DHUnplugged #714: Crisis Averted
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Cut taxes on SS and Tips?

President decides rates?

China – inflation ticking up

YEN volatility – NOT OVER

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Warm Up

• Cut taxes on SS and Tips?
• President decides rates?
• China - inflation ticking up
• YEN volatility - NOT OVER
• Announcing the WINNER for the UNH CTP

**Market Update **- CRISIS AVERTED

• August doldrums - but big week of Eco Data
• Market Punishing earnings misses - more than usual
• Same old  = going back to the Mega-Cap trade while pulling other sectors down
• PPI out - changing direction

Crisis Averted

• Monday (last) Yen plunge then pick up - Come on
• Japan markets fell 12% then rallied 10%  - intervention anyone? --- Clearly there is an invisible hand at work here ---- Plus Japan officials waled back their "hawkish" comments ---- 17 years of ZERO or NEGATIVE rates, markets don't want to give that up --- Do you know why this is all happy pappy now? How did they resolve the 2 day crisis? (Hint - $$$$)
• Japanese markets have recovered ALL of the losses since last Monday - ALL

Volume/Vacations - August

• Volumes are down across the board. Aside from a couple of days when markets moved lower
• Will probably continue to see slow markets (unless some outside shock) through Labor Day
• However  - big week of ECO data
• • CPI, PPI, UMich, Import/Export prices, Retail Sales (no one has a clue what the trajectory is from here)

Month to Date

| | MTD |

| IWN | | iShs Russell 2000 Value ETF | | -7.87% |

| IWM | | iShs Russell 2000 ETF | | -7.10% |

| IWO | | iShs Russell 2000 Grwth ETF | | -6.15% |

| IWD | | iShs Russell 1000 Val ETF | | -2.45% |

| IWB | | iShs Russell 1000 ETF | | -1.68% |

| IWF | | iShs Russell 1000 Gwth ETF | | -1.00% |

Really?

• Former President Donald Trump this week repeated his plan to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors.
• The Republican nominee called for "no tax for seniors on Social Security" during a "Fox & Friends" interview Wednesday
• Of course Harris/Walz also want to cut taxes on SS now... ***** Some "experts" say that this will hurt the solvency of SS and Medicare even more - now expected to run out in 2035 --- Oh - let's eliminate taxes on TIPS ---- The Waiters & waitresses workforce and tipped in service industry are about 4 Million people (1% of population

Where do we stand on this..

• Presidents having a direct say - or vote - on Fed decisions?

Switcher-rooo

• Chipotle Mexican Grill announces that Brian Niccol, Chairman and CEO has accepted the role as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Starbucks (SBUX) and will be leaving the Company effective August 31, 2024
• -On the news, SBUX up 17% and CMG down 10%

China

• China's consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 0.5% in July from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Friday.
• Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a slight pickup in the consumer price index to 0.3% in July from a year ago, versus 0.2% in June.
• Is this good news or bad?

PPI

• July Core PPI 0.0% vs. 0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.3% from 0.4% -- Disinflation is speeding up - nearing DEFLATION concerns
• Tomorrow - CPI

Another one...

• Home Depot on Tuesday topped quarterly expectations, but cautioned that sales will be weaker than expected in the back half of the year as high interest rates and consumer uncertainty dampen demand.
• The home improvement retailer said it now expects full-year comparable sales to decline by 3% to 4% compared to the prior fiscal year. It had previously expected comparable sales, a metric that takes out the impact of store openings and closures and other one-time factors, to decline about 1%.
• Home Depot warned of a decline in annual profit and a bigger drop in its annual comparable sales on Tuesday, as weak discretionary spending dampened expectations of a recovery in consumer sentiment this year.

Impressive

• Buffett's Berkshire currently holding more short-term US Treasury bills than the Federal Reserve
• The company announced in its latest earnings report that it has $234.6 billion in short-term Treasury bills on its books — a sizable increase from the $130 billion it held at the end of last year and an amount that surpasses the $195 billion in T-bills held on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
• Sold a tom of Apple and  Bank of America

Boeing - Gilligan

• NASA officials said on Wednesday the two astronauts delivered to the International Space Station in June by Boeing's Starliner could return on SpaceX's Crew Dragon in February 2025 if Starliner is still deemed unsafe to return to Earth.
• The U.S. space agency has been discussing potential plans with SpaceX to leave two seats empty on an upcoming Crew Dragon launch for NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who became the first crew to fly Boeing's Starliner capsule.
• A supply of food and supplies sent up every Tuesday
• Starliner development has been set back by management issues and numerous engineering problems. It has cost Boeing $1.6 billion since 2016, including $125 million from Starliner's current test mission, securities filings show.

Intel

• Intel was sued on Wednesday by shareholders who said the Silicon Valley chipmaker fraudulently concealed problems that led it to post weak results, slash jobs and suspend its dividend, and caused its market value to sink more than $32 billion in a single day.
• The proposed class action against Intel, Chief Executive Patrick Gelsinger and Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner was filed in San Francisco federal court.

Ford - eBikes?

• Ford is coming out with a line of e-bikes bases on old favs
• The e-bikes are inspired by its Mustang cars and Bronco SUVs with distinct style and power.
• Price - anywhere from $3,700 - $4,500 -- Looks like other similar bikes that cost $2,000

Elon Polluting

• Elon Musk's SpaceX violated environmental regulations by repeatedly releasing pollutants into or near bodies of water in Texas, a state agency said in a notice of violation focused on the company's water deluge system at its Starbase launch facility.
• The notice from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) last week came five months after the Environmental Protection Agency Region 6 office, which covers Texas and surrounding states, had also informed SpaceX that it violated the Clean Water Act with the same type of activity.

Macy's Dominos?

• Macy's decision to close nearly a third of its stores will spark change in malls and communities across the U.S.
• Some of those transformations may catch shoppers by surprise.
• The retailer said in late February that it plans to close about 150 of its namesake locations by early 2027. Macy's has not yet shared which stores will shutter. When CEO Tony Spring announced the move, he said the stores that Macy's will close account for 25% of the company's gross square footage, but less than 10% of its sales.
• ? Macy's closures will also make way for real estate developments that may better match the changing demographics or economy of their surroundings, whether through construction of a medical building, a retirement community or a grocery store.

This again

• Tilray confirms the Company has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire four craft breweries from Molson Coors Beverage Company
• is this just about infusing - and if so - why buy the brands?
• If it is about just expanding portfolio - what is that saying about the profitability and future of their MJ business?

OOPS

• The United Autoworkers Union (UAW) on Tuesday said it filed federal labor charges against former President Trump and Tesla CEO Elon Musk for allegedly attempting to threaten and intimidate workers during their Monday night discussion on Musk's X platform.
• Basically, Trump intemated that if workers go on strike - they should be fired
• Federal law prohibits companies from firing workers who participate in a strike whether they're members of a union or not.

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****** **)** ANNOUNCING THE WINNER !! Closest to The Pin for - United Healthcare (UNH) **)

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