The Bitcoiners Won (EP.386)
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Welcomes to animal spirits a shell about markets, life and investing. Join Michael batna and then carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and ben are sold their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of red host wells management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of bride holds, wealth management maintain positions in the security disgust in this podcast.

Welcome to animal spirits with Michael and ben. You know, i've learned about hindside bias probably from tony ent at some point and it's the thing that after an event happened that you know the outcome, everyone looks back and life is easier to fear on the review meal right inside twenty.

twenty. Yes, like bedding on the fairs yesterday. How week of patridge? What was I thinking? actually?

Better table on the giants. Just the money. Just the money line. What was .

I thinking? yards. And nobody. right. This is what happened.

The election. The election results .

didn't go the way some people thought that would IT wasn't really closest people thought I would be, I guess. And then immediately the hindsight bias machine kicks in. And then you you look at these stories to go, oh yeah, oh, of course.

Oh, but it's just funny because most of the reasons weren't really be given ahead of time. It's always after the fact that the reasons fall in to placing you go. Oh, of course, this is what happened or of course that's what happened.

But did did did you not experience hindi bias yourself?

Because I sure did all of course, of course but it's it's funny how just quickly that especially with the elections that that happens and it's like, okay.

And this and I mean, one of my first thoughts were domus, you dumb mother, we've been .

spending the .

less two years talking about how said people are with the economy. Even though i'm using air quotes, things are fine. Like why didn't we see this coming?

Yeah so I told john burn more duck, I thought had the chart of the week where he he's from the financial times and he says, has a structure is every governing party facing election in the develop country is your loss voter share for the first time it's ever happens? This goes back to world war two. You could see the line here.

Actually, if you look at the red line, the us. Is actually near the top. So I guess the U.

S. Lost voter share, the incumbent, but to allegory in other countries. So this is basic. Every every leader in power, every a party in power, los voter share to the other party or the other leader that was running against them. So all fed up. So this was inflation, was a global phenomenon, this incumbent being the one that gets blamed with a global phenomenon. So that this, to your point, makes sense in you go out like the the wedding singer, that information would be Better if you gave me to me yesterday.

But this the thing we had this information yesterday, like I took a picture of of CNN x polls. They ask, they ask voters how you feel about the way things are going in the u. And only seven percent were enthusiastic.

Forty three percent were just satisfied in two thousand, nine percent were angry. And if you asked us before the election to fill this out, like, just take a guess, I fill this out, we would probably would have been relatively close and still were surprised at the action of the election. What right?

Yeah I would say dissatisfied in angry is probably little higher than I would have thought just because I still was I don't know, forty nine, forty eight election or something. But yeah, are very high.

Just further evidence of what we're talking about, jeff stine tweet and rough sixty seven percent of voters rate of the economy as not so good slash poor sixty seven a percent, a shocking in poor number amid a hot labor market bomb stacks, much low inflation grown GDP but widespread for voted to satisfy or what the economy has been clear for years. So but you're right, this this has been a week of a narrative dynamics and hindside bias.

And an economist waited. Economists are going to have to reckon with the fact that the public would have preferred a slower economy, slower recovery with much higher unemployment, as long as Prices have been stable and come on. That's that's obviously not IT.

And so Colin chen, Colin rose said, people are mad because many economists spend the last few years saying government spending dinner cause inflation. Inflation didn't hurt people. And then I was okay to spend more money and brought the unpopular policies and student that forgiveness so called I think any quotes and said, in my opinion, some economists are reaching the wrong conclusion for the election.

It's important because you after a results happen like I want to takeaway and if you get IT wrong going into IT, that's okay, right? Like nobody sees the future, but then you also get the lessons wrong. But that's that's dangerous because that's that's a of for a future failure.

So Colin twisting, in my opinion, some economists are reaching in the wrong conclusion from the election. People felt like the economic narrative was disingenuous. They were told inflation was transitory.

They were told government spending getting cause inflation. They were told inflation wasn't harmful because wages one up. They were told that was the best economy ever.

They were told we needed student unforgiveness, low taxes and control and other french ideas that were broadly unpopular. People knew these narvous were in complete at best and wrong at words. And they voted against more of fit.

And that's a bottom mind. People were just not buying what the democratic party was selling. I think the .

other thing is that you can't expect economist s to be the ones that bring this message to the people either like you, I think you could put blame on the economist or I think you if if IT went well, you could give them credit because people aren't going to get their news or their information from the economy.

lame. The people that lost that trying to deliver message, clearly, clearly did IT resident at all.

So when I after this kind of stuff happens, I don't want to hear when I am trying to pass through like the reasons and like the figure out the actual lessons. As you said, I don't want to hear from either side that that's partisan because the winning side is gna say hi, told you so, and then the losing side is going to say, oh my gosh, everything's on fire. We need to burn IT down and instead over.

I prefer to listen to people who aren't partisan or that, like, I would never know your political opinion. So I thought that Michael stumbles at japan organ from an economic perspective, had the best take a read of anyone. And he, that's the kind of guy where he he just he tells IT like IT is I wouldn't be the bar poster what he says one or in another like this.

He's a stone republican. He's a heart of demo cat. I like you wouldn't know because he just looks at the numbers that that way that I like .

to do the world I I read the same person, I just thought the screams ark junior.

so here's what he said and he he he did the the post mortem for the dams and saying so he said, uh, let's see what I find notable as an investment person about the twenty twenty four election outcome is how the biden hair team were not able to convert the following into more substantial gains of the polls. He said, close to all time high in labor force participation ate proxy for a very strong job market, a surgeon, reassuring activity. U.

S. Manufacturing jobs, after research progress declined under trump. In industrial policy, the overwhelmingly benefit to G, O, P districts. Seventy five percent of the energy bill spending is going to G, O, P. Districts, many of which are located in swing states.

The largest surge in manufacturing related construction spending on record, uh highest to the equity gains in an election years since thousand and thirty six. And then the inflation surge was painful, but it's subsided in wages are ising fast and rents the that is able to raise policy to stem inflation without trigger recession for the first one and sixty years. And he was the only one I saw that this was kind of surprising.

He threw some shade. Janet yEllen, surprisingly, and I never thought about. So he was saying, listen, you had all these successes. You never, you never took a Victory lap for any these. And I think people sometimes from a political party, one of, like, there is no Victory lap ever done .

and covered or inflation.

or inflation.

So we do inflation.

Guess what would even worse in the highest inflation, four decades inflation, then a recession? So the fact that they never took a Victory lap on this stuff, they just one of people have figured out themselves. Guess what? If trump had been president during the same economy is biden, he would have been taking Victory ups every single day. And I think that that was he was a messaging problem that I guess what I might not matter anyway. But I think his point is that like you had some of these Victories, I don't claim them.

You such a point. I wonder if if trump IT the past four years, unless ssa said that he was his first term, would you have been reelected? I think probably .

IT is people hate inflation up. So it's hard to say because IT wasn't like globally, IT wasn't like a conservative versus liberal .

thing IT obviously that I can said the last couple of years trying to shine the light of the fact that the the huge gap between how the economy was objective performing and how people felt that was performing was stark. But like that's not what resonates with people, right? And people like stop telling the economies OK.

When my burrito cost fourteen dollars and there was a chart that that people are sharing on the internet um IT shows the is a morning consult index of consumer sentiment so it's a daily the view of how people feel that they break IT down by political identification, republicans or democrats and immediately after the election IT shut up right? democrats. Feelings, plumage of feelings skyrocketed and like you take this as something other than what IT is, it's it's feelings that's IT feelings feelings le. Everything IT determines policy and the mood and everything and it's not date its feelings yeah .

and so another one that was going around was, uh, people who were misinformed about big topics voted heavily more for trump than for heroes. And they showed talking about .

like measure misinformed. The this is the type of stuff that like really pieces of people who voted for one party body looked so the one .

of the questions was the U. S. Stock market is at on your time high and people who said, no, it's not, vote in more for trump and so the point was like an inflation has declined over last year and his new historic after and those people said, no, so I could ban people misreading these these questions, but I was but the point I think the point is that that the negative story won out because the positive story wasn't being told and IT wasn't being trumpeted. And again, IT probably might IT might not matter.

but IT, but IT might have. Because Morgan, Morgan, housel big thing is like.

best story wins. yes. So yeah, the best story he is. So but semble list was saying every other successful president history has had their treasury secretary who's gone out and just done this. clinton had bob rubin and member obama had two minute dinner member.

that name guy there i.

can never get that one right now guyer OK trump had munu an and was saying like so maybe three and jenny yan didn't talk as much as because he was a former fed chair and didn't want to step on polls to for anything but uh he he was saying like that part of the jab usually for the treasury to like to say like look all the great stuff we've done and they didn't do that so we the best story wins and obviously that other story one so here's here's my i'm looking through this with the financial lanes since we did think everyone hated inflation so much does by by recessionary spending happen now is is IT gone forever or is IT during the next downturn people say screw you give me my two thousand check.

again i don't know but i think we speak about like resulting and stories that we tell who's to say that inflation wouldn't have in fact refer IT if we were in a normal recession where the world wasn't shut down and you sent out stimulus checks what's word of inflationary impact would that have outside of the economy being shot down on the supplied demand shock right because you gave people all this money in the form of demand but there wasn't any supply to give the.

goods that needed this was.

a total one maybe maybe maybe fiscal stimulus m recession is the right call but we're so afraid of what happened last time.

yeah the funt yeah right this is a total one of the funny thing is if you look at the the path of inflation how i got to work is trumps covered spending was literally the first thing was the kindling but guess what i was the right decision at the time you should have done that spending but that was the thing that that got so trust code spending light chains in the warm ukraine and then died in coin spending and it's kind of like you know the nfl player who one guy pushes the other guy either get swings at the guy who swings gets the flag in retaliation i just can't believe that no one never mentioned on the demand side you know trump was going to started the government spending he was the one who in but guess what he was holding necessary that's what they could have said anyway i also think it's crazy that neither political al party took want to credit for this whole election three of our biggest accomplishments as a nation is passed in this decade operation warp speed which was like our moon landing for vaccines energy independence and then no recession from the inflation war camber no one took credit for those the whole election and i know why they didn't i guess they didn't wanna make people mad but uh i don't know i guess this is the way the world works so what matthew kline said um so a lot of people saying well the trump policies are going to lead to higher interest rates right because rates are moving up he says would eventually lead to lower long term rates and his whole point that maybe we don't get this kind of spending in the future and that means that you should have so bonds will be more of a protection going forward want to work about the inflation as much does that mean that lower that long term rates should be lower in the long term i a good dog at least that that was my take so we had been done with that the hindsight stuff again we talk about the stuff the edges and IT still might not have mattered even if you know there had been touched on celebrations and better message IT IT still might not a matter because everyone hate to the in comment this year.

yeah.

so we have to give feel his due i guess this is the shack mean i apology i wasn't looking to the game there was more stories than the steal guy in france who.

is on the market party market whe.

i still stick with my idea that if this was if he literally had thirty million dollars in liquid assets he bet at all on this election i still think that's a terrible decision from a risk manager framework sound like he was more informed about this election then i thought i guess this is another hindsight one where he said he did his own internal polling and instead of just asking who you voting for he has his neighbors who their voting for my even do other pulses not do.

that i don't know yeah i get all created to this person but if if he really is where thirty eight thousand and put thirty many days on one wager i mean that's.

so you can just look at the outcome and say great idea right i put all my money my life saving in the letter tickets in one of the hit so it's.

a good idea sound like i i said like in his offence this not the later y rather he thought he had an age and apparently he.

did so credit him yes but he's line of thinking ah IT abas he worked okay so through the clothes on friday we're recording this monday morning or earlier than usual because busy week this week we're traveling we're doing stuff michelle z games to go to today my kids didn't get veterans day off want to do that your kids did mind didn't.

i'd never know how the at the national school seems like everyone on a different schedule and which i think somebody said this one as less time it's verification travel purposes that if everybody had the same schedule.

ah okay that makes sense i can see that what we do like a mid fall break and we already had IT so i think that was kind of our better stay so through friday the s n people have ended up over twenty seven percent this year we're closing in on thirty percent gain everybody in the pool i look at this thirty percent years eighteen out of the past ninety six years for the s p five hundred to finished up thirty percent or better so that's roughly twenty percent the time from running up there is also been eight times where the s n p s finished the year between twenty five percent and thirty percent so if we did twenty five percent and up now we're talking twenty seven percent.

of the time IT.

happens a lot more than you would think.

a similar tweet from asm pay fifty autumn high this year the seventh most account year wow i was.

wondering this i was going to look up it's so.

crazy how much of the market is up since interest rated five percent or since since cash to five percent.

yes they've only lowered rates seven five basic pots rates are still ove for whatever unbelievable.

if you like hit out and cash in well like early twenty two and three or whatever yes.

a few time the market of vented tiles you are.

which was under which which was see like a reasonable idea at the time.

yes so last week we talked about a study and the difference between the high highest valuation socks and lowest evaluation socks and i i think i was saying well isn't lot of this just the biggest stocks in torsen n slog at a chart saying that the top ten the average p e of the top ten companies in the s p is almost fifty pulled by tesla which is like a hundred twenty or so but broadcom in video in ili you've thought elle's training for sixty two times learnings that a surprise to you as one of the highest so that the average of the top ten is around fifty the average the tap four is forty in the eap itself treated in aver twenty six so again i don't know this this lines up with that study from last week but the highest valuation stacks up performing but there are very high valuations for the top ten stocks.

look at look at this time from chocolate the forward p e for the five hundred so it's getting up there IT is getting.

up there and but doesn't matter.

yes maybe i we've again we've.

been on a spectacular run and we've been asking for the last three months this is good as i guess i've see i got gooder.

this is this is an interesting um framing value stocks and growth john authors via the daily chart book the value fact you had its best day since the worst of the pandemic after the election and he said when growth is plentiful investors look for stocks that are cheap in these conditions its value that in short supply neck growth no interesting never thought about that way.

so that is the idea like a lot of times you get these economic pivot points and then you see the changes in leadership and you wonder if this election is that pivot point.

so i mean i certainly was whether it's sustainable or not or we will say but a lot of people been talking about a credit spreads whether investment greater high yield you to try and here for torts and slack saw somebody tweet this money is at the lowest levels IT seems like nineteen eight eight i think just absolutely tight between treasurer and and these other bonds these high higher response and i saw somebody make a good point that yes bridge right the tightest levels in a long long time which of course is um indicative of risk petite and you know confidence in in these companies ili ties to pay them back and all sort of good stuff but you also have to look at the absolute level fields like IT makes sense that when the treasury the ten years at two and five percent i don't want invest goods bonded three and a percent three present for that matter like i need a bigger spread when when treasury yells are four and a half percent and the economy is healthy IT makes sense that you're going to be okay with a five and a half six percent yelled you know i.

mean this is also the kind of thing where it's like valuations not being a signal in the stock market you look at this and you ago just wait some one day when spreads blow out you can look back at these low these low spreads and go of course that was designed but look at historical there have been long long periods of time where spreads have remained narrow for multi ear periods yes so you can use some kind of timing indicator that spreads are tired so i looked over the past year small caps had a huge run up the first day after the election six percent and over the last year the s p in the rustle two thousand are basically the same level they both gained roughly forty percent thirty and forty percent and small types have had these huge run ups and then they come back and the huge run up and they come back but i looked at the past three years or past three years the s m p s up thirty three percent number over the three year period includes twenty twenty two best year But the Russell l two thousand is basically .

flat and higher interest rates.

Kill them, yes, but this is a kind of thing where you would go OK if you're looking for what has more room to run and what's cheaper and what's under performed, it's everything else, right? And small caps is one of those everything else, the things .

yeah yes, yes, yes, right. So the the election was an inflection point for for risk assets. Again, who knows how long this is going to less, but the good times .

are certainly here is a it's an inflection point, but also things already .

going really well.

Yes, yes, like things, they just took off a little a bit more. yes.

So bali tweed, the amount of cash flowing into etps is ridiculous. About twelve billion dollars day for the past week, and Normal is through the four billion and it's basically all rega S P Y, the q small caps. Exit polling for .

this just like to have for the voting book because I want to know when this money flows and you're seeing these much higher levels going in。 I know like where is this coming from? People, this money, this money market funds, is this bands like where where you taking this money from to put IT into the stock market on exit polling?

A great thought. Ah speaking of etf, I had a conversation with map favor over that advisor. Unlocked that com as advisor. Unlocked com. We are going to be creating, as I think we mentioned, this less way, we're going to be creating a lot more content for advisers and map favor and canberra a have this new really cool idea that's being launched with the the good photo over etf architect.

And it's a way for investors to see the etf, yes, see the etf with existing securities that I sensibly have appreciated a lot and you owe IT because for the most part, who wants pay taxes, right? It's like, oh, iphone, stack X, Y, Z and i'm up nine hundred percent and you know what? I put all my money in IT today or text of my portfolio.

No, but I also not want to pay the taxes. So the ways that you were able to get out of those and into a more diversified basket, like with something called an exchange one, not great. So mab and etf architect built this thing where you swap your existing security for shares in an etf. The tax bill doing go away, but you get much more diverse people deferred.

And we've had from so many people coming to a thing, I ve got huge gains in these stacks. I know I need to diversify, but how do I do without trigger a big taxi? Is the I think there are so many cool things that investors to have access to today that people in the past could only dream of, yes, right?

The fact that there is only ways to solve problems for financial problems for investors these days that they have and obviously having huge gains in your in your portfolio, that's a problem. But IT is if you want, if you know you need to diversify and and lay off some of that risk. And this is such a cool way to do IT and in member saying that he has never gotten more, more interest in something. And in his life, working in the fun industry and IT makes sense, yes, is a amazing financial planning tool.

Yes, it's really, really cool. I wanted talk about this real, quite speaking of of alpha architect Larry switch route of peace. And he was highlighting a study by robbin Green wooden marco salmon called the disappearing index effect.

And this is the summer of their finding just blew my face. One of these things where we talk about how stocks tend to go up in anticipation, being edit in the index and fall when they removed. And I think historically, that was true when I just one of the things in your idea makes sense apparently that that's not juny more so they say.

what is your mental .

bat quote oh um how how the trend has vanished, killed, bites, discovery. They say. The impact from additions group from the average total return of three point four percent of the one thousand and eighty to seven point four percent of the one thousand and nineties, despite the increase indexing access, the average Price impact decrease in the two thousand.

To fight with two percent and that I felt further to blood, one percent of the most recent decade. And they say a similar pattern has a great logan comer with index delicious. The average effect of being removed was negative four point six percent of the eighties, negative sixteen point percent of the nineties, down to negative twelve percent, and from two thousand to two thousand and nine, and a statistically index ingush event from zero to negative zero points percent of two thousand and ten, two thousand twenty. So stock I have removed in the index doesn't kill anymore. This little guy .

is a big man.

We went to stop the potanou guard. And yesterday for like a night night before Christmas type event, you know, I saw that movie in the theory that a positive ove this is not a feel.

The dreams take this I did actually. And IT was .

a little bit scary for me when I saw, but i'm a little bit surprised .

that it's become such like an icon IT I didn't love IT was like.

I think he was too sophisticated for us, but it's whether our kids love IT because.

yeah, love IT that that movie is my kids die hard. They get an argument about is a halloween movie, Christmas movie. I know there's a song and all alloweth so my sons stuck with guns and that the girl said its Christmas.

You know, speaking of halloween, Robin secretly loves scary movies. Any time I turn them on, she's right there with me. We were watching rob. Zombies is halloween in bed on sunday morning. And SHE is like, what is so stupid?

What a beautiful way to start .

a sunday morning. Yeah, the movie is a bit demanding. But SHE, like SHE said, this is so dumb, was he was trying to, like, poke holes in the plot. How did he get back home? Like, listen, this is alloweth this this is this is not a shakespeare yeah you .

have to turn your brain off for the plots for these movies okay, but I I didn't realize this index stuff exists that that is a surprise me. Yeah all right. Um so there this last week has been a whole like risk on love us for anything.

Uh conor son tried to look at the the other side of the economy. And I guess I think that I mentioned like we're the sweet spot of unemployment and inflation in all these things. And the the question is like does IT last he said truck over a stable labor work in the twenty seventeen of the unemployment ate fine throughout the previous year and payroll gross steadily rising at a of two thousand months.

That's true. The time around the java rate has been on a rise, hiring its blow Normal, and payroll growth has slowed since the first quarter. You wonder if the sentiment numbers actually change that if hiring picks up again, that that remains be seen. And he mentioned the fact that mortgage rates are higher and they are moving even higher because of trumps ideas.

And he said, m ideas and terrace immigration restrictions, maybe what voters want, but they represent a risk, the economic year, at a time when consumers are feeling the sting of higher barron cost and important aspects, the economy cooling possible, as all works out, find trump is famously unpredictable when IT comes with promises. We don't know exactly what the future holds for bide programs or for trumps proposed terror text cuts. What is clear now is that trump s and here is an economy that isn't easy to manage, and his campaign promises may only make IT harder.

So this this is where I think a lot of people don't know what to think, because does he actually follow through the what he study's going to do? Or does he rip up that playbook and just start fresh and see what happens? That's where the handicapping is impossible right now.

did you? But did you know that? So the S. M. P. Five hundred just cross six thousand.

Kay.

do you know where I was at the laws in march twenty twenty?

You slaters to see that day what was IT .

twenty something?

Twenty two hundred. Wow, that was a generational buying opportunity, right? Remember.

like maybe for a year, we were asking, like will we ever retest those laws and ever a long time? But I don't know. I hope not. I mean.

at this point. So we were at six. Sixty six was the inter day law.

I think I marched two thousand nine, and so we want six hundred ds to six thousand. And I think the dow went from five something to forty four thousand. unbelievable.

What a run. So everyone is in on the reflation trade, right? Rates going higher, worried about inflation, cbs news tweeted this out, adana d trump redish to return to over office.

U. S. Retailers that depend on foreign suppliers are prepared to pass on the cost of his proposing porter IO to consumers, potentially leading to higher Prices for a range products.

And I had someone in my family this weekend say, hey, what's the deal with this terrible stuff? I I don't know these are, i've never heard of them. If you had to put a percentage on IT, what percent of the election knows what .

this is or what IT does? Two percent.

pretty low, right? yeah. But once people learn what they are, they're going to be pissed.

obvious. So my like, that's what I like. Will he actually do IT?

Well, I think from a financial lands. The good news is this man is an arsonist, and he cares deeply about the score board, and the scoreboard is the stock market. And so I do think that his goal is not to do any harm to the economy of the stock market. And his economic policies perhaps may be misguided. And if they do damage to the stock market or the economy, I think you ll back off.

And I do think that if he says i'm going to a put a thirty percent tarifa and all products coming from mexico, I think the stock market would hold us food to the fires are right .

and I think you would get all off yeah I think says, oh.

never mind yeah but we don't know is like .

an idea ogun with these ideas. I don't think that what does you know? I mean, I think he success what I think he successes what people want to hear.

And if the people via the market tel him bad idea, I would hope that he listens. Although we did, we did the terms in his in his last term and the market didn't like and only still did IT. So I don't know what but picking of like interest rates, again, this is a real estates. Y you think he's you know he's going to pressure. On the fat lower rates.

I said this in our little on our election show last week that if if he's dealing with seven, seven and half cent mortgage rates, I can't imagine that he won't be trying to pressure the fed into buying mortgage bonds. Are some people buying treasury s to lower those long term rates because the fed can control those, right? The fed is lowering short term is now, but long term rates are rising. The long term raise are the ones for consumers that really matter because now you're going to a get lower rates in your cash and you're paying higher borrowing cost. That's not a great that's not a great trade off.

Yeah um i've been so bitcoin is at eighty two thousand. Um it's up to twenty percent of last week, you know just been on a stupid crazy run and you want to give you up. I'm a bit flap guest ted is the wrong word because I was wasn't am a believer in higher pitchin Prices and I have been for a decently long time but I almost can't believe IT like they did IT they won.

Think back to twenty seventeen or twenty fifteen when we were really like laughing about this as a concept, right? And they kept plug away and they kept plug away. And yeah, they set to m crazy shit, but they won.

I mean, this idea of digital currency and a new form of money and potentially a new financial system, which were not there yet, but a wholly should they did IT. They won. I mean, if if you if you are still screaming about bitcoin, I just stop like, just.

yes.

that finds somebody else to do.

I was talking to someone about this last week and he and he was a anti and he he was saying, listen, everything they've said of a clipt of didn't come definition not matter was my point. My point doesn't matter. It's the adoption piece and it's the it's the fact that people think it's worth something and that to all that matters.

You know what what kept me on track with bitcoin and I use this point in the past um so I am a dead gratitude for this one is is is um um holy should um who are biller my gosh from like Mason well you to be a like Mason bill Miller gaven interview and bearance years ago and he said something like big point, supply is increasing at two percent a year.

Do you think demand will increase faster or or slower than that? And that was IT for me, that was IT. IT was an adoption thing that always wants for me IT always, you know uh and and they won.

Like it's now being discussed on a serious level. Of course, the institutions of there, black rock and everybody else is coming through. And now you've got the president is is bullish on bitcoin. And if the central banks legally start buying bitcoin, it's child like .

they did IT. So seven, this mean that was going around in is a guy holding a coffee with a western, a finance bro saying, I don't understand bitcoin, but you're wrong about IT and someone sends that the take was the one on the foot amenable issue is, is that benas a glass staff? Full guy? No one like that will ever get pit coin or why people buy its a glass staff. M T S, A, I don't necessarily this this is a technological I mean, I know that people who who are encrypted have a lot of glass f mt. Views about the economy and the dollar in these things, but this is a technological asset to me that that's a glass of, uh, asset.

It's both. I think I think the the ideological principles of where they going came from was glass half empty. But I need to defend benzon a here because ban owns probably a lot more bitcoin. Well, not probably then owns a lot more big with this email thinks credit to but and I .

bought IT in twenty seventeen because I didn't want to be this guy. I didn't want to be the guy beating my head against all going don't understands I I bought IT because I wanted IT as a headache like some people called smog insurance that's I want IT. I don't want to be smart screaming about IT.

And the final thing to me about crypt a is every boom bus, like when the bus happens, it's like this thing is over with the S. P, F stuff. IT wasn't that long ago.

Like this crypto al is done. It's over. It's and never coming back.

Then every time is a boom. Like right now, it's like this thing is never going down again. There is no end well, but IT.

I feel like truck the tape because I think that I think that not that you and I were owlish over over twenty twenty two, but we did say, why isn't much low in fifth?

Yes, we were saying IT should be at five right now. The fact that is not knowing there is like a huh.

So you and I ve spoken about this a lot, not all. We spoke about IT recently, more recently. When do we sell?

So for me personally, i've always said I didn't write bitcoin from seventy thousand down to fifteen interests I wanna back to even and it's the only and it's the only asset that I could think about owning that as a metric upsides. So for me personally, I think i'd rather sell late than sell early. 不， one hundred thousand， I will be forced to let them up a little bit.

I'm that's my line in the sand where because this is started, gone and again.

and the only time I ever sold is .

to do text us everything. So I, I, I have more money than I would ever thought. And when I hit hundred thousand, i'm going to sell half of my position. I'm going to do, i'm going to do the regret ministry thing on to file my own advice.

I'm standing hard. And that way, that's the grand, rapid age.

yes. But either way, if I go to the extreme, i'm gonna probably feel canadian tes. So this is the way that this takes away the feeling of being an idiot.

So I still often on the table, but i'm also locking sum in. And then guess what, when inevitable crashes the future? Because IT will, it'll crash at some point again.

Yes, then I private more back anyway, just like stepping back, they really did IT and listen IT pains me to say no pains me to say I do want IT um so but .

IT yeah that .

IT where created is do what does esme they want is just IT is why to think about right? Like they had this idea of a digital currency and IT sounded like IT sounded like.

insane will .

get into existence. And so quite to them.

I ve told the story before, but I was at a speech in, mohamed was talking about that. This is like two thousand and nine bit is still, you know, the weight of resources up. And no, I knowed IT and they asking, like, do you think that that we can ever create another asset class? And he he kind of said, well, no, everything's just a privative.

It's already out there. Encrypt or literally is a new asset class. I'm not like through shared him foresaw this, but like no one thought that this was going to be an asset classic back then yeah.

yeah. So Michael seller are still going at IT. This beautiful maniac is buying. He bought twenty seven between october thirty first and nobody that he bought twenty seven thousand bitcoin for two billion dollars and an average Prices of seventy four thousand dollars. So I don't know if this man is a genius or many act or both, but they have twelve billion dollars with a bit on right now that is kind is scary because this going to become to become the richman en in the world.

IT does not. I mean, the stuck, I was going crazy. Someone, the reason i'm going to be OK selling a little bit because the crypto people are getting very cocky again. And they should be what someone someone did not pull what we are saying, my Michael still last week and put in in the video and send around and to cripp up places people tag me on IT and um they always use word trad five like like look at these two trad five analysts talking about sailor and then they I sent you this and they compared Michael sailer to nicola tesler and the right brothers uh which which less again, he is worked out for him but uh, that's why i'm going to be OK because people are getting really cocky.

Again, i'm going they deserve to be copy. They want like the biggest prize of odds I .

do but the right brothers, that's a little.

a little little far so so a flows are going nuts. Uh, nor asa tweet. I shares bitcoin etf has now surpassed I shares gold etf in assets.

IT did this in ten months. IU launched january to that. If I look at this.

sharpen, wait. So what what is GLD have for assets? Are we still away away from that?

Yeah, I think so. Black rock took in four point one billion dollars of trading volume. Trading volume on once si not flows.

but I think of GLD has seventy five billion assets yeah but if you if if you put all the e tf together for bitcoin against all the gold e tf together, it's it's closer er than you think probably right.

yes. So A I guess is this advice is, where is this money coming from? Gun at this .

point? I mean, the people who are just getting in now, and this has to be more hedge fun institutional trading moments plays right?

And I can imagine that advisers are now in math. You don't know, i'm not speaking for every all thirty thousand advices, whatever IT is sure there are some that are putting their clients today, obviously, but like a wave of advisers all the sudden chase, that's not how advisers right?

Ah I don't think so either. I me yes, but this I VC feels like a moment's thing to me.

Ah you want to how? What is this?

Oh, sean sends this, uh, which, by the way, lot of people pointed out that sean is actually irish word. Somehow the listen, we know that that words come from different dialogue, and that's what makes the words that don't look right to pronounce. But i'm just saying, let's just start over every word has to look like that sounds that's all I want. I get IT. There's some history there and but seen shown as seen well.

there's an alternate spelling of course is you know some can that's true.

right? So Julie, change to eat this out. This is a top selling.

The arar home community north of use in the house is currently list for hundred and sixty three thousand dollars. It's too bad. Two half bath, a hundred, a thousand square feet, roughly.

And saying, like these things are starting like gangbusters. And I think we need to make more of these. I don't think people realized that the houses you are grandparents were buying in the one thousand nine hundred and fifties when they came home from the war.

They were this size, they were in two story. They were flattered, but that's how big they were. Were you thousands were feet?

Do you put the boiler in this house, at this a room for a bucket? Did you get a fix yet? Of course.

okay, but I can see the the appeal of this if you want to become a home winner.

Yeah.

IT makes sense. I look at the pictures too. It's pretty nice. Are a bunch of people sent to this after I said, where's where's our credit credit index?

I said that it's been for while Cliff water direct lending index, this thing exists, covers three hundred and fifty billion thousand of assets and fifty thousand one holdings. It's gone back away. Away is two, I guess, middle market corporate loans.

I'm not going to lie. I've been involved in some way with private investments for the last fifteen years, maybe longer than that. And uh, I still like the middle market messene like some of these these phrases.

Well, I think middle is just like, it's like my caps. It's a, it's like a size thing.

yes, but I made to feel like they made those terms up to like messene um yeah sorry, a messene that's a balcony.

right? Yeah, just speak english. Babbit.

yeah right. I listened to a call this week for great porter guys zero and ziller was up like twenty percent the day they are reported. And how do I know this? Because I still on the stock, one of the very few individual socks alone even had a great year.

So does a gap up at eighteen. So more than one that gets .

not going to filled .

or we're filling the gap. We're filling the gap.

How do does the twenty percent gap up get fell down? That's .

different perhaps. okay. I later that .

I the interesting thing to me was how watch that their whole presentation was about the rental market. And I think they just see the ring on the wall that housing activity is probably just going to be low for a while like it's hard to see housing activity all the site and just come a roaring back.

Oh, is that the seven percent mortgage? Like what give that away .

that might be yet. So they talk about the rental market and they talk about how there is twenty six million units and that are single units, twenty two million that are multifamily, and they look at kind of their their time of this. Um but I thought the interesting thing was the amount of turnover that occurs in these what was IT oh average turn over is a thirty five percent of I I listen.

So it's like they call this long tail multi fail the units. So less than twenty five units, more than twenty five units and it's thirty percent for the long tail 4 and for multifamily， are those numbers higher than you have thought for rental turn? That's very high to me.

I don't think so. How long did the people stay in the rental for?

I don't know. Yeah, I guess. So I mean, guess that's the whole points is is more flexible, forty percent turn over every year? IT seems like a lot. I guess that happens. Um I dunk .

IT is none too. Please with dash, welcome to the club new jordas h nightmare for everyone to be aware of. They allow restaurants to recharge your credit card after an orders place that they need to adjust the Price. So I just added two on trees that were one thousand nine hundred nine of the men, two twenty minutes s later, after placed in the world, I saw an additional charge pop up. They just the Price of one thousand nine hundred and nine twenty eight dollars per item.

This just an new york thing. No, he new york dash home.

There's nothing they can do. Yeah, this is no sense.

He's matter as private.

real taxi.

right? Scott gallery had this. He talked about how this was the pack. This was another, everyone, is that okay? Podcasting was the thing that really sung the election.

And he looks at the medium age of audiences by cable news in prime time, TV news and newspapers and talk radio magazines. And all of those are fifty plus. Cable news is seventy.

Is the median age prime time. T V is sixty five as media age. Podcasting is thirty four for the media age.

And I think that from our experience of talking to our audience, there's obviously a wide range, but that, that seems to make sense to me. But what like what happens to cable news? And when a generation dies off, do we graduate .

IT go like this? And then like a vegetable peak, a that just right, do just go all the way down.

I mean, like when that generation dies off, this cable loose, die off with IT like, or do we just graduate into IT? Do we become our parents?

Well, we do become a parents. That is a rule of the show. So .

that's what i'm wondering. But do you see yourself?

This is different. We're never watching cable mode.

This is different. I tend to agree.

by the way, one thing that we can all rejoice on is a fact that that there is no more election commercials.

Thank god I I appreciate BBA made good .

point is like, why is do we drink this election hgh for a year?

IT did seem way too long. I think I should be like two months. That's IT. Yeah.

nobody, nobody changes her mind. I can say, is who to say.

let's keep going. I saw the wheel turning .

to say anything I want to say.

let's alright. why? K, I got a few good tips on this.

Take the board tip IT on side and some underneath come out. Take something wrong and thing like a fun do for you. Definite, have a fun. Do fork in all your jars, right?

I I don't know what, I don't, I don't even is fun. Dee.

it's like the cheese, melted cheese, and you dips up in IT. You never been to a melting pot restaurant before.

A what's what's the meat that you cook in a liquid? I thought that was funded.

Now funding is cheese.

What's the meat that you cook? I said I am not very cultural or wordly I don't know about these things.

Okay, so solid Price pressure. So but that sounds like basically there's no good way to do this OK right? Someone also says, if your iphone isn't hand, you need to hang up after called double click either or your posit, don't hang up. yeah. What if my hands are full?

That's the problem. You know, I felt like a hypocrites, and I I think I told them myself, like, how would I know that the other person doesn't hang up?

I guess, because I don't hang up exactly. I told this happened with that was like a six minute cAllen. We just had to stand off.

No one to hang up. I found the head to hanging up. We talk last week and in our, neither was hang up. And I just kept going. Really ah so um guilty .

you know my mom is to always say a phrase, you can notice an of a an ended somebody else been not an elephant on yourself. Guilty as charged. I guess I don't think of either.

I kept this one relatively quick. I have to go to code and all day across tournament like we're off for veterans today. So thank you to the veterans who served this country and who served this country. I think I don't know how many percent of people like have a family member and ancestor that was a veteran.

We were talking about this for most of us was yeah and have handful veterans .

and staff wealth share .

veterans recommendations.

Are you? I caught up on the penguins in.

no, i'm so little behind. I, what have I been doing lately? I don't know. I, I, I will watch IT though I am going to bend.

Er I I I thought that and I was spectacular o .

but IT was a one season show .

not going back.

And I come back of minus, right?

Really good, right.

So my wife and I watched my old prime this weekend. We .

started IT was a good .

ninety minute movie, which is great to me. This is the kind that you, anna, watching your couch, not in theater. It's a coming of the age you know the premise obviously.

Yeah ah the older version of the middle age version of herself comes to a thousand year old to talk to and give her advice. And I love this set up. I thought I was I don't think it's a Michael movie.

I could be wrong, but I really enjoyed IT. And there was the word thing is, is that i'm now seeing this movie through the middle age version or the parent as opposed the Younger person. There was a moment where it's a daughter whose eighteen going with a college and she's having a conversation with her mother. The mom is talking about like I feel like I was just rocking you to sleep as a baby and and i'm thinking of my kids going with to school and I had a thing like I got choked up at this point where they're talking about the daughter living for school and I thought the ending was very well done IT was my wife kind of guess? And I didn't guess IT, but I was really good coming of wage movie.

And you know, I think IT is a Michael movie. How about that? Okay, you know, somebody, somebody because you, I know coming of age movies, more your thing in mind, somebody said to me recently care hood was I love everyone of beds recondition. It's like I don't think you're going to like this.

true not give me a try i i really like but again i'm i'm viewing IT now instead of the young person i'm viewing IT through the lens of the older person of the old age person that's a will change for me.

i know i i was just reminder this i was out to get a less time with friends we want to the thing in in the bronx so we want to author avenue for a talian food and they have a eight year old nine year old who is in a stock picking contest and he said i talk to michael he he loves to talk to kids about stocks and my friend was joking and now that he was making a show to the song because how would the sun now right but he was no yeah in his mind he was like laughing what he said that and his eight year old said he doesn't give me those vibes.

that's really only for stocking.

contest.

right smart in in early one more we watched my ducky and mike ducks two this weekend for our family nineties revival and the thing i told you i texted you i forgot a million us as is a terrible actor.

here on this.

just really bad.

what's more impressive what's more impressive the bitcoin ders willing a currency and asic less into existence or the mighty dogs getting in an h l team.

i was time my kids this i like you realized that this movie sponge an h hell team.

what's more probable.

IT is prety crazy i don't know i think adam banks heading his risk fine just in time for the last game was more probable for d to so my my kids were cheering.

at the end of both of so good good then we've got if i glad you are coming up you not seen that a theory come on are you are.

oh yes but here's the thing would you allow your son to watch glad you are one because we we went to see a movie yesterday with our family and saw two poster and my son goes i want to watch number one so bad and i i said in my wife said absolutely not i've had much.

although i'm such a happy cat like i you know i saw a nine.

more and employ when i say yeah but.

no glad that or is definitely not appropriate for our kids.

of course is.

not but i don't care okay.

oh thanks everyone signed up for a chicago life i think we basically.

sold out of vene yeah yes so the venue is capacity lot of people were just point they couldn't come but we've good news we've got how many employ have in chicago ten more a lot.

a big present.

so we're getting phenomenal office space can't wait together it's being built out as we speak and it's got it's got a venue attached to IT that is going to a be great for podcasting.

hold the most of.

hosting so yes we will certainly be doing that in the future alright thank you everyone for listening thank you the veterans thank you to dunk in and squad as always animal spirits of the compound news die com will see you next time