TWiST News: Face Robots, Solar's Growth, The Polymarket Mess, and YC's Latest Call for Startups | E2044
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If you walk inside a starbucks, right, you can have free wifi, fed free electricity. Actually too. I think that over the next twenty thirty years, as with the S M R, or reduces penetration, big news, getting bigger, I think we going to see energy Prices really go very close to zero. And I think electric vehicles in the home, we have a much worse .

this in well this weekend. Startups is brought to you by fundraising under provides access to diversified portfolios of private, real state to all investors with their industry leading easy to use plot form sign up today at furries dog comms lash twist open phone create business phone numbers for you in your team that worked through an APP on your smart phone or desktop twist listeners get an extra twenty percent off any plan for your first six months at open phone dog lash twist and linear linear helps product teams focus on what they do best planning and building great products.

Streamline issues, projects and product roadmaps in a tool your team will actually enjoy using get twenty five percent off at linear dot ABS slash west aren't everybody welcome back to this week in startups? S, i'm your host in calenus with me, my cohoes alles welham. And we have a full docket. Haru, alex.

I am good. I was typing up until the very last minute to get all of the notes in. We have a surprise guest, lots to get to Jason.

But first I want to show you my new favorite robotic demo, because I think everyone deserves last. This is so a generally day. I great a tex generation, understanding written words.

But what about your face, Jason? Well, IT turns out that some folks over a columbia university have made a robot that can do a couple of things. One is, IT can mimic you very quickly and very quickly towards here, uncanny valley. How does that make you feel to start?

I think it's great. It's awesome. IT looks like, uh, the movie I ve robot, right, which was asm off.

Uh, it's clearly somebody in that lab. Where's this taking place? China or M Y U R M?

This is the career of machines s lab at columbia university.

Oh, okay, well, I was trying deleting from me in a hundred. Uh, congratulations to the team there that looks awesome. I do think it's close to hitting the uncanny valley. And if I went to a mcDonalds and interfaced with this person or interfaced with this at a story box or at a counter at united airline or whatever southwest, I would have no problem that I think is be pretty cool .

yeah and has twenty six actuators actually make the face and here's the cool just um as of later this year, even this robot has, quote, learned to a forthcoming smile about one hundred and forty million seconds before the person actually smile. So robots can now anticipate your veins, which means that I think our future of using humans for human face interactions are coming to an end. So everyone, please welcome your robot. I overlawyered come to the future.

I mean, I think one of the things we're going to contend with, and i'm not trying to be too humors here, is we have population declines. Young people maybe are not seeing the value in starting families. Maybe marriage feels a little weird to folks.

We might be the last generation that felt that was like what you're supposed to do is kind of like the devolved get marriage, make babies you're going to college, make babies, get a career grown. So I think if you look at Young people today, maybe opting out of careers, they're not as poor focus their workplace fe baLance, focus everybody. In my interview I would say two at a three Young people I like tell about life baLance that doesn't exist at my company.

But if you wanted at your please, by all means start a company in against us. Number two, they don't seem to be on the marriage track. Number three, they do not seem to be on the owning a home or having kids track course is all kinds of reasons for that financial.

Owning home is hard in this country. Make sure texas so there will get in to realize another show. But he thinks interesting about this, alex is uh and again, this isn't to make uh, light of the situation in any way, but campaign ship is complex.

You are in a relationship with another human being for an extended period of time is dynamic. People evolve and you have to work at a relationship. You don't have to work at a relationship with a large language.

My little just do what you wanted to do. It'll be what you wanted to be. And then you add to at this face. And if this face starts talking to you and you get more warm and care, empathy from the L L, which the LLM, you're going to sit here and say, LLM s like we said on yesterday show, can do surgery as good as the best, most perfect surgeon way mo wants to make the best driver in the world and job e wants to make the best pilot world, the singular.

Well, I think columbia with that face and the LLM s and a bunch rather projects we ve seen are gonna make the perfect companion. And then that i'll make all of us highly unpredictable. You variable humans, uh, maybe for Young people, they just want the comfort of the perfect companion yeah .

maybe the good news for you and either is that um no one's going to let h robots play poker with us at the table. So if we're going to do our favor form of gambling, we're gonna need friends. And that is bullish .

for human interaction. No drives. We don't like your kind here to aisily get the hell out. C, P, O.

I mean, quite literally, if C, B, A, it's down. I'm done because I can do math Better than a computer. All right, let's put that aside on the show today, my friends, we have the rise of global solar with a very special guess that you may recall from the liquidity sum earlier this year. Video deal we didn't see coming that involves someone out Jones will get into that are the latest on the polis complex .

start up industrial complex to go get is investing to far too many companies work on to its global industrial complex.

Jason's here are to see some supplements, by the way, in case are curious, and to talk about the sexes of frogs, the mess of bully market. Then we're going to rap up this with a note.

Venture capital is one of the most lucrative asset classes in the world. why? Uh, look at today's public companies. Nearly all of them raised capital when they were private. Tony, I know IT, uber and Robin hood are the number one in the number two.

I invested in both of those, as you know, when they were private companies and before they even watched their products. And for venture capitalists and their backs ers, this is great, right? It's great to be me.

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why don't you introduce our guest and then all talk about what talk about.

right? H my good friend phil doch um has educated me tremendous ously over the last two decades on how energy works and when an energy story happens, the first thing I do is just I try to levels sad and understand the dynamics because when you're just reading the press, you know you as soon what you're reading is pretty strait forward, you read maybe a government pressure rely like we did this morning.

And today I wanted to talk about headline that keeps coming up, which is one of my favorite country's, australia. And australia has been having these moments where the overwhelming majority of their electrical um their electricity is coming from solar. And then in india, my understanding is a lot of people are hacking together their own solar panels, really premi batteries in going off grid.

And then i'm here in texas and having a lot of patients with friends, I just actually was talking to build girl, and we were talking about solar at our branches. And you could actually, if you have enough space at next, a couple of acres, you could actually build on solar form and then give back to the grid. Anyway, all this is fascinating to me, and I think very world positive. Welcome back to the program filter. Ch back.

Take out great to be here. Uh, alex.

want to you tee up just some facts on what's happening in australia because we've been trying to get to the story for two, three weeks. But there there were some other stuff going on in the country keeps getting push back. But yes, big, big picture.

There's something like four million homes in australia have now uh have residential solar solar panel on the roof. And out of penetration basis, I think there's thirty or forty million people. There are nature, how many household, but it's a large number of households. Walk a few numbers.

all right. So back in two thousand and eleven, australian rooftop soler was expected to eventually reach for terro ts of generation. In australia. I was to be about two percent of total generation, according to the reports that I found a decade later, IT was actually six x. That eventual target to the growth in australian solar production has been absolutely crazy.

And I think last year, rooftop similar panels that are part of the national electricity market, where were twenty four point six terms, that's an generation tons of power and that works out to just about twelve twelve percent um of homes generating electricity and at three point seven million house's. And then most recently, even musk actually highlighted a data point from western australia. Attention, Jason and IT, was that on one day this week at one thirty P.

M. And time does matter for solar stories. Um distributed solar pv accounted for two point one to give up to an output which was I think about eighty one percent of total generation, far outstripping what was generated from both natural gas and cold. So for a bit of time, which in australia was a one large solar panel chasm.

and we've had the same thing fill in germany where germany had renewables as cluster chip over to the majority. And then in texas, I think we have the largest installed base of solar here in texas, quite paradoxically, I guess in some ways. Um I guess my first question to you fail is what you you take on what's happening in australia is IT a monoculture with you know a very supportive government.

Everything aligned in terms of subsidies and they're just going forward. Does that have to do with geography and solar? Uh, just working really well because I have a lot of space.

It's a large, large land mass and they're close to china. Maybe they get cheap solar panels. crazy. Y explain to me what the theory is. Here are, what can we learn about australia and is IT in any way of road map for the rest of the west or or even indian china first?

Well, IT IT, absolutely. And IT, let's break IT down two things. First of all, when you install solar or wind, most of your cost is all up front.

It's a fixed capital cost. Sun does in cost twenty thing, in the wind doesn't cost twenty thing. So you produce no matter what.

And so the more you install IT, you're going to have these things on the wind blow to the sunshine. We can have a lot of production. So the united states go in california and taxes. We've already had moments where electricity Prices have got negative because the turbans get a production tax credit, so they want to sell up until they gain a one set.

So just to share amount, to reduce power in any jurisdiction could call to these weird abnormities when you get negative Prices, when they get to be a huge part of the supply that occurs today, and that could occur more and more in the world, what we do will preemption that. The second thing is this residential solar, where you put the panels on the on the hell sis, which is what you're quoting australia. So if you give me one second here, it's kind of an interesting problem.

You decide to put uh panel on your house and let's say the panel the electricity costs you just for argument, say twenty six for kills lot hour and how to were used to live when I live electricity public causes three sense of kilowatts our so you say, great, that's a win for me. I'm going to my panel. So now the problem is your panels don't provide electricity at night or maybe when you have a the cold plunge going and vi washing machine and the home filter, and at that point rely on the grip.

Well, your guilt, guilt, li says, of the fifty cents I was charged with, the forty seven year killed an hour at home, two thirds that was for me to have the grid ready for. So if I let everyone just switched the home, the solar, without picking up any part of the grid, i'm going to destroyed my business spot. And so there are places in the world that utilities are going under because people are getting out of the grid and they have to think about that.

They're called strange costs, like how do we paid back all these wires in structure? So when you have this residential solar, the ultimate question is how much as a homework have to pay for the grid that is using lesa. So that's the real question.

If you talk to someone who likes residential solar, they say, screw you, it's my house. I can do what I want on IT. I should have to pay you a penny that you talk utility, they say you should be paying me a lot of money.

Heard kill a lot hour. So that's so in australia, they are very good rate. They are very good rebates.

And terrorists that encourage solar. We used to have that. California and the utilities recently amended that, and they called them three point no. And when we put down the rebates and the government support, there was a slow and residential.

So actually fail. I had that charge for us. Let's pull that up, john, if we could just explain the start of her folks who are watching the youtube video.

The bars that are blue are the old regime, california, regarding how much you get paid for having rooftops lar. And then the yellow bars marked the new regime in the m three point o or what's called in bt in government lingo. But Jason, what matters here is, after this change was announced, there was an explosion in people putting solar uh, out because they can get the earlier rate. And since the rules have changed a decline and if you observe the size of the orange, the yellow bars, I mean compared to historical blue bars, you can see a decrease in install. So feel IT seems that N A M three point o really smashed the installed rate of rooftop solar in california.

Yeah exactly. And basically just a question, how much of the savings is the homework getting and IT and then three took away something, the homework really um but I think like the most interesting thing is when you think about a house that could have an electric vehicle with a power wall and residential solar, that's really the way of the future really love to have um on sight.

The question there really is how expensive is that? The the the evy and the powerball probably paper themselves because you compared yourself to gasoline. I think the question of pressure solar on site is a harder question because just think about of this way, defer to take a couple acres uh, Jason's pon rosa, I could lay down field to fields of solar, whether I did IT with my little smell, small trailer park, all in attentive. So was going to get up, put nails to the roof and to a whole bunch of fixed cost. So it's much easier do solar at scale.

That is like a very interesting concept. When I started talking about solar recently and they were I was immediately started the discussion with the roof of her house and they were like rope, just find an acre in the quarter of the ranch and you put the batteries there. You put the uh solar panels and I was actually talking to free barger bad and he said, what are the incredible gains that you get from having space is that powers walls and other units that are meant to be inside the house um are designed to be incredibly uh, small in terms of footprint for obvious ous reasons. You don't want to give up just where a footage to IT, but doing that doubles the cost of them and makes them much more expensive than if you just put them into, I don't know, a container.

a small shed.

you just spread them out and those are much cheaper. I guess the longer short of this is if you were running the united states and we started looking, you know, ten, twenty, thirty years out, we know that we're onna have a massive demand for all these data centres. Uh, we know that we are an energy exporter.

Uh, we have tons of natural gas. We have tons of oil. We do pretty greater the sudden, after all this fear in hand ringing. So IT is a two power question. Number one, why do we have so much fear in hand ring for so long in this country and in the world but large about p oil and that the entire world was gonna thrown into chaos at the me know ten years after the millennium um and that the united states was gona have to fight all these foreign wars and then bring the oil back and now we're sitting here and everybody got everything wrong and then we go up or two, which is OK if we ve got everything wrong over the last thirty or forty years, our lifetime has been filled with fear, uncertainty and doubt about energy, and we solved at all. How do you think about the next thirty or forty years of our lives?

Yeah, I think in the first part, you're absolutely we ve got that wrong and we continue get wrong. Every estimator. Solar is always too low. And you see with the E Z J said, people just don't understand how fast to jay curb works when you read IT.

So I think the good uses technology wins IT just wins IT doesn't matter whose in all this, what interest strates or our technology wins and IT has in energy being practical solar pits. So what do I think of the next thirty years? Let's if I say thirteen years years, they will will be around for whatever all.

So I like these thirty years. Um I think a electricity based be free. So we don't think of IT is a costly, which just like wifi in the beginning of wifi, how out out to .

we had to thirty, but someone and I think a gogo inflight was probably thirty or forty box. And you can get a membership for and share IT at your company.

The sky still makes me send them checked some reason, but now doesn't be a poker game. But yes, so but now if you walk inside a starbucks, right, you can have free wifi, fed free electricity actually too. I think that over the next twenty thirty years, whether it's S M R or renewable penetration, big news, getting bigger.

I think we going to see energy Prices really go very close to uh zero that after you be advertising up from cost and it'll see a lot of carbon free sources. So i'm very, very bush on that. And I think electric vehicles in the home, we have a much worse to pisa ted opening yearly expert of this.

But I think it's highly unlikely that my grandchildren drive your car would be autonomous next tric. I think he seems very good that to me, go to away. It's hard to imagine going back to somebody. And so I see a world with a lot of energy, choice and technology is he continues to surprise to the upside. And very coach.

interesting. You bring that up. I head a dream the other night that I was in myself driving car on the way to dinner and taxes. And I was watching because I just felt fall to sleep water in the next game and shout out jungle cat, and I had a stream, and in the car, the entire next game was on the windshield yeah, with all the statistics and everything was on the a display path. So instead of speed in everything, I was just looking at the player sets and in the shooting and everything. And I woke up in the morning, and i'm super delighted to think, god, we going to recapture a lot of all about productivity in time and and distance. Is is gonna shine them anyways?

Yeah, yeah. I think if you think about our Carry you to see you 要不要 去 say。 So you're at the game, they will be to work out a car. I don't know, be like instance to when .

you look at the I call the um it's kind of like the job of the hot stuff that he takes to the store. Lack that uh uh you on made the the the sort of bus I don't know what he called IT cyberwar .

what was the name he intelligence but there's .

a different kind of step yeah you .

you have to tell a lot of the people of the nominated for that I think that work like .

but well and we also have van, the cyber .

van actually.

This could be a skip set, but but the those have like a great potential to be a living room, poker room, workout room, and the index could be covered. Founders know that every miscall is a missed opportunity. Customers don't want to wait.

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What an amazing offer at open phone of comm list twist that's O P E N P H O N E A hom lashed twice for twenty percent of for six months as we rapper with you what's going on at nuclear united states, we are seeing customer show up in terms of big tech with big iron saying real pay and they're becoming customers of these small modular reactors and maybe asking them to turn things on or put data centres s next to existing nuclear power point. Did you think we'd see in our lifetime from the nineteen seventy eight seventy nine no nukes concert shout out to Jackson hunt, bob dolen, with the Grace performance has have tangled up in blue ever was after no nukes concert. I was very inspired by that concert as an eight or nine year old man who happened in my whole life was, again, no nukes sums up.

And now we realized what that was, a huge mess that celebrity is got behind. And now people are starting to a say, hey, maybe I buy a small module reactor up, put a deposit down. Google, microsoft, everybody to be getting in on this is IT gonna en.

We'll be sitting here ten, twenty years from now. They'll be many more nuclear actors in the united. You heard sx probably on all and say, not in my backyard. I don't .

want to be anywhere near that. I people, I think, pray to fly. It's what I really took that those planes in the air, scary, scary.

is a true story. He's never been a, uh, uh, a calm flying.

Let me say the following. But when I was in high school, I worked on the set energy committee. I worried to do with nuclear.

We've gone nothing in forty years and I wonder, said three or four years ago, new powers in sanity, they we're not going back down that were. But this really begins with data sectors. The amount of energy is being demanding by the hyper scale carbon friend is unstable.

Where IT is gonna be the biggest thing, I think, in energy since practicin really is I and the hyper scales have said we need baseload carbon tree power that is rely and that brought them back to dogs for reasons that you've discuss bill growth and first discussed. And so but you want to modulate Better than large because of hits. The data set are sites now in full disclosure, we have an investment in action with amazon involved.

Um so I do what to be accused to talk to my book without disclosing. But I think what you're really seeing is its data center driven. They can they want power, they want lively, they want to pay either invite. And that's really the change chase, and that's a old other show. But the data center stuff is what's really spurred on, uh.

the new discussion. So we will be sitting here intent twenty years, in all likelihood, with new nuclear plants in the united states. And to your point about waste.

the sage, that's not the best and .

probably but it's certainly when that works and you not a waste required that that big and I can be controlled. But yes, the answer request to twenty thirty years without, I believe we will see material increase in the electrons. You can make the power as we demand more electricity. The whole world is electrifying. This is still dead.

I would say anything where for you before we just and let them get back to her.

I'm gonna just point out that you, ella must recently did a, and this was a child, not cuber twenty sixth. And he said, yes, we are going need a lot of energy. But he argues, feel that for long term, almost all the energy they were going to get will come from the sun.

And his argument is that going to have a scale? And so i'm also A S M R. Nuclear energy ball.

And i'll just say in bi to this, not in bi, my black yards. Good to go put a reactor here. I'm fine with that.

But is this a temporary fix until we sort out solar generation and story on a mass scale? I S. And to get to our solar future.

will I be I I don't know what time print ellins talking about. He could be talking about a century. So I mean, I don't think of band is over twenty or thirty year period.

I think we're talking about twenty, thirty years more or so. He's a visionary. I'm not a visionary.

I I don't think they were going to be in all similar world IT over the next fifty or six years that that's the mean h and after that, that seems a bridge too far private. But look, the man is not to be trial. But IT comes to seeing the future.

So a couple generations more nuclear power than props a solar future. Jason, either way you slice that its Green energy that's low carbon. So I think either way, i'm happy I give .

you one prediction. I don't believe that there is ever bit of a data center built out scale the united states to start connected to the grain. They are all connected. The grid, I think must will do one that.

You because you can build a hyper scale, a massive data center or a that is not looked into the Green.

Wow, I tell, I don't know if he can, but i'll tell you if anyone can, he will. And I suspect he must be thinking he have everything he cares about. Carbon free attack have been scale, speed, trying controls much as you can on the private side. If anyone's going to do is going to be him. And I suspect that will be a interesting.

Well, if you think about IT, let's think aloud about this incredibly bold prediction. If you had a battery factor, a battery factory and let's say happen to .

and solar and and solar .

and let's say your battery factory happened to be in a very Sunny state like, I don't know, no vada. And let's say you had a couple of companies that had, uh, a big need for electricity for ai, X A I, twitter slash acts and of course, tesla. Well, if you have the batteries coming up the back of the factory and you just sell one and keep one and then you're making the solar panels here. Is he making the solar panel here?

I wonder what I think? I think nature, but he's used natural gas in his plants, in a some natural .

gas going. But I mean, literally the factories there and the and the right batteries are coming out the back. The batteries would never see the sun. They would literally just go to their eventual resting point at the end of the conversion. Al.

that's so. So if you think about that gas, that gas is surprised by location and in some place is very, very cheap because they would uses there. So if you were to build, uh, data setter where there was one of that gas and if you were something like muscles really to takes of technology risk and wrap ID, IT could be pretty interest. Now that's really a cooky talk is but it's pretty interest well .

and if you if you look at that, guess I cracked me, i'm wrong. But there are there is a burn off from when you when .

you when I don't .

know how much of that there is, but some amount of that could go into battery is and he's doing some really incredible stuff of battery storage in australia. So this becomes a really interesting if people are buying the natural ask, great. But if they're not buying IT, IT can keep flowing and and flow into the batteries and then you smooth out the curve.

Really interesting. Uh, the world's going to be amazing if energy gets close to free. I mean, this will change geo politics for but look.

it's ready. They get you in certain things. And as you know, that's a lot of people think about big coin mining and had to think about that. So, you know, just the one way to think that we said this, you know, the summer, every one of the world thinks to date as set size and that, I swear footage, how much they cost could be done by large power. If so, the world of tech and energy are now really fully integrated, and every hyper scale is focus on energy.

Yeah, amazing. And you know the what could happen also with the silence zone of water? And then you know that's an energy problem for my what I understand.

And in some countries, israel, other islands, they're all of these sale and they have to burn oil to do IT. Now you've able to do that with battery solar, renewables nuclear. And if water .

becomes for to lars the or solar, I think but that's why the future obviously the next step is future, right? That would be even another bridge.

yes. I mean, do we need fusion? I mean.

the thing this I was very optimistic that we're gona get to more commercially viable net positive fusion reactions in the next you know ten, fifteen years. But after just looking at the growth of solar power generation, both here and abroad, improves its Better, Better technology. And even though in S S, I have wondered if we need fusion to complete a Green energy revolution at all.

to be that's too hard, you know, have very comic tech wins. But for me to say which tech shouldn't win in that, I know more than like the guy is a carbon fusion verses, you know, so and so new thing that not something that I thought as much about. I think right now, there are a lot of really far people running at really interesting problems. Uh and there's can be a lot of success can to make this happy.

And so I really appreciate sharing your knowledge. Um working people learn more about your no thank.

you.

To my guy, banker, well, that was amazing. Hh, alex was really great to have an expert on in you to fill in our gas right?

And which there are many. Well, I mean, I just want to a point out that filled dial in from A A fancy airport lange. And so if if you're I wasn't as up to usual part, that's because we had a more like an ipad in an airport because that's how dedicated films are coming on the show.

Just one last thing about this solar energy generation. We found some data from this a that shows that in two thousand twenty three, the share of global generation from solar was over five and a half percent. And ten years ago I was a point eight percent.

No H A lot of work to do, but i'm just very encouraged by this. And my point about the fusion thing wasn't to dismiss her. This fusion starts.

I think they're awesome. But I just like that. We don't have to solve commercially viable effusion generation in the near term to help the plan IT and get more powers. So we need more power and Greener powers.

So yeah I mean one of the things I always like to focus on you know I really don't like politics pretty icy red um and I don't like to spend time with politicians have been some reports buying for opposition in the administration um I can assure you those are falls just like I was I asked to that .

on the show I do two years ago I was Jason. I didn't .

realize that multiple newspapers have said that I vying for a position in the um in the administration. I'm not I am supportive uh and I and I hope for the best. And if they did us for help, I would help on the margins in an advisory capacity. I guess as an american, if I was called to help in somewhere, I would um but I like hanging out our technologies, i'll be honest and the reason I like hang out technologies every time I see a big problem and you know I get play my small part by talking about IT here with you and maybe um highlighting um some of the innovations and maybe placing a bet on some of them that that feels like A A very um a high use of my time, a really good use of my time and I am just a sounded that a lot of the things we've have been told our a intractable, I guess is a good word yes, are not at all intractable.

And so if we are sitting here and we were told our entire adult lives, as long as I can remember from the oil crisis, which I remember in one thousand and seventy six or nineteen seventy seven member dad having to go get or get gasolines and IT was based on if your license plate ended IT and even or odd number and I was like, oh my god, this is like to stop an we're not going to be able to travel in the car and IT wasn't that bad. You couldn't get gas, you know, three days a week and you get the gas four days or whatever. Have to be long story short.

H during the gas shorted into things, you know and is no new stuff or technology rains supreme and entrepreneurship and capitalism. I gave a little speech yesterday. It's gonna to begin any problem that you think is interactive.

Get off your s, get a team together and take a swing at the band and we will give you the first hundred k and there's bunch people there who give you the next five hundred k and then there's people who are designed to give you one to three million, and then there's people who designed to give you five fifty. So on. And so capitalism and entrepreneurship in democracy are the messiest most effective Operating system in that in the world. hard. appreciated.

Yeah, I just only give shit to the company we talk to um a couple weeks back, which is X O what they're doing um storage of solar power using solar lyn sis is not solar panels and the stars in the form of industrial heat, which they can use still into power induct. Just one example of founders that are building domestically, uh, awesome ways to collect and then disperse energy.

So I i'm actually very optimistic about power generation in the next ten years like because s amos are awesome fusion making progress. This is blowing up and there are so many cool ways people are approaching store energy, not just batteries, there's compressed air storage. There's all sorts of awesome things. So Frankly, I really do think that we're going to see, s phil said, essentially free to charity. I think by the time I .

kids going to come, we're going into the gold age. I've always said it's going to the roaring twice and we're soaking in IT. Put aside all the strive around, you know well ideology, identity politics, um maga, you know all these other um culture wars, all of that pals into comparison to the power of a small team to build a technology, product or service and change the world, all of this is for me, wasted, wasted energy.

If all the people complaining about the stuff, incentive and arguing and fighting just built a couple of startups, we would solve the issues we have an education, incarceration, housing. All the stuff is so solvable, and almost all wars are fought over resources. On the margin, you get some religious ones here, there, there are a little cookie, and hopefully there, in there, you know, the end, as religions move from reading two thousand years old books, literally, and maybe interpreting them. And here we are.

There are so many american crisis comments that i'm not onna make a given the church that I was raising founders.

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before we move on from the Green energy ah things there was some light breaking news before we jumped on which is that a the latest reporting indicates that the truck administration intends to kill off the seventy .

five dollars sorry.

Yeah yeah I think also voters wrote about IT and i'm i'm a little bit disappointed by this because I felt to me like a pretty effective place to put some of our national capital to encourage a shift towards evs. So I think just personally philosophy, this doesn't track with my view where we should be going. But there is interesting tweet from spor kim in from to u capital management and he thinks that you can't repeal this so they won't pass the house given how many companies that have E Y factories in the south. And so I think we're going na see a very interesting political test of a trip administration of objective and something that might be a little bit harder to pass at the house and you might have expected and very curious where this goes and who wins in the near term.

okay. This is a multifaceted ory. I believe I don't have any inside information less. Anybody think I talk to the administration or to any particular friends of um pretty simple um you can buy a use E V right now for ten to twenty five k my model x i've had forever with which has relatively low miles.

I don't like maybe fifty or sixty thousand miles is worth like fifteen thousand and twenty thousand dollars for a model x it's crazy how, uh, many of these E, V are available at such low Prices. And the battery packs, everybody was like a battery pack after ten years, has done so. Quite the opposite.

They seem to be like maybe ten percent degradation, which which which means their perfect for city car, or even like a suburban car. No problem as a suburban car, maybe if to drive, I would say, three, four hours a day. Yeah, you're gonna probably want to get a newer one with a three hundred mile battery park is supposed to the older ones which had typically one hundred fifty, two hundred fifty mile by packs. Um so I do think maybe we are unnecessary. Now I don't I like you.

I don't mind um spending a little bit of money of taxpayer money to do this because IT will take literally um it'll give back I think years of life to people in certain cities where we used to have some small problems and IT sounds crazy but there was a study done in a burkey I don't have IT in front of me here but this study showed that in shanghai and cities in china where there were smart problems IT was literally taking IT was the equivalent of people smoking a pack of cigarettes a day or two packs of cigarettes day depending on which city you win this is a ten year old city he was about and talked about her here on the show. As the cities have gotten cleaner and they are really pushing EV there, that means everybody gets back like years of their life. And you know these are cities, twenty thirty million people in IT.

If everybody thirty million people get back five years, there is one hundred fifty years, you know hundred fifty million years of human existence which is beautiful to to survive that so um but if you look at what he said with the cyber taxi that they can make those for thirty k maybe it's to twenty. If there was a twenty thousand dollar or thirty thousand dollar eva right now, they would not be able to keep them in stock. I believe the reason text stock is you know so high is because they will, and I have no any information, always give that to climber.

I'm just guessing that at cyber taxi, there's going to be a hatchback like A A two door version of that with the steering wheel. Just I guess because if that existed, I would ord to on the first day, I literally would have ordered to and had those for, you know, me to drive in the bigger cars for when I with the kids, and just take a smaller car, that is, be with two sets in IT. Why not? I would love to have a good two, six, thirty thousand or dies around long way of saying when the fremework IT sounds a problem.

I think it's a good idea that we step back. There are lots of dynamics that we are going to see over and over again. You pointed IT out. This and so this time talks with those.

So both of these impact you on in his role, I think this is brilliant because he gives you on the high ground in terms of, well, if I helped you know trump with his administration and i'm helping cut cost. And I was the first one who said, you know what, I ouldn't be surprised if you, on tweet, like i'm a favorite, I take the some sees away from everybody. The government doesn't need to pay anymore.

If he said that, let might take a big IT might give a hit to test a stock, I am sure how much of what they do, you know, the subsidies drive at this point, but IT would be the high ground. And the same thing with rural internet, I mean, I said this publicly, what why are we paying for rural internet when starlink exists and there's five competitors to start link Better in some process of getting their satellite that in fact, space acts is putting them up for them. So why on earth would we get involved in rural broadband and and run fibre lines when those same people are ordering store lines today while they wait for the government to run at one thousand and or our this is why doge is so brilliant.

If they get IT done, these are the kind of low hanging through. Just cancel this and and you pointed that are perfectly. Will politicians under the direction of the day you on start giving back money and not taking the money that they fought really hard for, for their constituents to, you know, uh, bring jobs to their region to bringing economic value?

Will they give that money back and let the taxpayers and not have to pay as much tax? That's really fundamentally what we're going to be talking about here. And IT is a tragedy of the comments uh, because everybody has to agree smaller government, less spending.

And you can have like alabama, say the coloration yeah you give up X, Y, Z. We're not giving a lot. We need IT more than you. And that's the standoff that we're going na .

have over the next couple years. It's gonna messy as I think there sometimes we money that is very positive and I am worried of the following possible chain reaction, tax create goes away. Every non tesla major american car company pulls back from electric, and then the electrification of the american carefully get set back ten or fifteen years. And we have more pollution and more dependence on the variability of oil Prices, which we are the biggest producer, the world that help. Yeah, but is that the future we want to be leaning into or more into electric and solar and Green and sort I think you .

I share service on and do you believe IT should be a states issue .

or a federal issue? The tax transfer .

is in the standards for them because we do have in california a like I wonder sometimes if the federal government know is too big, too involved and that states could mitigate this. And if in taxes they don't have attacks, an additional tax and additional rules are how clean gasoline is. People can live in taxes and make their decision.

If you want to pay for a five extra dollar per gan of tax in california and have cleaner air and have different standards for how many miles per gin and has to be, would that not be Better? And then car companies could say, you know that so we're not could you make this model of car if you want to have a suburban? It's not available in california, but it's available these other states, california, you gave us some standards we do want to hit, but you can buy the these other states and then people you know it's too frustrated and to living california uniform, you just got out and we keep the fifty states there. I say this parallels the abortion debate um and then IT parallels the gambling online gambling debate and IT parallels the debate around uh cannabis and IT seems like the way to make progress sometimes is to let the states find out and let them come to their own conclusions on a very local basis.

I don't know you that well. I think glad the things lead is is often a good way to go about things. I mean, why as texas always had outsize influence on american education for a they have a unified system.

They buy our textbooks. And so texas is educational standards have long had outsized influence on the rest of of ation. If you're into keeping religion of schools is one of your things you keep tabs on.

But california has even more population xi. California s rough is the two large 点 through the new york。 But we're always going to have large states wanting to push their own perspectives and agenda.

So record in texas, texas independence, well, you know, we can do with our own. And then california, the six large economy in the world has its own standard. I think you will be a mistake for the federal government to say two individual states, you can't have stricter standards.

But I think you would be difficult if you could say there's a federal standard and you can have a loser one at the state level because then you have attention between whose and charge. So I think california should be like to have its own rules and should be allowed to throw its way around, because that is one of the laboratory aries of democracies, one of the states, some hoping and getting back in the politics. I am hoping that the administration doesn't preclude californians ability to set regulations about cars like we're hearing they might because that was set us back even further.

So I don't know. I want self drive electric cars and big batteries. That's what I want to here is because .

there faster by way. Good job. Producer john burkey earth, uh twenty fifteen article, air pollution location equivalent and cigarettes per death in U.

S. The average person because of pollution in the twenty fifteen article was smoking. Point four cigaret today in Cheney, the worst ever recorded. Who is the equivalent of smoking you wanted?

Guess are you looking at IT?

I saw a sixty three secrets a day that's three packs of cigarettes, beijing average for, uh, on a bad day, twenty five and see you just think about that. You know you're in the tragedy. This is where you to take kids like smoke cigarettes and then you live in shanghai or beijing or whatever or one of these other, you know, industry cities. And are there your kids? Babies are smoke and sixty packs of cigarettes a deck.

It's not good. So just smoke cigarets.

Before I said, yeah, I like A R. K.

I used to smoke at the before I gave that, yeah, for I drank a lot and the two kind of go hand in and yes, I let me tell you, if you smoke, pack cigarettes, which is twenty, you feel up the next day you don't feel really I I always did like packed day is a lot of cigarettes. How many cigarettes .

is not determinable smoke to a day you wouldn't the next day.

because that for me was always pared with alcohol. I can't to do, but I point a packed days a lot, two parts of days a lot. Sixty secrets a day. I mean.

that's your dad and he push in the closest because he yeah, he says, okay, you smoke these three packs and they too work, feel so nauseous and never go near again. That happened. And when I I did three shots in jane, when I was like thirteen or fourteen years old, and man maybe was like five shots and I just never I see I see that tanker ray bottle, the Green.

I literally will feel like i'm about to pass out. There's about the things on the dog I wanted to get to you. I think this Polly market story is super important because, um well, yeah hate everything seems to go back to politics this day, but uh, know these days, but policy market has captured people's imagination.

You know where I stand. Adults should be able to do what they want with their money, and we should allow a credit, uh, not a credit people, to become a credit to a simple test. And yeah, there are so many ways to skin the cats.

I don't know why you can go to vegas or you can do on my poker, and I don't know three out of five states, but you can place a bed on the election IT seems kind of stupid to me. But um there seems to have been an F, B I RAID on the C E O. And this is all confirmed down I think.

Uh, maybe take us to the, sorry, the F, B I rated the C E, O. Pilling markets home, kick down the door at six A M, and took his devices. I heard this is all true, but this seems pretty dramatic. And IT happened five days after the election.

and Polly .

market was the number one one of the top searches on the internet. And they obviously predicted absolutely correctly, you know, in those final couple of weeks, months, the election results, I mean, down to the state. That seems they got right in some cases, as so, yes, sorry.

okay. So the FBI Carried out a search of shame. Coplin healthy lives in new york city.

Now keep in mind, he is the city of Polly market. Polly market is beautiful. Vely not open to us residents.

And there's been quite a lot of backing forth between government in our regulatory bodies in the american government and so called prediction market. So just does polling market and also coach, which critically a has been open to people in the united states. So there's a lot of bad history here just on.

And I don't know how much of the modified just trading commission or cftc we want to get in here. But the just as far as I can tell us that looking broadly, prediction markets and the U. S.

Government, the cftc felt that these types of wages es on what are called, I think, event based binary options, essentially you make a bet doesn't happen, doesn't an not happen um should not be allowed to target elections because there's concern that if you introduce gambling on or investing, if you wish on elections IT can uh increase the chance of meddling and this is also, by the way, something that comes up in sports a lot. It's why athletes aren't a lot to bet on their own games. At google show, hay, autonation, baseball can, even if you are more on that.

But the C， D, C goes bucket, repeated dly in federal, in different courts. And so by the end you could on coaching, I believe, bet on the election now, Polly, market different, uh, and I think this is gona hinge, probably, Jason, on if polymer did enough to prevent U. S.

Citizens from using net service. Now I know you're a poker player, and I know you've played on mine. I'm sure you remember black friday and how we all had to go ubp s for a while. Do you think that's the same issue here? Is Polly market?

I suspect that's what's happening. Um the regulatory bodies should not get to determine. How americans spend their money, uh, except maybe on the margins on extremely dangerous things.

But I don't see the harm in placing a that on political candidates. You can do IT in vagues. You can do IT outside the country. So it's gonna happen no matter what do and maybe a little transparency, maybe upper bounds or limits on them.

So if you bet over a hundred thousand dollars, you have to have your name associated with or there could be other rules because yeah perhaps at the edge of the margin. I don't know some incredibly wealthy person could manipulate the market if I didn't have enough liquidity to give a perception that a certain candidate was running. Let's take IT out of the presidential policy.

Just take a smaller one, like the mayor race or something. And so a rich person runs for mayor. They get ten rich friends to place bets on these markets in a very coordinated way.

They paint that tape you can look at up as a way of making or wash trades, trades that make a look like there's more volume than there is. This is something that happening crypt to a whole bunch. People bought, oh my god, I going to buy this N F T.

It's trade fifty times um in in the last two months so i'll just be the fifty for straight and that all flip IT and IT. Turns out the other fifty pds were the same. Two or three people with ten fake accounts eat trading IT.

And then you're the what's called the bag holder. Watch trading, painting the tape. These things exist. There's regulations around them for a reason. The same regulations could apply to prediction markets.

And just like you are not allowed as an N B A player or an owner, I believe or a referee to gamble because we saw what happen with the tim doni N B A scandal I think he was telling mobster, I believe uh or gambling ers um who was gonna the umpires who are gonna the officials at the best world game and baseball who is officially ating a game, you can get a back in early could you knew their patterns? This is like really, really, you know, interesting, sharp. Because if you get a two, three, four percent advantage and you're placing a lot of bets over time, IT can be A A tremendous advantage.

Putting all this aside, um I suspect what happened here because it's now conspiracy theory corner time everybody's parallel lingus to the hunter bine in laptop case in which the FBI was able to get that story banned or or you know the link to the story in the new ork post ban and they were able to do that because they said, have this is russian difference that seems pretty logical because trump himself, he has russia to hack calories thing and the russians were doing all kinds and and they do shands. They are like, it's kind of what they do, right? It's the places run by A K, G, B. agent.

Does that mean that trump is a mentioning candidate? But you could you could believe trump is not a mentioning candidate and there's no p tape. And then on the other side, believe the russians do interfere.

And of course they do. So the fbs got egg on its face. As to all the people who signed off on saying, hey, this thing is not real, turned out to be real.

They shouldn't have band IT public, should have been able to figure out. But that was a really difficult decision to make. I think a couple of weeks for for an election and fairness, but that does seem month.

There were some conspiracy or cover out there. Now, everybody saying this is a good spiracle or cover up. So what are we how do we process that? Because i'm starting to think about a game theory and give you my position on and you cute up, but there's a lot of spiracle corner going on here.

I don't have my time for a to keep on here, but if I put my election steam foil hat on glow market, put the shark money on deal mean, like, where are we supose to even go with this, right? Like they did, did they? Is this venge? Is this revenge? Because trumped one, I don't understand I don't think that they've got the cause in the correlation. I think they may know the correlation.

but not the question here. Anyway, tell me what's going with Peter chill. And there's a lot of money from the Peter chill world that would into back in a transfer tory, so if you are shame coplin and you just got rated by the FBI, they just took your devices and you want to rally people to your side, what do you do?

You get on x and you make a tweet that says, and I quote here, it's discouraging that the current administration would seek a last ditch effort to go after companies they deem to be associated with political opponents. To know me, this is the epidemic. What is usually dismissed to be called the virtue signal.

And I don't think it's what's going on. So people talk a lot about government and how they use the law. My favorite example this recently is that when hundred biden was in trouble with law, joe biden was like, but a little plates of our policy, what happens and let that process go, letting his son get essentially piled in the present in court and looked terrible.

And I get to them, I love you, but will see this through that. The guy we're talking about, not the type of guy who waits until after an election to go after a thing, is at the time of IT doesn't make sense to me here so shame points for for rally you your team to your side. Good job cabbin the new cycle. I just don't think that it's true.

I you know I believe that many conspiracy theories um come true, but the majority don't OK. So let me just put out my general concept on conspiracy y there sometimes yesterday's conspiracy there is tomorrow's polluter. We saw that with the cafe church.

I talked about example all the time. People thought that was a conspiracy theory. That that was the world's largest petipa ring turned out to be true. So let's put IT aside and congratulations to the team of the boston globe, incredible research and investigative journalism for decades, to uncover this incredibly just important, as you know, a cover up that occurred in the cafe at church.

What all that said, in this case, i'm trying to figure out if you were going to do this are the FBI and it's a conspiracy dinner. okay. What are you trying to accomplish if you went after them six months before the election and you did IT, that would mean you believed that they had an impact on the election.

And that election impact, if they were democrats in the FBI who are doing this, would hurt their team. And they would stop IT before I could hurt their team. But there would also, people have to also recognize that the overwhelming majority of law enforcement is conservative, like six or seven percent like are conservatives.

Just just to add to that, the divide, the classic divide is that the F, B, I is more conservative than the C. I.

A is more liberal, just over of that. But I just know from being in a family enforcement in being around in my whole life, pretty conservative, served very conservative, like the only time IT wasn't conservative, where maybe in like the northeast you would have like a union, and the democrats would fight porter for getting a union. You know, pay increases in the republicans want smaller government.

This is a historical, no longer applies, that seems the government would be you to save the government money was the classical, you know, not give into the unions and their demands, putting all that side on a game theory, okay, you want to do what now to punish them, stop them because the election results are done? Or is there is there some greater conspiracy here where we don't know, but maybe they have evidence that there was a coordinated effort to manipulate the market, and they want that to be on record between now and the new year when trump takes over the justice department. So yeah, let's say there was some coordinated attack and I don't know, shame became aware reit or something or there was mark imation, but I don't think the market manipulation would have any impact on the election.

So I don't think the prediction markets influence people's voting. I don't I think it's such a niche thing that like, am I going to not vote for pala? Because I see the prediction market is sixty cents to forty cents. I don't think so. If i'm a democrat, i'm going to vote for her.

If i'm republican, i'm going to for trump, like it's already baked in and then the moderates in the middle who are like corky, people like me um I don't know where you stand on that, but you know the people who are double haters. Is polymer having no impact on me? My all my best friends were what we need to come out for trump publicly, and I didn't do IT that would have a much bigger influence on me.

Is my high profile friends asked, give me IT as a more trump and me taking all these errors because I refused to. So I I just can't figure out the logic of this case, which is another way of saying it's probably true that people cheated and pretended they were outside the country in place bets. I don't think that poly markets responsibility will be totally unless the people cheat and they get fake I D and they go to a bar and the bar checked I D, or they check I D on a regular basis and you want a drink that's on you, that's on the person who came through.

And so I I don't know, I I think that this to me is smells fishy, but we don't have complete information. Let's wait for complete information. I bet you this is like a ticky tacky. H I think this is most likely a ticky tacky.

There were some cases of people using A V, P, N, and somebody said, hey, shane, we thought some people and he probably said, okay, be on their accounts or yeah, lets, you know, refer IT to the compliance department, which is what I would do. I see you. So this seems very strange to me. And okay, like the idea of waiting over speculated, even the way to speculated for ten minutes with you.

I know, I know you and I can help yourselves. So two things add to that really good. One is main character syndrome.

The prediction markets inside of, I would say, right leaning in venture circles have been annointed with the mental of oracle, and they are now treated as essentially reality rate chart. cool. I think there are need, attract them.

I used them as one data point in a mix. But a lot of people really do things that they are the future. So if you are that personally center of the storm, the city of the company itself, probably you.

Feel like you in nail and everything else is a hammer. I get that. The only thing that that says the C, F, G, C had A A settlement with polling market. I think this was back in two thousand and twenty two, Jason. I think I was like a it's a one point four million or settlement, but the point is they've .

even on the C F, T, C radar. So I have to right predicted oh, IT, did you say polymer are predicted.

the market poly market .

predict IT also had a judgment against that, I think, and cause obviously had a legal battle to do all there.

So I want to say one more thing that which is I don't think the regulators here are the devil I know. That's not a popular sentiment in technology right now, but I think they're trying to enforce the rules as they are currently writing.

So maybe instead of consulate waking regulators sticks, we should go to congress and shake up the actual underline rules that were using and that allow for transparency in the prediction of markets to allow adults to do whatever they want without the concerns that we have about transparency and wash trading and manipulation. And so aport. But no, I don't think most people pay tension to this at all.

I don't think that changes votes. And I think this is, this is peak nursery. And I bet you IT comes down to K Y, C, which which is pretty frequent in the world of vt.

That is probably correct. I and by the way, I I know shame I met him. He was on the the live stream. If you're running a big enterprise like this and it's going really well, you don't need to bring the rules like there's no upside in him breaking the rules.

So I don't I I mean would be incredibly, incredibly shot and disappointed, Frankly, if there was anything that he did was that was not by the books when you run a prediction market. And I knew this because in an investor, uber, which was known to, you know, have some disputes with regulators from time to time. Oh really yeah and you know what you do you have a lot of lawyers are button ed up? Yeah you're very thoughts about these things, even though from the outside of me look chaotic.

You're very strategic like you have a lot of people discussing every one of these issues and doing the right thing. And yes, maybe saying we disagree with how right turn works in san franco or how you interpret or how the taxi lobe interpreted in york and how our attention and we interpret IT. And we are willing to fight that fight.

Long story short, lets wait for the facts. I M out, folks. Let's long jump to some crazy conclusions here. Uh, on either way, I think it's gonna a tiki taki minor thing um that's going on here.

And sometimes the FBI you know um goes on little adventures because they get some tips or something like that and IT all turns out to be like either like a tiki tack. I fine now here's one hundred thousand, one million dollar five. You could have done a Better job here here ah and that's just part of business.

So i'm guessing that's what this is gonna be some take atack a little thing where somebody signed up. Now there should be some buffers around the whales in the system when we started this. Any walls in the system, the percentage wells, the protocols you're using, I know they use a specific protocol, the U.

M. A protocol here, the transparency, all that stuff should be above board. And people should know what's going on in these marketplaces because I do think any system that could be abused will be abused.

And mark manipulation would probably be not foreign actors, more likely foreign actors looking to make money. So at times when foregone actors get involved in this, what people forget is sometimes they are from regions where the foreign actors are like the mafia in that country, and they like money. And a lot of the hacking that occurs is more about money than the nation state. And the nation state allows these hacking groups to use hacking to make money, and then they get to use them also for other nefarious things like hacking into a political candidates, you know, gmail, which they did, I think for jay events and a trump ed this time around and in none of the press would print those hacks IT am I correct that?

That's how that one can um stain some like that um did posted and ironically guns in trouble uh with social media bosses uh but I think we now have kind of decided that nation state based hacky material's probable shouldn't be used. Um I have various conflicting views about that. Be on one hand availability of information, on the other hand, rewarding in foreign actors.

It's it's dici, but I do think we're going to learn a lot more here. And just to wrap this up, the U. S.

Changes office and the FBI as of the time we compile our notes. But I would go had not commented. So more to come here.

We will be tracking the story. We will talk about IT more. And if this is political, metaline into poy market will call IT out as such. But I agree with Jason. I think this is going to be something much more to ketcher .

and regular to talk IT on in tomorrow, the dock tomorrow. So if you want to hear, the best is as well. I'm going to this conversation all over tomorrow.

all right. I just just to wrap up this week. I want in with kind of a good old fashion, start up top because this is this, we can startups. And you and I both read through the latest y commodity request for startups.

They put this under the banner of its the golden age for a building and just quoting from them IT seems like we, in a golden age of building, and we use IT to build things and make the country Better. So to me, very much wrapped up in that mental of american dynamism. And I think it's a medium good list, but a little bit less out there than I expected. Uh, how do you want to do this? Do I need to tell you what i'm thinking?

You want to take the first step at this? Um okay. So why see requested startups? And this means, hey, if you don't have an idea here, some places you might go look around to you don't market is basically.

And so just to give people some contacts, why come manager an accelerator? We have an accelerator as well as called the launch accelerator. And sometimes founders come and they have skills, you have a team, but they're not sure exactly where to look for an opportunity.

So sometimes this skin just creaative vely get the juices flowing. And so here we are. Um I think, baby, tell me, what are we do this? You tell me which one you think is got the most potential to build a unique startup p and then i'll give you which one I think has the most potential.

Okay, that's really tough because I have I have several favorite special pick amongst my children, and I will put stable coins in the number two spot, and i'll put space companies on top.

okay? So you get space companies and stable coin. So let's start with space companies. Um some of the bullet points here are say capitalized on ten ex launched cost reductions.

Okay, we know that that's what space that is unable you can get things into space. This is a continuing discussion. There's tons of companies already uh, build businesses around satellite applications.

Okay, satellite are already up there. You build the business around the existing infrastructure, create infrastructure for routine SpaceX? yes.

okay. So I think this is an interesting idea. It's kind of in the review mirror already.

I think founders already know about IT on stable coins. You have built business focus, stable coin management platforms. Okay, platforms that allow you to use stable coins within the business.

Is another words strike for stable coins interesting? Um I think if it's gonna a strike for stable going trip is gonna watch IT. I think we're going to see coin by strike.

Robin hood I don't have inside information on, but I wouldn't be surprised if every fin tech company has their own belt in stable coin. Nf acx was working on one um develop easy integration tools for developers, focus on cross water payments and riah. These are all interesting.

Um I take IT though you're not not do about my choices.

I I think maybe i'm a little jed because I mean this business that I think these are obvious um space and stable points. But I I think stable points is actually probably more interesting than space because I think space everybody's A I haven't really thought about stable coins. Two point out, first time I ever ever heard some may say stable points. Two point o tell me what your thoughts are unstable since I find that a fascinating place for startups to be built. okay.

So if you, uh, aren't familiar, stable coins are digital currencies that are pegged to a specific fio currency. Mostly, Jason, on this is the dollar. It's by far the most popular stable coin peg and so means you can buy a token in that is worth a dollar and you can exchange IT back for a dollar.

So these anis specifically take actual currency, hand out digital token ins and and reserves, make a lot of people we've germy already on the program. I think several times they can build big businesses. Very cool.

That's all. Stable coins, one doto. I think what happens with stable coin's? Two daughter u is we begin to see other countries that have their own currencies lose their local primacy.

And by that, I mean, once you will let people around the world anywhere execute their financial life in dollars, they're going to it's more stable, it's more accepted. And so I think stable coins two point out are the startups that are in developing markets that bring broad access to the dollar or perhaps the europe C A. Currency to the local market and disrupt entire economies that are currently Priced in the local currency.

So to me that the the possibility here is it's getting people a Better currency digitally across the internet and is going be a lot of business applications for that, both locally and in terms of connection them to the broader U. S. economy. So I think it's bullish for bush, for smaller consumers and this can be a logical detect there. So I know IT IT feels very democratising.

Yeah I mean IT IT does feel like IT will lower fees when you transfer money around and uh for places in frontier or emerging markets where you have uh, destabilized currencies, some might not do that happening to the united states. IT seems like an interesting place to a look for idea. So I I do like that one as an idea.

Um I think the reason why the red of discussion, the hacker news discussions were a little bit um negative. I notice some negativity uh when we look at some of the threads and people talking about IT, just probably. Is because some of this is obvious.

I think a lot of these are obvious. Um let's go through some of the other ones. I do you think stable ends in interesting when government software and I D automate government administrative test target logical Operations like foreigner cession application reviews.

I mean, all this stuff has been going along. So solutions for citizen facing services, dmv permits and licence. I think all these are interesting ideas.

When I was in the middle east, government software was a very top down, high order bit in saudi and U. A. E. In other words, the honorable rulers of those countries had said, they had basically said to anybody working in government make this more efficient, or you're out and you lose your job, I want to see massive efficiency. So it's an obvious one.

And maybe with dogs and people saying, you know, that is actually some really good advice, is that maybe selling into these will be less about corruption and more about efficiency and saving dollars. And when you say, I have a way for making renewing licenses ten times cheaper and twice to secure, maybe the vake will tweet that and maybe you almost a good idea. And then are of a sudden you've got the public saying, yeah, I would rather use that system where I take out my phone, I make a video of myself saying, this is Jason alicante.

I live at this address. I want my driver's license. Here's a picture of my license plate. And you know, i'm OK with you stamp the location of where I am right now and you putting this into a database. And that would be a more secure way of getting a driver's license.

I supposed to putting a forman and then you've got a video of me asking for my drug. I'm just spin here, folks but that would be harder to fake, right? Uh, and me actually making a video of my license plate and having A I processed that video where made bombs of my license, played my vin number, all that stuff could be in a video.

I submit the video AI process IT frame by frame. IT knows who I am and IT makes me a driver's license and does my registration from a video. Pretty interesting, pretty interesting. So I like that one a lot.

You are going to add, well, no, I just I think it's a great idea, especially because I look, government is what we do together, but no one's gone to the dmv and left enthusiastic about how IT works. So I think if we can apply software and start to that, that's great. I'm a little skeptical at th Epace o f f ederal p rocurement a nd h ow t hat w ill i mpact s tart u p g rowth c urves. But press, we are moving onto a new a new era, but that's a cool one, boring but possibly useful. But again, just to your point, a little bit of this.

yeah public safety technology. I like this one advanced computer vision, developed privacy preserving surveilLance, have talked on the show about density that I O one of the things that I got wrong about density when I made that investment was I constantly talk to be a kid with for the camera, and they like privacy. People don't want to have a camera over them, you know, at their office and am not fair enough.

But I go to officers and there's cameras in the hall ways you can account the people there you're like you can it's creepy. Nobody wants IT. And then certainly in airbnb, nobody wants IT.

As we've seen you can get arrested for putting hinton cameras in. The people do um the waffle uh that little people counter you know having that there's there's a version of that for sound. I got pitched on a company that has a thing that plays into the wall and IT just records to the sound level and not recording what you're doing.

It's just recording disciples. And when you make a product like that and has on IT what he does and what IT doesn't do and it's from a company, you know you can be like, okay, that's a Better way to do IT because I can take a picture of that ibb is said, hey, this is this doesn't record you, but IT does do sound levels. If the sound in a space, if you put IT outside, even Better, and people know it's there, if you knew the sound level was too high for the neighborhood and you hit a hundred disciples and IT just sends attacks, the disable reader outside on the porch doesn't record you is from this company.

A text message is in the email IT is from that company and that companies emAiling the host and the guest through the API. You just hit one hundred ten desks. Can you turn IT down? That's gonna save a lot of agent, whatever. So I like that privacy enabled stuff. Very.

very good for their parents. Go away for week a of the yes. And then they turn the music a little bit. And then I text their parents and school .

I had in my testers. Now if the tesla goes above ninety miles an hour, I have a set to speed limit at like eighty five whatever, plus ten whatever the speed limit is. And IT sends an alert.

So only two people driving these cars. If I go too fast, my wife knows. If he goes too fast, I get alert is just a way of like putting some you if you measure, you can manage IT.

I don't want anybody dying. I wants to keep my family around. So that's like a great way where you can put some rules on yourself to maintain some you know uh, a lack of speeding in your family. And certainly, if when my kids start drive, you have ever do, I don't want them going above the speed limit, more than five, ten miles an hour. So great.

How do, how do you square the the texas ethos, the iho, lone star woo, and you and I wanted to keep our kids alive because I feel like there, you and I at times had this libertine. And those adults be able to do what they want. It's their money.

It's their time. And then we talk about like, you know, limit on cars and sound and such. And so does this all hinge on the age of or essentially because I don't .

think eighteen, there's opting into IT, right? So if you in both examples i'm giving this is me opting into IT, right? I have an arb B.

I decided in an arb b that has rules around sound um and I decided my car to do that. Now on the public roads, I think you could have a reasonable discussion as to what the speed limit is on public roads because that's shared. And i'm fine with eighty five months an hour as the upper speed limit.

I would like to see cars if we're going to, if i'm going to live, if I was going to live in a state with, you know, really high upper limit. I think a way to do that, and we have the technology do that, is if you want to go one hundred months or really fast, IT has to be uncertain. Highways, straightaways, acta and IT has to be the left lane.

And there has to be some left lane rules. And you have to be a car that hit a certain standards, A B S breaks, you know uh certain tire, certain maintenance and maybe certain insurance. So that would be a way you know to take liberian values and um you know a shared interest in each other.

Maybe you have to pay more insurance to have to go that fast. Maybe you have to have an easy pass that you pay a certain amount to go that faster. Could be some creative solutions .

there in the technology enable. So kind of, I hope so. I have to go to back resting the most compelling. So I mean, put into you which one of these really you big caso.

okay, the one that I was perplexed and which mean when you're confused by what the person actually means, that that means there might be something there. So whoever put one million jobs who point sustainable, human centric job platforms, focus on jobs that A I can't replace, build tools for independent business owners.

I kind like this one built three independent business owners by way that stripe that's hub spot, uh, small business owners that, uh, fresh book, you know anything that helps somebody be a company of one or two or three um I think is a really smart idea. So freeLance nation, something we talked about twenty years ago, what happened because of the internet. It's happening today.

Um and then maybe aggregating in the way uber has. Uber is now as much a platform for transporting stuff as IT is a platform for war. An on demand were.

So they have now started doing kind of like an assistant in uber. Uh, this is a uber product. So anyway, there was um like uber for retail workers.

So there was an experiment I believe in florida. Dara talked about IT on a in recent earnings. All the concept is very simply, you need somebody for thirty forty box an hour to help you with household tasks or business tasks.

So you are we tell out, you need to cashier, need somebody to agree to. You could go into uber and order one for forty box an hour. Uber takes twenty five percent.

They take ten box an hour. You get somebody for thirty box an hour. So if you needed somebody for a week at your restaurant to be the major day, the greater you could just order that from uber for a shifter, too.

And those like on demand work platforms as a couple of different ones out there that sort people into buckets. And there's many of them doing retail right now. There's many of them helping uh, with the stuff we have one hay higher, which helps hire people for uh, jobs in retail. And they are doing very well actually based or in Austin, texas, there's a bunch of different platforms there. So I do like that when .

the best thing thing okay. Well, I think that's kind of a concern. I thought you were going to go for um the elephants were chip design because what they're discussing in that particular ability point is, is exciting to be lower energy, high performance, but that's optimistic.

I just looked up fiver, Jason. F I V R R public year there worth one billion. You should just get there by them and then just melt that into and then taught all huge demand. And therefore, uber is much more a platform for work than just having people bring me berdos and donate in the morning.

Well, you know, five or is an interesting company because IT was worth the market, catt, it's worth twenty eight dollars to share. But during serve, if you look at that man, he had just boomed. So right now, its market cap is one billion, but I it's market cap is like ten million at one point, have been a lot of fear that AI and generate A I specifically would kill that company.

And if you look their peak valuation was in twenty twenty one, if you look at a five year chart and what. Date was ChatGPT three point five launch ChatGPT three point five was launched on of proof twenty twenty two. And so I think that's where iconic went into the public consciousness.

So I know I think they got hit pretty hard since twenty twenty two, but november twenty, twenty two, IT was trading yeah, I was trading at thirty five dollars. So it's actually the same. But I do think, you know, maybe that's the peaks erra, but I do think the LLM started to make people think that freeLancers on a marketplace like that, we get less work.

I think it's gonna the opposite. I don't know what the revenue is. I think what's happening is of a place like fire is going to become more valuable because it's going to be your you're onna, hire somebody using A I and the Prices will go down and say built for you, go up.

And I think the quality level, I think the number one thing of any gig platform, whether it's five or or there's a couple of other competitions to IT for coating and further things. sure. The the issue has always been quality level is IT gonna be really good quality.

And I think those people using LLM general A I copilot is going to make the quality go up to the level that more people will use IT. That's the only complaint ever heard about a five was variable quality. yeah. And now I think we're going to have something completely different.

We're going to be a high quality. I acted by the talk. I maybe they could bring the thing that I want if I were doing that uber feature request is I want to be able to higher I driver four at a five hour period.

You can be over by hour, exist in a lot of markets. I use IT all the time. I don't want to give this hand yeah uber hour least two hours for a driver um and IT is called um oh .

my god yeah uber .

arly IT exists. Change my life okay yeah. So the reason I do this is I got to hate to get this step. But you know how at some airports you have to walk a mile to get to the right cheering area?

Yes, IT turns out .

Austin is one of those. What I do is I order an uber for two hours. And when I get off my flight, I have the uber for two hours.

I'm not that i'm under an hour from the airport like me be a half hour. So I have IT for two hours. I text the person, I say, hey, listen, i'm coming in.

I'm landing at this time. I like you to pick me up at departures, not arrivals. Pick me up with departures. I'll sit in the front seat.

We can pretend our friends did, did the lip and going to stop and pick up dinner on the way home or whatever. And I will stop and i'll do a little shopping at the grocery store. Stop by central market, by the airport.

Really beautiful, a like nice whole foods plus kind of store. I pick up some stuff for dinner, whatever. I do a little shopping, or I have dinner with the family, but I have the driver waiting for me, and then I take at home for the rest of the way.

But IT turns out it's only twenty dollars more for a two hour uber black. And IT is for the uber black to my house. So I just tell the driver like i'm doing this because I want to get picked up at the gate or at the curb and and I might do a stop on the way home to pick something up. But i'm probably using for an hour or not too, so considered red the extra hour I pay for the tip really like yes, i'm not going to usual for the full two hours.

but it's a great service. No, i'm going to use the heck at this because I often want to go to concerts up in and I I hate driving and my wife does not appreciate heavy metal and your children in at home. So I would love something just OK.

I don't know if IT existing you're market, but IT exists and they're testing in other markets. If this was one of the discussions I had with dara one point, which was, uh, adjacent markets do really well for them. And like things that are pretty far away, you know, maybe it's a little bit more difficult.

So adding our is like a really easy ad to build the product and IT alliance with the core product. And those things get massive adoption. And so I think that's the journey they're on, is adding like quick Jessen cie and getting massive adoption. So convenient source, uh, which I think was what was the start up go .

puff up like .

getting the go path features, I think which they did for convenience stores. And they have like I think they've tested like uber s own version of pop up, which is like an uber outlet store where they have their own stuff and they get to your oque. But they also did a deal, I think, with seminal eleven C V S and wall Greens.

And those things are everywhere. So is why I think uber under value in some ways, is they because of their lightweight model. And you have someone like walGreens, mcDonalds and starbucks embracing uber, which people said they never would and now they have.

And I believe some of the services like go puff, I think when I was in new york, go puff was an option on u. So that's kind of interesting, strange bedfellows. Remember, we talked about competition the other day.

And if you are gop of and uber has many ubs and gordian have many, many more customers than you, and you already have a store front in manhadoes, why not let them place their order and give you know uber or dordick a little bit of percentage and get more customers from your gopala store? And for uber, like, okay, we're marketing go puff, but who cares? We have C, V, S in here. We have wall grains. Why look at go puff any differently than we look at our own conversion source or cvs and seven lesson yeah .

i'd also if you're doing IT on the uber APP, uber owns the customer gop off doesn't.

So I think that makes a lot sense if I to say I put IT, it's awesome to inspire people, but you ve got to come up with an idea that you personally really want to work on for ten years. So keep that in mind. I don't advise founders take my list of request, or any VC or any accelerators list, and start there, start with something that matters personally to you.

If you can find something that persons matters in your team, I think these lists are great for brain storming. Yeah so the way we just debated IT, maybe you can get your juices flowing by going to this. So I think this list do serve that purpose, but it's gotta something like you don't want to create like a space company because you to get into y combination, create spacetime because you really are going to wake up on day two thousand more excited than you are on day two or two hundred years.

And if you do something because A V C is interesting in IT, what you're going to be doing is you're going to be a building a product that you're going to wake up one day and not want to go to work to build. So just this is an important coffee out there. No, no, dick to, I see.

great. less. I've made this kind of st before.

absolutely. I think they even say, you know, you don't have to be doing anything on this list, but here's some stuff that we're excited about I want to talk about and I think to have more conversations about IT. Alright, Jason, uh, we're going to leave IT there for today.

We've done a lot of live news shows this week. We have more coming next week. He is at Jason over on ex.

My name is adults. I'm over on as as well. And we will see next .

week bye bye.