cover of episode The Cost of the American Dream (EP.384)

The Cost of the American Dream (EP.384)

2024/10/30
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Animal Spirits Podcast

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Ben Carlson
一位专注于投资教育和策略的金融专家,通过博客和播客分享投资见解。
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Michael Batnick
作为 Ritholtz Wealth Management 的管理合伙人和研究总监,Michael Batnick 是一位知名的投资专家和播客主持人。
Topics
Michael Batnick: 本期节目讨论了市场叙事的变化、利率上升的原因、为什么不应该听取对冲基金经理的宏观经济建议、标普500指数难以战胜的原因、年收入15万美元却仍然入不敷出的现象、2020年代通货膨胀的痛苦、7%的抵押贷款利率以及Waymo的缺点等等。他认为市场叙事易变,人们容易过快地将市场波动归因于某种原因,而忽视了其他可能性;人们花费太多时间试图将自己的个人叙事强加于市场,而市场走势可能更多地与资金流向有关;永远不要听取对冲基金经理的宏观经济建议,他们在这方面很糟糕;多年来关于“僵尸公司”的论调并未在利率上升后得到证实,这表明这些公司可能并非完全依赖于美联储的支撑。 Ben Carlson: 他同意市场叙事易变的观点,并补充说明有时市场是错的,叙事需要修正;近期十年期国债收益率上升,并非政策失误,而是对经济衰退“保险”的撤销;标普500指数的成分股轮换率较低,这使得指数基金难以被超越,因为其持有的公司既有赢家也有输家;人们对自身经济状况的评估往往受到政治因素的影响,而非客观数据;通货膨胀的累积效应会影响人们的心理感受,即使未来通货膨胀率下降,其影响仍会持续很长时间;通货膨胀的突然爆发比缓慢上涨更易造成心理冲击;抵押贷款利率上升,房屋交易活动减少,但房价并未大幅下降,这与传统观点相悖;Waymo 的自动驾驶汽车速度慢且令人沮丧,体验不如优步;超大号水瓶可能是一个短期流行趋势,未来几年可能会消退;希腊酸奶品牌过多,存在市场泡沫。

Deep Dive

Chapters
Michael and Ben discuss the changing narratives in the markets, focusing on why interest rates are rising and the misinterpretation of recent price actions.
  • Rates rose to 5% last year, and now they are coming down.
  • The unwind of recession insurance buyers is pushing rates back up.
  • Economic strength justifies higher treasury yields.

Shownotes Transcript

On episode 384 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick) and Ben Carlson) discuss: changing narratives in the markets, why interest rates are rising, why you should never take macro advice from hedge fund managers, why the S&P 500 is so hard to beat, living paycheck-to-paycheck on $150k, why the 2020s inflation was so painful, 7% mortgage rates, the downside of Waymo, and much more!

This episode is sponsored by Global X and Kraneshares.

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Find complete show notes on our blogs:

Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense)

Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor)

Feel free to shoot us an email at [email protected] with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.

 

Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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