Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss why high quality credit spreads are unlikely to widen in the near term as technicals in both Treasury and spread markets remain very supportive. However, they also highlight a few fundamental drivers of spread market weakness that could overwhelm supportive technicals and push spreads wider in the 4thquarter: the ongoing trade war, absolutely spread levels, an inverted yield curve, seasonality, risk emanating from Europe, and what is now expected to be a messy year-end episode after the July FOMC minutes drastically reduced the odds of a Fed repo facility in 2019.
