cover of episode Who is in the title race?

Who is in the title race?

2024/12/2
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The Game Football Podcast

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Gregor
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Hamza Khalique-Loonat
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Tom Allnutt
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Tom Clarke
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Tom Clarke: 本期节目讨论了英超联赛冠军的争夺,嘉宾们就利物浦、曼城、阿森纳和切尔西等球队的实力和夺冠前景进行了深入分析。节目中,嘉宾们就曼城近期表现低迷的原因进行了探讨,分析了球队中场球员缺乏活力和平衡等问题,并认为曼城本赛季不太可能重回争冠行列。同时,嘉宾们也对利物浦、阿森纳和切尔西等球队的实力和夺冠前景进行了分析,认为利物浦目前实力强劲,阿森纳状态回升,切尔西也表现出色。 Tom Allnutt: 曼城近期表现不佳,球队缺乏终结能力,球员信心不足,中场球员缺乏活力和平衡。球队青训体系的运作方式也存在问题,瓜迪奥拉很少信任年轻球员。利物浦战胜曼城,增强了球队夺冠的信心,球队融合了克洛普时代球队的各种特点。 Gregor Robertson: 曼城与利物浦相比,信心和信念方面存在巨大差距。利物浦的一个长传球完全瓦解了曼城的逼抢。瓜迪奥拉赛后的言行举止表明他失去了对局势的掌控。哈兰德在比赛中的表现受到其队友的影响。曼城近期连败的主要原因是中场球员表现不佳。顶级球队无法容忍球员因年龄增长而导致竞技状态下滑。 Hamza Khalique-Loonat: 人们需要权衡曼城过往表现和近期表现来评估其实力。人们对曼城未来表现的预期取决于他们对历史表现和近期表现的权重分配。曼城可能通过战术调整来扭转局面,就像利物浦之前所做的那样。曼城在冬窗转会期可能引进新球员。预测足球比赛结果是一项复杂且不确定的任务。利物浦本赛季的出色表现可能无法持续到赛季结束。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Manchester City considered to be in a fight for the top four rather than the title race?

Manchester City has lost four consecutive league matches for the first time under Pep Guardiola, and their recent performances have been poor. They are 12 points behind Liverpool, and their midfield lacks the physicality and balance needed to compete at the highest level. Additionally, injuries and aging players have further weakened the team.

What makes Liverpool a strong contender for the Premier League title this season?

Liverpool is currently nine points clear at the top of the Premier League table and has shown a blend of ferocious pressing and controlled play. Their recent 2-0 win against Manchester City demonstrated their confidence and belief, which are crucial for a title challenge. The team has also seamlessly integrated different aspects of their play under manager Arne Slot.

Why is Arsenal still considered a title contender despite being nine points behind Liverpool?

Arsenal has been in excellent form recently, scoring 10 goals in their last two games. With key players like Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka back in the squad, their attack is flowing again, and their defense remains solid. Additionally, their favorable fixture list and Liverpool's potential to plateau give Arsenal a realistic chance to close the gap.

What are the key issues facing Manchester City this season?

Manchester City is struggling with a lack of physicality and balance in midfield, aging players, and injuries. The team has also sold key academy players, leaving them with fewer options to rely on. Pep Guardiola's recent uncharacteristic behavior, such as his post-match comments, suggests he is losing control of the narrative, which is unusual for him.

Why is Bournemouth considered one of the best pressing teams in the Premier League?

Bournemouth is relentless in their pressing and has a clear purpose when they win the ball back, quickly transitioning into attack. Their ability to hound the opposition and execute incisive football after winning possession is a testament to excellent coaching. They are statistically among the top teams for pressing metrics, making them one of the best in the league.

What challenges does Unai Emery face at Aston Villa this season?

Unai Emery is dealing with a squad that has been weakened by the sale of key players like Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby. The team is also struggling defensively, conceding more goals than last season. Additionally, the added exertion of Champions League football is taking its toll, making it difficult for Villa to maintain their form.

Shownotes Transcript

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Hello and welcome to the Game Football Podcast from the Times. Now then, is it really all over? Liverpool moon nine points clear at the top of the Premier League table and 11 points clear of Manchester City after a 2-0 win at Anfield. Has Arna Slot got the title wrapped up already? And are City now in a fight for the top four? On today's show, we'll discuss all of that.

So team, let's get it out of the way, see if we've got a show or not, see if we've got a season or not.

In a word, is the title race over, Tom? No. Gregor? No. Hamza? No. Why do you always do this? Why is it always one word? Because if you'd all said yes, then we could have just packed up and gone home. And we might have been much quicker. Yeah, yeah, 100%. Let's go. We've all got busy days, you know. Gregor might have a second baby on the way any minute. We need to wrap this up nice and quick. But no, the title race is not over, which means we've got a lot more fun and excitement to be had. So to Anfield then, and another...

assured composed impressive confident Liverpool win Greg I'm having flashbacks to Thursday this is basically exactly the same intro as after Liverpool had beaten the mighty Real Madrid but what did we make of this epic

Epic, epic battle. These two teams have had some many great clashes over the years. This didn't necessarily feel like one of those to me, Gregor. It felt like a, I'm hesitant to say routine Liverpool win, but it did have a little bit of that feel to it. Yeah, because it just felt like an enormous gulf between these two teams suddenly, very suddenly. Even when City got through the first 20 minutes, the tsunami that came at them, that they looked like they were going to be completely overwhelmed by,

and they start to pass the ball and move it and have some composure, some signs of what City can be again, there was no threat. They didn't really threaten Liverpool's goal at all, didn't really get many touches in the box, didn't do anything.

Didn't do much to threaten Liverpool's goal. Just on that, because I've got my usual list of lots and lots of facts and figures from Opta. Manchester City's first shot on attempt at Anfield came in the 39th minute, their longest wait for their first shot of a Premier League match since April 2010.

Which speaks exactly to your point there about, you know, this is Manchester City, come on, they're always going to look like they might score. And it just had that feeling that they probably wouldn't. Yeah, even when, as I say, even when there was a bit of rhythm in their play, they didn't have any end product. And then there were other moments where, like I remember, they took one short free kick.

in the first half and then like kind of dallied on the ball and then like played it back ended up going just about back to the goalkeeper like with an opportunity to put the ball in the box or to do something to work something they also looked kind of quite timid at certain periods particularly in the first half

That's understandable The confidence has been knocked I said it again I mean maybe we saw The clip from The new City documentary With Guardiola and a change And they showed it I think just at half time Or just before the game Pep's going Everything's in here It's in here You smile You're positive They won't be able to handle you This was from last season

That underlined That everything is in here It's still in here now It's in here when It's working well for them When everything's positive And when they're Confident and they believe They can go out And win every game And it's in here now When they're feeling like They don't know where Their next win's coming from So the psychology was Writ large all over this game That Liverpool are in You know A place of enormous confidence And belief Eh

all those things and City are the opposite but that first 20 minutes was stark there were just the moments before the first goal where City were trying to press and there was like 5 or 6 players looking like they were trying to press and there was just one diagonal ball

Just completely took them out of the game. That just sort of summed up where City were, I thought. Everything's in the mind then, Tom, Gregor's point there. Do you agree that this result was more telling, arguably? It's a strange thing to say because Liverpool, as I said at the top, have got nine points clear, 12 clear of City. Did we take a little bit more from this game about City than we did about Liverpool?

I guess so, but I also think it's another big signpost for this Liverpool team. I mean, you know, we know that City aren't where they should be, but I still think this is a massive result for Liverpool, you know, and not just in terms of the table, but in terms of their belief. You know, I think if we're sort of wondering about the question marks about Liverpool's title challenge at this point, you're sort of thinking about, do they have the sort of belief in this group to sort of go all the way? And I think these kind of results deliver that, you know, and when you beat City and not just beat them 2-0, but...

you know, it was a mauling really, wasn't it? I mean, this could have been a sort of a 3-4-0 kind of game, I thought, you know, Greg was right, in that first 20-30 minutes, Liverpool could have been 2-3 ahead and it was a real nice kind of conglomeration almost of the sort of Klopp era because in that first half an hour it was everything we know about that Liverpool team, playing at home at Anfield, great atmosphere, huge urgency, ferocious press, you know, you just can't get out kind of thing and then actually I thought for the rest of the game it was a little bit more controlled and a little bit more measured and sort of holding on to what we have and...

And I think that is the kind of success of this slot team is that they've melded those two aspects of those teams together so seamlessly. Yeah.

I think it's a huge result for them. I don't think the title race is over. I still think there's a long way to go. I still think Arsenal got a great chance. But I think in terms of Liverpool's psychology, I think it was a really big result for them. I'm going to come back to some of the points you made about the rest of the season for these teams. Also, 10 out of 10 for your use of conglomeration there. Fantastic word of the year so far, maybe. Hamza, some of the points, maybe the same question then to you as to Tom.

Is this more telling for Liverpool? Do you agree with Tom there that it's a huge signpost for them? Or, as Gregor was saying, were you watching this game going, Christ City are really off it this season? Which side of the fence were you on? I was on the fence, a bit of both. I guess the interesting thing is for Liverpool in the aggregate, as in you've had this week with Real Madrid and Manchester City, and having that in conjunction with the previous eight matches, you go, OK, yeah, that has informed Liverpool.

our value of Liverpool as a title challenger. Now you think, okay, yeah, they are the favourites. They look very strong. And with Manchester City, you have a similar sort of process where you're trying to work out...

How much value do you assign to past performances by City and the recent performances? And that's always the battle that you have, right? Whenever you're trying to work out how good a team is, you go, okay, this is this quite significant historical body of work which shows that they always come back strong. They're very good. They keep winning, blah, blah, blah. And then you see what's happening in front of you and go, that's not right.

But how does that tally up with that historical understanding? And where you sit on that depends on your expectation for City. If you really, really price in the historical stuff and you go, they've still got Haaland, they've still got De Bruyne, they'll recover a number of players from injury and Pep will solve the tactical issues that they have, you go, they might still be able to claw this back. If you don't and you pay more attention to the recent stuff...

then you'll say, well, they're actually in a battle for top four. I'm still...

undecided on where to fall with that. It's just a tension that I think everyone has, really. But I think where you fall on that depends on how much weight you assign to it. Is that because this is this City team? Because it's Pep Guardiola and this City team? Because I think there are other teams... If we flip this on its head, if it was Manchester City in Liverpool's position and Liverpool were there, we'd be like, difficult season for slot, they're out of the title race. Is it purely because it is this Manchester City team and the Pep Guardiola that we're saying they're 12 points behind Liverpool?

the leaders and that they're still in it? Yeah, a bit of both. I think in the 2020, no actually, a few seasons ago Liverpool had a similar issue, right? They were getting caught on the break a lot. It looked like their midfield's legs had gone and they really did struggle until around March and they made a specific tactical tweak. They moved Alexander-Arnold inside alongside Fabinho in that instance to protect against a counter-attack.

And when they did that, I think they won like seven of the last eight matches and they drew one. And they corrected course and that actually are the foundations for a very good season the following year. Is it out of, is it improbable that City do something similar? I don't think so. That Pep finds a solution tactically to move someone around and fix that. Yeah, they still have problems in terms of

Covering space, the midfield legs, etc. But I don't think this is an insurmountable problem. Plus, January's coming up and they might sign someone. So you don't know. And, crucially, three games a week, very quickly it's possible that a nine-point lead can be whittled down into a three-point lead.

But at the same time Pep's gone full Jose Well this is my point I've got it in my notes here Pep having a Reino moment I wanted to talk about that as well We'll come back to that in a second But to Hamza's point Do you agree with him that it's because it's this City team Or do you think we're in a season of transition mode Hamza as ever is making me check my kind of My you know It's not judgements I don't know I feel like The question is almost now Are they going to recover?

So you think it could be a battle for the top four type thing, which Martin Samuel's written on the website this morning, City are in a battle for the top four, shouldn't have sold Alvarez, shouldn't have sold Palmer, shouldn't have sold De Lappe, etc. Listen, I actually was watching this game and thinking almost the exact same point that Martin made in his column this morning about, crikey, if you think of it, this is a moment in time where they look like there's players who are ageing, there's players who can't get around the pitch in the same way.

They've suffered injuries. What do you need? You need to people call upon, if not the best, one of the best academies in the country. And they've kind of sold all the best players or shipped them off over a period of years. And that feels like a flaw. It's easy to say it now because Pep never really trusted many of them or he would do it fleetingly. Rico Lewis is a real outlier in that regard. He'd dip them in for a cup game or whatever.

And Foden I guess Yeah He's getting generational talent But like It's never been part of his plan It's always about Having a solid squad of You know 18, 20 players Most of whom were pretty experienced Expensively assembled And relying upon them So there's never been room really For the younger guys to get in

And at this moment in time, although we've never been here before, and it's easy to try and find these flaws now, this is where they really could have done with them. Where they could have been loaning players out as opposed to selling them. So I agreed with Martin's points there. But as I say, I just look at the team and just think it's so far diminished from the levels we had come to expect from City. Rico Lewis is now someone who they're trying to play in mid-centre midfield. He's like...

As I say, he's someone who's been coming through and he's been great to dip into the team, step in from right back to midfield, but to be the guy you're relying on to be his midfielder, no. Gundogan looks like he can't get around the pitch in the same way. Silva is not someone who... If he's playing in the middle, he needs someone who can get around the pitch around him. There's just no balance to the team. And I don't see...

when that's going to change Kovacic has come back but he's not really going to get around the pitch much either so he's tried to mask this by having Akanji stepping in by having two players in Rico Lewis and Nunes who are not really wingers but have got more energy who can cover back in and keep things tight when they're out of possession that's almost like the equivalent of let's go back to basics and play 4-4-2 that's Kev's equivalent of that because instead of playing the attacking wingers that type of wingers he wants to

He's playing a bit more conservatively. Yeah, Tom, first time Guardiola has lost four consecutive league matches in his managerial career. Talking about some of the guy's points there, but also, as Gregor touched on, the post-match reaction from Guardiola. Initially, when I saw it with the six to the crowd, I thought, OK, that's a bit of fun between crowd and manager. But then to go full Mourinho, full Rafa Benitez in the press conference, I was like, this is...

This is more worrying for City and for Guardiola than the frantic touchline stuff. Even for the scratches on his head and all that kind of stuff, this is the most un-Guardiola thing ever to start riffing off, oh, I've won this many titles, I'm shocked at Anfield. Are you? Really? Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, I think it's a manager kind of losing control. You know, I think if we think about Guardiola, his whole career has been about control in every single way, you know, the way his team plays, but also the whole, every aspect of the club. And if you are a manager, a coach who is at the peak of your powers, your team is right where you want them to be, then these criticisms don't hurt. You know, Guardiola has heard these kind of things before. You know, I mean, okay, it might not be you're getting sacked in the morning, but he's heard people shouting from the crowd at him before and it's just been water off a duck's back.

But this time, you know, he absorbs it. It hurts him because he realises that for the first time, OK, it's maybe too much to say there's some truth in it. But he realises that he's losing control of the narrative right now, you know. And that was the same with Mourinho. The reason Mourinho was all, you know, three Premier League respect, respect, was because it was hurting him, those questions. It was damaging his pride, you know. And I think that's where Guardiola is right now as well. You know, he knows now that this is not a quick fix, you know. And I think...

That's where I think I disagree with Hamza because I think in the last kind of two or three weeks, I think we're past that now. We're past this thing where this is a blip, you know, three or four bad games. It's an injury here or there. Players are coming back. Diaz is back, you know. Okay, they haven't got Rodri, but this is almost the team that City have now. You know, and we can talk about January reinforcements. Okay, that might tweak the dial. But where are Liverpool going to be by January? You know, and actually if you look at...

We have come to kind of know what City are, we know what Guardiola are, and it's hard, I think, for us to sort of get our head around the idea that City are suddenly a beatable team. But every team in the Premier League right now wants to play City next week. And that is something ridiculous to say, that you think Forrest are delighted to be playing City next. Palace are playing them two weeks, they're saying, let's play them tomorrow. Everyone wants to play them right now, because they see a team that is dead on its knees, they look at the starting line-up and you think, well...

Gundogan and Bernardo in central midfield we can get at them Nunes and Rico Lewis playing out of position on the wings you don't think there's the like wounded pride thing of like someone you know Haaland and all these players you don't think that they'll be like god they're gonna turn at some point it's like every fantasy football manager is thinking at some point City are gonna turn here surely I can't sell Haaland they're gonna all stay you think even I sold Haaland two weeks ago Tom alright sure

Let's not blow the tone and get on to fantasy football. Just because you're bottom of the league. Just leave it at that. But seriously, you don't think there'll be that in the back of managers' heads. Do I think they're going to lose every week until the end of the season? No. Of course, City are going to stabilise. If we go back to the...

Chelsea Mourinho season in inverted commas you know they had a disastrous September until December from January until March April they stabilised you know and they at least found some kind of rhythm City will find some rhythm of course they will you know they've got a great they've still got great players they've got a good squad are they going to finish you know mid-table in my opinion no

Are they going to suddenly flick a switch and be right back in the title race in the next couple of weeks? Absolutely not. So do you think it's their third, fourth season of transition if you had to choose now? Yeah, I think that's where they're going to be at. And I think that's what Pep expects now. Maybe he'll come up with some brilliant tactical thing. Maybe they'll sign someone in January who completely...

the whole narrative. Maybe Arsenal and Liverpool implode. Fine, there are circumstances, but I think Pep looks at the situation right now and that's what he's expecting. I don't think we can be so deterministic because...

That's exactly what we're trying to be, Hamza. Come on, it's the 2nd of December and I want you to tell me who's going to win the title in May. Come on, you know the game. Again, because when we had this discussion at the start of the season, we had very different outcomes because we're informed by what happened previously and now we have some information, which is 13 or 14 games worth, and we're using that information to inform what will happen. This is the job, Hamza. Yeah. And it's a silly process, right? We should fundamentally accept that and say we can't make predictions at this point because there's a lot of stuff that's unknown. Yeah.

and accepting that there are noble unknowns and unknowables means that you go, okay, you're going to have to couch your bets here. So for example, right, so you've got, I've mentioned three games a week. It's an extraordinary demand on the players, and Liverpool have had this amazing start. Do we expect this start will continue? Probably not, right? Just law of averages, right? If it did, you're looking at an Antonio Conte-style season where they wrap it up by February, and that's it, done and dusted. That might happen. It might not happen, and here's one reason it might not happen.

On January 1st, I'm just going to read out a list of players that are going to hit their career averages for Liverpool and then go beyond their career max. For minutes. For minutes, yeah. Kwanzaa hits his career average. February 15th, Kanata hits his career average. February 26th, McAllister hits his career average. On March 1st, Gravenberg goes to his...

career average Jones on March 4th Canate on March 8th then hits his career max he's never ever gone past that amount of minutes right Alexander-Arnold 12th of March career average Diaz 15th of March career average Alexander-Arnold April 8th running time career max he's never gone past it so a load of players with loads more to come is what you're saying and it could be done it could be done by March oh yeah

Yeah, sure, whatever, right? Yeah, it's going to be done by March. Your other point is also... I haven't even got to McAllister, Soberslei, Gravenberg, career max. Van Dijk career max. This guy rarely ever gets injured, plays every minute, and you're looking at a career max season as well. It's entirely possible that...

The point you made about defenders earlier to me as well is true. We've gone into a period now, a very congested fixture period, with five fit defenders. Five fit defenders. For a month. A busy month. Hamza's right, but shut up, Hamza. I'm not coming back. No, he's right, of course he is. That's why I hate predictions. But my instinct now tells me that this is...

There's no coming back from this season for City. But it's possible for Liverpool to tail off and City still not to be in the game, right? Again, that is a possibility. I think everyone expects Liverpool not to be going at this rate until game 38. But it is still very possible that City will also not undergo a huge transformation and be back in the race. I even just didn't like how Sanguini looked at the final whistle. I don't want to go all Roy Keane here, but like... What, the clapping at the away end? Haaland was joking with Salah just after the second goal.

You are going Roy Keane but I like it go for it He was joking with players on the pitch afterwards Liverpool players and embracing and smiling and laughing and joking they all went over as I say afterwards and you see Pep doing this and like they don't really know how to deal with this and for me that's not the way to deal with it you've got to look like

this is really pissing us off this is making us deeply uncomfortable not going we've been the best we've been the best this is always going to happen that's the kind of thing that City are giving off just now we've been the best for so long this time is always going to come that's not the way to deal with this In Harlan there's a genuine conundrum because for a few seasons now we've said that

His work at possession in terms of pressing and also in possession in terms of joining up with the team is not as great as when they had a false nine and you had essentially... You definitely had 10 outfielders and all of them would do their jobs in terms of pressing, covering space, dropping in, all that sort of stuff. Now you are starting to see some of the costs of that. I mean, you always did see it before, but now it becomes a bit more apparent when you see the match like yesterday where...

where they had a fair amount of the ball and Haaland just wasn't in the game because he was man-marked really, really well by Van Dijk and Joe Gomez, who was also excellent and I think deserves a mention. So maybe that won't happen again because Van Dijk's ability to man-mark is really good and not many of the defenders can match that. But I think it's something worth exploring at least or thinking about how

How sustainable is it for Haaland to put in a performance like that where he's not doing much and he's not getting the shots or the goals? It's fine if you're not doing that and you get the decisive moments. But if you aren't doing that, then you're looking like a net negative for the team. It's the midfielder, Hamza. We can talk about Haaland and we have, you know, about his role and his...

his position in this team but right now the thing that is making City lose six games out of seven is in my opinion not Erling Haaland the thing that they're getting overrun is in central midfield you know they're playing Bernardo who's a lovely technical midfielder they're playing Goodwin whose best days are behind them in two positions that they are clearly not suited in and any team who has a physical athletic midfield which Liverpool do

I just kind of run rings around that We've spoken about this for the last couple of weeks Tom and I said finally I'd read so I wrote the piece about mainly about Kyle Walker at the weekend but I referenced a few other players and the thing that when I was writing that I came to the realisation of I pulled out a quote that Sir Alex Ferguson wrote about Rio Ferdinand in 2011 when his legs were basically going saying we've all been here we've all been at this point in our careers when you realise your body can't quite do what it used to you've got to adapt your game

I don't think you can do that anymore. Not in the very best teams. I don't think any team can afford or indulge a player enough to say we need to cover him a bit because he doesn't have the legs. Athleticism is so important, particularly midfield, but it's so important for the elite teams because you don't...

Even we say about Kyle Walker, yeah, he's going to gradually move into centre-half. But centre-halves have to be ridiculous athletes now in an elite level team. You have to be able to cover wide open space. It's not like, OK, I'll go centre-half and I'll pull in the full-backs beside me, I'll sit a midfielder on my toes. That doesn't happen anymore. So you can't... There's no such thing as tailoring your game if you're talking about playing for an elite game like this. There is, but it's all to certain degrees. And...

I don't think there's a quick fix for this City team as they are. And that's something that Liverpool were thinking about with the Mo Salah situation. Because you look at someone like Walken, see how quickly that pace has dropped off. You look at someone like Ronaldo, who has taken care of his body to...

The nth degree, meticulous. And when he returned to Manchester United, he just wasn't that good. He scored goals, but to the detriment of the team. And when Liverpool look at Mohamed Salah, they're going, he's scoring at an amazing rate. I think more than one goal and assist per 90 this season. But what will his physical output be next season? What will it be the season after that? What will it be the season after that if you're looking at a three-year deal? And you expect it to fall. And you go, can we...

Given the opportunity cost, as in how much you're spending on a potential contract, if it's, let's say, for the sake of easy maths, £500,000 a week, so half a million a week times up by 50 for the year, 25 mil a year, add the two weeks, right, 26 mil, three-year contract, you're looking at just under £80 million. What's the opportunity cost of that? How many goals are you going to get next season? How many goals the season after? How many minutes are you going to get and goals the season after that? And...

The calculation is if you put all that money in him...

What's the cost of not putting that into the team? Could you not get those goals or minutes or physical output from investing £80 million in one £20 million player, one £40 million player, another £20 million player, or improving certain areas? Those are the calculations that will be going on. And I think Greg has touched on a really important point there and that will inform that debate. What if you do it with two players in your team, two big players, him and Van Dijk? What if that suddenly in a year or 18 months' time you're thinking...

No Trent's not ageing the same way. There's still a big cost is what I mean. They're not quite as dynamic and athletic as they used to be. We need to cover him. Can't do it. I thought we were going to make it through without mentioning Mo Salah so I had some stats ready. Mo Salah scored and assisted in a Premier League game for the 36th time the joint most by any player in the competition's history equal with Wayne Rooney. Salah's assist for the opener was his 75th for Liverpool in

the Premier League which saw him overtake Thierry Henry on 74 on the list of most assists for a single club in the competition we might be selling Erling Harden in our fantasy football team but we're keeping Mo Salah for the rest of the season that's for sure we're going to move on

We're going to talk about Manchester United now. A big win for them at home against Everton. 4-0 from the outside. It would be very easy to say, start the car, Ruben's at the wheel, here we go. Everything's all fine. Marcus Rashford scoring and Joshua Zirksey's in the goals at last. He's done it all. However, speaking to Paul Hurst this morning, who said he'd watch the game back after going to the City-Liverpool game, he kind of agreed with me, which was this...

Is this a little bit of the new manager enthusiasm creeping in? Everton were very much in this game until that first goal. Gregor, what do you make of this? You know, Manchester United fans won't... I'm obviously doing my little flipping intro. They won't be getting carried away with this, will they?

I don't know I mean maybe There were some great positives Diallo was Diallo was excellent Was brilliant And Rashford scoring As I say Is a great thing Xerxe So you can be a man Who can link play If there's a dynamic runners Beyond them But undoubtedly Yeah you look at the Kind of flow of the game And Everton Had chances They were very much in the game And then they gifted Several goals Several of those goals Were absolute gifts And Look in fairness Everton

Like the one where Pickford Kind of plays a pass That didn't look like The best idea in the world And then it was laid back The other was on them Like there's a new

If it's not a new directive, it's like a directive that looks like it might have signs of working better. Well, you were talking about physicality and intensity in that previous segment, and that's something that United have lacked and certainly lacked under Eric Ten Haag. Watching this, I was like, well, they look quicker all of a sudden. And I know that doesn't just come, that probably comes from lots of factors, maybe the new manager enthusiasm, but they looked fitter and quicker than they have at previous times in the season. Yeah, there were moments where that looked like, you know, a clear directive that was working and...

having Kobe Maynard in midfield adds more legs I don't think Casemiro and Derrickson as the two in midfield has got much life I think fans will be delighted that they've got off to this start at home but I don't think they'll be getting overexcited because anyone who watched that game would clearly say that Everton were

it wasn't a 4-0 game basically Arsenal away on Wednesday Tom I just wanted to touch on Ruben Amorim's fairly consistent rotation in his three games so far it's like everyone's getting a bit of an audition to play which is a good thing you wouldn't be surprised by that but it feels a little bit to my point that I was alluding to earlier about

He's got a bit of a kind of blank canvas to work with here because of what's come before, because of the struggles earlier in the season. There's slightly less expectation to just go bang, hit the ground running. Everyone's going to get a try. You know, Malasia and Anthony were the wingbacks the other day. Diallo then comes in. What do you make of that kind of approach? It feels a little bit more relaxed rather than the usual intense furore that we have with Manchester United normally. Yeah, and I think, I guess it's good practice.

good management you have to give everyone a chance at this point you know I think he probably looks at the squad and thinks well

if I'm going to give everyone a clean slate then I mean you know you prefer to do that in pre-season you'd rather do that you know in a summer when it doesn't matter of course but this is kind of almost like a mini pre-season for Man United at the moment they're in the middle of a season got a new manager playing a new system everyone's got a different instruction but everyone's got a clean slate suddenly you know and you've got people like Rashford who've got so much kind of baggage under Ten Hag that suddenly they can say okay this is a reset you know and and I think he said Amrim hasn't he you know that the

for these kind of players they have to show me that they're good enough to play for Manchester United you know and I mean these results I think are going to come I have to say I've seen Everton a couple of times recently and they are bad you know they're a bad team at the moment you know Failed to score a goal in each of their last four Premier League matches the last had a longer run without a goal in 2005 Yeah I mean

I hear Everton fans being very dissatisfied with Sean Dyche and I think you can see why. They're not playing exciting football and they're not playing results football either at the moment. And with the new owners, you wonder what the future is there. But in terms of United, it's a good win. And I think with Amrim, what we saw at Sporting was that he had this kind of very fundamental style of play.

but he wasn't wedded to a starting 11. He was always quite prone to rotation, giving people chances, moving people around, almost kind of in a sort of pep style almost, you know, that no one ever kind of got their feet too comfortably under the...

sofa is that a little under the sofa might hurt your ankles if you've got your feet under the sofa and I think we're seeing that here he's going to progress the team gradually and this season it's there for them United if they want to if they can get a head up of steam they'll look at this table and think okay Arsenal and Liverpool we're thinking of locks in the top four City we've disagreed about that this morning but there is there's a spot there Chelsea looking good Spurs all over the place up and down all the time

If United can get a run together, they can sneak into that conversation. So why not? Definitely one of the most positive segments we've done on Manchester United so far this season. We're coming up to a break in just a second, but I wanted to ask Hamza, I wanted to talk to you about Crystal Palace against Newcastle. That was the game you were at at the weekend. I just wanted to quickly touch on two things. Which of the two teams were happy with a point from this game?

Oh, neither were happy. Neither? I don't know. Eddie Howe was really displeased with the performance, rightly so. It was a really tough performance. They struggled. They only had one shot in the match.

Palace deserved the point at the very least. They made a lot of chances. Munoz could have had a hat-trick, probably should have had two. Scored the hardest chance of the lot. And I think it's very interesting because there's a parallel between them in that, weirdly, out of nowhere, a team that was the fourth top scorer in the league last season, Newcastle, suddenly just can't score at all. And earlier this season, and still to an extent now, Palace had a similar experience of free-flowing, attacking last season players

And then it just stopped working this season. I remember asking Oliver Glasner a few weeks ago, maybe a couple of months ago, what happened? He said, I haven't changed much at all. Like, I don't know. And Eddie Howe pretty much said the same thing again. He's like, we tweak things as you do season to season, but the fundamentals are pretty much the same. And I don't quite understand what's happening. Yeah.

it's just a matter of finding rhythm and that can come by persisting with the same methods or twisting and trying something new. Both teams, I think Glasner's sort of stuck with it.

It's up to Eddie Howe whether he tries to shake it up to find rhythm or sticks. But the other point you were... Well, I was going to talk about shaking things up and changing, so that was the only other point, was to talk about Newcastle's midfield formation. He's been working on trying to get Sandro Tonali in the team, and you saw potential a different way of working the midfield this season. Yeah, one of the discussions rumbling on for a while among Newcastle fans and Newcastle media is that whether Brunica Mourad and

and Sandro Tonali can play together and in this game we saw a slightly different way of saying yes maybe they can Tonali played as a number 6 he was very good he was industrious won the ball quite a lot and that meant Bruno Guimaraes was playing higher up field and they looked fine it looked well it looked good but

It looks alright. They look fine, they look good, it looks alright. Let me recalibrate. It was alright. That's potential. Thank you Gregor, I'm very glad that Gregor here. But yeah, so there's a vision there, something that might sort of help them further on this season and a new midfield balance. That might be interesting, it might not be, we'll see what happens. But very quickly on Manchester United, this regression in terms of goals and stuff was baked in under

Under 10, Haag. They're loads of XG. I forgot to ask you. They're shooting. I forgot to ask you. XG only had two shots. Let's not get carried away here. But still, you score. That was your point earlier in the season. That's true, right? But their XG, what was it? One point something? Their open play, actually, was 0.96 to Everton's 0.35. And the point I'm making is that often...

You have lols, like the Newcastle experience at the moment, like Palace as well, where you'll get loads of xG, you'll do the right stuff, but the ball just doesn't go in the net. And that's because finishing is a fickle skill. It's not really a skill, it just goes up and down. Very few players consistently score above their xG. Messi's won, Mbappe's won, Haaland was won, and even he is fallible, right? So this happens consistently.

Usually though when you're well under or well over your XG you have a regression and these things often coincide with managers changing. This is a new manager bounce. It's not really real. It will just be that a team is underperforming their XG and a board will go alright they're playing rubbish they're not scoring goals let

let's sack them and then they will have their regression back to the mean this look when you have four goals from 0.96 XG and you're massively under Paul Meade this season that just looks like a classic case of regression slightly over Paul Meade I thought you said lols for a minute then but you actually said lols lols

Hopefully we'll be having more lols and no lols in the second half of the show, but we're going to take a little break now, which means I'm going to ask the usual quiz question. Who am I talking about when I say a former footballer who played for Liverpool and Manchester City, as well as spending time at Leeds, Cardiff and Blackburn Rovers? Find out after the break.

Hello and welcome back to the Game Football Podcast from The Times. I'm Tom Clarke and I've got Hamza Khaliq Lunak, Gregor Robertson and Tom Orn with me and they were all scratching their heads, shocked, a bit sloppy this morning, guys need another coffee. The answer was Robbie Fowler. None of you got that. I could feel the answer. No, producer Neil got it, you lot did not get it. Yeah, producer Neil's.

an imaginary strap over his nose yes exactly yeah that helps you get it anyway moving on from a disappointing performance in the quiz to another disappointing performance for Aston Villa Villa have now gone winless in five straight Premier League games for the first time since August 2022 under Steven Gerrard the joint longest streak without a victory in the top flight along with Everton and Leicester and we've already talked about how much Everton are struggling defeat at Chelsea I wanted to start with Villa is

I've said this a couple of times on the show already this season oh it's the Champions League etc is it stacked Phil a little bit more than that Gregor? I don't think so I mean you can compare and contrast these two teams in fact Chelsea are able to play an entirely different 10 I think it was changes from Europe but they've done that consistently and Phil aren't in a position to do that part of that's because they're playing in the Champions League not the Conference League and part of it's because they don't have the same size squad but

Also just, you know, Gene Filagin coming in I think is maybe a bit of a drop off from some of the... Like I was really excited about him at the start of the season but he's not really quite... He's not really made the impact yet. Kamara's just come back from injury. I just... I think the main thing... When you asked me to make predictions that I love at the start of the season I said Villa like... I don't know, somewhere between 6th and 8th because you just look at what happened to Newcastle. This is what happens. It's...

You're playing another minimum eight games against opponents that are often as good, if not better, than the opponents you play in the Premier League. It's going to take its toll and it's already started to do so. Tom, what do you reckon about Villa and Unai Emery? Obviously a manager that's had great success in different leagues around Europe. Came to Aston Villa, everyone's like, see, this is what he could have done at Arsenal.

having a little bit of a difficult time how will he be approaching this run that they're on I mean you look at the Villa team they're a worse team than they were last year they sold Douglas Luiz they sold Moussa Diaby two really key players and you look at the list of players they brought in

Illing Junior, Fijin, Mattson, Anana. I mean, Anana's had a decent start, but apart from that, I mean, no one's really kind of set the world alight. You know, they've sold two really key players and the players they brought in, I don't think have really filled those gaps. And I hear the kind of complaints from Villa and I think the same from Newcastle about sort of how PSR...

Yeah.

I don't want to get into a PSR debate, but... No, that happens on Thursdays. You can't expand on Mondays. My view is that everyone signs up to the rules and they're there for a reason, but I do understand where Villa's frustrations are in that. I think...

they're a slightly worse team than last season. You throw in the Champions League extra exertion and I just think defensively they've been pretty poor this season. I've hardly seen them get a clean sheet and last season we know they were excellent on the counter-attack how good Watkins was but they also had a very solid hard to beat kind of defence where they would spring out and beat teams on the break. This season they're too porous. Teams are able to get at them. But Tom, like

Progress isn't always linear, right? And I think one of the things that they did with the squad this season is they recognised that the squad was ageing last season. They went, OK, we will take a short-term hit in terms of we're going to bring in a lot of new players and get rid of a few of the older ones, move them on, and we're going to recruit these guys. And the squad may not be in better shape compared to last season in terms of performances right now.

but in the next two three years I think it will be better and that they've actually tried to put the long term vision ahead of the immediate one because they are already ahead of schedule so going from 18th or whatever to 4th doesn't necessarily mean you need to go straight to 2nd it means that you can hang around 4th to 8th be

be around that for the next couple of years so that in the long run you are hitting fourth more consistently and then maybe moving up to second you're talking like a very logical football fan I'm not sure anyone does that I really like that as a future for how we consume football but these Villa fans are like we're in a Champions League we're a big club now come on I'm sure we may have mentioned this on the preview that was part of their thinking undoubtedly but the idea that they're saying we're going to make the squad weaker

Consciously knowing that they're doing so With the idea of The long term in mind I think is Would you not do that? Would you say only We've got to adjust everything all in this season Then next season we'll do the same again Obviously any kind of squad 18 year olds no We've got to have 27 year olds in all the time Any squad planning involves Finding a middle ground in that Unless you're Chelsea So like

obviously planning for the long term but you're also trying to improve your squad every single transfer window or every single year so undoubtedly Villa tried to do that but would they really want to sell Douglas Luiz probably not he's only 26 I know yeah but they sold him a

For financial reasons, let's come back to your point. So obviously you're taking that hit. God forbid a team is sustainable when they're spending, was it 85% of their turnover on wages and of their revenue on wages and transfer fees, which is ridiculous, by the way. No club should ever be in that sort of situation where they're spending that much of their money on...

player wages and transfer fees. That's silly. I think anyone that thinks that should be how we go about football is on a road to lots of clubs ending up in poor positions. So when you spend... Because their thing was, Villa's idea was, we'll sign Diaby on very big money.

Big wages, big transfer fee. And if they didn't hit top four last season, they would have been in very big financial trouble because of that spending. The wages given to him, a number of other players, and specifically spending so much of their wages when they didn't have the revenue to match it because they weren't in the Champions League. So the whole thing was like, we've got to get in the Champions League so we can afford this. That's not sensible form of

forward planning. However, this, what they've done now, seems a bit more sustainable, a bit more sensible, and I think you should just go with the flow. I think it's always funny when clubs say, you should allow us to spend what we want so we can get to the top of the league. We will do it responsibly. All the other clubs, maybe, but we know what we're doing. But

historically, all the evidence suggests that football clubs, no matter how clever and canny we think executives and football suits are, they get these things wrong and they overspend. I don't think any of us think most of the suits are canny on this show, having listened to all of you for most of the last couple of seasons. But just on Emery, one thing is that I do think...

The broader picture of Emery, and it's a sweeping generalisation, but in his career, he's been very good at turning teams from, let's say, you know, 15th or mid-table into kind of Champions League, Challengers, 3rd, 4th, 5th kind of area. That has been an absolutely, something he's done throughout his career really well. Very good at making sort of 6 or 7 out of 10 players into 8 or 9 out of 10 players,

There is also the asterisk, I think, with Emery, and Arsenal fans would say this, that he has struggled historically to turn that team from a fourth into a second. And why is that? I think it's partly because, as a coach, he's extremely good at devising plans according to opponents, very clever at making specific strategies that work on specific days.

When the rest of the league start to think, this is how Villa play, we're going to go and try and get a draw against them. We know they're a really good team. We're happy with the point. Does Emery have that in him to be the kind of proactive manager that says, this is how we play and we will beat you at it because we're better than you at doing our thing? I think that's where sometimes there's been a bit of a gap in his coaching now. He's a brilliant manager, but I think at that real top level, that has been sometimes maybe why he's kind of struggled.

interesting test ahead for Unai Emery then we're talking about squad you know squad strength and things one team with a very strong squad as Gregor alluded to already is Chelsea just a very quick question on them because I wanted to focus mainly on Villa because

3-0 Chelsea home win is almost like a 2-0 Liverpool home win it's becoming the norm at Stamford Bridge this season Gregor's you know raising his eyebrows but even he has to admit it they're starting to look very impressive particularly at Stamford Bridge we're going to talk about Arsenal in just a second and Tom this isn't a giveaway because you mentioned it in the first half of the show that you think Arsenal are still in the title contention nine points off Chelsea are in exactly the same position are they in title contention?

I mean, just a fair to Cole Palmer. How good was his interview? It was like, are you in the title race? He went, nah, man. That was it. And then it was like... Not known for his long answers to questions, Cole. He pulled his own pace as well. It almost went...

That's the question we've been asked. It was brilliant. He's not an easy man to interview, but... What did he say? It's too early. That's what he said. But do you think it's... That's part of the mentality that Maresca's got with this team, that they're just kind of enjoying themselves, they're scoring lots of goals, they're creating lots of chances at home. Do you think that kind of, don't be daft, is helping them?

Mippy I mean you're going to do it every answer now that's a fair point because like Mariska said the same Mariska said there are things about our team that we are still behind City, Arsenal, Liverpool but behind closed doors if your message is kind of that but caveated with this is what we're striving for

this is what we're striving for guys and we're getting closer that's a motivational tool as well so I agree there can be some sort of aspect to that in the way that I think you can see it in the way that Chelsea are playing they are far more confident and playing with a bit of swagger now so

yeah I come back to it I'm not sure how much credit I'll ever be able to give them You've got a couple of weeks off coming up mate we can give them loads of credit while you're off and then wait until they have a bit of a blip in the new year and then you can come back fighting talking about how useless they are terrible planning from the owners etc etc I said we're going to talk about Arsenal let's do that now absolutely crazy first half at West Ham Tom you were there

I wanted to just ask first, were you sat there thinking, I'll be honest, from the outside, cynical editor, I was like, this is nil-nil second half. Absolutely no way there's going to be any more goals. Or were you like, come on, 10-4, let's do it. It's always the way, isn't it? You always have these amazing first halves and the second half is a complete damn squib. Yeah, I mean, to be honest, it was a game when you were watching it live that the golf in class was so huge, it was just surprising that West Ham weren't

more humiliated and there was a really funny thing actually not funny for West Ham fans but when Arsenal scored a fourth the press box at the London Stadium is sort of quite above the sort of lower tier so you could see a whole stream this was about it must have been about the 35th minute I think it was Arsenal made it 4-0 and West Ham fans just you know

streaming out you know had enough they're leaving I don't know maybe going for half time early but possibly just leaving and then West Ham scored two goals and you see all these guys sort of sheepishly sort of coming back in you know shuffling in and then Arsenal went out the other end scored a fifth and actually no you're right we made it right the first time out they go again you know sort of in out hokey-cokey thing I'd love to have known the dynamics with the groups of friends that one friend who was like even when he heard the goals going in he's like no I'm still going to the pub I'm sick of this yeah so you think was this you

you know it's a classic Monday question that I ask quite a lot about when it's a draw but five goals for Arsenal looking brilliant Martin Odegaard again fantastic Saka again brilliant

Or is this more worrying then for West Ham and Julian Lopetegui than it is impressive for Arsenal? Both. I think Arsenal were really good and I was in Lisbon in midweek as well and I saw them destroy sporting as well. So what you're saying for Arsenal fans is that you've seen them score 10 goals in two games and I need to send you exclusively to Arsenal games from now on. They'll be right into me, tom.cluck at thetimes.co.uk if you want to make it happen. Send Tom on the tour your games from now on. I think Arsenal look like they're back, I've got to say. I know they've got...

a points deficit to make up on Liverpool but they're just playing so well at the moment you know they've got all their players back the attack looks like it's really flowing again the defence looks solid

I mean, I know Arteta will probably, you know, on Saturday night would have been turning in his bed thinking about those two goals that West Ham scored before halftime. And fine, you know, if you want to kind of extrapolate that and think that Arsenal have still got a sort of soft belly and they can fold easily, I guess there is that there. But that wasn't what I came away thinking. I thought it was a really comprehensive performance. And to me...

I see Arsenal right in this race. I really do. I think they've had a really difficult first few months for all the reasons we know. But they've got a fit squad now. They're playing really well. And they've got a great fixture list. You look at the fixture list all the way through the end of the season now, and there aren't many games you look at and you think, Arsenal aren't going to win that match. If we think that Liverpool are going to, at some point, plateau a little bit...

It doesn't take much. At this point in December where there's two or three games every week, a couple of draws here and there, suddenly that gap comes down to four or five points. Arsenal, I think, have got a great chance. I really do. I think they're right in there. If it's not going to be City, I think it's going to be Liverpool versus Arsenal this season. I agree. They're the team to capitalise. The other thing is just how solid they are at the back. I know this was a game where you think,

Possibly that's kind of... They could have allowed them back into the game. But they're just mountainous at the back. And also the set pieces, another one. It's like a slight variation. Hamza and I have kind of got this fetish about these set pieces, I think, now. We're like... They're running from the back post, but then Gabriel does this sort of zigzag run and then swung out. I don't know how he marked that. Just double up on him. Literally just double up on him. Yeah, but then even...

You've got to be in front of him too Then they'll work out something to do with the player that you've left to double up on That's fine but like double up on him Don't do what Antonio did Antonio did nothing It was pathetic but it's so hard to mark and it's just a constant constant Southampton double up on him well weirdly enough Southampton showed how to do it against Arsenal from set pieces There you go When we talk about midfields I mean if you think

We're talking about City's midfield and Liverpool's midfield. I think that Odegaard, Rice, ahead of Thomas, midfield three for Arsenal. I don't look around Europe right now and think there are many better midfield trios than that in terms of balance of craft and power, defensive ability. When they're fit, all three of those guys, they know where each other are. They were rubbish two weeks ago. Without Odegaard, everyone was like, this midfield is diabolical. I watched them. What was it?

against Southampton I was bored out of my head honestly but Hampton without Odegaard that's a third of the midfield gone I'm talking about these three Odegaard, Rice yeah but his career match is like 2800 minutes how many games has he got left in his legs I don't know like 15, 20 something like that

Over the whole season, not just in the league, right? We need to work out when this career max line is that we get Hamza back on the show in like February, March and just see whether he's right with these statistics that everyone's going to season finishes in February, March by the sound of it. In a certain place it does, doesn't it? It's a fair point. With Arsenal, the one thing I think they have and I think their rotations, if you look in their kind of their first 11, they need their key players fit maybe more than Liverpool. You know, you look at who's their replacement for Odegaard? Big question. Who's their replacement for Saliba or Gabriel? Pfft.

you know, who's their replacement for Saka. If they can keep those sort of 13, 14 players fit, they've got a great chance. If not, then obviously they'll be affected. Big pressure on Julian Lopetegui as well. He takes his team to Ruud van Nistelrooy's Leicester on Tuesday. Lose that and he's out.

Looks like a must-win game, doesn't it? Looks like a must-win game. We'll be discussing that on Thursday's show, I'm sure. Just a quick word for Tottenham fans. Loads of praise recently, and rightly so, but the most predictable result of the weekend, Tottenham 1, Fulham 1 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Tom, we saw it coming a mile off. You should have put your mortgage on it. And I mean that in the nicest way possible, but this is what we've said. The rule is, every game you think Spurs will win, they don't, and every game you think they'll lose, they do. So they've kept that going. To be fair to Spurs...

To look into the slight nuances of this, they have a real injury crisis right now. Romero out, Van de Ven out, Solanke pulled out. Didn't matter against Man City. Well, Solanke pulled out last minute with illness. Yes, that's a big play. Vicario, obviously, now is also out. So these are key guys for Spurs. This was probably not the moment that Postacogli would have chosen to prove their consistency when they're really struggling for those key players. But you're right, you know, you're right.

It's interesting whether he can... I just love him to win 1-0 at some point against the team, you know, around the mid-table battle. Let's finish with a look at Bournemouth against Wolves. Wolves, I wanted to mention this statistic. They've scored 22 goals and conceded 32 after 13 games in the Premier League this season. The earliest into a top-flight campaign, a team has scored more than 20 and conceded more than 30 since Watford in 1984.

I mean they're great entertainers Gregor, you saw them last week win 4-1 at Fulham, full of praise for Mateus Cunha, then they get a home game against Bournemouth and shit four including three penalties. Yeah I mean the three penalties didn't help. All won, not only all scored by Justin Cliver, all won by Evan Nielsen as well. Fantastic, that's a great fact. Yeah I mean it looked like they'd really turned a corner, they were excellent against Fulham last time out and

Cunha's been in ridiculous form There were a few moments in this Andre Andre Andre Andre He's come into the team He looked quite good last week But he gave the ball away On numerous occasions In this game That were kind of In really dangerous areas Allowed breaks But I also I'm inclined to give Bournemouth A lot of credit for this This performance And I think O'Neill was as well too He said there are things That Bournemouth do

really well and we didn't Is he going to go on Monday Night Football and show them what they did well like he did last season when he managed to beat them? Probably not but what he's talking about is the way they press and it's as good as anyone in the league I think Spurs are ahead of them for either ball one at the final third or PPDA They are

Factually or are you talking about from the eye test? Both. I think they're behind Spurs for one and ahead of them for another. The kind of two main metrics that Hamza will probably be able to tell me. But for the eye test, I think Bournemouth are the best pressers in the league. Would anyone disagree with that? I'd agree actually with that, yeah. Oh, that's nice. They're proper relentless and they also have that bit of craft when they win it back. There was...

probably build up to one of the penalties or was it a goal where Ryan Christie in a little nutmeg was like a little ball into the feet laid it back and then he kind of cut it with outside his foot out wide just great kind of incisive football after they've done the thing that they do so well as Gary O'Neill described it so they're like they're one of the teams as well that you look at and you see that's clear evidence of excellent coaching like

They win the ball back relentlessly, they hound in the opposition and then when they win it back it's not like they have a clear purpose and it's to get the ball forward as quickly as possible and get players forward in support as well.

Yeah, I mean every time I see Bournemouth I agree, they look like a really well coached team. The only thing I was surprised at was that they're 13th. I was just looking at that and thinking... In my head, Bournemouth are like 7th. Yeah. Having a really great season. I'm sat here thinking, God, we've not even mentioned Nottingham Forest in 6th, barely mentioned Brighton in 4th and we're giving loads of praise to Bournemouth in 13th. But Gregor, as you say, it is tight. Brighton in 4th on 23 points, Bournemouth in 13th on 18 points.

anything can happen. Good job, there's loads of festive fixtures to come where everything can change, as Hamza said at the start of the show. Yes, you're waving at me now. You're quite right. A point of order. Okay. Go on. Probability thing. We discussed, well, you guys discussed probabilities on Thursday.

Actually, on the penalties, right? How probabilities work is that you take the odds of something happening and then you multiply by that happening again. So there's a discussion about the casino and red and black. Oh, yeah. The way it works, three penalties, right? What's the odds of someone scoring three penalties? And I'll tell you. Statistically, the XG of a penalty is 0.79. So the probability is 0.79. So to work out the probability of scoring two penalties, you times 0.79 by 0.79, which you get 0.62. Right.

And if you do it for three penalties, you do it again, and then you get 0.49. So the probability of scoring three penalties is 0.49. And returning to the casino thing, right, the 28 or 24 in a row thing, the probability of that happening is 0.5 times 0.5 times all the way up to 24. The little ball, as Martin described it, it does think about that, the probabilities of that happening. No matter if it's 23 times in a row if it's red, 23 times in a row if it's black, the next time it happens...

The chance of it going red or black, ah...

The same. Yeah, number five. Exactly. Super. So now that's GCSE maths for everyone. Wonderful maths lesson at the end. And speaking of balls, let's talk about the FA Cup and all the balls that are going to be in the hat with a third round draw later on today. A few little pointers we just want to mention. Big win for the Mighty Imps. 4-3 at Crawley. What a comeback. 2-0 down we were, guys. What a thrilling turnaround. Eric Ring's goal, an absolute thunder blaster from the edge of the box. Check it out. But Tom, you wanted to mention a wonderful goal, a wonderful moment, a moment we all love, a goal from a goalkeeper.

Yeah, I mean, every time a goalkeeper goes up, you never think they're going to score. But this was a good header. Good header. Really good header. And also, a Tottenham young goalkeeper. You're talking about Tottenham needing a goalkeeper. I know this will upset our colleague James, who's a late-in-Orient fan, but, you know, maybe it's time to recall him. Yeah, they need one, don't they? I mean...

if he can score ahead or he can probably play out from the back as well very postacoglu as well goalkeeper going up and you know trying to score everyone trying to score goals never mind about trying to keep them out I enjoyed his quotes the fact that he didn't have a goal bonus in his contract as well and he was assuming next time he's going to put one in and his mum and dad were all from Ireland yeah that's a great timing yes absolutely wonderful timing he did have to drive them back to the airport afterwards rather than celebrate what was his name?

Josh Keighley made FA Cup history and then had to take his parents back to the airport Greg a final mention for you from a team that we've mentioned on the EFL show but blending the two managing to get in a mention for Wickham Wanderers who beat Worldstone to move into the third round but you've written a feature on them and they're brilliant so far this season well just because it also continued and now a 11 game winning streak

So arguably the farm team in the country So I think that's more than Liverpool as well And there's a great story yeah Because there's a huge kind of Long shadow cast over League 1 By Birmingham City and Wrexham Who've obviously got celebrity And a lot of money on their side And Wickham also have a lot of money But they're kind of still managing to be the underdogs They've always been the underdogs But they've got a It's probably passed under most people's radars But they've got a Georgian billionaire as owner Who bought the club in the summer And

Who's worth 5.8 billion As estimated by Forbes He owns and runs an app In Kazakhstan That's used by half the population It's like your banking Payment platform Marketplace Super app thing That's spreading throughout Central Asia He's the real deal He's not ploughing money into the team They've still got the 9th highest budget in the league I think

what his goal is is to reopen an academy that was closed in 2012 because of cuts because they were owned by the Supporters Trust

And he's already moved that to QPR's old training ground, so it's in the capital. They've got a good catchment area and built one of the best youth systems in the country at Little Wickham Wanderers. And that's how he's going to try and fuel the rise also, invest in data and stuff to improve the recruitment. So they were already in a good run of momentum from the new year. Matt Bloomfield, the manager, really exciting up-and-coming young coach. Stryker and Richard Coney, who...

He could make a movie about his life He's only 21 Came over from the Ivory Coast As a teenager He'd been homeless back in his homeland Played in the Homeless World Cup And then scored a bag full of goals In the Essex Senior League I think For a team there Signed for Wickham in the New Year Scored 12 goals this season He looks like, again, the real deal So really good story Another really good story in League 1 And this FA Cup game

just sort of continued a ridiculous run I think 17 wins in 20 the only team who've beaten them were Aston Villa in the EFL Cup and only just as well and only just because of a dodgy penalty Wickham, Leighton Orient and Lincoln City in the hat for the third round of the FA Cup Dagenham and Redbridge Tamworth good luck to the two non-league teams who are in there as well we hope you get Liverpool Manchester City if you get Lincoln I can only apologise we'll leave it there Hamza Khaliq Lunak Gregor Robertson and Tom Allnut thank you very much for joining me thank you too for listening we'll be back on Thursday we'll see you then