What Lower Interest Rates Mean For The Economy
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This message comes from Carvana. Carvana makes car selling easy. Enter your license plate or VIN, answer some questions, and Carvana will give you a real offer in seconds. Whether you're looking to sell your car right now or whenever feels right, go to Carvana.com to sell your car the convenient way. The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the U.S., meets this week. On the table is whether it should lower its main interest rate in an effort to keep the economy strong.

After years of raising rates to higher levels than Americans saw since before the Great Recession, the Fed is now bringing them down. But it's a delicate balance. The Fed has to keep markets calm about its decisions while working with incomplete data about where the economy stands across many different data points, like unemployment and prices. Here's Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaking in November. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.

The strength we're currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. Now, we've been talking a lot about interest rates and inflation in the last few years, but how does all this high-level economic policy actually affect your bottom line? What does it really mean for your family and your bank account? That's what we're digging into today. I'm Jen White. You're listening to the 1A Podcast, where we get to the heart of the story. Stay with us. We've got a lot to get into.

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Let's dig into the Federal Reserve with Michelle Singletary. She's a personal finance columnist for The Washington Post and author of What to Do with Your Money When Crisis Hits, a survival guide. She joins us from Maryland. Michelle, welcome back to the program. Oh, thank you for having me. And joining us from Washington, D.C. is Reed Pickard. She's Federal Reserve and U.S. Economy Editor for Bloomberg News. Reed, welcome to 1A. Thank you.

Hi, thank you for having me. Rhea, let's start with the very basic of basics. What is the Federal Reserve? So the Federal Reserve is the U.S.'s central bank. And the way that I like to think of them is through what they are mandated by Congress to focus on. They're supposed to focus on price stability and what's called full employment, which is basically a term meant to describe the lowest unemployment you can have without sparking inflation.

So all of the decisions that they make are around these two goals. So sometimes the Fed has to focus more on one than the other, and that's what we've been seeing these last few years with how inflation has been. But every decision

Every decision that they make is to keep that price stability and to keep the economy continuing going on and that Americans have jobs. Now, the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee is meeting today and tomorrow. The 12 committee members will review and decide the direction of the country's monetary policy. That includes whether to change its main interest rate called the federal funds rate. So in a nutshell, what is that interest rate, Reid?

So the federal funds rate is basically the interest rate at which banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. And why it's important for us is that rate indirectly impacts all kinds of other borrowing costs Americans face. So think mortgage rates, auto loans, credit card rates. And so, you know, kind of thinking big picture, the idea for the Fed is they use this tool to try to slow or stimulate the economy to meet those inflation and employment goals I was talking about.

So if interest rates are lower, for instance, it's easier for Americans to buy cars, homes, and spend on other goods and services. And it's also easier for businesses to invest in equipment and technology. And so, you know, with that stronger demand, businesses have more incentive to hire.

lowering unemployment, and putting more money into the pockets of Americans. And that's essentially kind of how this specific, you know, perhaps rate that doesn't necessarily impact your day-to-day life kind of all comes together. Michelle, what parts of the economy tend to respond quickly to a cut in the Federal Reserve's interest rate?

Anything with an adjustable rate, adjustable rate, home equity line of credit, credit cards, even the savings rate. You know, people for the longest time, it felt like you were paying the bank to hold your money. It's like they weren't paying you very much. And now, you know, you have institutions that are...

paying you 4% to 5% to hold your money, which they then use to lend to other folks. And so those are the things. I think the thing that concerns me the most is credit card rates, right? They're really high levels right now, 20% or more for the average credit card rate. And I am always on my, you know how I am, like, get rid of that debt, get rid of that debt.

And so those rates tend to be very sensitive to what the Fed does. Now, the Federal Reserve cut its interest rate twice this fall in September and November, and that's after a period of raising rates starting in early 2022 to try to combat inflation. It then kept that rate higher than it had during the past decade. After those rate cuts this fall, Michelle, what happened in the consumer economy?

So, you know, things came down a little bit. It was a little cheaper to buy, say, a car, which, you know, inflation really did a number on automobile sales. It was, you know, it's still pretty, it costs a lot to get a car right now, used or new. And so you saw those rates tick down a little bit. Even though there's not a direct line between mortgage rates and the Fed rate, there is a relationship.

And so mortgage rates have been kind of going up and going down, but not as much as it was before the pandemic. I mean, we got used to these super low rates and that's what people are comparing that to now. And so when you have mortgage rates at six and 7%, depending on your credit history, even higher, it, that,

impacts how much house you can buy and your monthly payment every month. And so it's the same thing with credit cards. The credit cards shot up in terms of the debt that people are revolving. Now, if you pay off your credit card bill every month, it doesn't matter what the rate is because you're not paying that.

And the same thing with auto loans and if you have an adjustable rate mortgage or an arm. Michelle, what parts of the economy are slower to respond to rate changes? I think right now still mortgages is still tough. I think people felt like as the Fed was lowering the rates that mortgages would get back down to 3% and 4%. That hasn't happened. And there's a lot of disappointment in that area. Credit card rates are still very high. Yes.

used car and new car loan rates came down somewhat. So that made it a little easier for people. I think the area that is not directly related to rates per se is like the cost to buy a home, the cost to rent. Um,

still people go to the grocery store, even though inflation has come down, things are still high compared to what it was before. Because we as consumers compare. So we're not looking at, you know, economists and all of us who are in this business go, things are much better, guys. Like we did not go into a recession. But what

people are feeling is, if my eggs are a dollar more, that's a dollar less that I have to spend on something else. And while macro, it may not, it's a better picture. Micro, for everyday people, it costs more to put food on your table, to put gas in your

car to rent an apartment. I have 20-something-year-olds, and they were trying to rent something in our area. We live in the Washington, D.C. area, and it was just insane. And so my husband and I said, you all just need to stay living at home because that's just too much money. And so that's where the price sensitivity comes for consumers. Rhi, when we talk about these interest rates,

And these cuts and such, people often think, as Michelle has been laying out for us, they think about the mortgage rate. They think about buying a car. Where are the places where consumers maybe don't think about a change in the cost of something because the Fed makes a move in one direction or another? Right.

That's a great question. I think, you know, the Fed is attempting to keep things stable. They're attempting to get to that 2% inflation goal. But, you know, to Michelle's point, you know, what folks are really feeling is that cumulative burden of inflation. So, you know, even if you are...

moving inflation lower and lower, albeit still higher than the Fed would like it to be, you are going to the store and seeing things are more expensive than they were before. The goal of the Fed, of course, is to be working in the background so that these types of things never get out of hand. But in the moment now, when they're more in a crisis management type of front, where they are really trying... Inflation did...

so fast above their 2% target, they're really trying to get that price level, not that price level, the pace of price growth back to that 2%. And then hopefully the kind of things in the background going on, whether they hold rates still,

or they lower rates or raise rates in the future won't feel as top of mind for Americans. Now, the Federal Reserve was created by the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. But we got this question from Nicholas in Cincinnati who says, why was the Federal Reserve founded and what would happen to the U.S. if we didn't have it? Reid?

That is an excellent question. I'm afraid I don't have a full, thorough history lesson on hand. But more generally, the idea of having a central bank is to be able to bring this kind of stability to a country's banking system, to their financial markets. In the case of the United States, the Federal Reserve really makes efforts to have this sound and resilient banking system.

as well as these goals of, you know, full employment and price stability. It also allows for those decisions to be, you know, a couple steps away from the government themselves. You know, part of the reason the Fed is built as it is in terms of folks having longer term

terms that go across different administrations, is that those folks can make the best decisions for the economy at that moment. You also see this kind of decentralized structure where you have seven folks who are based in Washington, what's known as the Federal Reserve Board, but then you

also have regional banks across the country in these 12 other positions that always, you know, meet in Washington when you have those meetings every six weeks or so and are able to talk about what's happening in their local areas to make sure policy is working well for the folks that they serve and are talking to on a day-to-day basis. Let's head into our voicemail box.

Hi, my name is Evan. My wife and I had twins a couple of years ago, which of course forced us to move into a larger home right at peak interest rates. So we financed at 7%. And we've kind of been stuck in a holding pattern for the last couple of years, waiting for the Fed to slowly walk those interest rates down. I know a lot of other homeowners are also kind of stuck in like a 2% mortgage where they don't want to leave their home because they know it's unlikely that they would ever

be able to finance at that rate again. My question is, is there a reason why the Fed can't divorce the federal interest rate from the mortgage interest rate? It seems like it'd be really beneficial for the Fed to be able to address all the various aspects of the economy separately in a manner where they wouldn't have to worry about, you know, crashing the housing market when they want to address inflation. I'm going to hear from both of you on that. Reid, I'll come to you first.

That's an interesting point, and it's something that, you know, is uniquely American in some ways, given the prevalence of, you know, 30-year fixed loans here in terms of thinking about people being able to lock in a 2% mortgage or, you know, a very low mortgage in times like that and thus keep, you know, that lock-in effect that makes it so that folks don't want to sell their homes when rates move higher. But in terms of thinking about, you know, separating those two things, I...

I don't know how they would really do that because the way that the, as Michelle pointed out, you know, it's not this one-for-one relationship with mortgage rates and the benchmark interest rate that the Fed moves. But it is important.

impacted a lot by what happens about what kind of expectations for future interest rates are. You know, so for instance, we saw mortgage rates dip in September when there were fears about the labor market and it was thought the Fed was going to have to cut more steeply to support the economy. And then, of course, since then, the labor market fears have escalated.

ebbs and inflation has stayed elevated, which has led folks to expect fewer rate cuts in the future than they did even just a few months ago, which has impacted mortgage rates. And you've seen mortgage rates pop right back up. But I'd love to hear Michelle's thoughts on this as well. Yeah, Michelle?

Yeah. So, you know, this is a thing when people ask me, should I buy now? Or, you know, oh my gosh, rates are going to go down, it's going to go up. We don't know what's going to happen. And so what you have to do is make the best decision you can in the moment with the money that you have. And so if you are ready for

Evan and their family to move up, they can afford that rate at 7%. And then perhaps wait for rates to come down. Some of us who are older, more seasoned folks, remember when the mortgage rates were like 12% and y'all are financing about 7%. We're like, y'all don't know. You know?

And so that's why you have to sort of put it in perspective of your situation. I have two 20-some-year-olds who just bought their first home. Yay, getting out of my house. Um...

Now you told them to stay there. I just want to point out, Michelle. I did. I did. And you know, it was the right decision because they spent the last two or three years saving up enough money. So they moved into it. This is what my point is. They've sent the last two at our house, saving money without any rent. And so they had to get a rate that was higher than what my husband and I got. Our last mortgage rate was 2.75. And so they're looking at that thinking, dang, mom and dad, but that

was then, this is now. And so what we told them is, okay, this is how much house you can afford based on your net income. That's the other thing. When you're looking at the total picture, see people only want to focus on the interest rate, but there are other components. So we say, qualify yourself on your net pay. So the bank said at 7%, they could afford X amount. Mama and daddy said, oh, I don't think so. And so they bought a

house where their monthly payment is only about 30% of their take-home pay. So we put all of that in the mixing bowl. And even though the rate is higher than what their parents have, they have a mortgage that is as affordable as the mortgage that the parents had at 2.75. That's why your financial picture has to be a holistic look of everything. So yes, you might be paying 6% or 7%. But

But if you buy a house that you can afford, so you might not be able to buy that house with that big yard and five bedrooms, it might have two and a half and maybe three bathrooms instead of four, you know, that kind of thing. And that's how you make what the rates are today fit

into your budget. And if rates do come down in the future, they can refinance to a lower rate, just like Evan and his family can refinance to a lower rate. Or if they can't, rates stay where they are. Hopefully they made sure that they were in a home that was affordable, that would also allow them to save for retirement and save to send those kids, those twins to college.

Well, let's pause here for a quick break, but still to come, what to watch for in the economy in 2025 with the new presidential administration and new policies on trade, immigration, and more. That's just ahead.

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Returning now to our conversation on the Federal Reserve, interest rates, and how it all relates to the economy. Reid, what data does the Fed examine for signals about where inflation is heading?

They look at all kinds of things. So, you know, one of my favorite lines from Boston Fed President Susan Collins is that she likes to look at a constellation of data when making decisions about interest rate policy. But on the inflation side in particular, you know, they tend to look at, I would say, three main reports. There's one that's based on wholesale inflation, which is called the producer price index. There's one called the consumer price index, which is the release that we got last week.

And then there's their preferred metric, which has quite the jargony name of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, or PCE for short. And essentially, through

looking at a variety of different inflation metrics, they can really parse out or think that they parse out what's happening with inflation in any given month. But what you often see is a focus on what we call the core measure, which, you know, is always something quite interesting to me because they strip out food and energy. And the thought is that in any given month, you may see a spike in eggs like we've seen.

or you may see an increase in gasoline prices like we saw after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But if you take those things out, you can get a better sense of the underlying trend of inflation and where things might be heading, whether things are stalling out or whether things are continuing to improve. And does that data also indicate the main sources of inflation? And if so, what are they right now?

So I think last week's data is a great one to look at. So the Consumer Price Index came out last week. And when we think about the broader picture of inflation this year, it's been this story of declining prices for some goods and what we call stigmatization.

inflation for many key service areas, notably housing. But that recent data has heightened these concerns that progress towards that 2% goal and the progress that we've made in terms of inflation moving lower has maybe stalled out or is certainly slowing a bit. And that's because at the same time that you've seen this

truly glacial cooling and service inflation, you're no longer getting the help of lower goods prices. So in this latest consumer price report out last week, you did finally see some cooling and housing inflation. But even with that step down, so-called shelter prices, which incorporates things like rent as well as hotel prices, accounted for nearly 40% of the monthly increase in consumer prices in the month.

But you also saw prices for other costs Americans regularly face rise as well. So think used car prices, medical care, household furnishings, food. And not only were the costs of groceries themselves higher, you saw that the eggs be higher, as I'm sure many listeners have already noticed in their stores.

But you also saw higher prices for meats and milk and fresh vegetables. So there's still a lot of prices across the economy that are rising month to month that consumers are certainly seeing. Well, we're getting questions from you. Laura says, I have credit card debt. Should I try to pay off or should I consolidate? I almost did but stopped because I thought it would kill my credit rating. I pay my bills on time, but what should I do? Michelle, of course, I'm going to come to you. I think I know what you're going to say, but go ahead.

you know what I'm going to say. I mean, baby pay that credit card debt off and don't, you know, don't worry so much about your credit score right now. In fact, having that debt is actually bringing your credit score down because credit scores look at a whole lot of things. One of which, how much debt you have outstanding. And if she has the typical, uh,

interest rate for credit card debt, we're talking like 20%. So even if you're saving, you are losing because you're saved money. Even if it's in the stock market, it's been doing pretty well. But let's just say you have it in a regular savings account. Even at 5%, you are losing money. And so I always say that if you have credit card debt that you can't pay off every month, you are already in trouble.

And I say this because we look at the minimum payments due on credit cards is so low that it makes you feel like you're doing okay. But if you have a job loss or a disruption in your income, that makes it more difficult for people to even make that minimum payment. And then things go down south from there. And so if you are listening or if you have...

people in your family or friend circle that has credit card debt, please encourage them to do whatever they can to pay it down and pay it off. Now, I don't particularly care for consolidation loans for the most part, because here's what happens. People clear that debt off to a consolidation loan, and then what happens? Oh, I got some room on my credit cards. If you have not changed your behavior...

I'm moving that debt because you don't pay it off. You just move it to another debt instrument. That's what people say. Oh, I paid off my credit card debt because I got a consolidation. Oh, no, you didn't, baby. You put debt from one hand to the other hand and you still have debt. Now, if that debt was because you had some extraordinary thing happen in your life, you lost a job or maybe your child got sick and you had to take off work without pay, things like that. But if it's because you are shopping too much or you're

living above your means, getting a consolidation loan does not solve that problem. And that's why I don't particularly care to recommend that if you have not changed the underlying behavior that got you to the point where you have credit card debt that you can't pay off every month.

We also got this email from Carrie who says, I'm a retired teacher living on Social Security fixed income. I own my home, but my savings have dwindled and am now looking into reverse mortgage as a way to continue covering my living costs. How will the interest rate affect this type of mortgage? Would it be better to try and get a home equity line of credit? What do you think, Michelle?

Well, oh, this is such a hard question. That's a whole show, Jen. So reverse mortgages work. So basically, when you get a reverse mortgage, you don't have a mortgage payment. Like a normal mortgage, you pay every month. With a reverse, you don't. The problem with it, because what I heard in her question was that she would need to continue to use this money on a month-to-month basis. That's not going to solve the problem for her because eventually that money is going to run out.

Reverse mortgages work for some folks. Like you have a major home improvement and you need to pull all your money is kind of tied up in your house. But if you've got a monthly income issue, I don't recommend a reverse mortgage. You may have to look at getting a roommate or maybe downsizing or moving to someplace that's a little less expensive.

costly for you. It will be a band-aid on a long-term problem. And reverse mortgages cost a little bit more. And then some people are concerned that they won't have that money left for their heirs and things like that. I don't worry so much about that. But I do get concerned when people get a reverse mortgage because they have a deficit every month. That money's going to run out at some point. And so the interest rate decision by the Fed really, to your mind, shouldn't play into this decision at all?

That's right. That's when we talked about, remember, the holistic look. And it's so interesting because people are like, oh, I got a 2% mortgage. Listen, I know people who have a 2% or 3% mortgage who still...

shouldn't be in that house. Because even at 2% of a $600,000 or $700,000 mortgage is unaffordable for some people. When those rates were so low, people bought more house than they could afford. And by that, I mean, not necessarily the monthly payments, but when you have so much of your income going to your mortgage, you don't have enough money to save for retirement. You don't have enough money to build up an emergency fund. You don't have enough money to save for to send your kids to college if that's their path. And so you have to look at it

affordability in a holistic way, not just the interest rate. Now, Reid, as we said, the Fed will announce on Wednesday whether it cut its main interest rate. What do financial experts expect them to do?

So the Fed is widely expected to lower interest rates for a Third Street meeting when they meet Wednesday, and they're expected to lower by a quarter of a percentage point. So to kind of put that in perspective, that would leave interest rates a full percentage point lower than they were in September. But more importantly,

important for a lot of investors and financial analysts is the path forward. So one thing that we get at every other meeting from Federal Reserve officials is projections for where they see the path of the economy and the path of rates going forward. And this upcoming meeting is one of those meetings. So we'll get updated looks at where they see interest rates heading next year and the years to follow, as well as expectations for the unemployment rate, economic growth, inflation. And what's

kind of important to keep in mind in terms of what folks are expecting is, you know, in September when there was, you know, thought that the Fed, before President Trump had been elected, before some of these fears about the labor market had ebbed a little bit,

little bit. Policymakers had penciled in four interest rate cuts for next year. Economists are widely expecting them to see fewer interest rate cuts now next year, potentially three, which would mean that we have higher interest rates for longer than we possibly thought.

Michelle, if someone is worried about decisions by the new administration, something like tariffs, for instance, and that impacting what they buy week to week or month to month, how should they prepare for these changes?

Great question. I've been getting this asked quite a bit by readers. So if you were in the market to do, say, a big home improvement project and you are looking to buy goods that are very sensitive to interest rates, especially things that are imported in materials, furniture, things like that, I would say you probably should err on the side of going ahead and buying those items now.

because we don't know what's going to happen, and they may be more costly. Now, I say that with a cautionary tale. Don't let people scare you into buying and doing things before you are ready. If you're in the market, you're ready to do it, great. If you're not and you're thinking, oh, maybe six months or a year, just wait and see.

Maybe it'll cost more. Maybe it won't. But you don't want to put your money out there for something because you might decide that if it costs too much that you won't do the project at all. And that is the best decision. And shame on those retailers who are trying to take advantage of this. Like, oh, buy this now because it's going to be higher. No. My whole theme for this show is look at your finances from a holistic point of view. Don't focus in on one data point, interest rates. Okay?

You know, because that is not going to bode well for you long term. I want to get to a couple of quick listener questions. Janet's emailed. She says she's 68 and partially retired. And she asks, as interest rates go down, so do savings options. Between CDs, more investment in IRAs and bonds, what is the best in this financial environment? Quickly, Michelle, what do you think? Quickly. I know. I'm sorry. Okay.

It's like you don't even know me. No, listen, you need to have short-term money, but you also need to have long-term money. That is my answer. So you can't have all your money in CDs and in savings accounts because guess what? It's not going to keep pace with inflation. And so you have pots of money, and that's how you approach what's happening right now. Okay. Okay.

Last question from Arlene, who says, do interest rates affect whether we should buy or lease a new car? Any distinction there, Michelle? I can say that in like one minute. No, wait, one second. Don't be leasing no car. There you go. There you are. Okay. So, Arlene, that's your answer. Now, Reid, Donald Trump says he wants to have a say on monetary policy as president. The president appoints members to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, but they have these multi-year appointments, as you said, and they don't align with presidential terms.

How much of an effect could the incoming Trump administration have on decision-making at the Fed? So we've heard, you know, Chair Jerome Powell address this head-on when asked at a press conference recently. And, you know, he made clear that he did not feel that the president could demote him from his position. But he also, you know, made clear that the Fed is independent and, you know, policymakers have—

noted time and time again that better decisions are made when a central bank can be independent and that there's broad-based support on the Hill for having that independence. So the thought is that the Federal Reserve will continue to do what they feel they do best, which is make the best decisions for the economy when those decisions arise.

Well, we've got just a minute left here, and I want to hear from both of you what you're watching in the coming months as an indicator of the strength of the economy, whether that's about inflation, the chance of a recession or something else. Michelle?

I would just say be very cautious about holding on to debt. Do the best you can to pay off debt because if the rates pause in terms of lowering them, your debt is going to cost more money. And just look at everything before you make a decision. Don't make it on just one data point. And I get concerned when people only look at interest rates because you have to always look at affordability short-term and long-term. Reid?

And I'd say inflation. You know, there are signs that some of that progress has stalled a bit. And some of the policies that the incoming Trump administration has proposed, notably tariffs, risk putting upward pressure on inflation, given that we do typically see businesses react to tariffs in the form of higher prices for consumers. So kind of how those tariffs are rolled out, what they ultimately looked like,

how other countries react to those tariffs could all have notable impacts on the economy and the inflation picture and ultimately what the Federal Reserve decides to do. We've been with Reed Pickard. She's Federal Reserve and U.S. Economy Editor for Bloomberg News in Washington, D.C., and Michelle Singletary, a personal finance columnist at The Washington Post and author of What to Do with Your Money When Crisis Hits, A Survival Guide. Thanks to you both.

Remember, text is the fastest way to connect with us. Find out how to sign up to our text service under the Talk to 1A tab at the1a.org. Today's producer was Michael Folero. This program comes to you from WAMU, part of American University in Washington, distributed by NPR. I'm Jen White. Thanks for listening. And we'll talk again tomorrow. This is 1A.

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