(Includes full article narration.)
I have an article summarizing attempts to forecast AI progress, including a five year check-in on the predictions in Grace et al (2017)). It’s not here, it's at asteriskmag.com), a rationalist / effective altruist magazine: Through A Glass Darkly). This is their AI issue (it’s not always so AI focused). https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/through-a-glass-darkly-in-asterisk)