The AmplifyME Market Maker Podcast: 2025 Outlook
Market Maker
Deep Dive
What is Stephen's 2025 prediction for global M&A deal value?
Stephen predicts that global M&A deal value will exceed $4 trillion in 2025, a benchmark not hit since 2021.
Why does Stephen believe M&A deal value will rise in 2025?
Stephen cites lower interest rates, increased CEO confidence, and a more stable macroeconomic environment as key factors driving M&A activity. Additionally, there is over $2.5 trillion in global private equity dry powder and higher S&P 500 valuations, which increase purchasing power for acquisitions.
What is Piers' concern about the US debt situation in 2025?
Piers warns that the US debt situation is a ticking time bomb, with rising deficits and interest payments. The US government spent $892 billion on interest payments in 2024, and this is projected to rise to $1.26 trillion in 2025, making it unsustainable if rates remain high.
What is the S&P 500's performance in 2024, and how does Piers view its 2025 outlook?
The S&P 500 rose nearly 30% in 2024. Piers believes it will be challenging to sustain such growth in 2025, suggesting that downside risks may outweigh upside potential due to the market's narrow rally and potential macroeconomic headwinds.
What is Piers' surprise prediction for 2025?
Piers' surprise is that Netflix's stock price could benefit from the release of Squid Game Season 2 on December 26, 2024. However, he notes that Netflix's stock is already trading 50% above its 2021 high, suggesting potential missed opportunities for investors.
What is the average S&P 500 return in December over the past 45 years?
The average return for the S&P 500 in December over the past 45 years is 1.5%, with the index showing a positive return 73% of the time.
What is the average Wall Street forecast for the S&P 500 in 2025?
The average Wall Street forecast for the S&P 500 in 2025 is around 6,539, with the most bullish estimate coming from Oppenheimer at 7,100.
What is Stephen's view on the impact of AI on the S&P 500 in 2025?
Stephen believes that AI adoption could shift from infrastructure to software providers, potentially boosting revenues and earnings. However, he also notes that much of this growth might already be priced into the market, making it a mixed outlook for 2025.
What is Piers' prediction for Bitcoin in 2025?
Piers predicts that Bitcoin will finish 2025 below $6,000, suggesting a potential reversal of momentum after a strong 2024.
- M&A deal value prediction: over $4 trillion globally in 2025
- Increased demand for transactions due to lower interest rates and CEO confidence
- Abundant dry powder and cash on balance sheets
- Closing valuation gap between buyers and sellers
- Increased M&A activity expected globally, not just in the US
Shownotes Transcript