The outlook has dimmed, labor gains hushed, inflation expectations have found their seats, and the stage is now set for the debut of “Powell’s First Cut”. This summer promises to be an inflection point for monetary policy and we’re offering three monetary policy scenarios, along with their respective impacts on rates, spreads, and FX. It goes without saying there are other (far less likely) outcomes we’ve omitted, although nothing is impossible in the current macro environment.
