Shownotes Transcript
Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit)
Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment)
KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020
Earnings growth expected to continue....
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Warm Up
- Assassination Attempts = Market Positive (for US Markets ONLY)
- ALL TIME HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD - SMALL CAPS ON A BENDER
- Disinflation OUT - Deflation IN
- College athletes - Min Wage?
Market Update
- Market Rotation continues - "Trump" stocks got boost after weekend (Biden stocks took a hit)
- Risk On - Risk Off is the play (Fundamentals are not being considered at the moment)
- KRI Indicator - Doing something not done since June 2020
- Earnings growth expected to continue....
- Gold at ATH - Bitcoin moving - Risk on or Worries about the future?
OH MY
- Small Caps +10% MTD , 11% YTD (Tom Lee calling for 40% move over next 12 weeks...)
- Value over Growth
- Real Estate - Builders - WOW! --- Jump from 50 to 400+ 52 Week Highs today ----- Money coming out of Big boys - rotating and it is uneven pull/push
- KRE - Regional banks up 14% this month ----- DJIA UP BIG AGAIN - Rates holding at lower end of the range
Post Assassination Attempt (Monday Markets)
- European Markets RED across the board
- Russian Market GREEN
- China RED
- Japan RED
- US Markets GREEN
- Bitcoin and Ether - GREEN
Powell on Monday
- Markets came in as Powell -ONCE AGAIN - repeated the same mantra of not done - but looking to cut before we reach 2% -B.O.R.I.N.G.
Trump Media
- DJT Stock: Trump Media shares surged over 50% in premarket trading Monday following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday.
- Was up 30% by end of day on Monday
China Economic Update
- China's National Bureau of Statistics on Monday said the country's second-quarter GDP rose by 4.7% year on year, missing expectations of a 5.1% growth, according to a Reuters poll.
- Retail sales also missed expectations, rising by 2% year-on-year in June, versus the 3.3% forecast.
- Industrial production beat expectations up by 5.3% in June from a year ago, above the forecast 5% increase.
- Urban fixed asset investment for the first six months of the year rose by 3.9%, matching expectations.
- China's GDP grew by 5.3% year on- year in the first quarter.
KRI Indicator
- Hitting +6 and that has not happened since June 2020
- First time over +5 since Dec 2023 (pulled back a few days later, then continued its upward trajectory
- Rolled over a bit a few days later then continued its upward trajectory (BULL MARKET)
Any Surprise? Retail....
- Macy's -14.2% is sharply lower after terminating M&A talks with Arkhouse Mgmt and Brigade Capital
- Burberry, a luxury brand which trades in London, also issued a profit warning and named a new CEO.
- These developments are leading to weakness in some department store names: JWN -3%, KSS -2.7%, DDS -2.3%.
- Consumer is starting to fight back?????
DEFLATION?
- CPI was NEGATIVE MoM
- PPI was hot and cold - depending on what number you looked at Deflation CPI Chart
Finally!
- Archegos Capital Management founder Sung Kook "Bill" Hwang was convicted of fraud and other charges by a jury in Manhattan federal court on Wednesday at a criminal trial in which prosecutors accused him of market manipulation ahead of the 2021 collapse of his $36 billion private investment firm.
- The trial centered on the implosion of Hwang's family office Archegos,