EP44: The Assent of Türkiye Cumhuriyeti (Turkey)?
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Summary: In this episode, we examine Türkiye’s evolving military capabilities, particularly its naval and air forces. The sources discuss Türkiye’s development of new fighter jets and submarines, its ambitions to become a major naval power, and its recent decision to acquire a new domestically designed and manufactured aircraft carrier. We also discuss Türkiye’s current economic and political climate, highlighting factors that influence its military growth. We provide insight into Türkiye’s military modernization, focusing on its naval and air forces, and their implications for the region. Questions to consider as you read/listen:

1. What is the current state of Türkiye’s  military modernization efforts, particularly concerning its naval and air capabilities?
2. How does Türkiye’s domestic population growth and demographic trends impact its national security posture and regional ambitions?
3. What are the major economic and political challenges facing Türkiye and how do these factors influence its military development and foreign policy decisions? Long format: The Assent of Türkiye Cumhuriyeti (Turkey)? With the news released on Saturday, October 26, 2024 that Türkiye is now developing its own fifth-generation stealth fighter, the TAI Kaan (also known as TF or MMU), aiming to rival advanced aircraft like the F-35, it makes sense to look at Türkiye again and see where it is militarily, demographically and finally economically. TL;DR: Türkiye's Military, Economic, and Demographic Overview Military: Türkiye, the second-largest NATO military, has advanced its defense industry significantly, highlighted by its development of the TAI Kaan stealth fighter. The air force ranks 9th globally, emphasizing unmanned drones and airspace defense. Its navy is ranked 10th, with a substantial submarine fleet and an aircraft carrier, and aims to transition to blue-water capability. The Turkish Army, with 401,500 personnel, operates globally and is modernizing its tank and artillery assets. Türkiye also boasts a highly regarded Special Forces unit. Demographics: Türkiye’s fertility rate (1.98) is below the replacement rate but higher than many developed countries, with a population median age of 34. It is in far better shape than a lot of countries. Economy: Türkiye’s $1.024 trillion economy is the 17th largest worldwide. While inflation and currency devaluation are concerns, the country’s strategic location, young workforce, and diversified economy support steady growth, though foreign investment and productivity challenges persist. MILITARY Türkiye has come a long way in a short amount of time in terms of its military capabilities and its military industrial complex. Here are some updated facts to consider. Türkiye is the second largest military in NATO, behind the United States. Türkiye has a large land force, with significant armored capabilities, alongside a capable air force and naval fleet. Türkiye has developed extensive experience in recent conflicts like the Syrian Civil War and operations in Libya. It is no longer a virgin in terms of actual operation in combat spaces. Türkiye has a growing capability to produce advanced weapons systems, including drones, significantly enhancing their military strength.

TURKISH AIR FORCE Türkiye's air force is ranked ninth in the world, according to a 2023 list from Global Firepower. The Turkish Air Force has 34,600 personnel (2024) Turkish Air Force features: 607 aircraft including 230 F16s (they were removed from the F35 program and no operational models in inventory),  4 Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft 7 Boeing KC-135R Stratotankers (refuelers),  ordered a total of ten A400M Atlas aircraft heavy military transport aircraft, and  the strength of their Air Force is their top tier unmanned aerial vehicles including the world’s most advanced fully autonomous AI powered Hunter-killer drone the STM Kargu-2. 

The key operational characteristics of the Turkish Air Force include:  a significant presence in NATO operations,  a strong focus on air defense of Turkish airspace, and participation in international exercises

All of this leads many to conclude that Türkiye is one of the largest combat aircraft fleets within NATO, with a considerable ability to engage in international operations and missions across continents. Türkiye even has 3 modern reconnaissance satellites in space with high resolution optics. Türkiye anti aircraft anti missile capabilities are multi-layered, experienced and evolved. Türkiye has a variety of anti-aircraft and anti-missile capabilities, including:  SİPER which is a long-range surface-to-air missile (SAM) system that can defend against aircraft, cruise missiles, air-to-ground missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).  ATILGAN PMSS which is a pedestal mounted air defense system that has been used by the Turkish Land Forces for over a decade.  HISAR which is a medium-altitude air defense system that can detect, track, identify, and fire on targets such as fighter aircraft, attack helicopters, cruise missiles, and UAVs.  HISAR-A which is a low-altitude air defense system designed to defend against aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles, and UAVs SUNGUR which is an air defense missile system with a high explosive, semi armor piercing warhead.  KORKUT which is a system with cannons that can fire 35×228 mm ammunitions, including smart ammunition that ejects tungsten pellets at a predetermined distance.  Levent which is a naval air defense system that uses modernized AIM-92 missiles.  Kara Atmaca which is a surface-to-surface missile system that has successfully hit targets at long range.  Under contract to produce Chinese FD-2000 long range missiles. They have bought S-400 missile systems from Russia.

TURKISH NAVY Türkiye is a fourth tier navy. It is not a blue water navy, but it is certainly coming along towards making that leap into the third tier and making it a blue water navy. The World Directory of Modern Military Warships (WDMMW) ranked Türkiye's navy 10th in the most recent global assessment. Here are some facts and figures: The Turkish navy has 45,000 active personnel and 55,000 reserve personnel The Turkish Navy has a large fleet of ships, including the biggest submarine fleet in the region. The Turkish Navy also has a variety of ships, including frigates and corvettes, and 60 maritime aircraft. Turkey's Navy and Coast Guard operate more than 300 ships. Türkiye has a 12-piece submarine fleet. They are all attack style submarines.  They have one amphibious assault ship, 17 frigates, 10 corvettes , 26 offshore patrol craft, 18 fast attack craft, and many more including unmanned surface vehicles. Plans of a guided missile destroyer  Türkiye has one aircraft carrier (TCG Anadolu) in service. The TCG Anadolu can accommodate helicopters, including the domestically produced T129 ATAK, and AH-1W Super Cobra attack helicopters and SH-70B utility helicopters. It also launches USVs. They have plans to build domestically another aircraft carrier. In February 2024, the Ministry of National Defense shared photos of the design for Turkey's future aircraft carrier. They also have more than 2,800 older M48 Pattons. TURKISH ARMY The Turkish Army has 401,500 members. The Turkish Army has a global footprint that includes military operations in northern Iraq and northern Syria, deployments in northern Cyprus, and exercises in the Mediterranean, Aegean, and Black Seas. At present, the primary main battle tanks of the Turkish Army are the Leopard 2A4 and the M60T. There are also around 400 Leopard 1 and 750 M60 Patton variants in service. They are on a building/spending spree to update and enhance their armor capabilities including South Korean K2 Blank Panther battle tanks. They have a domestically designed and produced main battle tank called the Altay. It has 2 current deployed with 1000 planned. They have well over 800 modern self-propelled artillery pieces as well as nearly 1000 towed artillery pieces. They have around 300 rocket artillery pieces. They also have a cadre of unmanned ground vehicles either on station or in development or pending delivery. Türkiye has six months of compulsory military service. TURKISH SPECIAL FORCES The Turkish Special Forces, officially called the "Special Forces Command," are a fairly highly trained, multi-purpose unit capable of performing specialized operations like direct action, reconnaissance, counter-terrorism, hostage rescue, and foreign internal defense. They are considered by some to be one of the top special forces units in the world, with a reported force size of around 14,000 personnel, organized into brigades with the capacity to scale operations depending on the mission requirements. TURKISH MILITARY INDUSTRIAL CAPABILITIES This has been a disappointment generally. The government of Türkiye has had to import a lot of arms and equipment from foreign partners. The lone bright spot has been on drone production. However, as noted above Türkiye has announced that it will begin to increase its ship building capabilities including attempting to build its own aircraft carrier domestically. In addition, the slow crawl of delivering a main battle tank of its own design and production has been frustrating to Türkiye. Türkiye is clearly trying to build its own domestic capabilities… and it needs to in order to make it to the next level. DEMOGRAPHICS  In 2023, Türkiye’s total fertility rate (TFR) was 1.994 children per woman, which is below the replacement level of 2.1. This is a significant drop from 2001, when the TFR was 2.38. However, recently, reports have stated that current fertility rate for Turkey in 2024 is 1.980 births per woman. This is closer to the needed 2.1 replacement rate. The fertility rate for Turkey in 2023 was 1.994 births per woman, a 0.85% decline from 2022. The fertility rate for Turkey in 2022 was 2.011 births per woman, a 0.84% decline from 2021. So yes, they are below the replacement rate but not to the degree that Germany's total fertility rate (TFR) in 2024 is 1.35 children per woman or China's total fertility rate (TFR) in 2024 is estimated to be 1.55 children per woman or Taiwan at 1.11. In 2023, Türkiye’s population growth rate was 1.1‰, which is an all-time low. This is down from 7.1‰ in 2022 and 14.7‰ in 2018. In 2024, Türkiye’s age structure was estimated to be 21.7% for ages 0–14, 68.6% for ages 15–64, and 9.6% for ages 65 and over. The median age was estimated to be 34 years old which is much better than a lot of countries. ECONOMICS In brief, Türkiye’s economy is the 17th largest in the world, with a GDP of $1.024 trillion as of 2023. It is a member of the OECD and the G20. Turkey's economy grew 4.5% in 2023, down from 5.5% in 2022. Türkiye’s GDP growth in 2024 is projected to be between 3% and 3.5%. Türkiye’s biggest trade partners are the European Union (EU) (31.8%), China (12.4%), Russia (12.6%), the United States (2nd largest export partner), and Switzerland (5.5%). Türkiye’s economy is made up of a mix of modern industry, agriculture, and services, with the service sector being the largest contributor to GDP. It is located between Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East, and is close to key export markets. It has a large internal domestic market with good rates of consumerism. Türkiye has a young population and an educated workforce. Türkiye has a highly developed technological infrastructure in transportation, telecommunications, and energy sectors. Türkiye has attracted $262 billion in foreign investment since 2003. In fall 2022, inflation reached 85.5%, the highest rate in two decades. A significant increase to the minimum wage in 2024 has contributed to the recent inflation. The Turkish lira has hit record low levels. The central bank's low-interest policy to stimulate borrowing and investment has led to a strong depreciation in the value of the lira. Türkiye is dependent on imported energy and intermediate goods. Türkiye has a high level of short-term private external debt and low level of gross international reserves. The Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom ranks Türkiye 102 out of more than 180 economies.  Corruption in Turkey poses a significant challenge to its bid for European Union membership. According to Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index, which ranks 180 countries based on perceived public sector corruption (from 0 as highly corrupt to 100 as very honest), Turkey’s score has steadily declined. Since the index adopted its current scale in 2012, Turkey’s score has dropped from a high of 50 in 2013 to a low of 34 in 2023, indicating a worsening perception of corruption. In 2023, Turkey ranked 115th globally, well below the average score of 43. Regionally, within Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Turkey’s score also trails behind the average of 35 and the region’s highest score of 53, emphasizing the need for improvement. Some have pointed to low productivity growth, weakening foreign direct investment, credit-driven growth performance, and Inefficient monetary policy as headwinds for Türkiye. CONCLUSION  In conclusion, Türkiye’s ascent reflects a nation that has strategically invested in its defense, economic stability, and demographic resilience. With the unveiling of the TAI Kaan fighter jet, Türkiye signals its intent to join the global elite of military technology, bolstered by a robust armed forces structure that includes a potent navy and capable special forces. Economically, while challenges like inflation and currency depreciation persist, Türkiye’s advantageous location, young population, and industrial growth support its ambitions on the world stage. As Türkiye continues to expand its domestic capabilities and modernize its military infrastructure, it is positioning itself not only as a formidable regional power but as an influential player in both NATO and the broader geopolitical landscape. The road ahead will require balancing internal economic pressures with its ambition for military self-sufficiency and global stature, but Türkiye’s progress thus far suggests a commitment to overcoming these challenges. 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