cover of episode A crisis in credibility - Labour's economic programme

A crisis in credibility - Labour's economic programme

2025/1/11
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@Will Davies : 我认为英国经济面临的危机已经严重到无法忽视的地步。自2008年金融危机以来，英国经济相对于美国和欧元区而言，表现显著恶化，人均GDP停滞不前，主要依靠移民来维持GDP增长。这种停滞并非暂时性问题，除非采取更大胆的政策，否则可能无限期持续。这使得政府在公共服务支出方面面临巨大压力，需要在增税和削减其他支出之间做出艰难选择。 特拉斯政府虽然经济政策失败，但其激进的“休克疗法”体现出对经济形势严重性的某种认识。他们试图通过激进的干预来刺激英国资本主义的活力，摆脱经济停滞，但其方法是错误的，最终以失败告终。 工党提出的经济计划旨在通过现代化英国经济的科技和法律基础来实现经济增长，这与拜登政府的政策有一定相似之处。他们试图通过投资基础设施建设，创造更有利于资本投资的环境。然而，这种“现代供给侧经济学”也受到了批评，被指责为“华尔街共识”，通过“去风险化”策略，保证了资产管理公司的盈利，并利用公共资本吸引私人投资，这可能导致纳税人承担风险，而私人部门获得回报。 工党的计划可能需要很长时间才能产生效果，这在政治上存在风险。他们最初的计划是将经济政策的负面影响放在第一任期内，并在未来获得政治回报，但目前的经济形势使得这一计划面临挑战。 尽管工党政府致力于维护劳工权利，但如果经济状况恶化，可能会面临压力，被迫削弱劳工权利。他们计划改革规划和建设体系，以减少阻碍投资的障碍，并采取更具体的产业政策，支持特定行业的增长。 与美国相比，英国在国际安全方面的地位和作用存在巨大差异，这使得工党在经济政策中难以有效地利用国家安全因素。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

What is the current state of the UK economy according to Will Davies?

The UK economy has experienced stagnant GDP per capita over the last 15 years, accompanied by wage stagnation. GDP growth has largely been driven by immigration, with real GDP per capita growing only by 6% since the global financial crisis, compared to 20% in the US. Brexit has further exacerbated trade issues, particularly in manufacturing, leading to a prolonged period of economic stagnation.

Why does Will Davies believe the UK economy requires more radical measures now?

The UK economy faces dire conditions due to COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and the lasting effects of austerity. The financial services sector can no longer mask these deep structural problems. High immigration has temporarily boosted GDP, but per capita prosperity remains stagnant. The situation demands bold policy interventions to address low productivity, wage stagnation, and overstretched public services like the NHS and social care.

How does the UK's economic performance compare to the US since the global financial crisis?

Since the global financial crisis, the UK's real GDP per capita has grown by only 6%, while the US has seen a 20% increase. This discrepancy highlights the UK's relative economic decline, with stagnant wages and low productivity growth. Immigration has been a key driver of aggregate GDP growth, masking deeper issues in per capita prosperity.

What is the Labour Party's economic strategy to address the UK's productivity gap?

Labour's strategy focuses on modernizing the UK's economic foundations, including transport hubs, energy supply, and planning rules. This approach, akin to upgrading a computer operating system, aligns with modern supply-side economics championed by Janet Yellen and the Biden administration. It involves public investment to catalyze private sector growth, particularly in infrastructure and high-productivity sectors.

What is the critique of Labour's modern supply-side economics approach?

Critics, such as Daniela Gabor, argue that Labour's approach, dubbed the 'Wall Street consensus,' prioritizes the interests of financial asset managers like BlackRock. The state guarantees profitability for private investors through tax breaks and de-risking, effectively shifting risk to taxpayers while privatizing returns. This model has been criticized for reinforcing elite financial interests rather than addressing broader economic inequalities.

How does Will Davies assess the potential impact of Labour's economic policies?

Davies suggests that even if Labour's policies succeed, their benefits may take over a decade to materialize, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility. This long timeline poses political risks, given the current volatility and public impatience. Labour may front-load austerity measures in their first term, hoping to reap electoral rewards from economic improvements later, but this strategy could backfire if growth remains sluggish.

What parallels does Will Davies draw between the UK Labour Party and the US Democrats?

Davies draws parallels between Labour's economic strategy and the Biden administration's modern supply-side economics. Both emphasize public investment to catalyze private sector growth. However, the US has also weaponized economic policy for national security, prioritizing domestic industrial production over global trade. Labour, in contrast, focuses more narrowly on growth, lacking the US's geopolitical leverage.

What challenges does the UK face in balancing economic growth and national security?

The UK faces challenges in balancing economic growth with national security, particularly in a volatile global environment. Unlike the US, the UK cannot afford to antagonize major trade partners like China. Defence spending and industrial policy may need to align more closely, potentially focusing on sectors like arms manufacturing, where the UK has competitive advantages.

Chapters
This chapter explores the depth and duration of the UK's economic challenges, particularly the stagnant GDP per capita and wage stagnation since the 2008 financial crisis. It contrasts the UK's economic performance with that of the US and discusses the urgency for more radical policy measures.
  • UK's real GDP per capita grew only by 6% since 2008, compared to 20% in the US.
  • Stagnant GDP per capita manifested in wage stagnation.
  • High levels of immigration papered over the stagnation.
  • Current economic challenges require bolder policy programs.
  • Raising taxes or engaging in zero-sum games are the only options to fund increased social spending.

Shownotes Transcript

sociologist and political economist Will Davies. We spoke about his recent article in the London Review of Books, titled 'A Crisis in Credibility: Labour’s Conundrum'. We discussed the nature of the economic agenda that Labour has adopted in its attempt to break out of the low-growth and low productivity rates that have characterised the UK economy in recent years. We chatted about the extent to which the Starmer-Reeves project emulates and diverges from the Biden administration's economic policies, and the left de-risking critique of so-called 'modern supply side economics'.