cover of episode Which policies will impact the U.S. economy in 2025?

Which policies will impact the U.S. economy in 2025?

2024/12/10
logo of podcast Strategic Alternatives

Strategic Alternatives
People
F
Frances Donald
M
Mike Reed
Topics
Mike Reed: 2024年的美国经济势头将延续到2025年，但2025年上半年将面临更多逆风，包括消费者的乐观情绪上升、消费韧性、有利的税收政策、放松管制和更严格的移民政策等。这些因素将导致劳动力市场更加紧张，从而导致增长和通货膨胀预测的风险偏向上行。 2025年，美国经济将继续正常化，GDP增长将回落至2%左右，消费将继续推动GDP增长，尽管低收入和中等收入消费者因物价上涨和利率上升而受到影响。 关税对通胀的影响取决于其在生产者物价指数(PPI)和消费者物价指数(CPI)中的体现，企业利润高和潜在的企业税率降低可能抵消部分影响。 移民流入减少和潜在的驱逐出境可能会导致工资压力再次上升，加剧通货膨胀。商品价格的通缩压力可能会消失，劳动力市场和住房将导致服务业通胀持续存在。 2025年初美联储可能暂停加息，但住房供应短缺将持续推高通胀，抵押贷款利率将维持高位。 如果美联储利率过高，依赖信贷的消费者将受到影响，学生贷款偿还政策的变化也可能对消费产生影响。 退休率和“先买后付”模式是影响经济预测的两个风险因素，后者缺乏高质量的数据。 Frances Donald: 美国经济表面强劲，但存在K型发展态势，大公司和高收入家庭受益，而低收入家庭和小企业则较为脆弱。 美国经济表现优于其他发达国家，这部分原因是政府支出，但这种增长并非完全由私营部门驱动，也存在扭曲。 经济学家需要关注政策而非政治，目前美国经济面临不确定性冲击，未来政策的规模、时间和范围尚不明确，但方向已知。 关税对经济的影响分四个阶段：提前活动、一次性价格冲击、需求下降和结构性活动再布局，时间顺序至关重要。 通胀驱动因素正在发生变化，不再仅仅是需求端因素，供应链中断、极端天气等因素也导致通胀，且这些新类型的通胀对利率的敏感度较低。 美联储可能需要将中性利率提高到4%左右才能保持经济平衡，这与其他发达国家的预期存在较大差异，美国经济的结构性变化和周期性变化共同推动了这种差异。 美联储面临利率政策过紧或过松的风险，在经济对利率敏感性降低的环境下，找到中性利率将非常困难。 美联储利率政策、贸易冲突和政策不确定性是影响经济预测的风险因素。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What are the key themes shaping the U.S. economy in 2025?

The U.S. economy in 2025 is expected to continue its momentum from 2024, with GDP growth normalizing towards 2%. Key themes include resilient consumption, favorable tax policies, deregulation, stricter immigration policies, and a tighter labor market. However, there are underlying K-shaped dynamics, where large corporations and high-income households thrive, while lower-income households and small businesses face challenges. U.S. exceptionalism, driven by productivity gains from AI and significant government spending, will also play a major role.

Why is the U.S. economy expected to diverge from other developed nations in 2025?

The U.S. economy is expected to diverge due to structural factors like higher productivity from the AI boom, substantial government spending, and a unique fiscal stance. These elements are not matched in other developed economies, leading to sustained growth in the U.S. while others lag. This divergence is increasingly seen as structural rather than cyclical, with themes like U.S. exceptionalism driving economic performance.

How will immigration policies impact the U.S. labor market in 2025?

Stricter immigration policies in 2025 are expected to tighten the labor market by reducing the available workforce. This could lead to increased wage pressures, particularly in sectors reliant on immigrant labor. The reversal of immigration inflows, combined with potential deportations, may exacerbate job openings and push wage growth closer to the levels seen in 2021 and 2022.

What are the potential effects of tariffs on the U.S. economy in 2025?

Tariffs could impact the U.S. economy in four stages: initial front-loading of activity, a one-time price shock, a subsequent demand shock, and potential reshoring of activity. The timing and magnitude of these effects will vary, with early stages potentially boosting growth through inventory increases, while later stages could dampen demand and complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation management.

How is inflation expected to evolve in 2025, and what are the key drivers?

Inflation in 2025 is expected to remain sticky, particularly in services, due to wage pressures from a tighter labor market and the end of goods deflation. Housing costs, which lag in inflation measures, will also contribute to upward pressure. Additionally, factors like immigration policies, geopolitical events, and weather disruptions are increasingly influencing inflation, making it less sensitive to traditional interest rate policies.

What is the Federal Reserve's challenge in determining the neutral rate in 2025?

The Federal Reserve faces the challenge of identifying the neutral rate, which neither tightens nor eases the economy. In 2025, the neutral rate is expected to be higher than historically, potentially around 4%, due to structural changes in the economy. Misjudging this rate could lead to either excessive tightening, slowing the economy, or insufficient tightening, allowing inflation to remain elevated.

What are the risks to the U.S. economic outlook in 2025?

Key risks include delayed retirements, which could increase unemployment, and the unknown impact of Buy Now, Pay Later programs on consumer debt. Geopolitical risks, trade conflicts, and supply chain disruptions also pose significant threats. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's potential missteps in managing the neutral rate could lead to economic volatility.

How will housing market dynamics affect inflation in 2025?

The housing market is expected to add inflationary pressure in 2025 due to a structural shortage of homes for sale. Existing homeowners with low mortgage rates are unlikely to move, limiting supply, while higher rates weigh on new home construction. This dynamic will keep housing costs elevated, contributing to sticky inflation in the CPI measure.

Chapters
The podcast discusses the U.S. economic outlook for 2025, predicting continued normalization with GDP growth returning to around 2%. However, underlying factors reveal a K-shaped recovery, with large corporations and high-income households faring better than smaller businesses and lower-income consumers.
  • Positive outlook for the US economy remains unchanged.
  • Momentum from 2024 expected to carry over.
  • More headwinds than tailwinds in the first half of 2025.
  • Consumption expected to drive GDP growth.
  • K-shaped recovery: large corporations and high-income households driving growth, while smaller businesses and lower-income households experience weakness.

Shownotes Transcript

2025 will see the U.S. economy diverge even further from other developed nations, in ways that begin to look structural rather than cyclical. That’s one of the predictions from RBC Capital Markets’ Chief Economist Frances Donald and U.S. Economist Mike Reid in their outlook for the next year. They join Vito Sperduto, Head of RBC Capital Markets U.S. to weigh the economic impact of the incoming administration’s policies – and the tough line the Fed will need to tread in 2025.