The Nasdaq fell by 2.34%, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 1.86%, the Russell 2000 decreased by 3.39%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 2.44%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose significantly by 21.14%.
December 2024 non-farm payrolls added 256,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 165,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, below both the expected rate and November's 4.2%. This robust job growth has shifted the Federal Reserve's focus towards inflation concerns, reducing expectations for significant rate cuts.
Following the strong December employment report, Federal Reserve officials have adopted a more hawkish tone, with some suggesting that the rate cut cycle may have ended. There is now a possibility of rate hikes if inflation exceeds 3% as measured by the core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index.
Strong U.S. economic data led to a global bond sell-off, with investors doubting the ability of global central banks to implement significant rate cuts. This has also led to a reduction in expectations for rate cuts by the European Central Bank, with only three cuts expected by June.
Constellation Energy announced a major acquisition of a private energy company, Corpus Corp, for $16.4 billion, with the total deal value exceeding $26 billion. This acquisition is set to create the largest clean energy provider in the U.S., significantly expanding Constellation's business scale and enhancing its long-term profitability.
Following the announcement of the acquisition, Constellation Energy's stock surged nearly 13% in pre-market trading and continued to rise during the trading session, peaking at a 25.66% increase to reach a new historical high of $306.41.
我们每周六也会在公众号《左兜进右兜》做美股技术周复盘,由于图片较多播客每周日我们只做美股宏观周复盘节目,喜欢技术分析的朋友可以去公众号查阅。
按照兴证宏观的分析,
1.经济韧性:
○12 月新增非农就业超预期 9.1 万人,虽前月下修 1.5 万人,但仍显就业市场活力。
○调查问卷回复率 2024 年最高,高于前两年同期,数据干扰或减少。
2.就业结构:
○政府、低收入服务业是主力。教育健康增 8 万、休闲酒店增 4.3 万、政府增 3.3 万。
○专业及商业服务、零售行业新增就业提升,零售受前值低基数影响。
○信息、金融业较前值改善,分别增 1 万、1.3 万。
3.失业率回落原因:
○本土居民:低龄、低学历群体因服务业需求旺,进入市场就业率升,兼职增幅大,如白人、16 - 24 岁等群体劳动参与和失业率同降。
○移民:部分撤离,亚裔、35 - 54 岁等群体劳动参与和失业率同降,或因特朗普移民政策使企业倾向本土招工。
4.工资情况:
○工资增速未超预期,但供需格局边际收紧。
○供给端劳动参与率修复慢,还受特朗普移民政策威胁;需求端服务业需求升温。
○V/U 比值反弹,低收入服务业工资同环比增速反弹,有工资粘性风险及通胀压力。
5.通胀与市场影响:
○通胀不确定性上升,联储降息路径受影响,1 月暂停降息可能性大。
○再通胀担忧致海外股债双杀,美元、大宗商品走强。
○后续需求或推升油价支撑通胀,通胀指标将影响市场降息预期与交易方向。
本期内容:
主播
左兜儿
幕后制作
右兜
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