cover of episode Excerpt - Richard Seymour responds to listener's questions (part 2)

Excerpt - Richard Seymour responds to listener's questions (part 2)

2024/10/27
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Richard Seymour:以色列目前的军事行动并非旨在取得决定性胜利,而更可能是一种打破军事僵局的策略。这反映了内塔尼亚胡政府的行动模式,即通过制造新的危机来应对当前的僵局。有证据表明,以色列士兵士气低落,这与缺乏明确的战略有关。士兵们不得不重复执行任务,例如在贾巴利亚地区,这表明以色列未能建立新的秩序。 此外,以色列军队内部存在一种日益增长的“灰色拒绝”现象,士兵们在不公开反对的情况下拒绝执行任务,这可能导致指挥危机。军队内部也存在分歧,一部分士兵是极端分子,希望彻底消灭哈马斯,而另一部分士兵则参与度较低,更容易受到士气低落的影响。因此,以色列的军事行动并非完全成功,其内部矛盾和战略缺陷可能导致军队内部瓦解。

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I would caution against any Israeli triumphalism at this point because it is possible to read this escalation and the turn to Lebanon recently as an attempt to break the military impasse, to respond to stalemate by moving on to more productive crises. That would be the pattern of the Netanyahu administration. There is some evidence of exhaustion among Israeli troops

There was a telling detail in a recent report. They described how soldiers were demoralized by having to go back and pass by the same area over and over again. Jabaliya was one example. Now that's because they don't have a strategy. Because once you clear an area, if Hamas then sets themselves up in it after you leave, it's because you haven't really got any idea of what new order you want to create.

In general, there appears to be a growing form of what they call grey refusal, which is where soldiers basically beg off missions without outing themselves as conscientious objectors and facing potential legal sanction. Well, the question is, at what point does that lend itself to a crisis of command?

In an army that's already somewhat fractious and divided between, you know, the hardcore crusaders who want to finish the job as far as genocide is concerned. And those whose involvement is probably a bit less zealous and who are more susceptible to a kind of collapse. So it's not all triumph for Israel.

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