The Cost of the American Dream (EP.384)
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Today's animal spirits is also brought to by crane shares. I am a daily reader of china last night from b hern at crane shares, because I i've still hand up like don't always understand china. I didn't. Shanghai index had the longest bear market by duration eight hundred and seventy five days from september twenty twenty one until the february of this year.

Well, sounds like the rest the world was in the market .

over that time.

Sarcasm in the east coast?

yes. So I I am still trying to understand what's going out of a stimulus in china. I think a lot of people are almost too bar shine. And I tendering like the other way i'm being training, like what if I actually works this time? So cranch's puts out a ton of good information on this.

So what do they say? The weekly distribution for hong kong grown stacks went from fifteen percent over boat to hundred ninety percent, hundred ninety four percent over boat the week of twenty twenty thirty, which was one may did the fiscal thing. What mean like shares in china went crazy, right? So I think K B is now up, what? Twenty percent on the year? That's their china internet fund.

And I think he was down then. So they're just been a massive move in chinese stocks. So I think if you want to understand more about the chinese market like I do, check out crane shares that com, also check out k web and then china last night that calm for the thoughts on china all the time. Welcomes to animal spirits a shell about markets.

life and investing, join Michael bada and then carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of red host wealth management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.

Clients of bridge holds wealth management may maintain positions in the security is discussed in this podcast. Welcome to animal spirits with mica band ban. However, how are you? Hi, so you I had a conversation with jared dillon on his concerns about private actually private credit and all the activity that trapped on monday on the feet. I thought we were pretty clear that there was not an endorsement and that was we were pretty verbal about the fact .

that we I personally don't think this is the biggest short ever. That's my display.

Fair, fair.

I am a shooter down of narratives that that's my stance in the market usually like .

I think that I think far too good. Make every good. I think people are far .

too quick to describe near this because IT makes you feel good. IT makes you feel good of your hands. And in the steam, well, if you go well, this market is going this way because of this, and this is moving down or up because of this. I think that just makes people feel Better.

Then is such a narrative swap that if the markets moved decisively one day after reaction, he's going to say, who knows? Who knows what drive? There could be noise, who knows?

Yes, I I will be saying that. So this is a tweet from bill, a guy found on twitter who has a sponge rub score pants as as avatar AR. So must not be talking about pretty file actually.

Uh, he shows a picture of the tenure treasury al, and he goes up and down and up and down. And every time IT peaks he kind of says, uh, watch out. It's the bond vigilias.

And I feel like we see this all the time. Number one, rates got to five percent last year. And everyone that art here goes, it's physical responsibility by the us. government. That's what's causing the rates to go up, then rates come down and the sin and and I just think people spend way too much time trying to shoehorn their own personal narratives. Markets that are moving for a reason that probably have more to do with where people putting their money than anything else.

Yeah, I don't disagree. But just for the sake of argument, sometimes the market is wrong and sometimes the nit is wrong. So just because the market might move and I don't think weren't any different, um sometimes people are just wrong. And that lead to like the position in part of IT is that the narratives were wrong and then the narratives need to get on the wound. So IT right?

There is something there you are big, like the bar mark got animal m because everyone thought there was going to be a recession. Yeah, exactly. yeah.

But so right. So so what we're talking about here specifically is the fact that the the narrative now is the first cut rates. And interesting ted artizan, what gives why this happening? So gb ocho has a great tweet showing all the previous incenses after the fed first cut rates of the ten year treasury yield. And unlike any other time, going out twenty five hundred hours, thirty days outside of that interest rates are the ten you are significantly higher and that never .

happen before. So again, that is interesting that some of some of those other times .

rates did much there. yes. So anyway, what I think has the correction and he said, warn tweed, many are misinterpreting recent Price action.

The move from three point six to four point two five and a ten year does not signal a policy mistake. Instead, IT is the unwind of recession insurance buyers. And what I saw, I was like .

the same thing me, I saw I go, oh, that.

yes. So it's it's a few things. It's so on. T, V. We have a lot of people talking about the deficit in the minutes, get a second, but warns point is it's a combination of number one, economic strength, a justified higher a treasury.

Al, but more importantly, and most important, this is why narratives do matter, is because there was a lot of people buying a protection for buying protection in case of recession happened, that would send rates lower. We didn't get a session. We got actually economic of strike in anger, actually. But we ve got decent economic news. And now that trade is being unwound, pushing rates back to where they probably should .

have been in the first place, right? The idea was um you're getting a double way and me the fed lawn rates and the economy labor markers are weakening. So that could be in recession that is and that didn't. And so people selling bonds and pushes tes back up and tear point that makes sense, make that makes way more .

sense than that makes more sense than all of a sudden, uh, the deficit matters all of a sudden. Although why do the gold is really it's weird.

I look at this. And over the last year, the s and p five hundred hundred and gold are both up roughly forty percent. And I couldn't find another time in history when that before ever IT was close in the early eighties.

But it's a bizarre thing. And a lot of people as well as because of the fiscal deficits in I don't know that, that almost sounds too cute to me. It's bizarre. E, because most people assume gold does Better when really interest rates are are lower, but rates have been going higher.

So well, this is man, something to this. What we're on the topic of narratives is IT fair to say that goal is going hire because more gold buyers are in fact worried about the deficit. And IT could also be true that inaccurate, the worries about the deficit will prove to be unfounded. Pole things should be true. Now .

fair. That's that's certainly possible. It's is bizarre. See the stock market and gold go up like this. IT would have been hard to come up with a negative ahead of time for that being the case.

What if just rise is going up? But I know gold is not traditionally risk up, but IT is a risky. Look at this chart that shows the this from bank amErica shows the biggest inflated gold fund since july two thousand and twenty.

Now is that because investors are worried about the deficit is IT momentum and and strict. But why does moment it's really hard to know. Also, look at bitcoin.

Is bitch coin a deficit story? Or is that a omentum of risk on story? I have no idea, but IT IT IT doesn't not matter.

This is what you want, free diversified assets though. You want them all to go at the same time, right? You don't want to go down at the same time, but you want them to go up at the same time that .

you want risk on for the win.

Yeah, risk on. Uh, so corn rosha a disGrace. Funds had a postcard.

We need to talk about bond vigiLance and he's saying, like listen, the the government spending as a percent of GDP was really hyder in the pandemic. Now IT has Normal ized. It's basically he's not that worry about anyone.

He had some good points basically saying because you know you on musk this thing where he says we're going bankrupt, what people do and there was a paul toter Jones hit cnbc, where he talked about this, the headline paul Jones has market reckoning on spending is coming after election. We are going to be broke in collective through the history of this and show that there was a piece in twenty thirteen or standing dunk. Miller made the same in that claim.

And my whole point on the fiscal deficit, government spending thing is, sound the alarm all you want, but give me a line in the sand. Give me that you can't just scream from the hills every two or three years government spending out of control. We're going broke. Just wait. It's onna happen.

That's the thing that that makes me mad. Been for a while .

so so he take him, shared a post from cc in 2， or he says this, I want to own, this is power Jones in twenty. I want to own commodities, hard assets in cash. When would I want to buy stocks? When the deficit is two percent, not five percent? Now the deficit is, I don't know, seven percent. So he was saying, you know, he's worried about back then so this is the I, who is very smart and he's a good investor, but he's my good little sun.

He's a trader. He good and twenty. So I wrote about this in twenty fifteen and twenty fifteen.

He said on C, N, B, C, we are going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues. That's twenty fifteen. I guess what? He's a trader.

I'm sure he's done fine. Me like it's on the king. He's not married to his views of the market person wrong like truck and Miller. I'm sure he's like, listen, this is what I think, but I trust the market over me and i'm going to get longer, short bason where the market is going out, where I think the market is going to go. But IT gets it's a mentality here .

so that people are not gonna get mad of this because i'm talking about their heroes. But you never, ever, ever listen to hedge fund guys talk about macro. They're terrible at at spouting macro.

Think about IT paul to the Jones staining drug meller ray di o. These guys have been wrong and maker on the fed for fifteen years and these are some of the smartest, best and I guess what their portfolios have done, fine. yeah. But if you took their macro takes at face value.

public o in public.

it's like you're speaking .

er with them for ten hours and write they're on TV for a couple of minutes.

Yes, but the stuff they say sounds very until I got a ton of people asking me about paleo Jones and I went back and and I I found all of the times he's been talking about the third and the deficit in spending in my whole thing is like, listen, if you're going to talk about this, then you either put your money in your mouth and and he said he's shorting band, so he is. But guess like you said, he could change his mind very quickly. Short buttons has been .

a good trade. I would be shot taking profits here.

It's possible, right? Yeah, that's the thing. The time frames that these guys managing the deficit in the government debt, if it's going to be a problem that everyone keeps saying IT is that's a very long time.

Her eyes in bet I actually saw drug somebody tweet about truck, really. Yes, I member hood was that twenty five thousand of the support or four I was short bonds I guess what he made money um and he said I wish I was bigger George would be made at me right now something like that speak about George story who always I .

go for the juggler yeah so I just just don't listen to these people on macro. That's that's my whole thing. It's not worth the guille teams are mind that the change of portfolio are torness lock chart of the week.

S P F N R doesn't care, right? So this is a corporate business. Net interest payments are near record lows, and IT says as a percentage of, let's see, net interest payments, one of the .

crazy shots from the rising way period.

So he shows where the fed started hooking rates. Since then, interest payments have gone down. The net interest payments have gone down near record. It's this is not .

a charge crime, but it's there's it's not in it's not really showing the full picture because if you take out a hundred bigger stocks that have these dry get to cash piles, you don't be here's .

the single that, that gets me remember. For years during third, people were saying there's zombie companies all around us and the fed is propping up zombie companies and we've turned the state about forty percent of russia, two thousand companies don't have a profit. yeah. Where are all the failures of companies now that rates have been five percent.

We had higher bank rup in two thousand and twenty twenty, but IT, IT, IT probably wasn't the wave that we should have expected given the, to your point, the years and years of the zombie company talk.

That's that's my point is that these highways tes should have been more ownership on these companies. And if there really without the companies, they would be fAiling left and right. So maybe just maybe they weren't being propped about the fed.

I I think a lot of these three companies were being prompted by the food, the school, the company that rise three billion dollars, whatever, like.

all come on those three money companies, no, propped up by venture capitalists though.

because of free money and all what to see. All these companies want to zero.

We're never going to agree about this, but venture capital does not borrow money.

They don't Operate on leverage. It's not, dude. It's a mindset. It's a mindset of free money.

Come on, i'm sorry, just agree to use to try to use a try monger. You'll go with me. You're smarter. I'm right.

I don't think the venture capitals propped by cash for us, not where do .

you think the cash comes from? Dude, it's IT was the money was free. IT was a party, did not matter cost. Nothing have added s let's move on.

right? A torsen s lock. Another church shows in video is bigger than the video mark cap is bigger than canada, U. K, france, germany and italy.

Almost is biggest japan, which is just in saying that in one thousand nine hundred eighty nine, japan is forty five percent of the global stock market. Now in videos, half as big as as they are. These these are the kind of charge that it's easy to like. Whatever it's this is staying and .

also not actionable. And I feel like market cap comparisons have cost invests lot of money. My self clouded like, oh my god, it's member member one to apple had a trillion dollars that was going to be the top you .

but do you think this is more of a saying how bad things i've got in europe is opposed, how good .

things that that is not wrong but right.

Someone send me this letter from giving any capital, as I don't know who they are, there some good sex so he says, uh, the return equity today. So this is the S M. P.

Five hundred is around twenty percent. Well Operate, protects Operating margins, succeed sixteen percent. I think sometimes investors, or maybe just this investor, forgot how exceptional figures are.

A generation ago in r way of fourteen percent and profit margins of ten percent were considered good h he, then he goes to compare that to the to european start markets. German dex trades for A P of thirteen times, earned twelve percent R V into growing in seven percent. U, K, four, P, E, earthly, eleven point seven times R, V of fifteen percent, or zero to five. Just saying how IT is in, like in IT, is all these big companies, but they've completely changed the dynamics of the S P.

Five hundred is the fundamental stupid. You can't talk about the market. You can talk about the top. And I talk about the bottom.

yeah. So so we are thing less we can. We talk about the being the env of the world economic speaking, which is from the economist. I got some push back from from europeans I got a really nasty and and linton, which you don't get the next what was .

the comment but the one .

I heard from most people yeah but the europeans a bigger safety unit, which is fair yeah um and they list all the other ways. U. S.

Threw up the guns in the school shootings fair. We have, uh, we have a set of problems, I H agree. And uh, there is a piece of fortune where they talked about a the sky from norway.

Who runs? What does the guy do? He runs norway, one point six hundred hundred dollar oil fund, and he says, what point six trillion?

He says, america's attitude.

torture failure is helping propel the nation head of its european counterparts. He says, america's attitude, uh, where is IT? Oh, workers have a Better worklife baLance in europe, but they aren't as ambitions as people are on the U.

S. So that's like that. He's saying less people probably actually live Better in europe. But the ambition in america's, why we're pulling off ahead, economic market speaking and that's that's a going to trade off you stop and thinking you go is IT worth IT like which ones Better where you you take eight weeks off a year, you take an appropriate three P M. And you can work thirty hours a week or not a there's not a right answer.

but it's not yeah it's not right answer IT. So that's a personal preferences ing.

And then the other other piece of push back was any quality which we mention um but I remind people that uh researchers this was also economies wed that two fists of the rise and waging equality of the past four decades has been on done in the past four years so is actually has gotten Better and anyway, that was push back from anal spirit golbin sex via sauro again and his are golbin sex go to .

is me sam o, the king of the vio .

is the microscope f of podcasting. Uh, this is ensuring that shows the ten year turn over of S M P of other constituent. The average going back to nineteen twenty six percent over the past ten users is roughly a third. All companies have chained turn, turn over a ten year period.

This supports I mop, no more stability, less turn over. There's less turn over because there's less junky companies that are getting on out.

Yeah but it's it's still not that far ble at my point here is that like this is this is actually why being index one is so hard because the losing companies draught here, we're bringing some new ones in, right? Like I think this is actually a good diversification selling point. It's it's not just static. The S M P.

let me do the flip side. K, so investors are hold until they are losers, right? So does an index fund unl until until the company gets kicked out, we hold on to their aren't losers until it's a two billion die company down from forty seven and making that up whatever the company is in.

Then you got investors also tend to sell their winners too soon. Oh me is an example. I sold facebook when I was up a hundred percent.

It's probably up two hundred percent, says I saw that I sold netflix, but way last week sold netlist by disney. Credit me, I don't know what say. But the point that are making bennis investors are too quick to sell their best performers, guilty as charged and index find dozen sult winners.

And that's why it's so hard to beat. That is why it's so hard to beat. And the index finds that is in the seven video at one point, seven trillion for .

Better and for worse. Yes, never gna sell those winner too early. That's a good time. Uh, this was a good one from the daily shot.

IT shows rolling year to date performance in the s piece that shows start of the year and so far going back in one thousand nine hundred ninety nine through where we are at, I don't know, three hundred days into the year. This is the one of the best, this is the best year of the century, basically at up to this point. wow.

And let me see. You know, a question about this year. Is this the fastest year on record? How is IT november's?

Because your midst age and your your father, this is what happens. Life speeds up as you get older. And you going to say, all my gosh, is Christmas already and say, oh my god, is something ready here?

You know what? I don't care. I'm never i'm always going to be that guy.

I can't believe that time is going. I'm not too cool for the yet. Always say, you know, i'm sorry.

you know, you know that is though when you this is the reason that I think at being a parent, when you first have your kid in a child as a baby, you are I talk about this slow .

down time slows down .

your constant because you don't do anything when your child is a baby and you sit there and you're like, cheese is only ten in the morning. Can you have lunch yet because you have been up for so long and if feels like you're just you're waiting for time to go and then you like wait for time to put the kid to bed and and then as the kids get all in this more to do, you're constantly doing stuff. And now we've got to go here.

Now we got to drop off here. Now we got to go this game, that game, and you're doing more stuff. And IT IT changes with your perception of time.

And you know so i'm not pretty ally quiet here, but this weekend was a wild we had kobe's flag for ball at eight. We we get breakfast with a quick locking at sack at ten, cope in a part a birthday party eleven. Then logan had be a football at one and could be a baseball one thirty. And then we went to dinner and I wish was like my my head was spinning and you know, more of the same on sunday.

It's crazy a lot. Not .

complaining. I love IT, but it's just IT is just goes to the time .

thing that is, when you go to the the stage of life, you I often talk my life like, what do we used to do before kids? I I have no idea what we do to their time.

all that free time. I had a lot of books. Here's one thing about kids today that definitely do not exist when we were growing up.

I'm i'm much sure it's it's Better go to whatever just is, is the after school activities. And when we when I back in the nineties, I came home, I watch spider man next men, which was awesome. Eight in cereal, maybe frost flakes has morial and then played export for four hours. I is that Better than having an activity after school? We do .

probably not. Definitely not.

You want kids that were doing something, but right every every day after school.

it's something yeah it's for us. It's like IT feels like a surprise when we don't have something like all there's nothing going on the day. Wow, this is bizarre.

Oh, where were we? Okay, but you are you had a conversation with sherburn, the direct retirement at searle for the unlock, which, by the way, we are going to be talking more to our advisor audience.

rampant up there. What's that? There were .

rampant things up. Were rampant things up there. So like and shot for deviser unlock the newsletter at youtube.

I also spoke with meet favor. About his new three fifty one etf. I think that the takers .

tax very interesting.

very, very, very interesting. So ah that will be dropping sometime next week.

The biggest thing is set up to me is sho bryan from truly told me last year alone there were seven hundred and sixty five billion dollars and roll over access from four one case IOS. There is just gonna a ton, a ton of money, and he is ahead that needs financial advice.

And I put this try from your post in the deck, and I don't remember, is this could be one of the things where we spoke about the six, three weeks ago. Have we spoke .

about the start last week? Yes, last game. Me, what you got? What's take?

Elt I do felt a billion. I'm not. No need three hash at three hash IT are, here's my thoughts so we're lucky two charts one thousand hundred and eighty, two thousand and nine and on one side of the one hundred hundred and eight, ninety thousand and twenty two on the other side and it's showing the next media networks by age, adjust IT for inflation.

And look at us, look at us, mulan else. I mean, that's a takeaway, right? It's the last four years have been very kind to 啊 to millennial s everyone。

Millennial s genet. everyone. shot. Yes, the relative .

catch up of mEllen, niels and genetic is prety wild. By the way, silent generation does not mean what .

you think that means. No, we've is that want to fb. That silent generation is the jenee of them. So the greatest generation, then the silent generation, then the boomers. O so sound generation is like the genius that no one .

ever thinks to talk. Yeah yeah. What we also got a lot of comments on last week. I see why equals counter year. Yes, a lot .

obvious. It's way to think of that. Like the greatest generation, like our grandparent generation, is just not so. You know, when you go to pride in the summer and you see the old, the guys walking with their hats that that serve in the military, no, here's thing you to think that those are world were veterans. And it's kind of hard.

There are no more. What are two veterans? I mean, I know this probably a handful, but there in the nineties, oh, I know. I mean.

think I hold that diamond was in saving private ryan, and that came out in one thousand nine hundred ninety nine or something, right? Member, he he flashes four and he's old. The time hanks of my diamond.

my demand.

right, paycheck to paycheck. This is from x IOS. They did a look at bank of amErica car data and they said, a among ourselves, making one hundred fifty k year or more nearly double the median house income, twenty percent live paycheck to paycheck using their definition of paycheck c to paycheck um and then they say how this is a study and how can that be and then this is the answer from their senior economist.

One reason is that higher income households may have bought larger, more expensive homes and consequently have bigger mortgage ages, and often, along with bigger homes, come bigger than bigger chance cause property tax as the inutility. But so is not like people who make six figures living paycheck to paycheck are like in the poor house. They still have this financial set.

Yes, yes, they bought bigger houses in technical. They're still saving in that house. And building equity is just that they probably spent more than they should have because there are income rose.

Yes, I don't know what the wine is and is a person to person. But at some point, like you're spending will rise fast than your income.

Yes, for the people that that's the reason and they make the point to that. A lot of the page page c stuff doesn't take into account the fact that people are already saving in four one kids and it's just coming off automatically. We don't think IT.

Okay, this is a question that I hate. Are you Better off than you were four years ago? Gale asked this.

And they say the majority of americans feel worse off than four years ago, so that the economic confidence indicator, and they say fifty two percent of people feel worse off, thirty nine percent say Better, and nine percent say were the same. And if you took an objective data, housing Prices, rop, forty percent. Black market is up eighty percent.

Network is of fifty percent over the past four years. And if you remember four years ago, guess we are living through the pandemic. People were still wearing masks. We had all these weird rules about going inside places. Schools were opening and closing, if you object, will look at your off ten year, four years ago.

And IT has nothing to do with the president, right? So this this is not a question that people answer honestly when they answer this question that they're really answering, who am gonna vote for, right? Like this. This is another sentiment question that you can just throw out the window. IT doesn't IT doesn't mean anything.

Well, yes, I know I think that you're right that objectively, if you would just look at people's bank accounts, their real estate and their broke accounts over time accounts, if they have one objectively mostly countries.

but you put a number, i'd say eighty percent of the population is doing Better .

than they were four years. Yeah, I would do with that. But but IT doesn't ter in the sunset like there is definitely a mood in the country.

But look at this up.

You don't you? You with that, there is definitely a mood of the country. Yes.

but I think this is going to question I think you could now throw out IT might have made sense in the past. Now you can throw out the window because of how polis everything let go. Get this dex one from the federal reserve assessment of your own financial well being going back twenty seventeen.

It's basically flat, right? It's about seventy five percent of people, seventy, seventy, eighty percent someone that range say my financial well being, i'm doing good, i'm doing fine. But the national assessment keeps going down. yes. So this so my point is that like how you ask question, if you say are you Better off over four years ago ever now instinctly goes as split al question I know IT i'm going, but if you ask power you're doing on your own and don't put politics in IT.

you say I do great. I don't even I like hesitate even share these thoughts. But but whatever I feel like feel funded by this or is this like we live in like a post political world? Or maybe i'm projecting that like I are going to judge about this yesterday. I feel like sort of people are are less on the edge and more over than they were in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. But perhaps i'm just that .

meet you. I I am totally over. I want this to be over. I I think the I wish we had like a week long election cycle. I don't I don't need to be eighteen months or .

whatever or along IT is is way too long. So like I do kind of feel like a lot of the country would agree with that, but I also don't know. I'm like literally just making that up if i'm just projected my thoughts into the rest of the country.

Yeah some people probably love IT. Some people are really into this and they go into the battle every day. And I don't know I I do thoughts on election polls in beddy markets because I thought that the the lesson we took from twenty sixteen in from twenty twenty, pretty all the all of the in between elections there is that you can't really trust the polls anymore.

Like you can't trust not not like saying the pulse ers are are putting their finger on the scale and they are they're leading us a stray but is like what percentage people actually what percentage of people in your life would answer a phone call from pollster? Answer antonius ly one percent of people you don't like. How many people do they have to go through you to get the people that they actually get for the pole? I know they're doing the best they can.

but I I guess i'm surprised I got call, I don't know my answer I I know somebody I G up I mean, I said so I got, look at the election night now I get time so yeah who who answers I don't know that .

i'm surprised at the amount of people who take who live and die by these polls and the election bedding markets saying like look at the polls at the look at the beddy markets, it's they take IT everyday the movement as fact and I thought the whole lesson is posed to be, well, well, let's pump the breaks and like we maybe we the whole the way to do in is like, we don't know so just be careful I don't know how anyone can have a certainty either way at this point. Yeah with the election, that's my stance.

So everyone has an opinion whether whether or not like you really are watching the news and like are really personally invested in the outcome, everybody's an opinion. I just think like for me, it's been eight years, you know I mean, just like you can't it's hard to keep up the same level of anxiety because it's just exhAusting.

Yes, but I I don't know that that's going to go away. Seems like this might be the new world. I don't know.

So what what? Nicholas had some thoughts in the Betty market. It's only to me because I was fifty, fifty and forty five, fifty five and sixty, sixty to me.

That's a toss up regardless. But some people can take that as like, no, this is gospel. I take the Better markets goal. I I can't believe anyone in the markets .

thinks that way. So now we have betting we have liquid betting markets. A Robert had just rolled this out.

I guess it's it's it's been legalized market.

So so there's a lot of volume on poly market. And people are say like listen like like actual matters, like actual dollars, not just opinions, are putting their money where their mouth is and they're saying it's I even want to throw a number but it's good to trump out to know what the actual number they call this. Ah it's sixty, okay.

So they call this says IT doesn't it's it's really noise until you get to seventy percent in the bedding. Mark, I guess it's like the energy that I gave us. The weather like this is six person cent chance in this like the rain.

But the funny thing, hilo at seventy percent.

you are so even then okay so anyway but there's this a there's a welcoming and from france has been reported on an italy market that's about thirty forty million dollars and nichol is made a point that I was like, oh yeah of course like um now we can prove this but me out it's IT sounds reasonable that if you're betting that sort of money, this is like real money and perhaps just perhaps it's to influence other markets.

So if there is if there is a perceived. Outcome like the outcome for one winner over the other, in this case, trump IT has geopolitical impacts on currencies. Sure, some certain commodities. So they're using this study .

and oil and so use they're using .

this thirty million dollars to push the narrative here and then investing like two hundred million dollars or whatever is here. So this is sort of I don't really keep about the thirty because i'm really going to make money on th.

Epace o r t he w hatever l ike t hat t ake. I just surprised that even of markets, people who've seen this stuff that like the markets are we talking about, there are not always right in the fact that people are taking IT as gospel. That's something it's surprising to me. But I guess people .

are again looking for certainty is interesting that the market seems not I mean, there's there's no volatility and it's like you don't like all this exeter about the political outcome and all that sort of stuff now that the markets and bill, but it's IT is interesting that the market seems to not be bothered.

So would IT be more surprising to you or less surprising if we had like, let's say, we have the election night and whatever, I don't know how long IT takes to figure who the winner is. We have the winner and there's just not much movement in markets at all. With that surprising more than seeing a big move? No, okay. I think I think that, that be shocking to a lot of market people. If we just had kind of a stock markets up fifty basis points are down fifty basis points, not really a big move in the direction.

No, I I want to be surprised anything if you tell me that somebody went to the market down two thousand eight percent. I mean, I know I want to be surprised. Um some of the american dreams, so visual capitalist, somebody sends to us the american dream costs four point four million dollars and they broke IT down by the lifetime costs. So retirement, only a new car or wedding, raising two children, owning a home, pets, unitization.

I can, I can afford a few from to be paid four point four million dollars. Those stuff here. Sorry.

don't me out back. So what do we think I think any time .

you add these cumulative talks like this, it's it's gone to look weird yeah and that because if if you ask someone how much money you're going to make over your whole career, like I don't think people would have, people would understand the I I thought something I saw doctor posted on twitter couple months ago saying i'm in my I look forty years old and by the time I retire, my lifetime runnings will be like ten million dollars.

And I felt like ten, nine doulas. That's crazy. And I looked up I think the numbers probably for a doctor, like two fifty years, something to get. I the numbers, you know, not this direction, not accurate, but the commute total probably makes things seem worse than that actually, as most people. Is that .

fair .

higher? Here's here's a question, how many people actually get .

to these levels of what spending? Yeah, eight hundred thousand dollars for car, by the way, speak out of car is, dude, I still has my car and then I even heard anything from them. I am just, I think, rabbit put five thousand miles on lonner .

driving in the ground. Man.

I don't care. Good as well. I like. But just what sort of customer services they've had my car since August.

I heard from them once. That is crazy part supply problem.

I have no idea. I don't care. Keep IT. Okay.

back to the Amber of american dreams. So if you bake an average of one hundred fifty k for thirty years as the average, that's four and hf million dollars. So that's the number. So does that square a little Better?

And when you put in that way, you put in that way, but where we go next, the wall street .

journal had a peace on how inflation has called. But americans show seething over Price Prices, seething. That's that's like, that's not just mad.

There's seething. They interview this woman and he says it's hard to adjust. A fifty four old engineer from doyon pensylvania, you lived with these stable Prices of your life mentally is hard.

And she's saying, like we said, that makes some changes. And the thing is, like, Prices haven't been stabled your whole life. There has been inflation. And I looked at this, I had chart.

and you never get to win this bend.

No, I just, I making a point. You just go with me OK. So inflation in the two thousand tens, which included a period of deflation, obviously coming out of the crisis, was nine percent, roughly twenty percent in total for the whole decade, right? So we had, and he goes like one point seven percent inflation, very low.

But we still had twenty percent rise in overall cute Prices. We've now roughly had the same cumulo rise in the first uh, five years of this century, right? It's been twenty two percent cumulative flame.

So my whole thing is that we could have zero percent for the rest of the decade. And people for a long time would still obviously, the commuter for this decade of program, what? Thirty percent? Now it's going to be higher, maybe even more.

Thirty five percent, after all, said done depending what IT comes in that. But the fact that we pulled forward and compressed IT, that's the thing people can handle. They need the slow but surprise and it's kind of early access. If you look at all the stats of the people who go bankrupt from a lima lottery is way higher, the people who just have a regular table income.

So the people who slowly, surely build their wealth in their four one, caring their I R A from h twenty five to sixty five, there are far less likely to go broke than the person who wins the latter age twenty five. Impose IT all forward. That same thing applies to inflation.

It's the early inter, the pull forward, the volatility. That the thing that affects you psychologically, does that make sense? Yeah so like that that's the problem. Like IT IT could be the same cumulo Price rise, but if you compressed the time horizon, IT totally screws with your perception of everything.

Yeah well, are you are you have you mentally adJusting to the Price of everything? I'm still like twenty four hours for sale with chicken like that. I don't know at what point will that not bother my mind. IT might take before years to dig us that .

I don't know. I guess the the new Normal thing is just kind of I don't offers anything that i've looked at them like oh my gosh, it's probably housing Prices for me like when I first bought my house for what they just sold the house that we so we bought our first house we live in for ten years. We bought IT in in two thousand eight crisis.

So we brought IT at a fire sale Price. Then we sold out for a heavy gain. And the people that just sold IT again after that, we sold that too because we get the zilla, you know so they sold IT for how much that the housing practicing to me is probably the .

most shocking yeah that's going to take a longer time, less come in on politics. I just, you know, just to get ahead of .

the comment or whatever .

are you going back? I understand that like not having to really worry about who's in the White houses is a position of privilege. I understand that.

So for everybody that's going to email and say, what is easy for you to say, I get IT understand, okay, we are privilege. I get IT. Okay, everyone.

there is nothing you can say about politics. That's the problem.

We just delete the whole thing.

I know now it's pretty best, but I don't I think we said anything .

that's too I know.

but you we're get ils OK from bloomberg back to Normal food inflation. Americans are now spending the same percentage of expenditures on food as they did before the pandemic. So food makes up seven point four percent of consumer spending, the lower before the pandemic.

And a twenty and I don't know who wrote this one for bloomberg, uh, but they're saying, like what if I was transitory? They look at the the city back to average, I know. But the question is what happens to make IT come back? I think that's the thing that people are when .

you say IT come back without my Price levels.

No, no, no. That's never going back higher, higher Prices. What's the make?

What's the thing that makes inflation? You get back to five percent. What to take?

Have no idea you you what you see, what up to oil yesterday, down six percent of the day.

goes in the world in the lost two decades are almost y .

there was like concerns about like the end of oil like that we would run out of something.

yes. And obviously, I don't know what about energy.

but like obviously, terminate energy, clean energy just is a lot supply, which is a good thing.

So oil is now at sixty seven dollars a barrel. That first happened in the spring of two thousand and seven are .

it's on a real basis.

So even on the namal basis, we've oil gone nowhere. Foremost two decades. It's insane. Yeah.

here's that. This is not rate speed about things going up. Bm bride tweeted, seven years, the thirty he sees me. The thirty year mortgage is now seven percent. That sucks.

It's unbelievable because the conventional wisdom is always okay. Rates go up much hier. You have the same love of activity.

Prices have to fall. Instead, the housing markets gone. No, no, no, no. Rates go up, activity falls. Prices go up a little bit, and that's what's going to happen again.

I think I was also joan Tracy. Um they had somebody aren't talking about the spread between mortgage rates and the ten year. Like why is this so high? It's like investors demand a premium because it's the term is like there's negative convexity and the mortgage bond market.

that's a very good piso's.

Yeah because of rates go down, people prepare and it's IT like you just you get your money back and I have to our interest rates and we know we think that rates are probably to go down to people are probably to refinance. And so mortgage buyers, mortgage bond buyers are demanded a premium as well. They should.

Yeah, yeah, that was a very good epsom time graph. Things to guys, right? h.

The wall street journal to the bank crossing way of thinking, america's prime for home motivation resurgence. And they show the amount of spending has been considerably. They talk about the month of thirty five trillion home equity.

They did this poll where they say they recently pull almost five hundred households, and they broke down to the two groups of people for their innovation. Thirty something is planning work in the sixty thousand dollar range and older home owners eying update. IT will cost thirty thousand dollars, and they say the former are motivated by marriages, babies and career changes.

They're less sensitive. The interest rates and prony remodel sooner. And I think you and I fall into this category, and here's what i'm going to make the pitch for. People ask a lot of line of credit questions and stuff and renovating. If you locked in the three percent mortgage, your capacity to borrow is way, way higher than you think.

Because if you had to buy a new home right now, you were forced to to take that seven percent mortgage in a higher home Price, you will be borrowing more money. So that's why i'm OK taking out of home actually on a and barring a little bit, because if I was in the market for house, i'd be borne more anyway. Now the apps, the the fruit al person would say, no, no, you save, save the difference.

That's the thing. And that makes sense. Me too.

You know, there should be not that I would read IT um but there should be like A A new home on or manual a handbag, if you will, for some of the things that you need to know like for example, oh, your brother has filters that need to be changed and if it's leaking, don't just put a bucket underneath for four years. Actually look into IT and I say this because .

forty years three .

I did know what I move to here here yeah five years um half life .

changed a bucket.

We changed a bucket. It's called to my house. There's a big difference between sixty degrees inside and sixty is outside. I learned yesterday I took a warm shower because my hands were starting to freeze my fingers.

So you have no heat in your house right now.

This, I could not here to my house. So I called my eight fact guy.

shout her off why you sell your power, sell your pillow on, if that's going, if you need .

to the boiler. He shows me the boiler and the filter is like, Michael, do yes, stand top of the stuff. And I, like nobody ever told me so.

so we were going to get a new dishwasher. Our dishwashers finally kicked the bucket because we have used at all the time, at least one today. And I mean, to show you picture, because got a nice new rack for putting things in nicer, in orderly and other, like if you buy this lower model, you have to change the filter once a year.

If you buy this higher n model, you do not change the filter. And i'm looking at the low run model if we currently have. And I go to my wife like i've never changed the filter in a dish washing what I did know that dish ashes had a filter.

Yeah, did you no obvious? Ly, you don't the way lower this? Wh.

of course not. Actually, I rapped. I came from my house. Like, so I was, so I was laughing with him last night when I when my hot water when out last night, i'll be fixed today. Um but I quit me.

What a husband am I on T, D, O? You basically have the teenage hurdles running house over there.

So I felt the bathtub for the boys, and I didn't realize that the the hot water had count out. So, Robin, so they could skip on. That is fine.

He was good. I didn't think about. So I I felt the back tub and I boiled like eight parts of water, did nothing, did absolutely nothing. What was still easily.

So living in media times.

yeah, how do people do like them? But anyway, so I called, I was joking that I called by hal five, four years ago, my air condition count out, and all that I needed to do was replaced the filters. You know, like there's like you have like vans up top in the ceiling and there's just that little tiny filter that you get from home deep up for four bucks. Do you know about that?

yes. Yeah.

of course you do because you're homework. Ter, I didn't know about that.

I I look my father and what tells me to do this, I don't I don't know them. Here's my one pitch and renovation project to your point, tweet there on his what I will say if you want to do, if you really want to do home renovation project, you, anna, redo that kitchen and bath like I don't think you wait. I don't I don't think you wait and say i'm going to wait for I don't think Prices are going any lower, if that's your thinking. I I think if you if you have the means you do that, I don't think you wait because I think if you wait a year, Prices going to be higher for another year, the Price is going to be on hire. I don't think the demand for this stuff is going down.

Insert the gentle for love huit mean, what are you waiting for?

By the way? I think they are .

going to back and they're seeking to show, we spoke shower, another movie, every I last summer, terrible movie, that's get me the nice.

not a good .

movie. seria. Ga.

so that's my kind of horror.

Vie, oh, ryan Philippo loved that guy in the nineties of friday. Prince, you would definitely a big friday. Prince guy, free prince. Union.

were you not come clean? I mean, she's all that is. Listen, SHE had glasses on and her hair in a pony town to took the glasses off, put the pony down .

and she's beautiful. I was not another team movie guy that was .

a serious intu ced to Chris Evans that was funny. Yeah um OK, oh.

actually the movie is scaries of body email ed us IT is alloweth after all, by the way, we have a halloween party on that day night which i'm not a halloween party. Guy h 慢慢 shock you。

So what are you going to wear for your customer?

So I wasn't I like not involved in this. So Robin like picked out like SHE got i'm going to be like coach table and she's to be a ref. So coach, that's a coach of the giants.

So SHE got me like up a head. peace. I don't know. I don't know what you got me. I walk at the like, we do not want to do that. I hate the juice can still get taking anymore.

You should wear your, you should wear your heads at your right .

now I should be a podcasts or not.

I'm saying where the headache was the coach was .

the headsman no SHE got me headset. Okay um but I just I don't want to be like I hate us but anyway oh i'm sorry so here's so I just strike myself twice um so somebody detailed us asking about her movies like flash movies from the eighties Jason, four years Michaels friday ta and he was wondering if those movies are like so data that if somebody was to wear a hockey mask on halloween, what kids today just think that they were being a goal? As a good question, I think I know we .

went to a there is this house ten minutes from house that these people do a crazy halloween like it's their houses on the trail, and they do these crazy housing decorations. People walk by and look at them, and like you walk by self, self and moves and jump out at you, whatever. And there was a micromegas mask and freak the kids out. You know, you'd never heard of seen that movie, so I think it's still .

plays interesting. I'm not a big fan of like haunted, jump out people even not like harm movies. I took kobi a one a couple of years ago. He wasn't scared because he had no idea, but he was like dark. And I was like, I did not enjoy us too scared for me.

You can have even being a whole movie.

guys like snow, spook walks.

whatever they called. Okay, IT dos, dos doesn't do IT for me. Question from my listener, we are expecting our second child this months and are coming up on school decisions for oldest.

We are thinking through the public versus private case twelve, spreading the prospect of the opportunity costs of private schools are ganging one of the seven figures over time. However, there are upsides IT that we value. We have access to highly read public scholes in my area.

So this is an option as well since you have Young ones. And true, we thought through this at length, curious european on declaimer. This is obviously like this is up to you.

My thinking is if you have a highly rid public school, I don't see the really, I think, private school unless you have a kid that needs a certain specific area or something, I don't do you think the private versus public is really going to matter for your kid if you have a good public school? That's my that's how I think about IT. And this is I went to a private school and I grew up.

Are you did well.

catholic school does that count? Yeah.

I would have been .

just finally with public school. That's my line of thinking.

I don't want to I don't nothing about private school.

I'm sure those people who have very strong opinions on this.

But IT depends on where you live. I have the great public schools where I live. So I would you even .

according me to send your kids are going to public schools yeah, my kids getting out of daycare, going to public schools would like the bigelow rays of forgotten in the past ten years. That's just my line of thinking, especially if this person's is a great shit warrior.

So let's let's be i'm a man of the people. I'm a public school guy. Okay.

that's that's what I am. Or you could do IT. You could split your children up and send one to private to public and Better.

But depends like if the option is set them to like a crappy public school, like like why would you do that? If you if you could afford to not do that. So I don't know that .

the depends are highly okay. This is a good feedback on the I was one of the earliest people had taken unsupervised ride in a way more here in phoenix fund in, yes, to look magic about five minutes. Then he gets out boring.

There are one of my favorite to do the visitors. However, given a chance, I will take uber ten times that attend. why? Because they're painfully slow and kind of annoying.

They won't go a millisecond over the speed limit. They won't pass public buses. They take dum outs. They often won't drop out your exact location and will make you walk. Ea, i've seen videos where there's pump red a bumper traffic in the way more won't just knows out in get in line. So no one left them in. So I can see the the paintless slow part would really get to me because i've been in uber in new york where there are waving through five lanes of traffic and are getting you there fast .

like sounds like socialism.

I can see how that would that would be annoying, actually makes sense me so often alright uh I guess my stories okay um kids puote middle night, we will prety down looking kids puking middle night. But the other night my daughter, my oldest, came in the boom and said, hey, I threw up. And I walk in a room as a big pile of sitting there.

Oh.

no, not at all. And SHE SHE for thirty six hours, couldn't keep anything down, could not keep water down, couldn't keep foot down. He throw up everything.

And when that happened, your kid IT basically just puts IT speed bump in your life like it's your whole life has to stop when your kid is sick like that my wife had to take her to hospital. I V floods. Um voice, been luck with that, but it's it's tough.

He is Better now. Oh good. Kept shooting in middle and they'll like a man and we've been so lucky.

And then SHE throws so many kinds. Awful, awful. Uh, i've got a team. fashion.

Take OK kay, as this is coming .

from a guy who is mr. J. Q. In a high school, remember right, vote what is literally mr.

G Q. Like like that was a superlative that you want.

like in your senior year year book you vote on. Like this person's most likely to, uh, be A C E O. Somebody, this person.

I got mr. G, Q, meaning our best stress on ice. So we've been going to some of the the high school football ames for my kids now.

They are friends are getting older. They want to go to the games and whatever run around. They don't watch the games.

They just run to friends. I've got to take a teen fashion. It's time to step up up teens because I think the teens look like they work from home.

They were in opposite pants in judges, and they're not, you know, where's the the genes with a flaming shirt in the vast? That's what I wore in high school to the foobar games. Let me come on that.

And that still plays today. You know, like I didn't see one pair of denna on a kid in high school. They are wearing jogger. Or you like the apps like step up up kids like have some respect in yourself. As my team fashion take.

I was a slob. I was a slab of a looking kid in high school. I definite like stoned all the time.

Just backwards hat, dirty backwards hat. I know not a team fashion guy. I get my surprise. You okay.

I'm saying like I think the pandemic probably changed things number like I I am shocked at the amount of kids that are way to lay back like have some respecting yourself .

to how about the world?

There are a lot more .

models is the is prominent.

I don't mind that I .

am not a lie. I forgot. I forgot last week. I, I know, no, I didn't forget that was this week. sorry. On the, on the plane at home, I was sitting next to a dude that was using a handkerchiefs is just so gross who uses a handkerchiefs, still was wiping his nose for four hours.

Yeah, it's gross. I, I mean, throw away.

It's walking season up, up in the northeast, great, great walking weather. And I was walking around my town, which I do frequently on phone calls, business phone calls.

I thing, and I ls me, I see.

Always walked Y, I saw a delivery for like the big water drugs. I think the brand is cystinosis like the big, the big ones that go like, I guess, upside down into somebody's water tower. How is that still a thing? Doesn't good though. You have those, no.

the water cooler .

for the water cooler for the house. You have that.

oh, no, not for the health, but those things. When I was in college, we lived in philadelphia for a semester. And we had that. We had one of those in our house, in our apartment, and that was the greatest thing ever on the weekends, just the cold water waiting for you.

We had that in coach to, but but for homes, what's with the brita?

Oh, okay, I don't know. Yeah, that's that's a good point. Most refrigeration come with the water filter too.

I listen to the market. So obviously there's the for there. So maybe i'm wrong.

I've noticed two bubble ban, bubbles number one, bubble number one, giant notes. Not this once specifically. I don't know what this is.

This is called zoo gig anti c water bottles. I walk into target and there's a whole section of oversize water bottle, a whole section. This will not be a thing of five years.

The thing is, that starts Young. Did you ever? What about your kid?

No, oh yeah. I know kids are.

What about this? My kids have water bottles at all times, like my kids have the extremely cups. They have a water, the sports water.

But do we don't need forty seven different variations of? What about us? There's another thing that we don't need forty seven varieties of that, I think, is that a bubble? Greek alga.

you know how much I love to grow? Show a big greek y yoga guy .

who doesn't look weak up. Do we need forty brands?

I agree. There's too many of them. Get the zero sugar once they taste just as good. I don't do that.

You don't need the fat and sugar.

I did. I did IT OK I recommendations. Can I go first, please? Alright, you said you went to see the movie trap in the matters recently to go when you explain in the plant to me, you said, hey, it's a serial killer who is brought to a concert with his daughter and they're trying to trap men. I thought, wow, actually he said, the bendings kind of ridiculous.

but the premise that I kind ludar ous, I will insert one more thing. I went with a friend. And so we had a great time, literally chuckling at the absurd of IT. Had I watched IT by myself.

of my culture, probably have only. This is one of the worst movies i've seen in a long time.

Oh, my lord, was IT bad fun.

I not just bad, but bad because IT took itself seriously. That's the problem.

you know, I would so .

that I thought josh artnet was very and pretty fan. Um there are no serial killers anymore. I like, I don't think serial killers can exist anymore. And also he's a parent to the serial killer. There is no way you could have .

time to be a serial killer as a parent.

Uh, IT was, I like the cabinet in the woods. One in this movie was really, really bad. Again, a print way.

Yeah, yeah. No shit. But OK so you didn't even have fun like I. I had fun watching IT.

I had to finish IT just because I but the IT just IT was after the plot itself like how we kept escaping IT was IT didn't make any sense exactly.

okay.

Speaking of series, killer is movie and netflix s called woman of the hour where by in a canada I think he directed IT too there was a true story in the seventies of a guy which is obviously got to be the height of zero oculis the seventies, I feel all of them place in the seventies that was a serial killer decade and IT was this woman who went on the dating game show.

You know, where you have one woman sit and then there are three guys, and you aside, you can't see them and answer questions IT was that show and there was a guy who was literally seriously who went on that shown SHE picked him as a date. It's one of those stories where the the true story of nature of IT is Better than the movie itself, but isn't like ninety minutes. So not bad.

But it's one of those one. I haven't heard the street OK. They think I killed anywhere between ten and one hundred and thirty people. seventies.

Speaking of daily shows how how great was signal that? Member.

you and I home from school for sure.

What was who that was? A good name. Create something.

Chis.

start. Look is a great hair.

not bad. Uh, I started washing the pack on two opposite des in. I guess i'm going on, Michael.

Bet that takes here. He's my one nip. C with that good .

show not even when nobody only npia is not with .

the plant but it's with just um I can't ferl but him in the the fat suit in the makeup like it's hard for me to take this seriously knowing that easy all the makeup stuff .

OK I understand come back, come back to us after epo, okay.

two hundred of them. It's I I like IT.

but that my in epic okay um .

what do you got?

I I saw adam name in a film critical. I very much enjoy tweet something about a movie like a hard movie that he like will judge people's taste based on this movie. And my god, this doesn't look familiar to me.

So I google did the movie is kill less, by the way, kill list. So I google IT and IT shows been look at the dog and says, IT shows i'm already watched check and i'm thinking to myself, wall, that's a cool future. How doesn't know that I watch this.

I wait to make IT. I don't remember watch you this. I'd never see this movie.

So I fired IT up. I think it's, i'm prime and IT turns that I did watch this movie. And IT is a very good movie.

So who knew that you watched IT?

Google did look like this. I put on the duck is already watched check interesting .

and I.

I have no memory this movie until when I O very good. I fort t watches. I feel that you could .

get in trouble with some other types of adult entertainment and that um .

I was talking to speak of har terrified three crosses fifty million thousand the world by box office and officially becomes the highest growing unrated film, even surpassing the highest grossing nc seventeen films damme in the only the the creator twitter that I I don't love the terrifying movies is just a not necessarily for me, but IT is incredible. This people love this shit. Horror is like really killing at the box off.

I guess the the the horror is the one thing that can really break through those was like micro caps that like right because .

they cost nothing to make. So one of those movies is a move called strange darling, which I I believe i've planted the table on here before. what? I love this movie, and I, so here's what I do, but I know about you. I don't watch trailers for these movies. So like yeah glad to too like to the trailer I guess if it's on but I I don't go seeking a trailer .

because they give a way much today.

So I just I rode dog so like I was talking to a to a arts and a couple of of the guys we about another movie called mad that I saw shown fantasy tweet about so I mean, if I see shown fta eet about a heart movie I watched and I had no idea was about, and arts is like, oh, I could already provide guess a twist and why you watch the trailers, just go watch a movie.

I just go watch a movie no, expections said, anyway, strange darling is one of these such movies. Like, again, I could pride guess so it's like, just go watch the movie. Strange darling, table powder great with IT i'm sorry .

i'm here the opposite to me of sean fantasy and these movies don't do IT for me so no fence .

student I just want no that's .

taken we watched mss doubt are all .

our kids all the .

day so good um I don't think there's anyone past represent who couldn't played that part that revenue played. He's the only person who could have play that .

did I call them the greatest commit action of all time?

The thing is I don't think he's there's no comedic actors who could also pull off what he did in good, good hunting as well.

He said, one, I saw that movie home because I saw movie, I, I, I, W, W, A, six years old.

Some really had a lot of divorce movies that you don't see much more.

It's true. I love that more.

Yeah, IT really did in. My kids were in to IT to .

how gray was piers Brown in the whole world. Cause if the kids were great, what what you are? I plan happier election week. I know that next week, happy halloween.

We need to teese our election special.

We're doing, oh yeah. So no, what are your thoughts next to election night? So on wednesday, myself then, john Kelly, we are going to talk about the markets reaction to the election. And maybe there will be a big reaction。

Maybe there will be will record animal spirits as usual on tuesday. So the wednesday show be, well, i'll share my thoughts about if this person is this will happen, if this person is that happen. So I have those two forks made up the two past, but yeah, they were. Don't go on, live on to the compound emails, animal spirits of compound news 点 com， see next.