Sudan's civil war is devastating lives and its economy
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Hello and welcome to World Business Report from the BBC World Service. I'm Sam Fennec. Coming up today, as Sudan's civil war enters its third year, we'll hear about the desperate measures people are taking to survive. Last year, Amanin, our community, tried to sell three of his children at the market just so someone else could feed them.

We have a rare glimpse into what Chinese traders really think about the ongoing trade war between China and the United States.

This is crazy. He's crazy. What are you going to do? What's going to happen? How are you going to sell your products? I believe Trump will change his mind. So you think you have your fingers crossed? Yeah, I believe I have my fingers crossed, yeah. And Peru's economic growth has slowed, but could it and other emerging economies gain from a weaker dollar? That's all coming up here in World Business Report over the next 30 minutes.

First, though, let's turn to Sudan, which on Tuesday is being called the centre of the world's largest humanitarian crisis. Tens of thousands of people have been killed and thousands have fled their homes in two years of civil war. Fighting began with armed clashes between the RSF paramilitaries and the Sudanese armed forces.

Miara Spuljic is president of the International Red Cross and is one of the aid organisations urging all sides to stop attacks on civilian infrastructure. What we are asking for is that the parties do more to comply with their obligations to protect civilians, to spare them from hostilities, but also, and this is extremely important today, to protect critical infrastructure. Attacks on hospitals, hospitals,

energy supply, water distribution centers cause enormous harm. It's not just the destruction of a facility, it's the consequences of destroying a water distribution system that then creates all these humanitarian pressures and leads to displacement. And this has to stop because it's a violation of the law.

More than 7,000 kilometres away, there were calls for an immediate ceasefire at a conference in London. Britain's Foreign Minister David Lammy said it was vital to convince the warring parties to protect civilians and let aid in. The biggest obstacle is not a lack of funding or texts at the United Nations. It's a lack of political will.

Today, half of Sudan's population faces severe hunger and risk of attack. So what is it like for people there? Let's hear from some who have been sharing their stories. And we'll start with Manela, who recorded her experiences in Al-Fasha for the BBC. She explains what it's like cooking for those in need as the city is being shelled.

We're working while there are gunshots and drones flying over. All the families are now on the same level. There is no rich and poor. After sunset, we can hear the sound of RSF drones in the distance. And the army is returning fire, as you can hear. Well, since then, she's moved to a safer area with her mother and her siblings. And she says that her father stayed behind and was killed in an artillery attack last September.

Let's hear now from Abdul Rahim. He's in North Sudan and he's lost all his work. I can no longer access my land, which means my family has lost our only source of income. Armed civilians now roam freely and violence has become a part of it.

Daily life, the conflict has deepened tribal division and destroyed any chance of peaceful coexistence. Last year, Amanin, our community, tried to sell three of his children at the market just so someone else could feed them. That is how these bread scenes have become.

That was Al-Dilbrahim and he was talking to the aid agency Mercy Corps. Its country director for Sudan is Khadri Furani and I spoke to him earlier from the eastern city of the port Sudan.

Our life basically will be in a tent that's torn now because it's two years down the line, surrounded by corrugated steel like rusty and any plywood that we can salvage from a landfill or something to protect, to have some privacy. Our daily most likely will start by grabbing the jerry cans, like 20 liters jerry cans usually, and walk the trip of like four or five kilometers to go to the nearest water point.

then probably half our day will be spent just to fill the 20 liter jerry cans, which is way like 20 kilos, and then walk back the whole trip to

How scarce is food?

Conflict disrupts production because people are displaced. You don't have access to your land because of the fight that's happening. If you decide to put your life at risk and stay close to your land, most likely you're not going to have access to agricultural inputs. You're not going to have access to seed and the stuff.

I mean, even if you have managed to salvage seeds from the past or something and you may not access that. And actually, some of the land is littered with landmines and unexploded ornaments right now. Even if you plant the land, you can't take care of the crop because you can't go back and forth because of the security of the roads.

Even if you manage to salvage some crop from your land, moving it to where you want or to a market will be disruptive, like it will be looted. So the whole country is disrupted because of the fight.

Can people buy food? Is there any food available for purchase? And if there is, what sort of prices is it? This is very complicated. And I can give you some numbers here. First, let me say I was lucky enough to be in Sudan in 2021. And at the time, Sudan was welcoming refugees from other countries, hosting refugees in other countries, South Sudan and the Tigray Ethiopians.

Now, back to prices. The U.S. dollars at the time, I remember quite well, were exchanging it for 55 Sudanese Guinea. Now, today, it's 600 Sudanese Guinea. Just to give you an idea, people's income didn't increase this much during this time. So this is one hit.

If I give you two examples for staple food, something that everybody eats, flour, we make bread. Before the fight erupted, a kilogram of flour was 800 guinea. Now it's 2,754. Let's say 2,800 guinea.

So the value of the new drop and the price has increased. People's income obviously didn't increase this much and their savings, if they can access it, wouldn't sustain this. Now, if we go to, I would say, sorghum flour. Sorghum is a product for the poor. It's more resilient than whatsoever. Now, a kilogram was 300 two years ago. Now it's 1,500. The UK and the EU have pledged to give about $750 million to help

How important is that money? Every dollar we get here, every pound we get here is a life saved. It's a life of a mother, a child. It's a life of a fellow citizen of this planet that we call home.

Obviously, the gap is massive. We are talking about up until today, only 10% of the $4.1 billion appeal was secured, only 10%. Now, with the recent announcements, definitely maybe the 10% will be 15%, but still the gap is massive. It's welcome development, definitely highly appreciated, but

Still, we need more. In past humanitarian responses, we get lots of pledges, but it doesn't materialize. I'm hoping this time the majority of those pledges would materialize. That was Khadri Forani, and he's from Mercy Corps. He's their country director in Sudan.

Let's move on now because President Trump has seemingly confirmed that China has withdrawn from a contract with the American aircraft manufacturer Boeing. Bloomberg is reporting that Beijing has instructed Chinese airlines to halt further deliveries from the company, a move believed to be in retaliation for the steep tariffs up to 125% imposed on Chinese goods by Mr Trump. On his social media platform Truth Social, Donald Trump said...

They just reneged on the big Boeing deal, saying that they will not take possession of the fully committed to aircraft. Let's talk now to Anita Mendirata. She is a global aviation consultant. So what details do we know about this deal, Anita? How much of it is actually for sure, for certain? Yeah.

Sam, thank you very much for having me on. The deal is very much, it's absolutely vital. The timing could not be more important. We're looking at effectively 179 Boeing aircraft that were due to be delivered between 2025 and 2027. Importantly, this was worth 1.2 billion US dollars to Boeing.

Now, we all know that Boeing has suffered significantly, especially in the last three years, in terms of productivity, safety, quality and credibility. So this is a severe knock for Boeing, especially as considering we're one week away from their actually reporting their quarter one results.

If we look at the Chinese effectively withdrawal of the orders on Boeing, this has a massive impact on Boeing, but also on global aviation as a whole. As we know, Boeing is part of a duopoly. So this suddenly puts the strength position into Airbus, the other part of the duopoly, as well as Comac, which is China's own C-2A.

state-owned enterprise that basically is an airline manufacturer that's backed by the Chinese government. And let's just talk about Boeing in a bit more detail now, because this year so far, Boeing shares are down by 10%. And so, as you said, they have taken a knock by various problems that they've had, strikes by staff, but also in-flight accidents as well.

Indeed. And as we remember, going back to August last year, Kelly Ortberg came in as the new leader of Boeing. He took on the realm of CEO and he did so very bravely, recognizing there were legal issues at Boeing, there were productivity and quality issues, they had strike action at Boeing. So he really took on a worst case scenario. And he has been very much at the forefront of owning the challenges. So Boeing has gained a great deal of trust and credibility in the last few months.

because Kelly has been very present. But this does not help at all. As just as they were starting to get momentum again, the confidence was coming back, the orders were coming back, a feeling of exhale was coming back, and suddenly this.

And so, again, it shifts the entire dynamics of the duopoly between Airbus and Boeing and, importantly, global aviation. Has, in your opinion, Airbus managed to capitalize on the problems that Boeing has been having and maybe gained some market share? Yeah.

It's an interesting way in which you articulate that question, because one thing that's very interesting about the aviation industry, firstly, they will never compete on safety. There is a code of conduct. There's an honor system there. And equally as well, as we know, aircraft manufacturing is both arts and science combined. It is a remarkable feat of engineering. So no manufacturer will ultimately become opportunistic about it.

But the fact remains that they haven't been able to deliver, haven't they? There's been delays on the aircraft being delivered. Even Air Force One has experienced delays with Boeing.

Oh, you're absolutely right. And this is where Airbus equally, they've had supply chain challenges, but they've come out much stronger than Boeing has. So this does put Airbus in a much, much, much stronger position of trust and of confidence of their airline clients ultimately booking the air manufacturing. So it does put Airbus in a stronger position, but it's not one again that Airbus would overtly take advantage of. It's really a shifting of where do we get the supply for a

discerning that we're seeing in global trade and global travel. Just briefly before we go, I know that China is developing its own commercial aircraft. How close are they to competing with the two industry giants, Airbus and Boeing?

Importantly, absolutely. China started developing COMAC, which is ultimately created in 2008. It's the acronym for Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China. It's a state-owned government nationally carried enterprise. They are very close to being able to reach international certification. They still need to get approval from the FAA in terms of the US as well as European regulators. But

But bearing in mind, the Chinese market is massive when it comes to travel. It's ultimately 5.3 million flights that go on annually. It's 10% of global flights. So even though they don't have international regulation approval, they still have Chinese operational approval to be able to utilize the aircraft. And ultimately, this takes aircraft away from Airbus and Boeing.

Thank you very much, Anita Mandirata, for joining us on the programme. The BBC has contacted Boeing for a response on this, but the company declined to comment.

Well, as China pulls back from its deal with Boeing, President Xi Jinping is embarking on a diplomatic charm offensive across Southeast Asia, visiting Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia. His trip comes as concerns grow among Chinese companies that they could face severe economic fallout from the ongoing trade war with the United States.

On China's manufacturing heartland of Guangdong province, businesses are already starting to feel the strain. Our Beijing correspondent Laura Bicker reports now from the south of the country where manufacturers are bracing themselves for disruptions. We're heading into the Canton Fair, but this place has so many halls that even we're getting lost and having to ask for directions.

Are we going the right way? Yeah. The whole fair takes up a space of around 200 football fields, so that gives you an idea of the size of this. And that's what the fair is.

apples, carrots and just one or two piece mango. This area has everything you might need for the home from toothbrushes to vacuum cleaners, coffee machines, blenders, washing machines, fridges.

As well as household goods, this year the Canton Fair is full of bewildered traders wondering if they can still sell to the US market, including Lionel Xu from Sorbo Technology. For the US market, we have more than 15%. 50%?

50 or 15? 50. Five zero. Five zero percent. Zero percent more than five zero percent in the U.S. market. So it's very hard for us because crazy Trump. This is crazy. He's crazy. What are you going to do? What's going to happen? How are you going to sell your products? I mean, we will go better in one month or two months because I believe Trump will change his mind. So you think you have your fingers crossed? Yeah, I believe I have my fingers crossed. Yeah.

Lionel's orders bound for the US are piled in his warehouse, waiting. And his company is not the only one. Amy is selling electric ovens and ice cream makers for the Guangdong Sailing Trade Company.

How is business for you these days? Not good, not bad. Not good, not bad? Yeah. How about tariffs? How about Donald Trump and his tariffs? Do you still sell to the US? No. Stop production already. You've stopped production already? Yeah, all the products are in the warehouse, yeah. They're all in the warehouse? Yeah, in the warehouse, yeah. Because, yeah. Tariffs. Do you think that will change? Do you think there will be a deal? Maybe.

The effects of this trade war will likely be felt in kitchens and living rooms across America. You'll now have to buy these goods at higher prices from elsewhere. China has maintained its defiant stance and vowed to fight this trade war until the end. It's a tone also used by some at the fair. Hai Viam was looking to buy some electric ovens for his firm and waved off the effects of tariffs. They don't want us to export. They

If you put too much tax, it means that no need to export. We already have China market, very big, many people. Yes, we give the best thing to Chinese first. I think it's good, right? Most of the stallholders we spoke to who export to America say all their exports are in warehouses waiting to be shipped. If you export to the United States, you are currently in limbo, waiting.

for two leaders, President Xi and Donald Trump, to come together and negotiate. But any talks seem quite far off. It's my understanding that there is limited contact between the two sides and that any negotiations so far have been between intermediaries. That means there's a long way to go before China and the US resolve this dispute. And that will leave many, many manufacturers here in Guangdong in limbo.

That was Laura Bicker reporting for...

As Africa stands on the brink of accelerated development, the 2025 Africa Markets Conference brought global and African investors, risk leaders, policymakers and regulators together to discuss our economic future. Discover key themes including how to meet the continent's structural needs while driving sustainable growth at standardbank.co.za forward slash cib. Standard Bank is an authorized FSP and registered credit provider.

T's and C's apply. If you're just starting your personal finance journey, Financially Inclined is exactly what you need. I'm Janelia Espinal, host of Financially Inclined, and each week we discuss money lessons you need to know. Listen to Financially Inclined wherever you get your podcasts. You're listening to World Business Report from the BBC World Service with me, Sam Fennec.

Now, the trade war is significantly affecting the value of the US dollar, which has fallen to a near three-year low. Meanwhile, gold prices continue to rise. George Conboy is chairman of Brighton Securities based in New York. He joins us now. Can you explain the impact this trade war is having on the dollar and why? Why is it at a three-year low? Explain it for us, George.

Sure. The biggest thing, Sam, is the uncertainty that's been introduced to the entire economic system by some of the Trump administration policies. When you have something you can count on and you expect things to come from the economy, certain amount of growth, certain amount of income, the dollar is a more valuable currency. With less certainty, the dollar might be just as good.

But buyers of that currency can't be so sure. And the value is falling versus most other major international currencies. So has there been any historical parallels that we can draw from previous trade disputes where there has been this similar effect on the dollar?

It would go way back. It would be some of the big currency fluctuations after the Bretton Woods and the abandonment of Bretton Woods back in the 70s. It's been really a career, my career over the last 40 years, I haven't seen this level of fluctuation. We've seen big moves, bigger moves, but over much longer periods of time. The amount of move we've had in a fairly short period,

suggests that it may be a longer-term move, but it may also be temporary. The kinds of things that have happened could be reversed or they might stay in place, but that's yet another element of uncertainty that's driving what's happening. We've heard on the programme over the past few weeks that the impact on prices...

could push up inflation. But could the value of the dollar have an impact on inflation too? It absolutely could. With a lower dollar, it's going to cost you more to buy goods that we bring into the U.S. from overseas. Now, there are two things there. Number one, could that drive inflation? Yes, it could.

Number two, could it prompt buyers to buy U.S.-made products instead of imported products because those are more expensive due to the level of the dollar? Yes, it could do that as well. So there's that self-adjusting aspect of the fluctuation in currency that says it'll cost you more to import. Maybe you buy locally, and that might help keep inflation down. Countervailing things,

But we're not going to stop imports overnight, nor should we. So I think there's a bias in favor of more mild inflation. And if you look at the U.S. bond market, if you look at interest rates, that's a clear signal that inflation is expected.

George, stay there for us because I want to bring in Arturo Espinosa Bocarno. He's an economics researcher at Adept Economics and also an expert on Peru. He's formerly served as the market access analyst with Peru's Ministry of Trade and Tourism. Arturo, do you think the US dollar's decline could unlock new opportunities for emerging markets like Peru?

Hi, Sam. How are you? I'm good. Good. Well, this is an interesting scenario with uncertainty given the Trump administration policies affecting the world trade or in general the global economies. But particularly for Peru, it's going to, well, the exchange rate when the U.S. dollar is weakening

is going to positively affect our Peruvian export because those Peruvian goods are going to be cheaper in the international markets and we can sell more. What about debt? Emerging economies have debt, which is often denominated by the US dollar. So could a weak dollar reduce the level of debt?

Well, in the short time, you reduce, given the price of the dollar. But that will depend on how long the US dollar will remain at that level or it will keep decreasing. So potentially those emerging markets

will pay their external debts and they could reduce, but it's not going to be significant, I think. Peru's released some GDP data today. The economy expanded by 2.7% compared to a year earlier, but that was lower than was expected. Just explain that for us. Why was it lower?

Yes, it was expected to grow at least 4%, but unfortunately it grew 2.7%.

Well, basically, this is related to some uncertainty in the global markets. For example, Peru exports grapes and blueberries to USA. And those agricultural goods are affected by the 10% tariff, crime tariff, that will increase.

reduce the revenue in that export sector. So that is one channel. Another industry could be affected as well, given this 10% of tariffs. Arturo, thank you very much. Let me just go back to George. Could any benefits of a weaker dollar actually be outweighed by the tariffs that Donald Trump has put on some of these countries? Sure, it could.

We do see a benefit to Peru from the reduction of the value of the dollar on their debt. And Peruvian debt, maybe $100 billion denominated in U.S. dollars, at least debt to the U.S., whereas exports to the U.S., only about a billion dollars. We think that a softening dollar should help Peru. The goods they sell to the U.S. can be sourced elsewhere, agricultural goods like grapes,

some minerals as well. But in general, if there's more global trade and there's a little more outside the U.S., Peru stands to benefit in a very modest way. Not a big change, but a slight positive overall net that we see. And just looking at oil prices, they've reached sort of dropped below $60 a barrel over the last few days. I mean, is that going to have an impact on those emerging economies? Yes.

We think it's a meaningful boost for most emerging economies, Sam, because most of these very small emerging countries don't have major energy sources. So lower energy prices help them across their economy. Good for them. I'm happy that we've got lower energy prices and I hope it benefits them as well.

George Conboy, thank you very much for joining us today on World Business Report. The producer was David Kann. I'm Sam Fenwick. Don't forget you can always find us on the podcast search for World Business Report wherever you get your podcasts.

As Africa stands on the brink of accelerated development, the 2025 Africa Markets Conference brought global and African investors, risk leaders, policymakers and regulators together to discuss our economic future. Discover key themes including how to meet the continent's structural needs while driving sustainable growth at standardbank.co.za forward slash cib. Standard Bank is an authorized FSP and registered credit provider.

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