cover of episode What Lower Interest Rates Mean For The Economy

What Lower Interest Rates Mean For The Economy

2024/12/17
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1A
People
M
Michelle Singletary
R
Reed Pickard
R
Rhea
Topics
Jerome Powell: 美联储目前无需急于降息，因为经济强劲，可以谨慎决策。 Rhea: 美联储的职责是维护价格稳定和充分就业，所有决策都围绕这两个目标。 Reed Pickard: 联邦基金利率影响着美国人的各种借贷成本，降息会刺激经济增长和就业，但也会带来通货膨胀的风险。 Michelle Singletary: 降息会迅速影响到可调整利率的项目，例如：可调整利率抵押贷款、房屋净值信用额度和信用卡利率。但抵押贷款利率对利率变化的反应较慢，仍然很高；房屋买卖价格和租金对利率变化的反应也较慢。消费者应该综合考虑各种因素，包括收入、支出和长期财务规划，而不是仅仅关注利率。建议优先偿还信用卡债务，而不是考虑债务整合。对于每月收入不足以支付生活费用的退休人员来说，反向抵押贷款并非理想的解决方案。投资者应该根据自身情况配置短期和长期投资，而不是只依赖单一类型的投资产品。不建议租赁汽车。 Reed Pickard: 美联储通过观察各种数据来判断通货膨胀走向，包括生产者物价指数、消费者物价指数和个人消费支出价格指数等。今年的通货膨胀呈现出商品价格下降和服务价格上涨的态势，尤其以住房成本上涨最为显著。市场普遍预期美联储将在本周会议上再次降息，但未来降息次数可能少于预期。新政府的政策（例如关税）可能会对通货膨胀产生影响。 Michelle Singletary: 如果担心新政府的政策（例如关税）会影响商品价格，应该根据自身情况决定是否提前购买相关商品。应该谨慎对待债务，并综合考虑各种因素，做出理性的财务决策。未来几个月，通货膨胀率将是衡量经济强劲程度的重要指标

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the Federal Reserve's main goal?

The Federal Reserve's primary goals are to maintain price stability and achieve full employment, ensuring low unemployment without sparking inflation.

How does the federal funds rate impact everyday Americans?

The federal funds rate indirectly affects borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards, influencing consumer spending and business investments.

Which parts of the economy respond quickly to interest rate cuts?

Adjustable-rate mortgages, credit cards, and savings accounts tend to respond quickly to changes in interest rates.

What happened in the consumer economy after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2023?

Car prices became slightly more affordable, and mortgage rates fluctuated, but they remained higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Why are credit card rates a concern for consumers?

Credit card rates are currently very high, averaging over 20%, making it expensive for consumers to carry debt from month to month.

What data does the Federal Reserve examine to gauge inflation?

The Fed looks at the producer price index, consumer price index, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) to track inflation trends.

What are the main sources of inflation currently?

Housing costs, used car prices, medical care, and food prices are key contributors to inflation, with housing accounting for nearly 40% of the monthly increase in consumer prices.

What advice does Michelle Singletary give to someone with credit card debt?

Michelle advises paying off credit card debt as quickly as possible, as carrying high-interest debt can be financially detrimental.

What is Michelle Singletary's view on reverse mortgages?

Michelle cautions against reverse mortgages for those relying on them to cover monthly expenses, as the funds will eventually run out.

What is expected from the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision?

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point, marking the third such cut this year.

Shownotes Transcript

The Federal Reserve has begun cutting interest rates after two years of rate hikes to the highest levels in decades.It meets again this week to decide whether to cut them again, or keep them as is.High interest rates made the cost of borrowing high, meaning that car loans, credit card debt, and mortgages cost exponentially more than before the pandemic.We discuss how the Fed's decision to lower rates affects the economy. Want to support 1A? Give to your local public radio station) and subscribe to this podcast. Have questions? Connect) with us. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a).Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)