TWiST News: AI in Gaming, Nvidia and GPU Clouds, Nuclear Energy Challenges, and Waymo Updates | E2038
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I wasn't aware of the b story, but I think we need to be thought all about this. This could come back and sting us if we don't stop buzzing around the issue and get to the heart of IT, which is whatever happens to this specific type of b. Could the b be moved?

I mean to be or not to be that is made us question ah, but there's other I didn't I knew if we were not the B A in here for a long time. Stuck in honey .

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But everybody, welcome back to this week in startups with me again. Alex will home. How are you? Your weekends are.

you know, Jason, uh, my weekend was actually very rough. I'm not going to lie orn h is going to a period .

of college .

no and has so uh going to work today. He'd actually been lovely. It's been a respect from a just really yes, this weekend was really hard and not a lot and and so sorry.

well, you know here's a thing. You know this since you have an older one is that IT gets easier and easier. And you forgot, didn't you, how hard IT is? I eventually forgot between the first in the second.

I think this one is so we won't started off. Our new baby was easier than her first baby now. Now she's definitely harder.

So it's it's kind of a mixed bag. But uh, apparently collie peaks around three months, so it'll get easier a bit. I'm just glad to be back at work.

Yeah, well, uh, I hope mumm's doing well. Good luck to the baby. Uh, it's part of growing up.

H you'll get through IT. You'll just have a lack of sleep. But don't worry, I will Carry the show today.

We've got a full docket. I've been there, my man and eight years removed from at my Youngest or eight year old twins. Ah and it's so great to see all of the live viewers are for people who don't know.

Alex and I decided we would do this show live. So we go to, uh twitter slash x and you follow T W I startups or you go to youtube and you follow the show on youtube. You can watch the show live monday wedges day on friday twelve central time, which is one.

P M alex time also known as eastern time. N M pacific time known as silicon valley time. So tent twelve one, whatever your jam is, join us.

And uh, if you're hearing this on the podcasting am, you gonna get the same show except, uh, we clean IT up a little bit in post production. So if you like, we we stumble. We try to pull lings up.

But it's kind of fun. It's like washing a little bit of C, M, B, C. We're onna look you in next year to monday, wednesday, friday shows. And we're getting close there.

aren't we know we're getting words. We're getting very close. In fact, we're doing, I think, more shows, uh, right now that we have all a year. And I got to say how many long having a lot of one and and I I think today and we can provide people with a little bit of a respect from the other thing that's going on tomorrow.

tomorrow's the election. Yeah, i've spent the weekend and since we for the last two weeks, i've been trying to understand and we'll leave this in the shop because I think it's important for all americans to understand election security in amErica what could be Better and what the reality is and what you're going to see for the next week or two, and hopefully not much longer than that, is a bunch of people are wing, fighting, sharing media about how insecure our elections are.

And I take this as a positive, alex, because we have so much more tiny on the fifty different disparate systems also on as our states, uh, it's basically resulting in the election system getting tighter and Better. Every year, thirty five, about a fifty states have voted ID laws watermark ballots and are essentially impossible to game at scale. And that's the important cavy on here.

If you are worried about the national election for your candidate, whoever a god and is fifty fifty right now, respect to everybody for their choices um you know even if I I might disagree with one of them, that's that's amErica but the good news alex is is even in your sleep to protect rough weekend state, you can cognitively understand that the lowest swing state is thirteen thousand votes, and that is georgia. Into swing georgia, we take thirteen thousand big ideas, fake ballots, and some number of people to go execute against that plan is IT possible. no.

Uh, could people see and do a hundred or two hundred or maybe even five hundred? Sure, I guess, but it's extremely hard to do that. And so I have been fighting the good fight on I know you may have seen the .

entire I I actually IT was funny is day and i'm now associated with you, in a way, haven't been before. And so i'm catching your twitter strays pretty consistently. And you have picked the single most thankless political position and media job in the history of mankind. And I was, I was gonna attack you this, but all just do IT live. I I wanna give you like to three points for being on all in your other show, and which I I would say the majority of the hosts there have one particulars view.

Yeah and you have .

not gone along with them because you're having your own view, which I think is very respectable but you're take a lot of flag for IT from, I think, every single ci because some people think you are squish on the right or your too conservative for the left and IT seems that you don't have that many friends and allies so i'll say ten points Jessen for six to your guns.

I I literally have the left telling me that i'm a cell out for the right, and I have the right telling me that I have trumped arrangements in red, which to me is the greatest compliment ever, because I believe that both parties have been hijacked by the fringing es, I think that's pretty obvious. And I don't like either candidate. I'm sorry, i'm gona just stick to my guns.

I don't like either candidate. I don't like how either parties behaving. And I do think amErica will survive either candidate. For me, the number one issue is the spending.

And I guarantee you, alex, if you want to make a bet, let's see if you'll take the bet over under nine trillion dollars more at the end of this ah you know term the next four years twenty, twenty five to two thousand and twenty eight at the end of the next presidential term, we will have nine trillion dollars added to our national debt which is basically the average of the last two years which we ve added about sixteen, seven, eighty what IT winds up at, but basically eight to nine trillion is what each president has done in the press. Two, I think we will be sitting here in four years with nine trillion more in national debt. You take the over the under.

I think, and I don't like the sensor.

I'd take the over on that OK. So for me, I think we're gona wind up in the same exact situation we've been in, which is we're gonna bankrupt this country if we don't change IT. And I I hope I hope the one good thing for me that could come out of the trump a trump win would be if dosh, the department of government efficiency actually happened I mean, independent of how I feel about that would be an amazing thing so I hope that happens.

Um and you know, I hope you all vote and I hope your vote counts. Yes, you know that I think every american should want that for every other american. Hate to be captain nuance here, but I hope everybody's vote counts. And I hope you do vote yeah .

if you don't vote, don't call you know I may take part. If you don't vote, you don't get to complain, how to say and then complain, but do not have to say and then complain. That thing I can't stand uh but if you're not the rest, you're probably saying, dear god, just and alex, I know you're trying to keep you to in to them, but move on so i'm going to do that just for the think of our european, african, asian and american.

So just on the show today, a video, sorry, A I generated video game, it's going to borrow your mind and then talk about in video being once in the most popular and most viable company in the world, and the notes on GPU clouds that are very interesting. Then what the hell going on in nuclear power for aix IT is a bit of a mess. And then finally, if we have time, I have the latest numbers from california regarding way mos self driving ride growth. So part like to .

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But first, this isn't i'm going to pull a Sunny and i'm going to give you an A I del here.

love.

And I wanted know how you heard of a company called the art dear.

I have not okay, so the decent, but it's not even spell like decor.

the philosophy. It's literally D E C A R T. So there's many jokes. Um IT was the even new thing about oasis. Oasis is a playable, real time open world A I model. What that means is IT generates a minecraft style game frame by frame.

So this is a literally A I model that auto generating the game as you interact with IT, which I think is pretty cool. And we have a video that we took all of steward from the production team playing this earlier today so we can avoid. There's a big weight list for this.

I'll will tell you why in the second. But Jason, this is what IT looks like. This is the current state of the yard. If you OK go, stewards gona pick mountain metals, and we will be transported through this warm hole types. And if if you're on the audio of this looks like minecraft IT IT looks very solar to minecraft and IT takes Normal inputs. So just first thoughts of the graphical fidelity.

What do you see here? Um okay. So IT looks like my kids are playing minecraft on their ipad, uh or we're playing doom or quake twenty years or twenty five years ago.

And you're saying this world and the game itself was generated by A I. yes. So the A I engine .

is taking the inputs from the player and the information that IT has and we and building the game around you as you play. This is really cool, but he also has some drawbacks. One thing IT doesn't seem to have right now is any idea of permanent.

So steward, who played this for us, take a dickle. The video is, if we just gna turn around and what is behind him is not at all what was behind him before. And every time he turns around IT regenerates the world.

But those, this is a principle brand new. If watch the video, this wasn't there before. That's all new, right? But oh my god, Jason, we can now do this with all the shelf ish technology.

And I think this is going to be in two years. absolutely. I S I was going.

I mean, this is, I think what people believe using a computer will be like in the future, which is to say, instead of downloading apps, you'll talk to an A I and I will build the APP in real time for you so you'll say, you know, I really like age of the employers. I like a real time strategy game, but i'd like IT to be based on know pictures from my photo album of my extended family.

And can you please invite them and then I will just generate that for you just like, great. Now you can go in there and say, hey, i'm doing some research on voter irregularities. Can you give me a bunch of information? And when I was actually doing my research on all the voter stuff, I was using ChatGPT claude h.

Gi and then having a check facts. And it's pretty interesting how we're getting closer now you know, every six months in duration to the hallucination and the accuracy issue, I say it's resolving itself, but it's slowly getting back. And so I feel like the citations, i'm seeing them more often and um yeah I this could be one of these moments where you know if if you think about what we just witnessed the fidelity of IT, imagine also describing, I really love star wars and these three characters are meaningful to me.

Can you make me an episode of the mandolin that occurs between these two episodes? And you make IT super spicy and interesting for me in these ways. And I want dark mall to show up. This could be the future of netlik and other platforms, whether its games, music, more here, you know here games, but I could be music and you could see this happening on netflix or disney's APP as well.

I I want to show one one more thing you leave at short, jon, showing the um number of unique users who have played the game that I just showed you. And it's a chart that every VC loves to see because IT just goes in one direction. So here is the accusative unique users that have played this oasis is game from the card. This is very impressive. So one million unique users in less than four days.

eventually, I believe. And I wrote a short story back in, like the late nineties, early two thousand, when I was a journalist. I very short story. I got to find IT on one of my own laptops and the story basically a revolves around a kid who made a piece of software that a billion people downloaded and paid a dollar for.

He made a billion dollars overnight and he was in his bank account and IT was all in e cash uh, and I think actually that concept is something we're going to see in our lifetime, which is somebody makes something on the internet. A billion people see IT. We've seen IT with songs like baby shark.

We've seen IT with viral memes like David goes to dentist and stuff like that. But it's an only a matter of time before I start up does that same thing. And I think that's the great hope for venture capital today in Angel investing.

Is that what you are seeing there? And it's really great that you talk about us a new venture capital. Go, go away.

The second, how that how many people did IT hit seventy nine hours? Did say, what was the number? Uh.

in the past one million unique users in three days and seven hours?

amazing. You know. And you think about what facebook took to do that probably a year or myspace, probably two years. You know, IT takes a while to get a million people to do anything. But this is the world we will be living in. An a large portion of this is because of the platforms that are out there that are already at scale to share of these things. So this probably when viral on some combination of redit, twitter, instagram, set a tiktok yeah and um this is our future, is somebody like, gosh, I don't want to say up but the girl who had a on the street interview and became very famous.

yes, I recall that situation yes.

And then then he has a podcast now named after her. Cash rates like this is what the future is, instant. And if those million people pay ten dollars each, imagine like that kind of the next card to turn over here is a group of people releasing these things on tiktok.

So as a strategy for startups, I think particular way here is if you make something compelling package IT over and over and over again in tiktok tweets, you know, other viral formats and share and over and over and over again and see if you can catch fire. And if you do, you could eliminate around a funding. You could literally get ready of your series a and not dilute twenty percent and just go to series b.

How do I know this? I had a company we invested in um and I called them an alico N A euro orn with pegs as wings and that was calm. Come back, come to the seed around the next thing I knew they did like a two hundred fifty million round. They never did that series a in between. And what they did to the captain was, instead of everybody taking twenty percent dilution and having to go on a fun raising tour, the APP had they had just figured out paid marketing really well and calm just surged from, you know, a couple of hundred thousand in revenue, you to tens of millions without doing, I deluded financing round. Uh.

one last start about this one though, just to add to the start of story you're telling, Jason. So h company that made the oasis model is working with edged, which is a twenty five hundred company that's building process uh chips that are transformer specific. So literally all these trips can do is due transformer stuff.

Now always, this was not running on edged hardware yet, but the companies did say that win h transformer asic does come out. This will run in a 4k resolution。 So we'll see you again when edge has a hard work out. But cool to see a hardware start up and a software start up working together to make, uh, hit A I products.

if you will. I think I saw runway A I another one of these cool AI companies and maybe our producers will find IT before the show ends. They had to in their model for doing video um the ability to change the camera angle in real time. And I know if you saw that of viral, but that to me was a revelation because all of these A I video creation tools were doing five seconds and you couldn't really change IT right if you got any a video and then you asked IT with the same problem to make another video would make something completely different. There was no uh, provenance for ability to edit IT uh and iterate on IT which makes IT worthless IT unless IT happens to hit her home run the first time yeah ability to say, hey, changed the angle on this or lets do you know a pan tit zoo m this direction that actually makes IT usable. So I think we're very quickly um getting over the constraints that the software had in the GPU processing had in the limits of the amount of hardware that was out there from, uh, where do they call them um neo .

server or new clouds.

And so here IT is this is I think, runway j alpha and what you're seeing is IT made you know these beautiful images, but then um you can actually go in and change the viewing angle. And that's really like a new concept here, being able to actually take what A I is building and actually use IT in hollywood. Yeah.

because i'm not impressed with these five second clips. Everyone is like, oh my god, this look at this five second, you know, clip that looks like a marvel movie and like, okay, cool one, do again have some fell between shots and actually sitch things together. That's what i've been waiting for. So I hope this is a moving to that direction, because in theory, I do want to be all to say, you know, make me a marble movie, but with myself as cap in america, because i'm so handsome and strong.

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I want to talk about in video um i'm a public markets notice and you know that and in video once again took the absolute top spot and as the most viable public market company in the world I have a screen shot of this they be apple, microsoft on aramco and meta, the other leaders with the market cap of just about three point for million dollars. Now the context here in the reason why I want to bring this up to our start of audience is that there's some stuff that goes into this one element is that invidia is going to replace intel on the dow jone's industrial average, which is kind of like, I don't know, a coming of age moment for a company like when you reach the d gia. You really made IT.

yeah. IT is an honor to be in those indexes, there are know only a certain number of slot. One person comes in, somebody has to get dropped off the list. I remember when IT happened to uber, IT was a big deal. And you know there is some programatic buying that occurs in index is obviously you buy an index fund, as we've always talked about, you a fan of them, low fee index funds a really great way to compound wealth. Then you have people programmatically buying your sock IT just builds the base of people.

The undercurrent i'm hearing um which was in the financial times two day was and and this is something we've talked about on this pocket last year and we talked about on all in as well, is the concept of Brown tripping and conflicted transactions. And how in videos baLance sheet is shopping. Yeah no， it's important to say this is all speculation, but there is a group of people speculating that this is a house of cards and that there are accounting irregularity at in video.

Yes.

i'm not saying that, but this is a buzzy undertone. So how insane is this that the world's number one company there is now this undercurrent of, is this a house of cards? And is there is something funky going on here? So maybe you could unpack where this thread is coming from, uh, and why people are starting to.

I guess it's kind like the tesla moving when they added the Q I. I don't think anybody shorting in video here that would be a crazy thing to, but there was this sort of like anti tesla movement that occurred for a while because the sock was pretty high, and you know, people didn't believe they we're gonna get, you know, a cheap car on the road. Of course, they have another best selling car, I think.

is the model y cheaper than the model three?

I think it's a little bit more. It's like the at version of IT. So the model three is a little bit sporty and has a trunk.

The model y has a hatched back in, is like a little bit bigger. So if you're taller and you want more room and you want more storage, you go out to why? If you want something zippy with a trunk and not a hatched back, I think you go with the okay.

that helps a lot. Because I see three and wise a lot and I the wise the one is stretched like this yeah .

a little bit Better, a little bit befel. It's a befel version. Let's go through this because I think it's important when these kind of allegations start coming up that we we kind of just understand what the underpinnings here are.

okay. So there's a thread that we're talking about here. Am I going have the thread uh upon the screen? We will also link to IT in the the video and the showed tes if you want to follow along you can this is from um and cash scrim and he has three ideas about how in video might be, let's just say, buttering up its investors by telling the things they want to hear.

So the first thing he brings up is that invidia might be essentially giving out sales rebates but then booking that separately. So IT doesn't actually impact net revenue. And the argument here is that this will show up, up under the baLanced item, prepaid expenses and other current assets.

So Jason, I went through nvidia's last earnings reports, I went through their earnings transcripts, and I try to find anything interesting about prepaid expenses and other current assets. Basically nothing not in to see if a commentary not in the Q N. A.

Not much. The thing that I did notice here is that the amount of prepaid expenses and other current assets video is pretty small compared with overall scale. And I think most importantly, as you see from this chart has leveled off.

So this is not going vertical still. It's decelerated. And so to me, I don't think there's enough here to actually be smoke hinting a fire got IT.

Uh, and so I have seen entrepreneurs do this before. They will tell us that have a certain amount of revenue and they have a certain cost of goods cogs, you know, and we kind of net IT out and then we find out that they're discounting their product and that comes up on another line item where they you know let's say that this product cost ten thousand a year. Um it's about a thousand a month, whatever, ten thousand a year for customer.

Sure, some SaaS product, but they're actually giving the sales people the ability to discount IT uh, for five thousand a year. So they say they have a million dollars in top line revenue and the revenue is growing. But what we find in the last three months is that they had to discount the product fifty percent, sixty percent, seventy percent in order to hit their numbers.

So IT looks like the top line is still growing, but somebody y's getting a fifty or sixty or seventy percent discount and that's coming in a line in them later. So there are such a thing as discounts that can occur. You might image that with car sales where you know you sell IT for a certain amount and then there's a discount of stuff, all kinds of wear things.

I don't recommend people do this, just sell your product whatever you sell IT for. Don't play games with hiding discounts in other places. Because he creates the appearance of impropriety.

And what I learned early in my careers, the appearance of impropriety will, like we talked about with this minecraft game, the cart is making, you know, the same way that can go viral. Here you could have round tripping allegations or discounting go viral, which is what's happening right now. The next issue that I think is gonna come in to play with, there are multiple issues here when you have this discounting kind of thing.

The second is what is the lifespan of an h one hundred? And then people are giving loans to companies like core weave, a neos uh, cloud provider. And so this F T story was talking about just billions and billions of dollars in loans being given by private equity firms.

Two companies that are going public and then also in video, is investing in those companies while those companies are buying from them. And that is called round tripping. And then there is this house of cards in some people's mind where maybe we're going to build too much capacity like we did in the fiber error, like I talked about previously on the show, and that the floor will come out.

They'll be too many, each one hundreds, too much supply, too many new clouds available. And we'll see the cost for each one hundred, which I think was at eight dollars. This F.

T. Story said I was eight dollars an hour to use an h one hundred. Now it's down to two, so it's like seventy five percent cheaper, which is what you would expect. Things get cheaper and technology but know all these things coming together.

I don't know if it's a house of cards, but oversupply, the appearance around tripping this all could add up to you know maybe some classical c moment for in video, bright founders, are you tired of doing on your own software development? You need help, but you can't afford all this time he takes to find great talent. Are you dreading the end? Less interviews and email chains justifies somebody great to take six months.

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And great developers are so hard to find IT interpreted into your team unless you're using lemon that I O, because they handle all that for you. They only offer handpicked developers with three years of experience at a minimum, and they have to be in the top one percent of applicants. right? Something goes wrong.

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okay. So round tripping is a thing that comes up, I mean, honestly, every couple of years in technology. And Jason, this situation, we thought about this a lot in terms of microsoft investments in the OpenAI.

And the question was, are they giving the investment in the former of cloud credits? And then money goes out, unit comes back in, you basically take you know cash flow and turn them into revenue kind of cool IT, but is also dici. I've never actually sort about precisely wind.

This becomes illegal, if that makes sense, because some round driving is probably accidental. Um if you invest in the company, they buy a computer. If dell in us and Jason anon, ugo by and dell laptop, is that round street. But um where do you draw line on that actually?

Um I would say the way you would draw the line on IT is the scale. Does the scale hit anything material? And so let's take the open an AI example. Let's say microsoft invest ten billion in cash OpenAI. Okay, okay.

So now they have ten billion sitting in their bank accounts and then open a eye proceeds to buy five billion in cloud credits from microsoft in the next year and then another five billion a year after that. okay. So now you've got billions of dollars going back and forth between bank accounts.

If this was done in a core needed way, IT would be illegal. So if I to you like you have no need for this cloud, but I want you to do IT anyway, that's if it's not needed and necessary, then IT definitely doesn't pass the sniff test. I know this because there was a certain accelerator, which I won't name, because they constantly like to pretend their being bully, even though there the number one accelerator, there was a strategy inside the accelerator where the founders would buy each other software touring their coho ards.

So imagine you have two or three hundred companies, and twenty or thirty of them agree to buy each other software for the year and do IT in a coordinated fashion. You, by my side software, I buy yours and now do IT ten times and also some things, bro. This is easily found out by investors because we always assuring our diligence, tell us your top five clients right where you source them, we will have them literally will ask a founder to put this in the google.

And we train our founders to do IT. Hey, tell us about your five largest coins by dollar amount. Tell us by the five largest by engagement. In other words, how many people are using the software every day and putting in a gold sheet.

Tell us how you source them when they started paying in, how much they would ve paid every month and today and and also put the contracts that you have with those folks in in a drive. This is called due diligence. Startups, when they become past the seed in ancient stage, will be required to do this.

And seed investors putting in anything, let's call IT above two, fifty or five hundred will started diligence process. Why will they started diligence process? Because they are investing O, P.

And other people's money. And you invest other people's money, you are what's called the foot shary, and you have to do the diligence. You have a fiduciary responsibility to do that.

So don't get upset if like A V C S, you for utility gans folder, they have to make sure that they're not investing in F, G, X in their onus. And if you watch those examples, people did not do diligence. They they basically just said other people did diligence, all skip mine.

Uh, and then there are some defer ious founders who say you don't need to do diligent. Somebody else did IT that the major red flag, hey, if somebody else did diligence, you have to not a good approach to life. And so if you were in the same example of open the eye and microsoft, microsoft invests ten billion.

Nine billion of IT goes to salaries, marketing, whatever investment. And one billion up at ten percent, goes back to microsoft and microsoft cloud businesses. Fifty billion.

So it's but two percent of microsoft revenue. Yes, it's ten percent of the amount invested. You would be like a case pass as a snifter. If IT was five percent or ten percent of microsoft and they did that same technique five times, then you'd start going, huh? And I think the chAllenges in video has invested in multiple companies now, and that's where I think they are going to get either investigated if they haven't been already um or somebody seem to come in into diligence and there is just not worth that.

They should if they really feel they should be investing, they should give money to a venture capital firm that's dedicated to A I take a former employee of the video and start a venture firm that's a spin out where you put money in and they make the decisions outside of people buying eight, two 一点， that would be much Better hydrant because they could say, well, jensen isn't making these deal. So it's not like the sales team is selling IT, uh, and there is a corporate development person investing and it's the same conversation. So the proximity of these conversations is the other piece to your question of when is IT illegal. I know this because I worked at A O L chamont worked at A O L um we both saw this up close and personal. They were sales people who were selling people on um paying a well fifty million hours to be the default music provider and then .

A L L was also giving .

them fifty million dollars to invest in their company. And this round tripping scandal, you can type in a round tripping scandal and find out all about this resulted in, I believe, people going to jail and a bunch of sanctions IT didn't make this way, all the way to the top. And this is where a sales team and incentives matter. If the cells team, you know, runs a muck like this and they start trying to hit sales numbers and they get commissions, they will write fully due whatever IT takes IT to hit that in centre. And this is where a management needs to be on top of things and avoid the appearance of impropriety.

okay. So a couple thoughts about this. In the case of an video one, we have a charge from the same twitter though that we're talking about, illustrating the concern here.

This is round tripping in a single image. So scary, I think, does matter. And glad we got to that because I don't know if the numbers and question here really add up to the potential of our impropriety.

I do agree that core wave and lama and the other GPU clouds that are you borrowing up to eleven billion, as the ft. Said, are in the material money to in video, but in video is not underwriting the desk in question. So that's actually not a around shipping concern.

I do agree there is a hysteric point to be made about invidia investing in smaller companies and then having those companies purchase. It's hard where, but I just don't think the son is in questioning scale to the point I have been a concern to make a video, a cooker, house of cards and just a big that point kind of clear in videos. S biggest risk right now to me isn't A A A lack of financial, not hygiene ay, but just like clarity, but it's the massive dependence IT has on a couple of customers. So for example, uh customers A B C D and e and its uh S C C violence. These are new alphabets your microsoft, E R, amazon and so th um just the top four customers of the company in its last quarter were twenty five, thirty six, forty six percent of its um total revenue .

to five customers equal forty six percent .

top four customers.

four customers qual, yes. So yeah, you have to ask yourself, at some point, do they have enough a clusters to do the work they want to do?

Well, X, A, I put together what is up was the biggest, you know, G, P, U supercomputer, one hundred thousand eight, one hundreds. And in video was very proud of this. They were like, and they are going to double.

And one more point, i'm going to say this, uh going back to microsoft, uh, earnings call saw in IT a man who was putting a lot of these eggs in the AI basket 嗯， said that a the good news for us is that were not waiting for the inference I demand to show up if you sort of think about IT, this is going to the fastest growth to ten billion of any business in our history, and it's all inference. So I think there's a case to be made that the demand is is higher than they can supply. People are spending a lot to build of the capacity. There may be an overrun. I don't think we're in danger of a fiber .

collapse again, though. okay. They haven't. Um I at some point, you know the o will also be competitors and the march you will come out of these system. So oh yeah.

I don't know if I would put my money into a GPU cloud. I just visit. And I mean, here's what last thing just for the financial learning other, Jason, if I underwrote alone to you for five billion dollars, predicated on the fact you had purchased five billion dollars of invidia h one hundred ships and then black, well comes out their next generation, and suddenly those are .

worse a half yeah, yeah.

yes. So then to me it's it's a sketch way to under, right?

I don't know if I do that yeah so the life, what's the reasonable lifespan of these chips? You know, if you look at google servers or facebook servers when they put this large clusters, I I don't actually know the number of years that those computers were Operate, but I would think that would be six, seven, eight, nine, ten years.

I do know that when these computers and clusters would have a bad hard driver or a bad server, I was sold by the people who, architect of them, that IT wasn't worth going and finding the computer and removing IT from the ring, they just remote return the power off on those. So because like literally sending somebody there was like, okay, it's a thousand dollar server bly just turn IT off, which we ve been using IT for seven years. Just no more power to IT and we'll just turn me off.

And I think that's gonna be the real question is what is the lifespan of these? Will a be six, seven, eight, nine, ten years or will IT be one, two, three, four years? And then also the the software is getting more efficient. And so as software gets more efficient and you get more out of each GPU, which I think is a big focus right now, is writing software that maximizes the utilization of these G P S.

My understanding is in some cases, Sunny said, you know, you're using twenty, thirty, forty percent of the capacity of a GPU when you're running certain jobs and they could be more efficient, uh you know and how they move data and jobs success. So um definitely worse, keeping an eye on this and it's definitely worth startup s understanding that the impact of any financial uh, irregularities or appearance of irregularities and what we're probably dealing with here is this this is probably an appearance issue. I don't think some like jensen would take this kind of risk.

The companies already worth a trillion dollars to see me to optimize on the margin this way. I don't think so. So why would anybody take the risk? I could see sales people taking the risk and management turning a blind. I to IT at A L well, at the end of the empire. And that's where, like, maybe a house of cards could exist and their round tripping issues did a grass.

you know, a data point that I just thought of James about this is if you look at how in video is handled in shareholder return, its buyback scheme dule, how is handling cash supply IT all looks very opposit active ity, yeah. IT doesn't I when we work, win public, it's as one. Finally was a litter of obligations.

Would I read in videos numbers? They're impressive, but they don't. There's no bad smell in them that I can tell that. So there's something high in here. Bad yeah everyone just look at the number's yourself before .

and not doing and one stop doing the round tripping. That's one number one piece of advice. Take the round tripping out of this.

Just make a venture ARM commit one hundred million dollars year, a billion dollars year, whatever tickles your fancy and haven't run separately with an independent group and let them have Terry and management fees and and then take the gains, but don't let the cells team or the management at NVIDIA make the decisions of who to bet on while concurrently selling them product. That's the conflict internal right now. That is gonna make everybody bring this up over and over and over again. Yes.

you ever win junkin viral for having like thirty direct reports and how he he kind of did the founder mode argument before erbin. They did, if you will. You know, I wonder if you could get that past in because I think you, when I share a general vibe, was jenson and how he would approach his and yes, yeah, very high bar and he's very hands. That is theoretically a strong, bold work against the sales team getting into running on territory. yes.

Alright.

uh, let's move on to Jason. You want to talk about amazon and how their big deal for nuclear power has a hit a bit of a road block with a company called talents on curse. Why do .

you well yea, we're discussing not only how many chips you need for A I to process these jobs and hit super intelligence ah and solve the world's problems, but energy seems to be a blocker and consistent energy that doesn't burn out the grid and doesn't burn a hole of the ozone layer and burning carbon fossil fuels.

You know in order to make these great advances, IT seems to be um critically important and other countries um namely china are really big on nuclear and they're moving very quickly and they have top down um authority to just say we're doing IT here in the right states. You have regulatory bodies, you have citizen acedera who can have these you know major debates around uh, the refining or reopening of defund nuclear power plants in the building of new one. So I think is the most interesting part of the nuclear story here in amErica is that I don't hear people saying I don't want nuclear anymore.

I don't see master protests, and i'm actually seeing the opposite, which is people saying, hey, you won't be great if we didn't have a dependency on foreign oil and we had more consistent power. And you know what, I think we went on a complete diversion with the no nukes concert series and the hippies saying, this is not clean power and it's unsafe because of fukashiro your noble and three, my island, yeah. Which in total had under a thousand under one hundred debts associated directly with the meltdowns that occurred in those emergencies.

However, we would frame them. That to me feels like a sea change, but now there seems to be a blocker here. And maybe you could explain the thinking behind the blocker to microsoft buying basically energy from a nuclear power plane.

okay. So there's two stories that came out in the last couple of days about this. The first one was the meta. Uh, there has some plays to build an A I D, A center that was going to run on nuclear power. And IT appears even thwarted because there is a very rare type of bee on the land.

a bee like us in an insect.

I, rare species of b, yes, the insect goes in, flies around, stinks you. Now, I don't want to to pick the endangered species fight, but i'm gonna move this on to the amazon story. So amazon .

bought A, I wasn't aware of the b story, but I think we need to be claughton about this because this could come back and sting us at any moment if we don't, you know, stop buzzing around the issue and get to the heart of IT, which is, you know, whatever happens to this specific type of b, could the b be moved? Hundred eat, you know, one hundred yards passed where this is gonna be. And could they build a special sAnitary for bees, a Jason, to IT, and spend a billion dollars on saving these bees?

I mean, to be or not to be, that is not a question, but there's other I didn't I knew if we were on the b avenue. We did appear for a long time or stuck in honey. Amazon spent six hundred and fifty million dollars to buy a decor campus that was going to be next to the super facility in pennsylvania.

Now that owned by talent, talent um has a interconnection agreement with P J M. And I know everybody you don't care about, but i'm going to explain you and I had to learn and there was A A A proposal to increase the production as s bahana nuclear plan from three hundred to four hundred and eighty megas. Now this all came got squiring because of an interconnection agreement with other people.

So there's there's energy production. There is a grid and there is interconnection, and there is agreements and rules. But that fall down there.

The F E R C, the federal energy regulatory commission, just voted down a plan that would have allowed for more energy to be generated from three hundred to four hundred and eight megawatts, notably, Jason. And this was, to my surprise, I thought I would be democrats being opposed to something like this. IT was actually the important who voted against this and one democratic ted in favor of more capacity.

Uh, but IT all seems to be a little bit hard to pass out. I am not gona lie. I now read for the first time um these interconnection service agreements.

Are I essays and not next word in the law here? But it's a bad sign that this deal didn't work out the way people wanted to, because other groups, like consolation with microsoft, as mentioned, want to co locate data centers by nuclear facilities, cramp up the production, and then go to work IT gets weird when you talk about baseload power grid capacity and then, uh, if you're before or behind the meter. But this is still in overall, I think, bad note for the nuclear S N A. I moment.

Yeah, we're gna need to get some leadership here to explain to the local regulatory bodies that if we don't allow this type of arrangement where nuclear and data centres come together, um we're probably going to fall behind in the A I race to china and other places where uh they will allow this um to occur.

Now I do wonder if we could accomplish what people want to accomplish with nuclear by going into the desert, putting a lot of solar and a lot of batteries, which will be a lot obvious ly uh and trying to do the same thing with renewables and batteries. Ies, I don't know it's possible, but if anybody could do IT IT would be you on and will see. Well.

I am very optimistic about that, but with some variations because one I like all power walls give you a big battery pack, all high five, a company that we also have to twist, five hundreds called axa O Y. And they're doing solar linScott, solar panels. And they're doing heat base storage instead of electricity base storage, which apparently a lot of industrial applications.

So i'll take my solar panels along with my solar lenses is and I let him, I on next my iron batteries, next to my, you know, heat batteries. I like all of the above, but that includes nuclear. And so I M just disappointed that here we are seeing what seems to me to be a very technical conversation about grid load and who pays for interconnection, and is just some technical things that we should be able to get past to prevent what would be a coalition ted data by a effectively zero carbon powers.

humanity. I mean, guys, this is what we want. We be fighting to make that happen, not pissing a million about in your connection.

I mean, in turning yeah, burning natural gas and coal seems like a not great solution to this problem. The good news is, you know, one of the things I found is when in business is when there is a big prize, all the sudden people get very creative because there is a big prize and a lot of money at stake. And you know, that is what I suspect will happen here, is people with very big pockets like microsoft or OpenAI, or X A I or apple, google, alphabet, meta, because they have so much money, because they have obvious, because they have lawyers, they're going to be able to fight this, fight on behalf of people like american citizens who could never mobilize to fight this. And this is one of the great things about capitalism, is there is such a big prize in solving general AI that depopulated investors will you know race to provide this product flash service uh, to the big iron holders, whether it's microsoft or meta.

And so I think we're going to figure this out that's that tells me if we don't maybe mexico and canada get the business, maybe data centers will be in mexico and canada and will literally you use hydro and nuclear power plants in those locations like, I mean, IT sounds crazy, but mexico is right there and maybe mexico wants the business and we'll just put five nuclear reactors near the border and we'll get all the data center of business and will be flying flights from the united states to these regions in mexico that decide what we do want to, uh, have this business. And and that's one of the great things about jurisdictions. You know, as I get older and i've lived in three different states, I really think one of the great features of the united states, I was talking to somebody from european other day, yeah, these poor casters from trigonometry.

And you know, it's a we have this really great way that you can compete in the united states, texas, florida, can compete with new jersey and new york and california for the same group of people. You see seattle, a washington. Now is, I think they have on the referendum to get rid of state capital gains tax.

Again, I saw a headline and haven't been following IT, but they were using basis as an example of somebody who moved from seattle, washington, where amazon, his headquarter to florida, and then I magically sold a bunch of of shares when he was in blind. They were like, wait a second, we could have kept him here if we didn't charge in the capital gain tax. Maybe he said he .

moved for family. And just if I think IT is.

you know, I think he moved to seattle and a lot of people did microsoft as well because they had that tax treatment or weekly and they changed IT. So you know, I think what's going to make people competitive in the united states is if you are if you overcharge or you take away people's rights, we know you have both of these things occurring concurrently in some jurisdictions.

People are going to have to um people will make the bet of their attention. And the greatest attention is where you dominy yourself and your businesses based upon how the anchorage diction treat you, whether it's safety and security or its tax treatment or education systems or some combination of IT or bodily autonomy, as we've seen in aoa in texas, right? Some people are literally I know some technology companies that are having a hard time getting people to come to taxi because there are questions about abortion. Can you get one if you needed to get one?

Well I I I love the competition among states for um people's custom, you business or whatever um and I I might my beef with the with someone leaving their state is just that he feels to me a little bit unlike disloyal but that again, capitalism is competitive.

So maybe i'm over thinking that I I don't want to get too caught up in the nuance of interest state tax policy, but I just want to say, you know talking about canada and next, go picking up a business that we might not want in the U. S. For one reason or another. I just want a really big united states. I can be just like take canada right and just tuck IT in and get like six more states and it'll have the fifty six days airport go fifty to seven and then we'll .

have a big amErica how good about IT we'd love to see a president propose uh, making additional cities um which I ve been a fan of because we've so much land here and I think somebody got trumped to say that was a good idea as well. Like make a new city. Like got what china does they had just like we need a new city that's part one up.

We have the resources to do that. We have the land to do IT. Why not pop up a new city from scratch from first principles? And yeah, why not try to buy some land and create a fifty first, fifty second and fifty, you know, state if people want to be part of the united states, maybe put amErica wants to be part of the united states officially ally, be the fifty first date. I D here for IT.

Oh yeah, i'm totally in favorite, right guys, that's the AI power story. It's going to be a recurring event. This is why, for example, why s small modular reactors are in the news and all of them are starting to doing well because everyone's desperate for power. But let's move on to talk about our favorite thing in the world in which is self driving cars because my good news for you and me, uh, can we get this tweet up on the screen? Guys need not bullet um found this data before I did, I want to give him credit for this.

Here is a chart showing the number of drivers rights that way o has done in california per month and it's gone from twelve thousand in August of two thousand twenty three to three hundred and twelve thousand in August one thousand twenty four uh, and I I went, Jason, I did the work and I went through all the finance downers. All the documents found the information that we needed. And we prepared, in short, showing you the progress accompanies made in the last three months. So what can we get that up .

on on the screen start, can we go?

And the the headline starts always follows. Total miles driven by way o silt driving cars in california in june was just over one point one million, one point four million in july, one point eight million in August. Number of passion miles with passengers one hundred thousand to one point one to one point four million.

And this is the that that will blow my mind. The total passengers that they had in june was two hundred and ninety one thousand. By August, IT was just under a five hundred thousand.

So to me, the technology is scaling people wanted. And have you heard about a lot of crashes, Jason? I haven't.

I mean, it's pretty clear that at low speed, uh, in a contained environment, way more can do IT. Now there will be criticisms that they're using mission specialists and how much intervention is going on. But h, the rides are occurring.

And this is great for humanity. Young people are not going to bike cars. Is my prediction at the same rate they did? And so, you know, everybody wants to know how I feel about uber.

Oh my god, you know, I don't own the same number of uber shares. I ve always shown that doesn't know I don't have confidence in them, but I do think uber will participate in this. I do think tesla way mo, obviously, we also got a deep partners with ub now the Austin and uh, arizona rides are going to go through uber.

Yeah, the number of rides, and we've done this, you over and over again, we keep doing the back of the envelope math. This is going to take ten years to roll out to hit ten percent of rights in the U. S.

Is my estimate maybe IT takes ten years to hit fifteen percent of rights in the U. S. Which would be an absolutely giant normous tam and growing. I wonder what the point of owning a car will be if rides are everywhere, constantly in the wake times in the suburbs and the birds goes down to under ten minutes.

If I was under ten minutes every where to get a ride and IT was cheaper ultimately then um owning a car, I don't see people wanting to own cars um or maybe a family that would own two or three, we own one and then you so that that could be how this hashes out you know I own four cars. I own two collectable cars and three cars in service. So if you take the two collectables, which I don't write, have three cars for a family of five, that makes sense because I need my car.

And then two sets of kids going in two different directions, so we need three. But do I need my car? No, uh, I I don't drive IT enough. I could be uh in in uber all the time you own one car to your .

we're a one car family and I well, we know I keep almost buying a car, but then it's so annoy in Jason to actually go through all the little options and the card you once like iohn and then you have to ship IT and then we only have two spots to me, ni who drives and we have one car. Yes.

so basically you've come to the conclusion that getting a second car that you worth the squeak, you could afford to do IT. But the the riga moral of getting one, ensuring IT, maintaining IT is greater again, the juice in't worth the um is what a lot of people will come to the conclusion on. And so I think this is gonna also good people forget this. But one of the reasons we really like um what do we call IT when people shared the sharing economy, we had a buzzard for the sharing economy but .

I thought I was the show you kind of .

yeah there was another word for ca crowd sourcing. But anyway, the sharing economy was a concept that startups went through like, oh you know your skies, he your you know basketball collaborative .

consumption here to peace. And yeah, the economy .

during economy, I think, is probably the best term. The sharing economy was something people thought um we would have for anything over a thousand dollars. So a long power, instead of owning a long moor, a lawn mower in using once every two weeks, the idea would be you would come to my garage, take mine and we would rent them IT.

We're so um we have so much abundance in the united states, in the western world writ large. You kind of don't need to do that. But if IT becomes easier and the one Moore comes to you and you know it's crazy to say this, but I was driving a through one of the communities here in Austin, texas and I saw not one but two robotic lawn mowers, yeah, two different homes with robotic lawn mowers.

And I just thought to myself, well, there's no reason that that one lawn mower, which goes out every week and trim somebody is is long, couldn't do the other ten long. So why are ten people buying these? That makes no sense.

Not look at the environment and it's wilful when I just have IT hop the fence and go to everybody else's yard. Uh same thing with internet connections. I always wondered red why people don't share them more often. Um I guess privacy is one of the reasons but like yeah if one person were to buy an internet connection for the apartment, why do not find people shared and split the bill?

I I know because someone's going to art tour in half the internet and the half internet I do tragedy .

of .

the commons is another way of saying that I I am a big fan of the sharing economy in theory, other than the fact that I just don't have a lot of time. And so I the amount of money I could give for renting out my backyard to A A dog company or renting out cool car to be pushed behind because all it's lot of money for me to care about. And that's something .

the thing I do know that facebook marketplace has become absolutely hit critical mass. So the recycling economy, yes, that has happened for close. I know with my fourteen year old daughter, all of her friends are very cognizant of the environmental impact of close specifically.

And they like scripting. IT is like a pursuit. And they they don't like you just to save money. They like the act of going to a drifting store, creating outfits, and they like the idea of going online and getting things cheaper um and in being able to we stuff they have. So facebook marketplace seems to have really taken craggs list in ebay to another level of recycling of goods. I I put a bunch of computers when I moved and stuff like that on the facebook marketplace, and then when they were corn, same day, yeah, same day, people come and pick IT right up.

People who tell me that the only reason there are still on facebook is for facebook marketplace IT. Is that good? And there's the the buying nothing groups that all are all about swapping back. And for this is why when people are like, oh, no one's actually worried about climate change, I like I have no man some people do take IT pretty frick and seriously .

but what is what is buying nothing um is buying nothing groups.

I think it's designed to facilitate swapping or just like literally like I have a thing. Do you want IT? And in a way to just reduce overall consumption and therefore reduce waste and so forth. Yeah, I I don't take partners because I buy so much stuff. I have.

I have never heard of the by nothing movement. And this is super cool. There is a buy nothing project. Got org, eleven million neighbor od, two point six million gifts a month, two hundred forty five communities. well. This is very cool uh I guess people on buy nothing, which is an APP there is an appeared tly so yeah that seems like this is a thing um not .

good for the economy, not good for capitalism. But that may be good for the planet and therefore good for capitalism long term. But just I I want to go back to something you said about not buying a car. I actually literally the person you're talking about because I do take uber in around providence when something further away away, I actually have transition entirely to feed and uber and it's great .

I you know I I think that there is something in this uh by nothing and and reusing uh and the the sharing the economy that's gona have like a sharing economy two point o moment. I think we're on the cusp of a sharing economy. Two point on a moment.

Okay, i'm going to i'm going to write back down for for later. We can go back to the as a theme, Jason, we have to leave IT there for today, but we are back on wednesday. We are back on friday. Well.

wednesday, we're going to know some things.

We will partially know some things .

on wednesday. yes. Are some things about the election. Please don't. If you're hearing my voice and you're upset by whatever happens on tuesday, do not burn any buildings down. Do not to commit any violence.

Do not beat up police officers, file a protest to a peaceful protest. That's what the countries all about. If you hear my voice and you're thinking about burning of down or a crossing property to image or beating up cops.

please don't do that. No, do what i'm going to do instead, which is put your family to bed, fire up a fresh game of factorial drinks and tea, and then check every thirty five minutes because you can't keep away from yourself.

right? why? I am doing a live stream on all in tomorrow night.

So if you, if you haven't got enough jack out and you, anna, hang out with the best these tomorrow, go to youtube. You can find the feed. Right now.

There's literally like thirty lunatics already in the chat of the live stream. You know how some people will hang out in a live screen before. I know there's like thirty people arguing in J, S, got td, s, and oh my god, trumps some hitler. So you, if you, if you really want to get into IT, please go to the live stream. Right now.

I am going to decline that as I decline invitations locally to participate in election watching ceremonies because I I love the year doing IT. It's going to be popular. God speed. I will be automating any kind of a large space factory .

and try not to speak some right. We'll take this.