cover of episode It's the inflation, stupid w/ James Meadway

It's the inflation, stupid w/ James Meadway

2024/11/10
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Alex Doherty: 本期节目讨论了2024年美国大选民主党失利的原因,特别是通货膨胀对选举结果的影响。嘉宾James Meadway认为,通货膨胀是导致民主党失利的最重要因素,因为主流经济学对通货膨胀的应对措施无效,导致民众生活水平下降,而特朗普则成功地利用了这一点。 Alex Doherty还指出,主流经济学家认为政府可以通过降低通货膨胀率来获得奖励,但这忽略了民众对物价上涨的记忆和感受。通货膨胀数据未能准确反映民众的真实生活状况,官方数据与民众的实际感受存在脱节。 此外,Alex Doherty还讨论了民主党在加沙问题上的立场,以及这是否对选举结果产生了影响。 James Meadway: 我认为通货膨胀是特朗普获胜最重要的因素。主流经济学对通货膨胀的应对措施是提高利率,但这并没有解决问题,反而导致民众生活水平下降。通货膨胀数据未能反映民众的真实感受,因为这些数据包含许多普通民众并不关心的东西,而民众真正关心的是生活必需品的价格上涨。 特朗普成功地利用了这一点,他反复强调民众的生活水平是否有所改善,并将其与自身的政绩联系起来。相比之下,民主党未能有效应对通货膨胀,这削弱了他们在经济问题上的论述。 此外,我还谈到了非常规的应对通货膨胀措施,例如西班牙的能源价格管控。这些措施在实践中证明是有效的,而主流经济学则对此持否定态度。 关于民主党在加沙问题上的立场,我认为如果哈里斯在加沙问题上采取不同的立场,可能会改变选举结果。民主党在加沙问题上的立场与民众的感受脱节,这进一步加剧了他们的困境。 最后,我还讨论了民主党内部结构性问题,以及为什么他们难以改变其在经济和外交政策上的立场。民主党既是全球化新自由主义资本主义的主流政党,又是传统意义上的工人阶级政党,这种矛盾的定位使得他们难以在选举中获得成功。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did Kamala Harris lose the election decisively?

Kamala Harris lost the election primarily due to high inflation, which significantly impacted living standards across various demographics. The failure to adopt effective measures against inflation, such as price controls, and the reliance on increasing interest rates, which did little to help ordinary Americans, undermined the Democrats' economic narrative.

Why did Donald Trump perform well among young white men in the 2024 election?

Donald Trump's appeal to young white men is rooted in their feelings of economic insecurity, loneliness, and alienation. The right has effectively tapped into these emotions, offering a sense of belonging and immediate solutions, even if those solutions are often based on harmful ideologies like sexism and racism.

Why did the economic data fail to capture the real-life experiences of Americans under the Biden administration?

The economic data, such as GDP growth and headline inflation rates, failed to capture the real-life experiences of Americans because it does not accurately reflect the prices of essential goods like food, energy, and housing. The basket of goods used to calculate inflation includes items that many people, especially those with lower incomes, do not frequently purchase.

Why does James Meadway blame mainstream economics for the Democrats' defeat?

James Meadway blames mainstream economics for the Democrats' defeat because the profession's response to inflation was ineffective and out of touch with ordinary people's experiences. The focus on raising interest rates did little to address the root causes of inflation, such as supply-side issues and profiteering, and instead made life harder for most Americans.

Why did the Kamala Harris campaign's focus on price gouging backfire?

The Kamala Harris campaign's focus on price gouging backfired because the mainstream economic and media response was to criticize and undermine these proposals. This made the campaign appear indecisive and weak, failing to offer concrete solutions to the economic challenges faced by voters.

Why did the Democrats' stance on the Gaza conflict potentially impact the election results?

The Democrats' support for Israel's actions in Gaza, particularly the ongoing conflict, likely depressed turnout among certain demographics, especially in swing states like Wisconsin and Michigan. This stance made the party appear morally inconsistent and unprincipled, further alienating voters who were already disillusioned with the economy.

Why does James Meadway argue that the Democrats' response to inflation is a disaster?

James Meadway argues that the Democrats' response to inflation is a disaster because it protects the interests of the wealthy by making borrowing more expensive and potentially increasing unemployment, rather than addressing the immediate needs of ordinary people. This approach exacerbates economic inequality and fails to mitigate the impact of rising prices on essential goods.

What are some unconventional responses to inflation that could have been more effective?

Unconventional responses to inflation, such as price controls on essential goods, have been shown to work in countries like Spain and Switzerland. These measures can protect the most vulnerable from price surges and reduce the overall impact of inflation, especially when combined with targeted subsidies and support for essential services.

Why does James Meadway believe there is continuity between the Trump and Biden administrations on foreign policy?

James Meadway believes there is continuity between the Trump and Biden administrations on foreign policy because both have used tariffs and trade as instruments of power. Trump is likely to continue this approach, using the US's economic clout to negotiate favorable terms, while also potentially expanding domestic support for industries affected by tariffs.

Why does James Meadway think the left's approach to the climate crisis is flawed?

James Meadway thinks the left's approach to the climate crisis is flawed because it often focuses on manufacturing jobs and large infrastructure projects, which do not address the immediate economic and social impacts of climate change. Instead, the left should focus on the service sector, reducing working hours, and adapting to the realities of a changing climate.

Chapters
This chapter analyzes the impact of inflation on the 2024 US election results, focusing on the universal experience of rising prices and how it affected voters across different demographics. The ineffectiveness of mainstream economic responses to inflation is also discussed.
  • Inflation as the most significant factor in Trump's victory
  • Universal impact of rising prices across demographics
  • Ineffectiveness of mainstream economics' response to inflation (raising interest rates)
  • Trump's simple yet powerful message: 'Are you better off now than you were four years ago?'

Shownotes Transcript

Today we're publishing a crossover episode with our friends at the Macrodose podcast, hosted by James Meadway. In the episode talk about the economics of Donald Trump's election victory and why James lays much of the blame for Kamala Harris' defeat at the door of mainstream economics. We also talked about why Donald Trump did so well amongst young white men, and about what role the Democrats' enabling of the Gaza genocide had in the election results.

You can get more excellent economic analysis from James at the Macrodose podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/c/Macrodose