cover of episode UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Hiring and firing'

UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Hiring and firing'

2025/2/18
logo of podcast UBS On-Air: Market Moves

UBS On-Air: Market Moves

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#finance and business#economic theory#career#consumer trends#consumer spending behavior People
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Paul Donovan
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@Paul Donovan : 我观察到英国劳动力市场数据表现出乎意料的强劲,并且之前月份的数据经过修正后也显示出就业的增长。尽管雇主们不断抱怨税收增加会导致大规模失业,但实际经济数据表明,这些言论目前来看仅仅是空谈。更重要的是,就业增长和薪资上涨主要集中在中年员工群体中,这部分人群的消费能力对整体经济活动具有重要影响。我认为,虽然市场普遍预期英国央行会进一步降息,但经济中仍然存在足够的不确定性,使得未来的发展充满变数,需要密切关注。 此外,我也注意到美国联邦政府的裁员行动,但考虑到其规模相对较小,我认为这些裁员不太可能对美国的财政赤字或消费行为产生显著影响。然而,某些供应链问题确实值得我们关注,例如,如果国家公园因人手不足而无法完全开放,可能会对当地私营部门的旅游业造成不利影响,进而引发更广泛的失业担忧。

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UK labor market data was stronger than forecast, with some positive revisions to previous month’s data. Anguished corporate cries about tax increases and related projections of mass unemployment do not (so far) appear in any of the data. Employment growth seems especially strong amongst the middle-aged, who matter because they have an important degree of spending power.