cover of episode UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade taxes and boiling frogs'

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Trade taxes and boiling frogs'

2025/1/14
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UBS On-Air: Market Moves
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我预计美国当选总统特朗普政府会采取逐步提高关税的策略，即所谓的“煮青蛙”策略。这种策略虽然表面上看起来可以减轻通货膨胀的冲击，让消费者不易察觉，但实际上风险极高。 首先，这种策略可能会掩盖通货膨胀的真实程度，让消费者对价格上涨麻木，从而为企业提高利润率提供借口，最终导致利润主导型通货膨胀。 其次，关税会通过增加生产商的投入成本和减少国内竞争来影响生产者物价指数，从而影响整体通货膨胀。虽然目前的数据可能无法立即反映出这些影响，但我预计未来生产者物价指数会有所上升。 此外，我注意到美国小型企业信心指数存在党派倾向，这可能会影响对经济数据的解读。 最后，欧洲央行方面，虽然一些官员表示目前的货币政策具有限制性，并暗示将在夏季之前降息，但“夏季”这个时间点过于宽泛，缺乏具体的执行计划。总的来说，欧洲央行的目标是在今年年底前将利率提高到2%。

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Markets have reacted to media reports suggesting that the next US administration will impose trade taxes on US consumers gradually, month by month. Remember past media reports on tariff policy have subsequently been denied over social media. This is a boiling frog approach—the price level effect is the same, but consumers may not notice so much. The risk is that repeated tariff increases would encourage repeated profit-led inflation episodes by providing a convenient cover story.