Nuclear deterrence is dangerous because its effectiveness relies on the belief that nuclear weapons will be used. If this belief is strong enough, it increases the likelihood of actual use, making the foundation of nuclear peace unstable and precarious.
The UN primarily serves as a multilateral diplomatic platform, allowing conflicting parties to engage in dialogue. It also creates political and moral pressure, supports humanitarian aid, and maintains a semblance of international legitimacy, even if it cannot enforce resolutions due to veto powers of permanent Security Council members.
The UN's effectiveness is limited by its reliance on consensus among major powers, particularly the five permanent Security Council members who hold veto power. If these powers disagree, the UN cannot enforce resolutions, rendering it ineffective in resolving conflicts where major powers are involved.
The two types of legally recognized wars are self-defense wars, where a country responds to an attack, and wars authorized by the UN Security Council to restore peace. All other forms of war are considered illegal under international law.
Preventive self-defense complicates international law because it allows a country to strike first if it believes an attack is imminent. This concept is controversial as it can be easily abused to justify preemptive strikes, blurring the line between legitimate self-defense and aggression.
The UN's neutrality is crucial for its legitimacy and effectiveness. While it is not perfectly neutral due to influences from member states and cultural biases, it strives to maintain an objective stance. This neutrality allows it to serve as a trusted platform for dialogue and humanitarian efforts, even in highly polarized conflicts.
If the U.S. withdraws from the UN, it could lead to a significant reduction in funding and resources for the organization, particularly in areas like peacekeeping and humanitarian aid. This could create a vacuum in global governance, as other countries may not be willing or able to fill the leadership and financial gap left by the U.S.
Power transition theory suggests that conflicts are most likely to occur when a rising power's strength approaches that of a declining dominant power. The declining power may attempt to assert its dominance through conflict to prevent being overtaken peacefully, leading to heightened tensions and potential war.
Technology has significantly impacted international relations by accelerating the speed of warfare, enabling globalization, and facilitating cross-border communication. It has also introduced new challenges, such as cybercrime and the influence of multinational corporations, which can rival the power of nation-states in certain contexts.
The three main theoretical approaches are realism, which focuses on power and self-interest; liberalism, which emphasizes cooperation and mutual benefit through institutions and trade; and constructivism, which examines how shared beliefs and identities shape international behavior and norms.
世界的运行规则是什么?国际秩序的本质是什么?
有人说,我们正处于”历史的垃圾时间“中。无论你是否认同这个说法,都会观察到俄乌战争、巴以冲突,以及其中的分歧、争论、对抗等一次次突破了原本应该被国际法和各种国际机构把持住的底线。在更根本的阵营立场与利益关系面前,现有的国际秩序暴露了它的脆弱,“世界的运行规则”似乎正在走向瓦解与失效。但真的如此吗?国际秩序的本质是什么?在军事实力面前,规则只是“厕纸”吗?
本期节目,我们有幸邀请到了国际关系学者、B站知名国际关系up主 小Q不是导盲犬 做客,来聊聊联合国等国际机构在当下的作用,以及国际关系的底层问题。
小Q不是导盲犬
国际关系学者,曾在多个联合国机构任职
B站知名国际关系(常被挪揄为“厕纸区“)up主,拥有超200万粉丝
B站:小Q不是导盲犬
在本期你会听到:
在本期内容里,我们从俄乌和巴以的冲突聊起,聊到了联合国在如今世界的作用是什么。它能预防世界秩序的崩坏吗?它有没有什么bug?国际关系的运行机制是什么?都有哪些主流理论?什么是合法的战争?核和平的理论靠谱吗?人类从历史中学到教训了吗?马上要到来的美国大选对于未来的世界秩序意味着什么?以及中国会提出新的游戏规则吗?等等话题。
小Q老师的表达清晰而中立,相信你也一定能从中获取价值!那就请你,和我们一起加入这场对话吧!
结语
天宇:本期让我感受很深的是“关系”的多样与复杂性。国与国之间,究竟什么是值得追求,什么又是可以放弃的利益,或许很难判断,也时时刻刻发生着变化。人与人之间可能也一样,我们都身处在属于自己和周围的动态权力平衡之中。哈萨克斯坦思想家阿拜·库南巴耶夫曾经写过这样一段话:“世界有如海洋,时代有如劲风,前浪如兄长,后浪是兄弟,风拥后浪推前浪,亘古及今皆如此。“我想,无论是海洋还是劲风,都比我们这些渺小的个体更有力量,但我们仍然可以有许多方式航行在大洋之上。
本期节目制作
王一山(制片人)
在洋(节目剪辑)
Alan(节目运营)
TIANYU2FM的理念:每期对谈有价值的声音
我们是天宇和天域,是挚友,也是一起求知的伙伴。这是一档为了开拓眼界,走出自我局限而设立的播客,我们通过与人的对谈来与未知的领域及知识互动。
主持人简介
天宇 | 大白(声调偏低):从事中日流行文化与媒介研究(文章见于澎湃新闻私家历史、网易新闻历史频道等)
天域 | 杰激(声调偏高):服装电商公司创始人、UnDeR20合伙人(小红书:李天域Jack))
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