EP76: US Oil, LNG, and Carbon Capture: Inside the Next Energy Czar’s Bold Energy Vision-Doug Burgum
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Summary: In this episode, we explore the potential candidacy of North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as the "energy czar" for the United States under a future administration. Burgum advocates for a balanced approach to energy policy, combining support for traditional energy sources, particularly oil and gas, with progressive environmental goals. He is notably pushing for carbon neutrality in North Dakota by 2030, relying on carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. We highlight the increasing strain on the U.S. energy grid due to rising domestic demands and global market shifts, and Burgum’s potential role in navigating this complex landscape while promoting both economic growth and sustainability. Questions to consider as you read/listen: What are the key challenges and opportunities facing the U.S. energy sector? How does Governor Burgum's energy policy address the challenges and opportunities facing the U.S.? What are the potential implications of Doug Burgum's energy policies for the U.S. economy and environment?

Long format:  US Oil, LNG, and Carbon Capture: Inside the Next Energy Czar’s Bold Energy Vision-Doug Burgum By Justin James McShane TL;DR: President-elect Trump is considering North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum as “energy czar.” Burgum combines support for traditional energy with progressive environmental goals, aiming to make North Dakota carbon-neutral by 2030 using carbon capture and storage (CCS). The U.S. energy sector is strong and self-sufficient, with record oil and LNG exports, but rising domestic energy demands from manufacturing, infrastructure projects, and tech growth are straining the grid. Burgum’s balanced approach could help the U.S. continue its energy independence while addressing sustainability and economic growth. Introduction: As President-elect Trump considers North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum for a potential role as “energy czar,” Burgum’s unique blend of traditional energy support and progressive environmental policies make him an intriguing choice for shaping America’s energy future. The United States, a global leader in energy production and exports, faces a period of extraordinary opportunity and challenges in the energy sector. With a robust oil, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export infrastructure, the U.S. is well-positioned for continued growth. However, rising domestic energy demands, global market shifts, and ambitious economic goals, including semiconductor production and reshoring manufacturing, are pushing the energy grid to its limits. As the country stands at the precipice of unprecedented energy transformation, Burgum’s policies and perspectives on balancing fossil fuel reliance with carbon neutrality are poised to play a significant role in addressing these demands while striving for sustainable progress. INFORMATION President-elect Trump is looking toward North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R) as a potential “energy czar. Who is he? What does he believe in? The USA is in a very important period where energy policy is going to vital. This incoming administration has inherited a very strong US energy sector. The US has been a net exporter of petroleum since 2020. In 2023, the US exported 1.64 million barrels of petroleum per day more than it imported. The United States is a net crude refinery product exporter and a large one at that. Further, the US is the world’s biggest LNG exporter. The US became the world's leading LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar. In 2023, the US exported an average of 11.9 billion cubic feet of LNG per day, which was a 12% increase from 2022. The US continued to be the world's largest LNG exporter in 2024, shipping 56.9 million metric tons of LNG in the first eight months. However, export prices dropped by more than 25% from the first half of 2023, which led to a $4 billion drop in export revenues. The US is projected to double its LNG exports by the end of the decade as new export facilities are built along the US coastline. The US has an estimated 1.66 trillion barrels of technically recoverable oil resources. That’s enough oil for 227 years. If the oil is devoted exclusively to gasoline production, it is enough gasoline to fuel the transportation sector for 539 years at 2023 usage levels, the report stated. Total technically recoverable resources of natural gas in the U.S. amount to 4.03 quadrillion cubic feet, according to the report, which stated that, at the current consumption rate, that’s enough natural gas for the next 130 years. The 4.03 quadrillion cubic feet figure is a 47 percent increase in the estimate of technically recoverable natural gas since IER’s 2011 report, the study highlighted. The report also pointed out that the U.S. has over 65 quadrillion cubic feet of in place natural gas resources. Again, we are a net exporter. US shale oil is light and sweet, while a lot of oil coming from OPEC is medium or heavy, and often sour. This is due to the nature of result of fracking as it not just recovering blobs of pools of oil but rather in simplistic terms out of the porous rocks. It is thought that because the shale oil is “younger” than the pooled oil that it has less contamination (sulfur). Why does this matter? Until recently, US refineries were set up to process the dirtier more contaminated Middle East sour oil almost exclusively. As a product of legacy we do still import sour oil. However, we are in a pretty mad race to retool our domestic refineries to sweet. Sweet (API value less than 40 and sulfur less than 0.5%, really hydrogen sulfide (H2S) gas) is easier, less costly and less energy intensive to refine. So we are all over that. An abundant sweet source with sweet refineries being retooled or added. Look out for US energy. Sounds great right? It is but…. We have a totally unprepared energy grid for what comes next. We are in an unprecedented time of an exploding demand for energy. We are in a period of hyper growth. Our economy is humming. Thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act, we are building out and replacing infrastructure unlike any other time in history. We are also reshoring our manufacturing and industrial capacities at an accelerated rate. The deglobalization phenomenon and decoupling and shortening of supply chains with its building of manufacturing and industrial plants costs a lot of energy. Plus, we have declared a policy intent to win the Asians semiconductor war. AI and semiconductor and related manufacturing and use takes more energy than you can imagine. These demands are all coming to a head. And a planned and careful approach is needed if we want to continue our quality of life, the growth of our economy, reshoring and also AI and semiconductor ambitions. Doug Burgum’s energy policies and thoughts He stands out fairly uniquely among Republican leaders with his  carbon neutral stance. In 2021, he signed legislation creating a Clean Sustainable Energy Fund to support low-emission technology projects. He set an ambitious goal to make North Dakota carbon-neutral by 2030. This vision, announced in 2021, aims to balance environmental responsibility with the state’s economic reliance on fossil fuels. His approach leverages carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, which captures carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel operations and stores them underground. By doing so, Burgum hopes to reduce carbon emissions without compromising North Dakota’s thriving oil and gas sector, particularly in the Bakken region. Burgum’s carbon-neutrality goal has generated significant private-sector interest, sparking a reported $25 billion in investments from energy companies eager to capitalize on CCS and other environmentally focused technologies. In remarks at the North Dakota Petroleum Council’s annual meeting, Burgum highlighted these investments as proof that economic growth and environmental responsibility can coexist. Furthermore, he supports using captured carbon dioxide in enhanced oil recovery, a process that not only reduces emissions but also boosts oil production by injecting CO2 into underground reservoirs. Agriculture also plays a crucial role in Burgum’s carbon-neutral strategy. He advocates for farming practices that sequester carbon in the soil, adding another layer to his comprehensive approach to climate and energy policy. North Dakota’s expansive agricultural lands offer a unique opportunity for carbon storage, reinforcing his commitment to sustainability across multiple sectors. Burgum is a strong supporter of traditional energy infrastructure, like the Dakota Access Pipeline, which he believes is vital for the state’s economic health and energy independence. He has frequently emphasized that energy independence is not only an economic priority but also a matter of national security. In his view, relying on domestic oil and gas production shields the U.S. from volatile global energy markets and strengthens its geopolitical standing. In addition, Burgum is a vocal critic of federal policies that he sees as overly restrictive for the fossil fuel industry. He has criticized the Biden administration’s policies, such as subsidies for electric vehicles and regulations phasing out gas stoves in certain new housing. He argues that these initiatives threaten consumer choice and undercut the economic potential of liquid fuels. Instead, Burgum supports opening federal lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management to increase domestic energy production, including oil, gas, and rare earth metals essential for various industries. Burgum’s approach reflects his belief that carbon neutrality and energy sector growth can coexist, using advanced technology and smart policies to support both goals. By fostering a favorable regulatory environment and encouraging innovation, he positions North Dakota as a model for how traditional energy industries can adapt and contribute to environmental solutions, all while ensuring economic growth and energy security. Conclusion: In navigating the complexities of the U.S. energy landscape, Doug Burgum’s vision underscores a commitment to both economic growth and environmental responsibility. His approach, combining advanced technologies like carbon capture and a favorable regulatory environment for traditional energy, could help shape a new model for sustainable development. As the U.S. aims to maintain its energy independence, support burgeoning industries, and meet increasing power demands, a thoughtful strategy led by individuals who understand both fossil fuels and clean energy innovation will be vital. Burgum’s potential leadership as energy czar offers a pathway for the U.S. to strengthen its global energy standing while supporting national security and economic resilience, aligning with the country’s drive for both stability and innovation in this crucial era. Sources https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4981850-trump-considering-burgum-for-energy-czar/) https://www.ft.com/content/6c390cc1-f5b8-4096-a361-c53d8145b85a) https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2024-11-08/trump-considering-doug-burgum-as-new-energy-tsar-to-slash-regulations-ft-reports) https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/north-dakota/articles/2023-03-07/burgum-says-every-north-dakotan-feels-oil-and-gas-impact) https://bismarcktribune.com/mandannews/local-news/burgum-posts-video-message-about-dapl/article_89fe54a0-7760-510b-9ba8-25b4f646da4e.html) https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/10/19/doug-burgum-new-hampshire-addiction-climate-change/71200204007/) https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/) https://bismarcktribune.com/news/state-and-regional/burgum-touts-goal-to-make-north-dakota-carbon-neutral-by-2030/article_35efd7f5-8633-536a-becf-7ea9a7b11c37.html) https://www.willistonherald.com/news/oil_and_energy/burgum-net-neutral-goal-set-off-25-billion-cascade-of-interest-in-north-dakota/article_d2671f8c-1cb0-11ec-afb0-53512052e8d2.html) https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6#:~:text=The%20resulting%20total%20net%20petroleum%20imports%20(imports,Canada%2C%20Mexico%2C%20Saudi%20Arabia%2C%20Iraq%2C%20and%20Brazil Get full access to GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack at geopoliticsunplugged.substack.com/subscribe)