Deep Dive
Why is war with China increasingly being treated as a serious prospect in Washington and the Pentagon?
The shift stems from the breakdown of the perception that the economic relationship between the U.S. and China was mutually beneficial. It is now seen as a zero-sum competition where the U.S. must contain China to maintain its primacy. Additionally, China's military power has grown as a share of its GDP, even without increased spending, due to rapid economic growth.
How successful has the Biden administration been in constructing regional alliances against China?
The Biden administration has made significant efforts in alliance-building, particularly through organizations like the Quad and AUKUS. However, they face constraints due to the U.S. Congress's reluctance to fund large-scale economic initiatives that could sustain these alliances. The focus is primarily on military and tech sectors, with less emphasis on economic support.
Why do decisions by the Chinese Communist Party leadership on climate policy dwarf the U.S. presidential election in significance?
China's decisions on climate policy are more significant because China is the world's largest emitter, accounting for 30% of global emissions. In contrast, U.S. emissions are on a downward trend and are projected to account for only 5% of global emissions over the next 80 years. China's commitment to neutrality by 2060 and its active role in the clean energy revolution have a greater impact on global climate outcomes.
Why does Adam Tooze disagree with the view that China's economic problems are primarily a result of increasing authoritarianism?
Adam Tooze argues that China's economic problems are more accurately attributed to overinvestment and diminishing returns, rather than increasing authoritarianism. The CCP's efforts to stop the housing boom and shift towards a green energy transition are seen as strategic decisions to manage long-term growth and sustainability, rather than purely political moves.
Why is the narrative around China's zero-COVID strategy considered misleading by Adam Tooze?
The narrative that China's zero-COVID strategy was consistently repressive and ineffective is misleading. Initially, China successfully contained the virus with low mortality rates. The strategy of dynamic optimization, which aimed to minimize lockdowns, worked until the Shanghai lockdown in 2022, which was perceived as cripplingly capricious and ineffective. This strategy, however, did not undermine the broader success in managing the pandemic in its early stages.
Why does Adam Tooze argue that China's climate policy is crucial for the global environment?
China's climate policy is crucial because it is the largest emitter of CO2, accounting for 30% of global emissions. Unlike the U.S. and Europe, which are on a downward emissions trend, China must fundamentally alter its trajectory, moving from significant annual emission increases to a sharp decarbonization. Xi Jinping's commitment to neutrality by 2060 and China's actions in clean energy, such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, make it a key player in global climate efforts.
Why is the West often unaware of China's significant role in the global climate crisis?
The West tends to view the climate crisis through a Western-centric lens, often attributing it to capitalism without recognizing China's unique development model. China's rapid urbanization and industrialization, driven by a mixed economy with strong state involvement, have significantly contributed to global emissions. While market integration played a role, the state's planned energy policies, such as doubling coal output, were crucial in driving this growth.
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