DHUnplugged #718: D’Bait
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August ends on the high side – (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)

Rate cut bets are in place

Market very skittish – September not the best month on average

VIX hits 25 last week

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Warm Up

• Another Rough Start to the month
• Apple Event - market was
• Last episode - ETF and Funds Education - lots of great comments on that!
• DEBATE TIME - right in the middle of our show! Someone needs to look at our schedule

**Market Update **- August ends on the high side - (like July) and then gets knocked down hard (like August) and then Rips higher on Monday (like August)

• Rate cut bets are in place
• Market very skittish - September not the best month on average
• VIX hits 25 last week
• Yen Carry trade issue not fully resolved
• YIELD CURVE UPDATE

Big News

• Yield curve normalizes for 2/10's
• Yield curve is not normal - this is what happened  in 2001 and 2008

Apple Event

• Apple introduces Apple Watch Series X with a new design.
• Largest most advanced display ever with 30% more screen area.
• The display is larger than the Apple Watch Ultra.
• Display will be 40% brighter.
• Watch will be 10% thinner than Apple Watch 9.
• Background noise will be surprised on phone calls.
• Smart Stack will add widgets whenever you need them.
• Adding translate application. -Apple Watch can track menstrual cycles.
• Apple Watch can alert users to sleep apnea.
• Starts at $399.
• A few incremental updates otherwise and talk of AI to come - one day someday

More Apple

• Europe's top court on Tuesday ruled against Apple in the tech giant's 10-year court battle over its tax affairs in Ireland.
• The Commission in 2016 ordered Dublin to recover up to 13 billion euros ($14.4 billion) in back taxes from Apple, at the time saying that the tech company had received "illegal" tax benefits from Ireland over the course of two decades.
• So is this final this time?
• How is this possible anyway - Ireland granted tax benefits for the purpose of benefiting jobs etc....

Apple Competition

• Huawei's tri-fold phone receives over 4 mln pre-orders ($2,800 per)
• Have you seen this?
• VERY COOL device

Palantir

•  Palantir Technologies hits best levels since early 2021 following inclusion in S&P 500
• +15% on the  news

Dell

• Dell also is added to the S&P 500
• Etsy and American Airlines out

Tech - Oracle Earnings

• Oracle beats on some metrics and has some great outlook
• Missed on EPS
• Partnering with Amazon
• The company said Oracle Database is thriving, and the multi-cloud agreements it has with Microsoft, Google, and now AWS make it easier for its customers to run their Oracle Databases in the cloud.
• Stock at ATH

NVDA

• WORST DAY EVER for a stock
• Slide last week took at $300 BILLION on market value in one day.
• New DOJ probe in anti-trust case
• The agency is asking questions about whether Nvidia makes it harder to switch to other suppliers of AI chips.
• Nvidia has over 80% of the market for data center AI chips, according to industry estimates.

Best Buy

• People are buying...
• Raising full year guidance
• Comparable sales declined 2.3% during the quarter, compared with a 6.2% decline a year earlier. --- It is all about  the expectations...

Glasses - Again?

• Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon told CNBC the chip designer is working with Samsung and Google to explore a mixed-reality set of glasses linked to a smartphone
• Last year, Google, Samsung and Qualcomm struck a partnership to develop mixed-reality technology.
• This is supposed to be a smaller version of what is out there right now as opposed to over the  head from Meta and Apple

Goldman Sachs

• Goldman Sachs will post a roughly $400 million pretax hit to third-quarter results as the bank continues to unwind its ill-fated consumer business.
• Goldman is instead focusing on asset and wealth management to help drive growth.
• CEO David Solomon said Monday at a conference that by unloading Goldman's GM Card business, as well as a separate portfolio of loans, the bank would post a hit to revenues when it reports results next month.
• Stock down $20 or 4%

Debate

• Thoughts on if this one will dramatically change the race (like the last one)
• Fact checkers already in a tizzy about what to expect and how it will be spun
• Inflation and costs will be near the top
• Border security and foreign policy havd to be in the mix
• Thoughts on how this could impact markets?

Econ

• Payrolls - grew but less than expected
• Unemployment Rate dropped back to 4.2%
• The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as expected. However, the “real” unemployment rate edged up to 7.9%, its highest reading since October 2021.
• 142,000 new jobs added.
• The previous two months saw substantial downward revisions. The BLS cut July’s total by 25,000, while June fell to 118,000, a downward revision of 61,000.
• Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% on the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both higher than the respective estimates for 0.3% and 3.7%. --- CPI and  PPI due Wednesday and Thursday

China Econ

• China on Monday reported the consumer price index rose 0.6% year on year.
• Retail sales rose by just 2.7% in July from a year ago
• Major deflationary pressure in China - total mess

US Steel Saga

• The Biden administration told Nippon Steel in a letter on Saturday its $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel would pose a national security risk by harming the American steel industry, three people said, adding to evidence the U.S. is poised to block it.
• Stock drops hard
• The deal faces opposition from numerous Democrats and Republicans, with Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris saying on Monday she wants U.S. Steel to remain "American owned and operated." Her Republican rival Donald Trump has pledged to block the deal if elected.Oil

OIL

• Biden Administration buying for the SPR
• Cracked below $66 today - down from $76 end of August
• Middle East and Russia no longer  a concern?
• China  slowdown and global slowdown  cracking commodities?
• Updated OPEC projections out today: "The world oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down slightly to about 2.0 mb/d, which is still well above the historical average of 1.4 mb/d seen prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. This minor adjustment of 80 tb/d reflects mainly actual data received year-to-date."

NFTs

• Crypto marketplace OpenSea has been added to the SEC's list of targets, as the regulator extends its crackdown on the sector.
• What took so long?
• The company's CEO said in a post on X on Wednesday that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission issued a Wells notice against OpenSea.
• The letter, according to the OpenSea chief, alleges that the nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, sold on its platform are securities. OpenSea is a popular platform that allows users to create, sell and buy NFTs.

 

 

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