

but I would love.

I love has as well. I've had hassle galaxy brain, my podcast. She's a brilliant I think she's a brilliant mind.

One of those support yeah very prints of very thoughtful, very polite, very bright. I mean, one of those two is likely to become the acting chair almost immediately. So they they and so good I haven't .

gone through every single .

action the sec has taken in which of them were actually voted on by the commission. Verses can be immediately changed, but they can uh replace the entire staff of the enforcement division or the entire leadership of enforcement almost immediately. Um that's why I think among the first things you're going to get is exempted relief. So you're going to see no action letters sent. You're going to see uh the coin base and crack in lawsuits withdrawn.

You're going to see processes, how do they do that way, every single wealth and will turn into no action.

You i'm sorry, yeah very, very possible.

I think if you if you have received wells notice in general, that's an indication from the staff of the enforcement division of the c that they intend to sue you if they haven't filed. I'd be shocked if you see any of those filed. If you're gonna wells notice but not in sued, i'd be shocked if you end up getting sued.

If you have been sued, it's gonna a be a little bit trickier because courts really don't like IT when big lawsuits are are filed with big like a poc olympic angry terms and then you're like hobbs, just kidding on me. Withdraw that like so honestly, there might even be some incenses where instead of actually withdrawing, the court forces a settlement between the S. C, C.

And just takes a settlement.

Yeah I mean, these are largely at the discription of the enforcement division and and the chair, I would say .

so the big ones, alex, like the ones coin base and crack in and in uni swap the ones that we've heard about uh like .

how far I know most have no not as well as in a year and half maybe or a year um but again, like they're not like too far mean they can definitely be amended or withdrawn or settlement. Dean, about this. I didn't even realize this really until we saw them send the well's notice to comberton.

But I don't know why didn't realized this. Maybe i'm just too optimistic. But we know theyve basically gone after every single us.

Exchange, right you basically have coin base crack in gm I encysted 点 com I think really Operating at scale in the U S。 And and not many others. I don't think maybe any others.

Um all of those cones and crack and have lawsuits are filed against them. Crypt dot com received the wells notice and preemptively sued. I don't know what's up with german I, but they had a whole bunch of ecc stuff with gman I earned and and other stuff.

So that's the entirety basically of the U S. Like retail exchange market. Then you started to see comberton, which is OTC institutional only market, same basic loss of value to register as a national security exchange trading unregistered security. I think if ga ciller and this current esc had remained in for like another year or two years 1， it's very likely that within that time period you wouldn't be able to buy or sell anything in the us.

Other than like bitcoin or either like seriously, okay, okay. This is what I feel like non cyp to people, just like a cyp to of a french issue. They have no idea going on in the crypto industry like gary gang cell's S.

C, C in particular. You combine that with choke point, which what i'm sure we will talk about was like targeting all legitimate rpt to companies in the U. S.

This to me, i've never, i've never been on the inside of an industry in the way that I am encysted a, but this has got to be unprecedented, like the attacks they just kept coming. And IT was everybody in the industry. Like, I don't think people realized how extreme IT was and why this was existent.

Al, for cyp. Du, and so some people point IT like the amount of money that the ecru pda is kind of put into this a cycle, like, oh, you you trying to buy all the politicians, it's like we're trying to stay alive, okay? Like without this, without playing the game, we didn't create the game.

We didn't create this game. We did like vote yes on citizens united. We would vote for money in politics.

But like we're in the game. And if you're not at the table, you're on the menu. And this election cycle clipt, I decided to be actually at the table. And you know that the reason like IT got these winds coming out of IT, that's totally right.

I agree. It's not fair to maline crypto for advocating for itself. It's also you know right to your question about like has this ever happened before? I've only I worked at fidelity and galaxy in my entire career.

I was affinity for twelve years. So I have an act exactly been around a bunch of other industries either. But you know, one, if we think about show point, right? Show point.

One point was against, like what we know, grey area businesses, not even great, but like things like the paid lending industry, very predatory in the scheme of things, right? But also like guns, totally legal, constitutionally protected, right? And so those are legal industries, you know, that were directly targeted, right, specifically targeted with the, by the way, choke point one point o choke point that was their name for as far as we know, I think there are some foyer requests to the government to see if IT was ever called show point two point out, regardless of whether they called IT, that IT absolutely has been that in for an industry as beneath, I mean, it's not paid lending.

Don't get me wrong, I think we all know there's been plenty of scams. It's open source financial software, right? So like of course, you know bad actors can use IT. We're not asking the encrypt industry is not asking for a free pass for asking for rules that allow good innovative actors to thrive.

And we want the regulators to go after scammers and this nobody is saying we don't right um but of course, you mention like the most high profile actions taken by the S C, C have been against the best actors, right? F, tx, they did nothing right sale as they did nothing right. But but but you know coin base, this is a publicly traded company.

This is the most transparent cyp to company in the united states, basically by by rule because their public right cc should want more to be public that that's transparency. Um so it's been really unfortunate in general, I would say. And at show point, here's another good example.

What's can happen quickly, right? Scc, it's a little tRicky. It's an independent commission. I said that you'll see some immediate relief. Um I would say also the industry wants longer term statuary relief.

We want legislation right so that you know if in four years you are our biggest staff IT is with warn where to become president you know like you know um then then I won't be you just immediately roll back, right? We don't just want exempted relief like no action letters and halting actions against us. We want permanent illegal status, right? That will could take the entirety of a four year term for that even happen.

But what will happen quickly is all the stuff under treasury, where there's no question whether the president can appoint a new control of the currency of the occ, which is the primary potential regulator for national banks. So if you remember that couple weeks ago, the S A scheme sort of, I said was exempted, relieved. Technically it's not, but they created this effectively loops that let bny melon avoid S A B one twenty one.

They said, well, if your potential regulator, primary potential regulator, says that you can do script down and you know you have a bunch of all the risk mitigation stuff, of course, it's the oldest bank in amErica be and why they do have that stuff, then you can proceed and you don't have to Carry IT on your baLance, share your clients script assets. And so we are all like, well, I mean, there's only bny is its primary potential regulator is the new york department of financial services. And so we know that though N Y dfs has I mean their strict, obviously, but like they have the bit license, they have legalized crypto in new york if you have the right license.

So that's why we knew was bny even before they said IT with them was because that's the only big bank that we think wanted to do IT that has a primary potential regulate that would allow IT. Well, a lot of other banks that are national banks, there are primary potential regulators, the occ. And we knew that the current occ under acting controller, mike zu, would not allow IT.

Well, a new trump appointed one will almost certainly low IT. So so banks being allowed to do stuff with crypto o let alone the cypher to companies is open bank accounts was really what showing was about. That's kind that changes fast.

I mean, you can appoint a new acting almost right away um with a senate. It's in republican ands he can probably get them confirmed for the full term right? And so you start to see now then you have the F, D, I, C as an independent commission also.

But similar to the c, he can probably, trump can probably make a new acting. right? Because that the main players and choke point is the occ, the fd I C and the fed, right? We can't do much against the fed.

But if the national primary potential regulator is is saying it's OK or or to stop discriminating, I think one of the first things you might see out of occ is, is a rule is expressively prohibiting, but you know bias against companies that want bank accounts if they're legal, right? I think we had that in the first time presidency. They came in one of the first things that they did at the occ was explicitly make that against the rules choke point style. Um so I I think that that that just ends pretty fast. I mean, it's not um it's not much of a question.

Yeah of course isn't just good for cypher, but i'll just call a good for freedom, good for the right to transact in amErica kind of restoring some of the foundations of this country upon uh also is a bunch for more topic that I want to get to um free ross is on the table. Uh I want to talk about the tech sector because his orka the tech sector or has been liberal, it's been very conservative this election.

Also, elon musk is the topic I want to bring up. There's a lot more we have to impact. But first, before we get to all those subjects, we have to take a break and talk to some of these anti c sponsors who make the show possible if you want.

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Crypto, what's going to happen? Next one, to summarize some of this with a tweet from a Victor bune, he says, crypto one. Next we're going to free ross fire gary and the Operation chick, point to doto, pass common sense, stay behind legislation, enable in kind redemptions, turn on staking in theory mtv, shut of the c lafite investigations and provide regulatory clarity for cyp to I feel like that about summarizes IT and Alice before the break you're talking about Operation and check point getting on wound like the changes coming to the C I think a lot of the regulatory headwinds that we've been facing have been due to the administrative state.

They've been really coming out of the White house and the cabinet and those that the by administration of kind of like selected in positions of power round themselves with. Do you have any sense for what like the trump cabinet might look like and the trump administration might look like as were all expecting sort of a complete pivot from the types of folks that were in the White house and would have been part of a common herri administration. But like, do we have any names for who's gonna treasury secretary necks in that type of thing there?

A bunch of speculation that really has only really just begun this morning like I was watching cnbc before I got here in tell my rich best in the target, my Howard latinic at at the treasury.

Are there Polly markets for this yet?

migrate? There should be ted, nor from tennessee has been a long time who's, by the way, very probiotic in in cypher u has been a long time mentioned as a party um know um the Robin hood's chief legal officer and galleries but mentioned at sec um the Robin does a lot in cyp to i'm sure that would be good for crypto. Um we don't really know I would say at a high level you yet it's it's still pretty.

We do know that they're gonna procyon to because like actually last trumpet administration, here's like Steve muni an the secretary of the treasury was in not procreate to in fact people forget but during like the party days of the trouble administration you actually trying to like pass some sort of administrative state warfare against um you know self custody dio wallet that was like a nightmare .

scenario to require reporting and hosted wallet transactions if they were over like three thousand dollars so you would have to like effectively register your pressure, your letter with with the bin center, with coin base, they were enough to give over information. It's kind of like a national .

crypto registry. We're going to get none of that this time around. You're you like hundred .

percent confident of this yeah I think the only things that that are Frankly probably aren't going to be much different under trump or by and or Harris is relating to like the like the sanctions and bank secrecy act.

I think you know because trump and his team are so procyta um that probably slightly Better but if you think about all of that stuff like out of fine sand and the and the the t fy, the terrorists and financial intelligence office inside treasury and in fine and and o fac, like that stuff is on a very like hard to reverse snowball like post nine eleven bureaucracy where it's like and and you could imagine some of from foreign policy and goals like bump up against like you know never sanctioning a cypher to company and stuff like that. I still think even on the big topics like tornado cash or samari wallet, you've still probably see leasing and cypher s favor because those those are currently unfair as well. I mean, in the scheme of things, right? But in general, like other than that, it's going to be like a major improvement. I think maybe that's a slight .

improvement ah oh fact in kind of hinson in the financial surveilLance state is tied up national security. Really hard to roll back back. But I I do and ask because not on Victors list was the rimn storm case, which is like top of mine by the way, for bankers listeners, that was scheduled for december.

Now there's been pushed back to a April, I believe. Even if, of course, room storms turn to cash. Developer rested from his home for the D.

O, J. You deployed you like a privacy smart contract, and of fact, made that illegal. This is actually something that i've not heard trump talk about. But you have to kind of wondered, depending on who's running treasury, whether would they remove sanctions from toronto cash? I would guess, likely not.

But will they at least drop charges? The roman storm case, or, like with trump, even pardon him, we have a ross all brick on the list as when he intends to part. This is a campaign promise, I believe. What what are .

your thoughts in this is sad when something so important to people's lives and and and also roommates life, obviously and and but also, you know, liberty, I think on its way, is subject to such sort of political machinations. right? There is going to be a point where it's like, I don't know where that line is, but where it's not politically helpful for the trump administration to do certain things.

And so then you're looking at like, well, maybe even we agree with you, but we've gotten get this other bill pass right now. We don't have time to like go to war on this issue like and and detecting the problem for me with toronto cash and and Frankly, some of samra is on a principal basis, what was done, I think is very defensible, right? Like releasing autonomous software.

It's like going after microsoft because like alcade wrote a memo and microsoft are right. There's I really think IT is like that. On the other hand, like there's those there's chats.

They d never blocked the front front when they knew they could like there are bad facts there that speak a little bit to intent rather than another nuth of facts that actually matter for what the charges are in my opinion, right? So I shouldn't matter I think if your roman, you hope if that goes before a jury though there's can be plenty of love stuff for for you prosecutor. Just the point to that.

Make them look like bad actors, right? And so I think and also i'm not an expert in this, but like D O J historically has been one of the more independent you know cabinet level agencies at the federal government is not clear that like the president can call up the U S. Attorney of wherever and we like drop the case. Um he again he might .

try probably probably the scheme of things, right we do want some separation here of a prosecution ability, right course in the kind of the court system .

is this kind of thing. But and I party this brings up the question .

because I believe there was a campaign promise about like parny ross for example but not just that there are a number of other campaign promises that trump basically made IT right went to the bitcoin conference and said all sort of h things right, including like um by the coin he's .

said he's going to make amErica the cyp to capable the world and in the bitcoin like center of the universe OK okay.

so he's written some trackers in the campaign as all politicians do. And now the big question I think um we have to ask is which of those checks is he going to cash? Because to a comment earlier, of course, all of these things require some amount of political capital.

Now there's a clear Mandate, I think, and like he have a lot of the ability, so I have horns of political capital. Will he keep these campaign promises? Which of them do you think he will keep? Which of them one? What's his track record of keeping campaign promises?

Um it's it's okay. Um his track record, I think between the sixteen election in his first presidency. Um he he also and I think people know this, obviously we've all been watching Donald trump now for years. He likes to stake out really firm positions as an negotiating tactic in general, whether it's on terriers.

A great example, right, can add all these tariff s mother the same exact issues on the table in one thousand and ninety two, when grover cleveland was became the first present to win a second on consecutive term immigration tariffs s hard money. There's a big silver thing back then. And and similarly, like the the american manufacturing base would benefit, I think, from foreign export import tariff s right.

But you know that could cause a lot of inflation. Like there's there's issues with this. I think he's made he in his surgeons are made very clear like that these are negotiating sites he takes out. I think you'll see that similarly on on other issues.

So it's not so much that he he on some of these issues won't deliver, but that you know coming out strong and then you know trying to be smarter is is what I saw some on some of these issues. Last one, immigration too. I mean, rightly so.

Like there's a very contentious election with some serious issues right outside of and you know people like what's going to port twelve million people. I mean, they've already started saying like we're going na started looking at like the one hundred and thousand or so like known criminal aliens that like the biden administration says our criminals, right? Like so I think you're going to start to see like come in a little bit and get a little bit more tactical take on crypto.

Um I think something like a free reos is very easy. This guy has served more than ten years in jail already. He's not going to be part and he'll probably be offered clemency, right, which will, given his sentence, will be commuted so he'll get time served. I like IT will come off of his record, right, most likely because he doesn't have to in. By the way, i'm sure ross is fine with that here.

He at the other day is because the slogan .

is free ross day on IT. I mean, he has said hl parton, ross, all right. But I think that's mostly because americans don't broadly know the different.

I'm learning the difference right now. Yeah in commutation, I think he's going to do that. He said. It's so many times, he said, IT at the net.

Remember you went to the national liberal italian party y's conference and pitch them, which I thought was a very fascinating speech and he said, IT there and that was what the libertarians clapped for and. Screen for. I think that happens.

I think the national bitcoin stockpile is something will happen. I think it's not likely. This is the almost direct parallel to this other election I keep talking about.

He's the only president ever to win, then lose his reelection and then win again. He's the second president ever growly than that was the first and and grover cleveland venta min Harrison, the president. Between its kind of the same in reverse, there is this huge question about whether to back the dollar with gold or gold and silver.

And both were legal tender, but on the dollar was only back by gold. And in the value of silver was fixed in a legal ratio, two gold, right? So the market value could fluctuate IT. But I was always traded and redeemable at this legal fixed ratio.

So when silver traded below its legal fixed ratio, everyone would try to pay for everything in silver because it's greshams law, right? You're basically getting relief like so you could pay your taxes in the silver. So when I was actually trading below its redeemer value, everyone to pay their taxes and silver, and the government would be a huge inflow of silver.

But then foreign creditors all wanted gold to repay the debt, so then a huge outflow of gold. So then there was a massive issue of how to back the dollar. And Benjamin in Harrison, who was in between, he passed the thing, the sherman silver purchase act, which was directing the government to buy a bunch of so it's not unlike the national Victorin stockpile, right? So I think he'll do something.

I think he's also very vocally been the only dollar candidate, right? He's been saying we want a strong dollar. The dollars going to be huge.

I think if you were to buy like tooth picks to back the dollar, IT would harm the value of the dollar. Doesn't matter what IT is. The second, I mean via currency is, is the confidence game, right? I think it's back by nothing but faith and credit.

I mean, he could just stop selling bitcoin because that's a policy at the U. S. Has two thousand plus.

That's what propose has been a was that he said never sell your bitcoin. Everyone knows this. So we should stop the government selling that. That is much more palatable, I think, than directing after buy.

Yes.

I think I mean, he may they may buy I think the government should buy IT, but it's they've gotto be very careful to buy IT. For the telegraph.

the remember sagon us as.

yeah if you buy IT to back the dollar than people, the dollar is going to plum IT and no one wants that like, you know you may it's gonna happen venture alpbach currencies do collapse, but there's no need to accelerate that unnecessarily. So I think you'll get something on that.

I think um I mean, again, on all of the executive agency stuff, I think he's likely to deliver whether we get any we may never get any um like progressive legislative package, past market structures, stable coins. So you may end up just with a situation where you have regular ory relief, but no nuclear framework. In fact, we we are I think our baseline hypothesis is that the more unified to the branches of government, like let's say, republicans take the house also, and I ve got all three branches are republican, very unlikely. I think that you see something move on crypto in the .

first two years because we really like I thought this like part part of Victors like statement is um um like .

regular doesn't say market structure. I think stable coins has a lot less hdl here.

Everything everything .

you're giant giant.

And not sure if IT is more .

like these are great deal making bills, right? Like where there's a lot of bipartisan. I think if you get a if you had a Harris wave across all both houses, uh, in congress and the White house or trump wave cross post is in the White house, they're gonna focus on like high priority dollar spending stuff.

They're going to they're going to try budget reconciliation to big giant tax cuts. These things take a long time to move through congress, right? I think there's more air in the room and space to do something that's a little further refight ld like crypto, if you can't do those big things.

Now you're looking for bipartisan stuff. So the irony is you're gonna a get relief. I don't know. We're going to get a framework and like out of, uh, unified republican government is possible. Certainly, I think I don't I can't speak for Victor.

But when IT comes to stable coins versus market structure rate, he doesn't save IT twenty one here to me. I think the daylight between republicans and democrats on stable coin sis is much less than on market structure, right? Pretty much the only dispute that we're aware of out of house financial services between magazine waters and Patrick mckenney has been about which banks can do IT in which energy, right?

Like the the democrats wanted only national banks that the fed directly regulate tes and the republicans want a state pathway, right? So to me, far and perhaps even non bank entities, right? Like why couldn't walmart issue is stable going out to know? But republic like that, the dispute I think on like what they hold in order to back IT and like what disclosures have to be made and Frankly, even like what regulators would oversee IT, like that table stakes, there's a lot of agreement there.

So I think and then by the way, if you threw in, you know, Howard ltc, the head of the transition team, has all of tethers treasury collateral. Al, if he's going to be important like there there are also dollar strength reasons to do stable coins. So I think that's more likely than in a republican government than fit twenty one.

Um so yeah, it's kind of a paradox. I think they're just going they're going going to do immigration and taxes and who knows what else but but crypto. And that you can imagine that if trump delivers on regulatory relief on these issues of the agencies that they say, look, guys, like now we're going to work another stuff for a little bit like you got a lot of what you want IT. I think in in, in a divided congress with a trump presidency, you are very likely to see a good deal struck on this because IT doesn't, by the way, we want IT to be a deal you don't want.

Some unanimous lasted .

for decades because IT was by partisan, right? Like you don't want, you want, we want crypto u whatever comes out of congress to be by partition, whether not its unified government or not. Like IT should be by partisan, you don't want to ramp through.

It's can be hard to the cyp du industry this, right? But we don't want to RAM through something this like unequivocally boat like too easy for us, too bullish for for cypher. I like you wanted to have longevity.

I if I want to get your take on the impact of this election on silicon valley, uh, notably, the country valley has moved far more right than IT has previously. Previously, I was growing up in the in early thousands into the twenty tens. Silent value was known as liberal, IT was known as blue.

And that was not the case this election. Notably, mark in rison and behalves put out this very, very pro truck podcast about why they are supporting Donald trump, which was just a very big move to come out of silicon valley. Elon musk putting all of his marbles on, on, on trump.

Uh, there were tweet. H, I thought this tweet this morning was pretty unna from package m home work. He says, insane.

How lucky elon keeping getting, which is physician his tag cheek. He's like, no, elon. Elon makes his own luck. Uh, and now elon is like, very, very tied to this trump presidency.

Uh health now owns twitter and is landing rockets and catching them with with dropsy ks, ah and this guy has like the era of Donald trump. O is now on the election. What would you say is the impact upon silicon valley in the tech sector?

Yeah this is a really interesting one, honestly because like um you know you're seeing some winners and losers and in the tech stocks um and I think you know you mentioned, David, when you were growing up that silicon valley was liberal. I also recall that wall street was conservative in republican, but most of the big banks and big bank employees are big democratic donors today. And it's kind of flipped.

I think look yeah I think look, jd vans I think is really instructive here, right? He worked for Peter teo. Um he is what I would describe as a almost a classic techno optimist.

Um I think you're going to see um a much bigger focus on innovation and and maybe relaxing of some of the um anti trade stuff that sort of prevents the growth of some of these companies and venture exits, for example. right. And we even had I don't have the data front of me, but the the public IPO market has been just lackluster right under this last administration.

You're probably going to see a lot more companies go public that gives the exits to the VC that can keep the machine moving. So I think it's going to be very positive for american tech. I think you're going to see um A I is going to be really interesting what happens with A I because europe is classically taking this over regulation standpoint.

AmErica looked poys to maybe do the same. I'm A I safety council and all the stuff. I mean, again, I don't want to be ruled by robots either.

I wanted to be safe. But like, you know that sort of an really an AI safety council, you knows what that means. Sound like a lot of regulation probably going to get some relief there.

Um so I I think it's gonna pretty positive for tech overall for american tech. I think you saw basically every major tech leader hedging at least, right? I mean, the sucker bird called trump after the assassination publicly praised his bravery and wrote a letter to congress saying that we were pressured to sensor during covet.

I mean, bend horrow. It's too, David. I imagine the podcast, but he sort of like pivoted more recently, three, four months out and said, hey, i've donated to the common hairs campaign.

but bazas like decline to allow washing impose which he owns to endorse like cyndi from google trump set on the rogan podcast that google CEO had called him. So like they've obviously been sort of like at a minimum, we're hedging .

for a trump. yeah.

So I think they look they want to grow. I think the big question for me with tech like let's go to elon to with like x like and he really did go all in its incredible lie. You love that tweet from packet y because an even even I mean that I was it's stunning how how much money he put into IT how much time um I think like the social media censorship questions both parties there was a period where they both wanted censorship maybe for different reasons are they are both mad like facebook either for sensorily like anti COVID lockdown speech or for. Censoring Donald trump content, right?

Both were or for censoring like alternative cover, like both parties were mad about this, right? There is all this discussion about section to thirty and if I would be repealed, which limits the liability of those platforms legally. I think now you you're looking at some kind of reworking and rethinking among the tech firms about how they do on content moderation. Again, again, total divergence from europe on this total divergence .

as as we start to draw this to, uh, a close, alex. So one question I have for you as a 呃， E, D, S, so gar cancelled out of the way, right? IT took so much work to just get two freaking etf out of this guy.

And S, E, C, now, gar, gangsters going to be gone. Do etf a magically start happening? Do we get tms like each stake etf?

Do we get like kind of the long tail of other A E tf as well? The flood gates just open there. Is that still a process?

Yeah, it's definitely a process. I think it's tRicky. I mean, I think there's a lot of work to be done. I think you need some movement and whether it's no action letters or a new framework imposed or legislated at the c on tokens.

And are these securities and that those questions before you start to see the flood gates like, I mean, they there's literally just even if they let say IT, if they could just waive a magic wand, they'd still have to waive some of the underlying magic ones first. So like there's some time, I think IT takes. But you know if if you ask me four years from now, like whether we have only have two crypto assets with ets or if we have twenty, like i'd be leaning towards to twenty at that point.

So there's a lot to be done. But if you ask me to bat, i'd say we're likely to get more. This is a and you taking way to just to answer that the like there are some procedural stuff, right?

People talk about whether know that the thresh holds with which etps can lend the underlying class at all. Maybe that's a comp that should be looked bad for staking, I think, right? The main one of the main issues for alongst theory, me tf to stake, is whether not unsticking could happen fast enough to meet redemptions should they occur. So you could see like the right, let's say, that you have a bunch of proof stake coins that have etf. You could see the sc look literally at like exit q times like on a theme right on.

But these are all valid things.

right? Yeah, valid. I think it's on the table. I mean, I think and that's I aren't if that's the main reason why the of the etf of under performed flows wise to the becoming tf, but it's definitely one of them, right? If you're sophisticated enough, you can buy either and put in on coin base and just earn you're staking rewards.

Like why wouldn't you do that? Is that much harder than buying the tf? Well, IT is for all those old reasons about the f you know financial advisers can do that for their client, but I think that would make those products much more compelling.

And yeah, uh, let's talk about this as we draw us to close then. So the in the death of the anti crypto army is a kind of over for them here's a tweet from Justin slaughter, uh, overheard from a biden White house staffer he says, so this is rumer mail territory but this is what the biden White house staffer said no democrats are going to fight with cyp du to the death anymore. We've too many other things to worry about.

Clip cyp du clearly has more staying power than we thought. Crypto clearly has more staying power then we thought. So I was with Warren themes that came out with the kind of the anti gript army SHE a mass, some recruits, including like much of the the biden White house administrative state we call on, that dead now does you think the democrats in the wake of this loss this um I think you know obama at one point he called the loss of slacking.

They got select this election. They just got absolutely destroyed. Do you think that this causes them to call off the dogs with respective pta? So my hope and our hope all along, husband alex, that crypto crypto should not be a part of an issue.

It's silly that IT is right. And um I think there's a subset of of democrats that you can of a blame for the summer republicans too. There's a subset of people in politics you can of blame for making this a partisan issue in the first place.

But the ideal state is is not like the internet, quite like how can you be elected as apologies in the united states if you don't support technology? The economy in the internet, right? Like that just should be a non starter.

So are we back to that as the new Normal? So being anti cypher cannot win elections. And the democrats kind of regroup in the wake of this and they changed their platform. I'm sure they're have to reform a lot, a lot of introspections, hopefully for them in the wake of this. But the conclusion of that is the process pto.

Yeah, I think very, very unlikely you see high profile members of congress or elected officials take bold uh, stands against crypto IT doesn't seem like IT is a good idea again, burning marina, I think is the his Victory over shared Brown and ohio is the clear signal. I mean, this is not a backbenches senator who got out that this is a very, very prominent one and um you know you ve seen, I think a six scene E N coin base you saw like maybe yesterday, the day before I ready played to combine fifty million just to play in the mid term election.

So like this two years .

playing the long game. exactly. So I mean, I think, look, this is how politics works in america. And like, not only did the crypto industry deployed significant capital to to influence and support their candidates, but they succeeded and that speaks volumes.

Why come out of you could just say nothing, right? I mean, I we talked about this even on the show before, but I don't think there's a lot of antiChrist to voters. I mean, this maybe many americans who don't like cyp to, but they're not like that's not what's .

motivating them to to vote no I don't care what you yeah all right well um will see what happens to ask about alex this is this has been great and I think for everybody there, regardless of who you voted for right um I think anyone who's an advocate of crypto can be happy at the dismantling of gary gancy lor and the administrative state that has attacked the crypt al industry for so long and IT seems like that rain of tear is over so gotto call this uh overall a big Victory for for crypto on the back of this alex store. Thank you so much for joining us today from David.

Thank you so much around me.

Gotto let you know, of course, is not a political podcast. None of this has been political advice. It's not like buying or trading advice.

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