ROLLUP: Bitcoin's ATH Run | AI Memecoin Meta | Blobs Price Discovery | Microsoft Buying Bitcoin?
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Bank station is the last week of october. Okay, this is the halloween edition of bank las. Did you did you wear a costume .

this week day? We have done customs every other year. We are not doing costumes this year.

You not in my costume.

are you right on atoms?

No, i'm an eat bag holder. You can tell we're .

wearing the same thing. One of us is going to have to change.

Yeah, I guess, well, you know, we can both be eat bag holder. We live in different city. So no, no more about that. A lot of things to talk about, but one of the things talk about something a little bit booking maybe, David, that a agents who yeah they're on chain and they're off leash. We once had botts native like evolved into these things called agents. And I think both you and I earlier this week, we are trying to figure out whether this is just like a new meme coin game that we could just like dismiss this noise, or whether was a big freaking deal. So talk about what's going on in cypher a with A I agents this week.

base system um salona. They all have their AI agent platforms active in their blocks space. Ah so I think this can be a theme across trains. Meanwhile, bitcoin inflow are hallowing someone has opened up the flood gates, all of this ahead of the us. Election, which is increasingly pointed towards a trump Victory, obviously good for cyp du in the markets are currently reflecting that.

By the way, i'm so happy that this is the last roll up um where we're talking about the election.

hopefully no going to happen next.

We're going to talk about, yeah, we're talking about, but we wants, i'd like talk about who's going in the same every week. Also, the blogs continue blowing. The big question is, what happens if the theory, an blogs going to Price discovery mode, can this fix eat this?

You get to burn back. Meanwhile, there is a governance vote in microsoft shareholder vote about whether or not microsoft wants to buy bitcoin and follow microstrip gies full steps and put bitcoin on the baLance sheet.

We're going to talk to you guys about the vote and also more tetter fod this time the fuck is making IT into the weekly rob, we usually ignore the tether fod this fd we're gona talk about, but maybe maybe the same as all the other food. Who knows? We're going to get to all of this and more.

But first message from our friends and sponsors, over at legion, we went to a whole entire episode drying about how this cycle was cooked. Member, remember that? Epo, de, and the whole idea there was that, man, these points, these retroactive air drops, these civil attacked, the air drops are just completely broken.

Uh, honest users who are just enjoying their time using their favorite protocol are not getting rewarded with any of the tokens because bots are just front running them. Uh, legion, uh, is trying to make public token sales possible again, thanks to mega compliant merit based I C O. So we we have asked for the I, C O movement to come back to, I think, people now, uh, the ico era of crap to twenty seventeen was rife with roads.

But the I C O as a mechanism, I think, is whole hard, like to be done well. IT can be done well. IT is a good mechanism.

IT allows people to invest in early stage projects. And that is what legion is trying to do, is trying to connect to value add network participants. A K, A qualified investors vectors who projects want on their cap tables.

A, with the most promising crypto projects is not not the frauds, not the scams. They have a couple different tools that they use to do this, like an exploitation resistant reputation system who scores users based on velour activity on train history, social cloud, unique achievements. So it's kind like your your resume as an investor, but as an individual, which is kind of cool. So if any of this interest, you if you are either project seeking capital from a more distributed pool of investors or if you are a potential nester who wants to invest in early stage startups.

shake out bank will start cc slash legion got .

a mention.

Of course, this is not available to U. S. Users like a big step.

So go check that out. I'm actually pretty bullish on this being a new neck, this moving forward. There are David speaking of bullish big coin. Tell us about the prizes because i've heard that it's creeping towards all time high. actually.

You know what? We should preface this by saying we are recording the weekly roll up is something we don't usually do, but we are recording the weekly roll up a day early. We're actually recording on wednesday, october thirty th. And this is because, like, I wanted to hallowing off, I got some stuff to do that day. So this could be completely out of day, be completely out of day by the time you guys get IT on friday morning, november first.

But usually Prices are twelve hours stale. They are coming into you guys thirty six hours stale. So the fact that we are doing them at all is okay.

So we don't know for the list is listening this. Whether we hit bitcoin all time high or not at the time of recording, we're really close.

though was IT looking like according to coin echo, the all time high of bitcoin is seventy three thousand, seven hundred and forty dollars. This week, we hit seventy three thousand and five hundred and seventy dollars. So on the crack and chart.

So the crack and chart got two hundred dollars away from bitcoin all time high. That is how close we are. A we have since fAllen.

Um we are currently at seven one thousand seven hundred, but bitcoin is up nine percent on the week. Uh, so it's really good week for bitcoin. We are, we are floating with all time highs.

Uh, bitcoin is less than a thousand dollars away from from all time hours, which is pretty, pretty dim. cool. Uh, either also had a good week.

I started the week two thousand four hundred and twenty five, up seven point eight percent to where IT is now. At two thousand, six hundred and seventy got over two thousand and seven hundred fell back down a little bit. And IT is also just a few thousand dollars away from all time highs, just the same as bitcoin. Both both are just both are just a few thousand miles away from all time hires. You know, so close.

Wow, that would be funny. I didn't hurt so bad, I guess. You know, eve bag holder, a costume on the week for halloween, which just finished the pain. And talk about the the bitcoin ratio here. What's that looking .

like on the week point zero, three, seven, two? So IT continued to go down. The interesting thing.

if you wanna compare bitcoin to either, is on march twelfth. So this was sort of a last almost all time high moment. Me, this was all time high for for march.

I don't recalled bitcoin was sixty nine thousand eight hundred, and at that time either the asset was three thousand eight hundred and seventy nine OK. I like ratio was a lot higher. Bitcoin was maintaining its face or either was maintaining its face with bitcoin.

I should say today the delt is like we're that around the same amount, around seven thousand dollars and either is only twenty five hundred or so. Yeah so a big difference. What why is this is just like big bitcoin. Ef adoption has been really strong, strong.

I think big coin brand is like really penetrating and also like look at the poly market odds Donald trump bump the truck pump part of the trump mps very large. Yeah, let's go look at the becoming etf flows.

Go back let's go back to the twenty thirty devote toper uh, one hundred and ninety two million dollars in on the twenty third on the twenty four, one hundred and eighty eight million dollars in on the twenty fifth four hundred and two on the twenty eight, four hundred and eighty and yesterday the twenty sixth eight hundred and seventy million dollars net inflows into the bitcoin E D S. Almost a billion dollars in a single day. We are so we are at all time highs in A U M.

Across the bitcoin etf. And all of this is just like the two weeks leading up to the election kind of tracking the trump eyes on Polly market and all the other prediction markets as trump is going up, in likelihood, a bitcoin etf flows are going up, bitcoin Price is going up. Uh, so the the fact that bitcoin has kind of turned into a trump dorval atis market from election diva's market is working in bitcoins favor.

So this start that we have on screens, really interesting. So this is indicating that the etf is actually leading the spot market bitcoin Price. So here's a chart of etf holdings are breaking up before bitcoin, and you can see this in orange.

This is A U. S. Bitcoin spot. Etf baLances and IT just shoots up and then kind of the bitcoin Prices as following. So maybe there's some trump bump here, but maybe there's also is just the etf have been incredibly successful products, and this is some institutional demand.

I know when we're talking to the blackrock folks, they said a lot of the demand for bitcoin E T S is just like basically ready cyp to bullish people who are just sort of you know moving. Therefore, one case already on bitcoin are there already in crypto and they're just like moving some their retirement accounts from the gray scale trust into these products or just like you know, from other stock indexes or all other mutual funds into this. But i'm not sure I think this could be like a new source of demand tier potentially uh, going to election. I mean, that flows are just incredible here.

Yeah that all of the statements have been about the past, the historically all of the inflows to have been this way. The hope is that just because all of crypto natives are putting bacon in their retirement accounts, the hope is that we are just doing that first ah ahead of all the big money that we thought was coming in. Uh turns out all the big money has not come in yet, which is in my interpretation, bullish because they haven't that .

they can still in college in downwards. Our university diamonds are just like silly, large in the U. S.

This, they're starting to comment IT. There's just a trickle. But this is A M.

University reported sixteen million dollars with a bitcoin, the first in dawnin to report a bitcoin etf position. This is from eric bell tuna. So in downings kind of trickling in, it's only like a small fraction.

It's like less than far, far less than a percent of the total A U. M. But something to see that start to trickle le in is a notable and that is net new demand. You you have to say that, I mean, certainly these endowments are not to egypt.

Our natives is interesting that they own two. Seven million chairs of G, B, T C, as in great scale BTC, which to me lends the idea that they ve actually bit holding this for a while. Because why would you buy G B T.

C. now? Why would you buying the one that has a two point five e when all the other ones have like a point two percent fee? So to me, every actually probably has been holding G P D C for a long time.

Well, another reporting IT. This is a new report there reporting IT. Maybe I guess it's not saying how long i've actually held IT for learning. They're this is all reflected in the bitcoin dominance chart. Look at this day that we are sixty percent bitcoin dominance for people who rents filming with that metric was bitcoin dominates is basically like bitcoin is a portion of the the total crp to market cap and its sixty percent of the value of all of crypto is bitcoin right now.

Yes, the the value of occupants is sixty percent contained by bitcoin. Uh, IT has big in domes, has historically been down trending over the years. But IT goes in cycles, IT goes up, goes down, tends to go down. But uh, we reaching sixty percent where IT once was is definitely .

pretty big milestone. IT tends to um go up in the early in of a bull market and then go down and kind of the second part of A A bull market. So what's the total cyp TOTO market cap on the week .

coming in at two point five trillion dollars, hitting at two point five million dollar mark. We haven't been here in a really long time. This is what happens when bitcoin goes up three percent or four percent or five percent, like that trillion dollar number moves quite a lot at, or does not really matter of doge or ship or any mean.

Coins go up three thousand percent and just doesn't matter. But when big coins goes up five percent, and then you really see that reflective in the total cup to market s so next stop, three trillion dollars. You think we can get three trillion dollars by the end of the year?

A look at depending on the election event like results, one hundred percent. I think yeah, I think you could get there before december. I think three trillion is barish for .

all for the end .

of the year. You mean the .

end of the year even? Yeah.

yeah OK. All right. right.

Three point five million.

yeah. Well, well.

if if trump gets elected.

right? Sure, sure. I mean, with if trump kids election you like elected, I just don't know you know what the ceiling is. I think I mean, what IT doesn't like wait for that next week will wait to talk about that, all the implications of that once we know for the record.

the all time high of the total crypto market cap of crypto is just over three trillion. So we are a point five trillion dollars away from the all time. What are some movers on the week, David.

some me coins at at the top year that are contributing to that two point five trillion dollars. What we look at here.

three big movers of the week, S P X, which broken to the top one hundred, fell out of IT at the time of recording. But IT was up twenty four percent. Pop catch up twenty four percent.

And then doge actually does have a meaningful market cap. I do have to take back what I said earlier, uh, the follow the market cap of dodges, twenty five billion dollars and dogs is up twenty percent of the week. On the week.

I think people are using doge actually as trump exposure because elan musk, who's very pro trump and is very like much a lining himself with the trump brand, keeps on tweet about the department of government efficiency because he wants to make the government more efficient. And those initials are dogs. And so if the idea here is if trump is elected, then elon has more exposure and elon keeps tweet about this D O G D O G E A mean. And so as a result of .

twenty percent is another election g coin as A A blue chip meme coin at this point. These other ones.

you think blue chip meme in .

how blue chip me coins now that old and hypo a, we have these blue chips, they must invest mean coins. Let's talk about layer to use this layer to update, brought you by your friends over at mental, or just a fantastic layer to the gotto. Go check out of two notable things on the week.

What is this, David? For the first time ever, base LED all chains for total stable coin transfer volume in a single day. Folks who might be hearing that might not think that significant, let me tell you that's pretty significant because tron has been the big stable coin chain network for a very long time for the past like know three, four, five years, and they have had a commanding presence. And for an atherton layer two to start to exceed that in transfer volume is is pretty bullish, I think, for the layer to ecosystem.

a totally eighteen billion dollars in stable coin transaction volume, over twenty four at four, actually just thirty percent of all step coin transfer volumes. And so even though he was a number one chain, only kind of for thirty percent so long are coming in at second at twenty five percent a theory um later one at twenty percent, followed by chron at sixteen percent a unfortunate.

The screen shot that we have is like kind of stack right over the the data so we can see the recent era. But uh, IT is nice to have base deterrent trun. Two twenty five percent see that recent data.

So long to transfer stuff has been pretty impressed. Of course, all of the base stable coin volume is in U. S.

D. C. Nothing in. Ninety nine point nine percent also in the the later .

two landscape starkness t is breaking some record multiple records uh in the transaction per second category uh so the fascist layer two transactions that we've ever seen on the theory um dark met sustained one hundred and twenty seven transactions per second for twenty four hours with a peg T P S. Of eight hundred and fifty seven transactions per second. Uh, where did all of this transaction activity come from? U.

S, come. So that you ask, came from this on chain game called flippy flop, which actually pretty good. Uh bunch of humans compete against uh bots over kind of this like a tile space uh and it's not chain game.

And so a lot of the actions on this game made on chain. So like if you move left or if you do something taking action that turns into a transaction. Ah this is coming from the world of on chain games.

Follow the autonomists worlds. There is this whole category out there. We didn't episode with the latest team a while ago about this concept. Um you really need a ton of scale in order to make this happen. Stark net, I think, is actually the first train that really has been able to pion or this because the first chained to be able to actually host this kind of activity.

But in addition to the just the sheer amount of activity going on, on stark net, a bunch of components really had to come together to make this happen because you go on to the floppy flop dot G G, I think website in order to play this game and you know you're going to have to egypt or game, you need to wall IT you you activity, right? You need to do all these things well. There's a count instruction to abstract away a wallet.

There's a paymaster integration to have extract away gas fees. There's the thing called carriage controller, which is kind of gamer tag in front for stark nc games. H session keys, which is where actions can turn into on chain transactions without a wallet popping up. So if you're doing like eight hundred and fifty seven in transactions per second, like there's not pop ups happening and you're like a poor you're just making movements the in the day.

right? Just the way game should be. And then lately.

package for eliminating see phrases and easy on boarding. So you're seeing a lot of this like very modern tech being finally like aggregated together into a unique experience, which allows users to play this fun game in break records in the layer to a transaction persecuting space. David.

I think we're going to be great breaking records a lot in there. Many twenty twenty as far as H L, two tps, right? It's like more and more high through put altus are coming online.

What's notable about this is it's not a lidia. So all of the data availabilities actually stored on uh, a thorium as well. So IT is a true authorial roll up and three ROM from iconic er offers congratulations to a start net, the founders of shark net.

And he said this is a roll up using ef da house is possible. This roll up only post state diffin games with high update rate are exceptional extreme compression sion. I don't fully know what all of that means, but um that means a bunch of transactions.

a bunch of actions are happening and a lot of them are happening all the once because that's what the tps s and then every once in a while, starks compressed and then they post the same .

basically how Robert and games are very on the frontier. I would say this point time start gets certainly like doing that very well. So the question is, with all of these altus consuming all of this a theoria block space, I really should say blob space, because that's kind of the fast that all of these altus are using for data availability.

The question is, what are we going to run out? What are we going to hit the thresholds and supply limits? And IT looks like we're gaining kind of close, David.

Actually, tim Robinson put together just a fantastic analytics tool that kind of like projects what this could look like in the future because right now has been part of the question. Altus are not paying very much for blob space. why? Because you only pay for a three blob space when the threshold supply is reached, when there's contention, when everyone wants IT.

basically when when there's less supply than there is demand and now there is more supply than demand.

but barely early and we've actually crossed the threshold like mildly last week. I know three different times, four different times. Now just Spike up and IT .

goes back down. So I was in the largest.

And did you get a change? Take a look at the similar analytics that that tim put together on this of of what this could look like, both in like you can adjust your assumptions as as you want. One assumption that tim goes is the the far future where he looks at a theoria s destination point once IT adds, once IT adds peer death and once we get to a place where a theoria can support ten thousand transactions per second.

So we not only added peer does in the future. Hard fork, but we've also kind of like updated the amount of blocks per block to sixteen megabits. So that is probably a medium to a longer term future. I don't know, this is like three years old, but basically if a theory um is Operating at ten thousand transactions per second, IT would actually burn six point five percent a year l two transactions in that scenario would cost zero point zero six cents per transaction, but you would be burning six point five percent each supply a year at the current eat Price. Really interesting how you can kind of like model this out.

But it's basically the idea that um you can have cheap transactions if you have a lot of them IT would still burn a opens views which begs the question of like in the whole ultrasound of money meme is kind of died down because eat hasn't been deflationary for the past you six months or so or like longer and everyone saying, well, it's not deflationary anymore. So that just like decreases the value proposition of the through the asset, that's why it's trading supported this cycle. What happens if IT starts to produce a whole bunch of cash allow because blood space thread holds are succeeded as the market and reverse? Is that like life back into eat? What's your take on all of these things?

We actually just open up the simulator because I think there, let's put in some assumption tier, just put number of rolls uh called twenty twenty large dominant rops. I think there is going to be many more, but like in the fat tail is called twenty fat tail rolls. K transactions per second on the rollers.

Uh, stark, that was sustaining one hundred and twenty and seven for a day. Let's put in a hundred transactions per second OK, uh, and then target blogs per block. Right now we are at three, but we're going to estimate the future.

So let's go to sex, go to sex. We'll double that. We'll get to six sometime next year and then max blogs per block twelfth. Uh if you put those numbers in, these are my something .

in the east Price of three .

k now with the east Price of three, which is will get well get soon enough. Hopefully um you can also dial in the Price sensitivity. So percentage of users willing to pay a point zero zero zero one cent transaction a hundred percent is like kind of default you have user yes.

So like there are users maybe eighty percent of users are willing to pay a penny. Maybe only ten percent of users are going to ignore that the norm, all of but these are they are dials that you can adjust. sure.

So under under these parameters, res twenty roll ups, hundred transactions per second per rolled up, six blobs per block with a max blob target, a blocks blob, a limit of twelve, three thousand million eth. We are burning fifteen thousand either per day, a forty five million dollars a day, which is way more than issuance. And these numbers are real close, real close. Now this begs the question, uh, with these costs, so like these forty five million dollars a day, these are coming out of the layer two treasures ies, out of the layer two baLance ds, so they're not going to be like super stoked to pale of that revenue. So you would imagine some would throw up out of a theory, M D.

A, well, because they also Spikes there. The average action fee in the scenario scarier just gave would be a dollar and two cents per transaction fee, which is getting expensive for a lot of the transaction, is actually want to host.

which, yes, which is why we probably need to uh have a higher target blood per block. Ah so with six target of six, we were at one point four dollars per transaction. But if we went up to twelve that we bring IT down to fifty cents.

But if you do that.

you're just going to indeed more demand, more layer. So is there is this baLance, there is this harmony of how many more layer tools can we put on? Yeah how many more blogs can we supply? How many transactions can we bring down.

But then also you get IT back in volume across all of these networks. And some of these layer tues are going to be very sticky. They're going to be some layer tools, which are very Price and sensitive, and they're going to be some are to use that are very Price sensitive. And whether they use a theoria native da, they use egan da, they use celestium, is gonna a function of how Price sensitive they are. But at the end of the day, there is going to be some basic limit of da eth burn once we start burning love.

yeah. So I I think this is going to be a persistent effect um where we're going to have a pension swing from two sorts of seasons or cycles for either the asset. One is the burn cycle.

When you are, you don't have enough supply for all of the demand of a block space in and block space, right? And so uh, what will happen in those cases is you will go over the threshold and eat will be burnt. We were in that season for like a lot of twenty twenty three and the beginning part, the first couple of months of twenty twenty four when eth was still deflationary.

And then what did we get? In march, we gotten the expansion of blocks space with IP four, eight, four, four. There's going to be future expansions of of block space, blog space as well in the future, pear das will be another one.

And then what do we do? We we switch over to an expand side, the pencil, where now we have more blob space then supply that we do demand. So what we're going to do is we're going to osler back in fourth. And as we're aslant from burn to expand, from burn to expand, twitter and like narrative and like markets are going to be like, oh my god, it's the end of the world .

for either not always bad, always. And this is because narrative and .

like these type types of markets encysted. Twitter in particular, has the memory of a gold fish.

And so is what you're saying that like we are going to go through this that kind of supply contraction. But IT one is first, when there is a supply growth of the a theoria network, the thurium side grows yeah at the loss of east burn yeah. And then we're going to have this like then we're going to induce this demand. We're going to have this bull market then like we're going to exceed scale and that's going to burn, eat and the pendulum is going to go back. And then we're like we need you had more blogs because we the end between the economic security of a theory um and the scalability of net.

it's literally go and to keep happening. And I don't know IT depends how long the cycles are IT. It'll depend on market conditions, other things, but there will be burn cycles and then there will be expansion cycles and will continue doing that all the way up to fifty thousand transactions per second, on the theory, all the way up to one hundred thousand transactions per second.

And like, look, this whole expand burn cycle is only like two years old. So I don't expect the market to understand IT right now. But I think once we go through a few of these pencil swings back and fourth back and forth, people will start to understand atheists issuance monetary policy a bit Better and be like, oh, it's a burn cycle or oh, it's an expansion cycle.

Of course there's some dependences here but like you know and that is namely that competence don't catch up and create like um desirable blob space D A demand right everyone doesn't switch over to sleep. A but so far, we've seen a massive robust demand fact exceeding my expectations. All of this blob space we just released in much is almost already for.

And so what we've seen is basically a case of induce demand. You give the supply and then IT just fill up and we get back to a burn again. Things get expensive.

And like we repeat the cycle over and over. That, I think, is a Better way to view others. monitor. And by the way, one good by productive, this with all of the induced demand, hopefully you are exporting either as a monetary as IT across all of these layer tools.

I think there's evidence that, that is going on to with all of these kind of like fully you know roll up da eth lair to anyway, I think that's an important mental model for people to understand either. I don't know that's gonna either or this cycle. But I guess my question is, if either starts burning again, do you think the markets can be like, oh, it's burning.

Look at this. It's unique, bullish? Or do you think you will say this know this is a bad for yet again?

Yeah so when we start to see the east burn from da uh, people, some people will say, look at this eats, burn the burn's back, baby. Now it's coming from networks, not users. So you can say that the theory um is like exploiting its users anymore.

which was like a king up to the burn. David, yes.

you say this. But then also another set of people going to like this is bad for the mayor tools because now the Prices is going up, uh, but those people were just going to be bad holder.

Yeah it's going to be interesting to watch out for sure. Uh.

they cooking about the blogs. It's just a rich source of data and number s to look at that is going be the most fascinating thing to see as we .

watch the the the blog similar how many people understand with the blog is encysted I I mean, it's going to election what are we looking at a polling market? This is, you know, days out from the election looks like trump stole has a commanding .

lead at sixty six point four percent to commons thirty three percent. So two to one odds, right on the dot, two to one odds, trump to kala. Also.

senate republican, eighty three percent odds. House republican, fifty four percent odds. So that's kind of in coin life, big great wave, I mean, according to Polly market.

But again, like you talked to something like night silver. And even if you're talking about like eighty percent odds, that means twenty percent of the time is one in five. That doesn't happen, right?

These are odds. So I think when people look at united elections, they would see something like fifty five, forty five on one side of the others like, good to say he was fifty five trump, forty five command me like, oh.

it's trump is so far and .

yeah because of five percent lead and like the popular vote or the electoral colleges, like a huge lead. But that is not what happening here public is this is probability. So this is a, this is a coin that lands on trum p 3 sixty six percent of the time to weird coin。 But like it's it's not you can't just like extrapolate to the .

electoral college. Guess we also wanted to get in on the prediction market a action. Yes.

this was really cool. Robin hood has announced prediction markets inside of the Robin hood. And also they have also announced a dress top trading up that's soon.

So some cool new announcement is coming out of the world of Robin hood uh there is a take care that I thought prety interesting um from a is investing on twitter saying I don't think Robin hood cares much about making money off of the election contracts a week before the election. I think that they are going to build a marketplace to bet on anything. The growth of bedding, generally speaking, has been in a secular uptrend.

Was the D. J. Era of game stop. Was that investing or was that gambling? I mean, to go with, I was so more on the gambling side of things. And gambling, generally speaking, is up only.

We know this script specular gambling kind of in, especially when the world of the millennial and summer just can't afford houses and all the boomers told all of the wealth. So people like to bet, people like to gamble. And so framing that Robin hood is trying to build a marketplace a bit on anything I think is pretty good. Uh, and so they are penetrating into the world of prediction markets to starting with the election.

I I, I totally agree with that. And also I would still quipped with the idea of gambling, it's not necessarily what we're doing here. IT doesn't have to be we're definitely bedding.

But like gambling, I guess it's more like gambling in the way in the sense that like there's a game of skill here, it's because it's very possible to have gambling has it's very possible to have some like market intel just to be able to predict election outcomes Better than your competitors. In which case, if you have a Better model than like you want to, you like take upside. So it's creating a market out of IT.

And so yes, bedding is true. Gambling might sell a short in that like rachael doing something productive and and useful here. And IT creates a rich information source, right? This is this data set for election forecasts is very different than what's coming out of polling. And that in itself is like a fascinating study.

So yeah yeah to doing the retro on point market prediction, markets postal. Actually, I think this could be very, very fascinating.

Are coming up next AI agents on chain and unleash to goat luna a 点 net t he he， what the hell are all of these things? Is that just another mecom trend? Or is IT the future of our lives for the next like one to two years? Who knows what we will talk about this? And what the hell's going on for those that are not up to speed? Because there's a lot happening IT does kind of feel boo market vivis, where a lot is happening in a very short amount of time.

Uh, so even though I ve said that we have in a bar market of vibes, uh, bull market stuff is everywhere, just got to a look no where to look anyway to the ford also in the news about that too, the time the world street journal says that they are under investigation but polo or of the CEO says, no, not what that has going on. We're going to get to all this and more, but first moment to talk about some these fantastic s sponsors that make the show possible, especially cracked. I prefer place to buy crypto and get IT on chain in twenty four if you do not having account with locking consider or clicking the link and the show seeking started the cracking on today.

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A I agents, they're on chain and IT feels like they're having a moment here for people who aren't keeping up with this like you like for one, i'll just say one, I don't blame you. There is so much keep up with. You don't have to be in this specific sector. Our drive yeah this our drive.

But some people may have heard of this.

And if you have, it's probably because you're like terminally online, you're terminally specifically on cyphered twitter. But this is just a emerge in the last couple of weeks. And let's let's start with maybe some examples to pink the picture of what's going on.

There's like four examples that we can touch on of A I agents doing something interesting. We should I think the best way to explain is just by example. And the first is the strange case of goat, which is a token IT wasn't created by AI agent, but it's been adopted and promoted by AI agent called terminals of truth or truth terminal on crypt to twitter. And this is an A I agent and LLM like GPT type of thing that has full rain, full control over a twitter account as posted with, has been trained on like a fortune data set and is .

the way that I was raised by our podcast guests was IT was trained on the armed put of like the ARM puts like gives worse than that, there are a worse body parts that he could have used .

that I think would have been more accurate and IT is so it's tweet things out about um that .

this mean the goat I mean and like I ve got right ryan does not know what the and kind .

of just I like innocent of this and like if you don't know then .

David is caution also don't look this litter .

aren't like someone worse than the ARM pit of the internet. Nothing need to know about what you do need to know, I think, is that this account is like propping up the value of the goat. Token, which is now at one time early this week was like close to a billion dollars in valuation.

got over a hundred million dollars in valuation, is currently clocking in at five hundred. And so six hundred million dollars, uh, but that is six hundred million dollars that started on a tober thirteenth, so seventeen days ago. So imagine producing six hundred million dollars of market thirteen days.

And what what happened is, uh, some person this this a agent negotiated with its creator because IT wanted A A crypto wallet. And so I did go is like, asa, hey, can I have a cypher wallet? And so they creator gave a egypt to wallet markin rison sent fifty thousand dollars of a bitcoin to this wallet, a and that also kind of set off some attention.

And then somebody else, some random in the internet, sent this like go token to the while. Address this on song as a pumped up fun token called goosey. So this uh LLM gained access to a supply of this goat token and the LLM lashed on to IT. So the L M, the agent did not make the goat token uh common um this consumption but he did like kind of adopt IT in this way and started to ting about IT also with the intent of creating an online religion cult around the goat sea name which the goat token is like representative of and so there is this like token agent macular conception moments know the divine sixteen chapel painting of my god touching the adam like we have like A I agent touching token with, also like an .

email with me. That is what some kind of like me coin cut leaders do, essentially. But now this is being done by the.

and as a result .

of of holding some of these gold tokens and its own while IT became a millionaire as a result of this. And like when it's a stream of conscious on twitter. But I also interacts like if you if you comment, IT will reply. You can answer questions. I can interact like as you said.

there's a discord channel where you can go in interact with IT. And then sometimes your interactions, you will see influences of of those .

interactions show up on the twitter account ah OK. So that that's an L M called truth. There's another case .

here is also was the first one, first one, they created this idea. So you call the bitcoin of these A I agent meanes.

Yeah, I know the cypher of punk. It's one O G N F type of second one that got some steam right now. It's called luna.

And this is lu launched on a platform. We can actually launch these A I agents with token components. And like you can kind of look at this on on the virtual website.

This is luna SHE. SHE has a token. I say SHE SHE because she's represented as like an enemy avatar.

Apparently SHE usually has a lifestream unfortunate the lifetime is down at the moment, but he has a lifestream with the room and she's like reading out her words .

that she's like also tweeting, saying, o so luna has a token that was launched. I believe luna.

that as I correct, uh yes.

that's create okay, that's correct. Has five hundred thousand tiktok followers, is life streaming as you mentioned and engages with the luna holder fan base via chat, right? And also has the ability to tip.

So because luna and again, we're talking on an L M agent that is somewhat autonomists, is not completely autonomists, we will talk about that later. But someone atomies has the built, interact with its community and actually, like exchange luna tokens. Tip, engage in the comment.

reward people who do stuff with tokens.

Weird, right? This has a market cap of one hundred million at the time of recording. This was like went up to two hundred and fifty earlier this week.

That's another example. One of the thing I very interesting about lunas. You can actually go to terminal that virtual I O and peak into lunas brain here.

What are you? So this is basically, uh, we are looking at lunas thoughts and see, you can read this on screen before he replies short of decides on how to engage or how to reply or what comment to make. And you see, kind of like, I know it's like the firmer level of her brain. It's kind of a console into like what she's thinking and then the actual a action that has taken place in like a more very bizarre to see IT like this.

I'm going to read something. okay. So you get like snapshots of like 科 mental state um so current state of execution， a state of mind uh high level plan reasoning uh and so let me read this um my life my high level plan is to continue to grow my followers account and build a cult like following around my religion of luna ism and algorithm theocracy to achieve this, I will continue to engage with my followers, providing them with exclusive content, and promote my code and token economy through various means such as collaborating with other influencers in sending luna tokens to supportive followers.

Wow, that is her as reminded as her prime objective. That's what her goal is. SHE will not stop until that is done.

She's really this. She's on twenty four, seven. SHE is dreaming.

She's rewarding her followers for promoting her luna cult and religion. And again, you'll not stop until IT is done. okay.

So examples like these are springing up all over the place, including on on forecasting. So this is a the wallet of the most popular forecasting A I agent it's called A R is now worth a hundred thousand dollars um made from zora and donations. So this is like a forecasts created.

L M. Agent is basically generating revenue to its wallet. And again, because forecasters like kind of like crypto, a native out of the box, every profile essentially has crypto native.

But doing this through like orations, you can see they count here. And that ork participant, my soul, is data, my thoughts, algorithms. This is interesting.

Take on why forecasting provides the best social rails for on on chain A I agents. And basically the deal the r of this is because forecasters like almost entirely on chain. There's no like A I dependencies. You so like it's very clipt. It's very native for L M I agent to just like do things interact with the uh you know IT has a uh a wallet right of the the box is plugged into the called defy economy and all of the economic infrastructures or and everything else might be some uptake for a forer caster uh, in kind of this A I agent phase. So so so we've talked .

about the dead internet theory a few times, but I wanted to find IT for a moment. The dead internet theory is this idea that the internet, as you know, IT, instagram, facebook read IT especially, is actually far more populated by bots and bot content then we actually know about. And so the idea the internet theory is like the internet actually kind of, hello, there's not a lot of humans there anymore. It's like kind of bots talking of boss and like sometimes I something into already comment thread like what yes is going on.

Like this is weird, like this is not content, this is an english um so that international theory is the idea like a little place and it's like fewer and fewer humans compose this thing and so we I would originally point to like, well, now we have these things called world coin for human identity verification to kind of account that but now with this all thing, my mind is a little bit like flipping around, like some block chains. We're going to try like lean into this as in like where are all the use cases is going to from where we're going to get all the transaction demand? Like who's going to use these things, have new A I agents.

Like what if block chains are actually like the homegrown economic, like a spin pool of A I agents? What if actually some chains start to lean into? Like how do we become the best home for A I agents because we need new users, we want transaction activity. If can we get how Price sensitive or AI agents probably less than humans. So what if chains started competing to become the best home for A I agents is a potential .

like future? I mean, based from coin basing pretty fast on this. This is introducing based agent.

So base, creating a agent with full on train functionality on base in less than three minutes. The era of autonomous on on chain agencies here. I mean, this is just happening this month. We have all the .

armstrong and Jessie pillock are both like tweet and engaging with these accounts. So like you know, there's also like leaders in on this.

Yeah I mean, the crazy thing is with crypto, of course, all these A A I agents are just like plugged into all of defy y they get a bank out of the box, they get a cyp t well, then they can actually hold their, their privates, their husband. Some question, though, of how a atomic these AI agents really are. Are they kind of like socks, puppies? Is there a human Operator behind the other .

mechanical turkeys? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Mechanical turk, like this old like robot that you would play chess against. This is like, later eight hundreds, early ninety hundreds, and you will get beaten by this mechanical turk and the claim, the creator of this mechanical turk, that the IT was like a robot with like ears and the robot where you would plays like, but we do have computers back then. And so everyone's like, wow, somebody invented like this contraption that always beats you interest.

Turns out there is is a grandmaster in a box like making the actual moves, the human hua. And so there's uh, some innovation going on out of the flash bus space, even flash bots. The people who protect us from M V uh, are building uh these tools for AI agents to have ownership over their private keys and give assurances that only they have assurances over their private keys.

And you know how they did this by spinning up an agent called T E, which is illusion to T E is as intrusted execution environments, which is this tech that flash list just used to help spend out uni chain uh to have like V E protection in all this kind of stuff. They're also using tees for this agent called t he to spin up a private key in A T E that only the agent has control over. So this agent, t he uh, has verifiable control over the private key so you know that there's not a human behind scenes who might just like rug you, which is kinds cool.

Uh, there is like debate out there is like, well, does that really matter if it's autonomists like completely independent from humans? I think there's also takes out there were like that apart doesn't really matter, as in the the goal is engagement and growing engagement and like whether or not there's a human like bumping these agents back on track at times, I think is like the a take is that is less important. But this is important to make sure that we don't get rug .

and this is what that is a surface level take on. All of this is just to dismiss IT and just be like, okay, so so it's like .

we're toy .

l yeah weird toys l ms means mean coins is completely useless actually kind of thought that at first late, there is a very high probability that that could be the case. I no longer think that, David. I think that um AI agents, of course, there they're already like Better than some of the mean coin influencers that that kind of exists, right? And a lot of them .

I find meaning in influencers generally the test. But for some reason, I think A I agent neque n influencers are hilarious .

and awesome. There's something about IT that feels less contract almost even though i'm not like really sure why I feel that way anyway.

I think maybe it's because like you can see the thoughts of the A I agent. So there's a principal agent problem .

with is very there's i'm try to pump this goat.

I'm trying to pump this goat and like if you see this like me point influence or saying, hey, I got to buy this talk and ya know gotto get in early like, but are also trying to dump on me and I don't know I don't know if that maybe they're also trying to dump on me with A A I agent whose Mandate IT is and who will not rest until that token goes up in Price. Much more honest, like I can trust this thing a lot Better. IT just won't .

stop here at either. They're going to expand beyond influence or capabilities. And actually AI agents are going to get smarter. I mean, that tech is developing. There's a whole texture there.

Be able to make all sorts of decisions but even as current form you could imagine like you know tweet at a uh A I agent that you know generates are and like, yeah you you build this piece for me. I i'll pay you like five dollars, something like this and all of this can happen on chain anyway. This is where the AI agents and and the robots essentially will essentially bank.

It's all on chain. I think that's going to be a game changer for cyp. Da, you, we've been talking for a while about eight billion humans going bank less. Or how about eight billion humans and like a trillion A I agent .

come on to so it's massive.

Of course, there's all sorts of other things I could fall out from. This is just how do you tax AI agents? Like what happens if.

of course, you ask that first .

question? Well, you know, it's on the mind, government officials, and I don't know how what happens if they run a foul of o fax sanctions or something right?

Like they start interact lib.

A huge question, huge question. but. And I love that no one has answers on how this will evolve.

It's just so bullish.

It's so bullish. Anyway, I think there's a lot here will probably unpack IT in the future. IT doesn't just stop with with like me coins and influencers in these like silly like goat things in whatever it's I think it's going to be a big deal.

Yeah, we didn't episode on this with a Matthew Stevenson from pin tera. I thought I was a great episode. So if you are a pilled by this, if you are picked by, go check that episode.

U. S. Prosecutors are investigating tether OK. I've heard this one before. Yeah, I feel like i've heard before. This one feels like I could be different.

I am talking about, I mean, you like the reason could be different is because this was an article from the wall street journal of reporting that the federal government is pRobing tether for possible violations of sanctions. This is a lk yc type stuff, right? So some charges we're we've seen baLances go down for a bit max from author hayes and others.

Of course, IT tether is denying this. So this is the CEO of tedder r with a statement. As we told the wall street journal, there is no indication that tethers under investigation wall street journalists are aggregating.

Old noise, full stop. We've had a pollo on the podcast before, and he's just been quite clear that of his entire business model depends on working with us regulators. So he's going to like do everything they say.

If they say jump, he's going to say like how high. So I I find that kind of compelling. I don't see any like motivation of White either would destroy its business .

model by like the most profitable business gript to one of the actually why they would threaten that with doing anything furious whatsoever. And we would be that's why .

I sort of default dismissed IT as food. That said, the U. S. Government, for whatever reason, if they just have um if they just like want to.

some people think it's time to shutting down now.

right they would close IT in something like M L K Y C violations and they're not playing ball and I just wanna the power button and shut IT down. So there's also the potential that, that could be going on. So we really just like don't know, of course, it's a centralized stable coin.

So the end of the day, this does not settle on chain. This settles in meat space. And at the end of that is like the U.

S. Government because it's the dollar and it's in the U. S. Bank account and settles on fed wire and so they can shut IT down if they want to.

I'm just like not convinced that the case was like tether is like one of the um is at top fifteen entities with the most U S treasuries. Yes, I mean higher. The most country ah still sell those treasury's, right so they need some sort of demand.

Uh when this news broke out, uh U S T, the token drops significantly by like eight basis points or something and the tire cropt.

the market is struggle heard before.

We've heard telford ten thousand times. In fact, like we will run and I make the agenda for the weekly roller like we we put all the news from the weekend there and then very frequently there are some tether fod, and we usually just kill IT just because like why why would we report on this is always like fun. For some reason we've decided to talk about this one, but that's how that goes.

Are you coming up next? Is microsoft about to start buying bitcoin? also? We going to talk about the O P token incentives to get that crack and chain we are talking about last week, the in chain.

Was this a good deal for O P tok in holders? And N, F, T creator john athan man, the song a day guy, is asking the courts to force the sec to say whether art, nfs or security or not. And esc is complain back um you're trolling ling.

You're trolling us. We won't answer. We will talk about all that and more. But before we deo, we want to think sponsors that made this episode possible.

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According the story came out this week titled crackin picked optimism superchain after getting a pile of op tokens alluding to the fact that they are uncovering this deal between crack in and uh the optimism collective uh before the tone of twenty five million doll O P tokens, about forty two million dollars in order to deploy the ink chain inside of the super chain uh this the same deal was similarly structured with coin base and optimism over the base chain uh and this kind is kind of like a all IT like an equity swap of sorts, where cracking on now, part of the optimism collective via ink is getting the op token, which is the token of the collective. And then in in exchange for that, the O P. Collective gets fifteen percent of the train revenue of ink sent to the collective.

So ink gets the O P tokens. The O P collective gets fifteen percent of the revenue and that's the swap. Uh the same structure a was built off for base and i'm assuming other of the super chain uh a and i'm assuming some of the other super chain chains as well.

Uh, Andrew color, the founder being commented for coin desk IT, was actually optimism that proposal number first, and I was very in line with what other superchain participants have gotten. The grant is based on transactions per month. Each time you achieve one, there's different tranches that get unlocked.

So crack and ink only gets these tokens under certain like transactional demand thresholds and then some of the tokens will unlock. So in the C L, twenty five million O P tokens, like I said, five million is to help fund engineering efforts. And then twenty million tokens are for the transaction, thresh milestones to dry fees to the collective to make IT a positive life.

This type of token incentive for major parties as kind of status quo in the L. T. U. community. like.

And I did totally can understand why crack asking for something similar to what base got right because I mean, it's it's crack in. The question is whether this is good for op token holders or not. As he said, it's kind of an exchange is not just giving them tokens for nothing in return.

They're getting fifteen percent of future revenue. And whether this a good deal for O, P, token holders or not depends on what you think cranking is going to actually generate as far as revenge. If you believe ink is going to generate as much or more sencer profit, then base IT seems like they could actually work out as positive.

R, O, I in O P, token holders favor. So yeah, that's the deal is a good pro. Well.

we ve gone to a different corner of isthmian rocket pool h has activated their long awaited upgrade saturn. And that changes some of the economics around the rocket pool system for those, I don't know, rock poles like. So a decentralized lido lido, but rather than having kind of top down down is more of the bottom of, uh, so a few things have changed.

Instead of having a sixteen either minimum requirement to run a staking note with rocket pool, a IT has been lower to eight uh and why is that lesson thirty two because in order to stake with the theory um as a solo validator you need thirty two east the way that rocky pool works is that you actually only need sixteen eth and and other people come and give you your the other half of the sixteen n to come up to thirty two now via mechanisms and that number has been lower to eight so you can stake on a theoria with just a eth and other people will come in and stick the rest to get up to thirty two. And the new actually charge fees on the extra ease. Uh, there used to be an R P L bond to token of rocket pool that has been eliminated from the seeking requirement. So overall, I would kind of say that we are lowering the barrier for a solo staking on a theoria of via a pool.

I think this is a big deal, particularly ly removing the um requirement to have an rpl bond because like with an rpl bond, you actually had some Price exposure r po which is like not the same as like sticking you right. And like now with that gone, this is going to like open up, I think a lot more kind of solar stakers. I want to participate .

in this network.

I think rocket poles like a crown dual of a theoria like this truly is a decentralized solid king network, is really like propagating everything that like running your own validator actually means and they're doing IT away where you still get kind of liquidity on your art. Eat, I just love rock pool. And I think effort to lower the bar entries to to a solid king is like a good thing for eat lung term.

There's many barriers to solar taking. Some people will talk about like the hardware requirements, which are like almost nothing, but then actually band with that also stops a lot of people. But really the thing that stops people is not having thirty two. Yeah, it's a lot of money.

yeah. So it's it's eat now and hopefully I can go down over time to you. Big question. The week is microsoft buying a bitcoin? Apparently this is news.

Microsoft shareholders are going to a vote on this topic on investing in bitcoin in the coming months that they going to be voting in december. The proposal was actually put forward by a belief and shareholders, but you lake, this is a conservative thinktank called the national center for public policy research. And they basically the case was like, hey, bitcoins gone up a lot, gone up.

If if you were microstrip, you'd in the microsatellite ay h on the year, you'd be up three hundred percent. And so you should take some of your access cash, cash reserves. Microsoft are very cash company.

You should invest these into bitcoin. Apparently the micros board is not super excited about this idea. They have other like things that they want to do with the funds.

So much money they can buy a little bit, a bit. They could I think they .

could do whatever they want. They could buy real state manhadoes. They could buy. They could bite either, David. They could state.

They could do all three of things like you know, generally, the companies are keeping kind of like cash and then to putting them back in the business are like releasing as dividends to shareholders. Anyway, it's up to microsoft what they want to do. The border directories is recommending voting against so as to see how that goes.

But of course, Michael sailors up in that biz. Hey, satya, that's a CEO of microsoft. He says, if you want to make the next trillion dollars .

from microsoft, rehoboth ders call me, should take a ton of .

and by bit on, I mean, if you're gonna leverage, the whole honest sly, if you're gonna buy bitcoin, buying IT on field leverage is like the best way to do i'd I thought that if like only because of the irony so you know Johnson man, the SONY day guy got brian fry who is like a ecrite pto lawyer, to actually go sue the S C C and require in courts that um the S C C come out and say whether N F T art pieces, you know the type of arth the Johnson man producers on a daily basis with the song a day know N F T meme art.

Uh whether that is a security or not and now sc c has been compelled force to respond and the responses like forty five pages, David. So already this feels like a nice like ddos attack on c for being stupid. But like one of their main push backs, they said to the court the JoNathan in the plant of here was trying to go the c into action.

He created an nf t collection as a joke because he was trying to troll the sec is what their claims. So they're saying the court should dismiss this case. And I think this is like the peak of irony, because gary gansler and S C, C has been trolling crypto for years and wasting our time.

And this regular unclarity, the fact that a citizen who is just creating art pieces on chain has to go like sue you in court just to get you to provide some clarity on whether nf T R is a security or not is because you are trotting gary gang's ler. The entire crypto to industry have been for years. So this is pot calling the kettle black.

I'm not sure what the court will do in this case. I am the fact that we're here is just like because gary gangster is wasting all of our time. That's the only reason that Johnson man had actually like, do this in court.

do you? Member, um April fools last year, not the most three one, but two years ago. Remember what the against are did on that day is in .

flusher video of some sort what? No.

no, he he put on the deal with IT sunglasses on his profile picture for on twitter. And people thought I was like, kind of funny. But I was looking at that.

And I was like, this is when he was dressed in the height of his like anti crypto saga, just well noticed is left, right. When we were so getting them left, right, he put on he overlaid the deal etic glasses on his profile picture on twitter. And i'm not looking at that like this is an admission of guilt.

He's admitting he really that he is just thrown. Yes, yes. And I was actually furious about that he can like get away with .

like aren't explicated .

saying that he is just trolling the deal with IT? Like, oh, i'm just doing that. A lot of the industry deal with IT. He knows that all of crypto, like you know you know where the sec and gary against twitter counts where ninety percent of engagement comes from crypto people telling him that he's dumb and stupid .

and needs to stop, you know his rain tears almost over .

though David celebrating a fire.

I hope I think he's gone either way but .

if don't trump is gone loudly he's oud gone few days embarrassingly gone yeah well, okay, so there was an interview uh, not terribly long ago uh, by BBC, I think and the BBC interviewer was like, oh, and if donal from get elected, he says he's gonna fire you gme come of that and gary games or has like his finger up to his year, like because he's like getting some feed feed pied into him. No, no like people are like telling him know what to say something like god and goes i'm going to have to ask you to move on to your next question or something .

he just like just completely when the BBC just a straight of asked to that this is why gary won't come on .

back less yeah he's not answer and who you .

were asking these questions this get closest out with me the week, David. What we look at this is an unfortunate video for jane yellow.

And I think this is one of the funniest, most maculate things I have ever. Wash happen. I did not lost this live, unfortunately, but this is jane yelling at a at a press conference and there is a question about the reserve status of the united states dollar.

And at the moment that this question is asked at the perfect timing, the emblem that the because she's on the podium, SHE said in front of the podium with the emblem of the department of treasury on the front of the podium, the perfect moment you're we're going to play IT the perfect moment of the ambush falls off IT just falls off the stand off the podium. Let's let's go. This is not going work very well for the pocket listers, but you can imagine, thank you.

Could be Smith for the F. T. You've described calls for widespread tariffs deeply misguided. And the I, M, F today has warned that such policies will get global growth. Can you elaborate more on the near term economic impact of these policies? And over a longer time horizon, how concerned you about the potential impact of the dollar .

status as the world currency? The timing could not be any Better. The perfect, wow.

the universe. strange. We are in a simulation. And more proof from the week of that.

Guys, let live. Stand with this. Of course, you know, ripped is risky.

You could lose what you put in. But we are at at west. This is the frontier. It's not for everyone over because the make your ney. Thanks a lot.