Note: below is a hypothetical future written in strong terms and does not track my actual probabilities.
Throughout 2025, a huge amount of compute is spent on producing data in verifiable tasks, such as math[1] (w/ "does it compile as a proof?" being the ground truth label) and code (w/ "does it compile and past unit tests?" being the ground truth label).
In 2026, when the next giant compute clusters w/ their GB200's are built, labs train the next larger model over 100 days, then some extra RL(H/AI)F and whatever else they've cooked up by then.
By mid-2026, we have a model that is very generally intelligent, that is superhuman in coding and math proofs.
Naively, 10x-ing research means releasing 10x the same quality amount of papers in a year; however, these new LLM's have a different skill profile, allowing different types of research and workflows.
If [...]
Outline:
(02:11) Scale Capabilities Safely
(02:40) Step 1: Hardening Defenses and More Control
(03:18) Step 2: Automate Interp
(07:43) Conclusion
The original text contained 3 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
First published:
December 21st, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SvvYCH6JrLDT8iauA/when-ai-10x-s-ai-r-and-d-what-do-we-do)
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO).
