“AI #94: Not Now, Google” by Zvi
LessWrong (30+ Karma)
Shownotes Transcript
At this point, we can confidently say that no, capabilities are not hitting a wall. Capacity density, how much you can pack into a given space, is way up and rising rapidly, and we are starting to figure out how to use it.
Not only did we get o1 and o1 pro and also Sora and other upgrades from OpenAI, we also got Gemini 1206 and then Gemini Flash 2.0 and the agent Jules (am I the only one who keeps reading this Jarvis?) and Deep Research, and Veo, and Imagen 3, and Genie 2 all from Google. Meta's Llama 3.3 dropped, claiming their 70B is now as good as the old 405B, and basically no one noticed.
This morning I saw Cursor now offers ‘agent mode.’ And hey there, Devin. And Palisade found that a little work made agents a lot more effective.
And OpenAI [...]
Outline:
(01:52) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility
(09:12) A Good Book
(12:24) Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility
(14:25) o1 Pro Versus Claude
(15:25) AGI Claimed Internally
(16:52) Ask Claude
(23:19) Huh, Upgrades
(27:24) All Access Pass
(29:03) Fun With Image Generation
(35:28) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon
(37:49) They Took Our Jobs
(42:40) Get Involved
(43:50) Introducing
(44:11) In Other AI News
(48:14) OpenlyEvil AI
(55:39) Quiet Speculations
(01:00:14) Scale That Wall
(01:03:45) The Quest for Tripwire Capability Thresholds
(01:10:11) The Quest for Sane Regulations
(01:13:52) Republican Congressman Kean Brings the Fire
(01:18:35) CERN for AI
(01:23:34) The Week in Audio
(01:24:24) Rhetorical Innovation
(01:28:08) Model Evaluations Are Lower Bounds
(01:30:49) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult
(01:35:38) I’ll Allow It
(01:38:10) Frontier AI Systems Have Surpassed the Self-Replicating Red Line
(01:42:50) People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone
(01:43:56) Key Person Who Might Be Worried About AI Killing Everyone
(01:54:18) Other People Are Not As Worried About AI Killing Everyone
(01:56:22) Not Feeling the AGI
(01:59:19) Fight For Your Right
(02:01:44) The Lighter Side
The original text contained 23 images which were described by AI.
First published: December 12th, 2024
Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HKCXWxFSiWXLByL2S/ai-94-not-now-google)
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO).
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